The Patriots are, for the first time in a while, not the favorites to win the division.  With Moss aging, Welker’s return questionable at best for week one, and a scattered backfield there has been little improvement since last year. With that said, it is still Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show so there is no cause for concern.  Brady will not be breaking any of his own touchdown records this season, but the deep ball will remain a huge part of the offense and Moss will still be the guy catching them.  Until Welker is back there will be a drop off in the production of the offensive players, but there is no cause for concern.  As far as running backs are concerned, Maroney is the safest bet, but it will likely be done by committee.

Top Fantasy Players

Tom Brady – Brady has not declined at all, just his supporting cast.  He will find an open guy as always so draft Brady with confidence.

Randy Moss – Moss is getting older, and is not quite the same as he used to be. However, he is still among the best in the league and will have a very productive year. I rank Moss 3^rd among receivers at this time.

Wes Welker – Most of the news from the Patriots since the draft has been regarding Welker’s return to practice and drills.  While it is possible that he is ready to go by week one, it seems unlikely that they would rush him back so quickly.  Welker will have great value as a mid round pick this year.  When he returns he will see double digit targets again, you can be sure of that.

No Comments »

The Miami Dolphins are a franchise on the rise.  They saw great progress with Chad Henne last season, and still have a tough punishing running game.  Tony Sporano has done what ever is necessary to keep his team competitive and he has done a great job thus far.  This off season has been no different with signing two particularly big name players in Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby.  They did lose Jason Taylor, but their biggest issue is at outside linebacker.  Many people are questioning the RB duo that has been nothing short of spectacular when healthy, but I am not one of those people.  In the mock drafts that I have done thus far Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have fallen quite far and have been great value picks.

Top Fantasy Players:

Chad Henne – I really like Henne as a backup QB this year and potential sleeper.  If you are in a position on draft day where you can’t get one of the top 5 or so QBs then you should target this 2^nd year QB in later rounds.

Brandon Marshall – Marshall is one hell of an athlete, and while his hip injury situation is a concern as far as career longevity is concerned, it will not be an issue this season.  I do not value Marshall as high as others do, because despite the fact that I think Henne will continue getting better that is a gamble.

Ronnie Brown – No surprise here, Brown is the feature back and takes snaps in the Wildcat offense.  Look for another great season from Brown and hopefully he’ll stay healthy which is all that can stop him.

Ricky Williams – He wont have quite the same explosiveness of the past few seasons due to aging, but his time off earlier in his career has done him well and he will remain one of the most productive backup running backs in the league.

No Comments »

My Buffalo Bills are a team in disarray. However, new coach Chan Gailey is an offensive minded coach adept at devising a scheme to suit the talent on the field.  The two most obvious needs for this team after last season were quarterback and left tackle.  Now that the draft and the majority of free agency are over, the most obvious needs that the team has left are at… Quarterback and left tackle.  Trent Edwards is the presumptive starter for the beginning of the season until Coach Gailey tells us different, but we should not be surprised to see Brian Brohm or maybe even Ryan Fitzpatrick under center before long if Edwards is not producing wins.

Top Fantasy Players:

Fred Jackson – Jackson gets better with each carry that he receives, while the backfield is a bit crowded Jackson could end up being a solid RB2 option or at worst a flex play.

CJ Spiller – Spiller was hands down the most explosive offensive player in this years draft and Ralph Wilson has already anointed him the savior of the team.  Spiller will be a very versatile tool for Chan Gailey to use. Even with a small number of offensive touches, his use in the return game make him a decent flex option in 12 team leagues.

Lee Evans – Evans would be a stud WR on a team with a good offense, but in Buffalo he will be a flex option.

1 Comment »

Welcome to the 2010 Fantasy Football preseason! I am officially declaring it started!  I will be previewing every team in the league. This week belongs to the AFC East and I am starting with the Buffalo Bills. This is not a biased decision, I promise.  I did it alphabetically.

This division is fast becoming the most competitive in the AFC.  Every team is getting better… except the Bills.  My favorite to take the division is the Jets but I would not be surprised if both AFC wild card spots were filled by the Dolphins and the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

No Comments »

Round One
Pick 1 (1) – Chris Johnson: CJ has an absurd mix of power and speed that makes him a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  A guy his size and speed should have trouble between the tackles, but as he proved last season he does not.

Pick 2 (2) – Adrian Peterson: The emergence of Chris Johnson is not why I rank Peterson at number two.  Peterson is in my opinion the most complete running back in the league, but has had some issues with fumbles and is seeing fewer touchdowns with Favre pulling the trigger.

Pick 3 (3) – Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD has a similar skill set to Johnson, but has a bit of trouble running up the middle.  He is a very capable goal line back due to his elusiveness, but does not have the supporting cast to have a breakout year.

Pick 4 (4) – Frank Gore: The Niners had an excellent draft, they appear to be lining up behind Alex Smith and opted to bolster their offensive line in a big way with Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati.  Iupati is one of the most athletic guards I have seen come out of college in a while and will do an excellent job pulling to seal the corner for Gore this year.  The Niners also appear to have rededicated themselves to a physical smash mouth style that matches their coach Mike Singletary.

Pick 5 (5) – Ray Rice: This guy came out of nowhere, and I do not expect him to be the next Matt Forte at all.  Until draft day Rice was my number four back.  After adding a deep threat and much needed talent at the WR position with Anquan Boldin, the Ravens ensured that they will still see consistent production from Rice.  It will be exceedingly difficult to stack eight in the box to stop this guy.

Pick 6 (6) – Michael Turner: Turner has dropped a fair few spots from last season, but it has little to do with him.  The emergence of the 49ers and Ravens on the offensive side of the ball are the primary reasons why Turner is not fourth on this list.  The injury at the end of last year certainly does not help, but I’m not going to downgrade him for it until he proves it was not an isolated incident.

Pick 7 (7) – Ronnie Brown: The Dolphins have a more balanced attack now with Marshall at wide receiver, but Henne is still unproven and the one-two punch of Brown Williams is still going to be the driving force of this offense.  Brown could see better productivity with a passing game to balance the defense.

Pick 8 (8) – Drew Brees: Yes, the Saints lost some talent on both sides of the ball, but regardless of the situation the only player that was always are the center of their success was Brees.  He repeatedly rallied the Saints whether it be the fourth quarter of a game, or after losing to the lowly Buccaneers, and then needing to make a playoff run.

Pick 9 (9) – Andre Johnson: The Texans have their issues, and it is impossible to know what Coach Kubiak is thinking when he puts Arian Foster or Ryan Moats on the field instead of Steve Slaton.  With that said they are a playoff caliber team with a very efficient passing game.  Johnson is the most consistent receiver in fantasy football.

Pick 10 (10) – DeAngelo Williams: With the question at quarter back and the best tandem of running backs in the league to lean on you can expect the Panthers to do just that.  Use the talent at the Running Back position to develop either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen into their Quarterback of the future.

Pick 11 (11) – Steven Jackson: He may be on the decline, but during a 1-15 season Jackson played through injury and was there for every game giving all the effort he had.  He can still be my  first round pick without a doubt.

Pick 12 (12) – Rashard Mendenhall: It is worth noting that the option of taking Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning was available, but you cannot snub the RB position like that with the last pick. Mendenhall is likely to see an increased workload during Big Ben’s suspension, and he will remain the feature back the rest of the season.

Round 2
Pick 13 (12) – Reggie Wayne: This is the only wide receiver on the best passing offense in the AFC that we know their spot on the depth chart.  Whether Gonzalez or Garcon gets the number two job is still unknown and very possibly subject to change.  Wayne has been with Manning for a long time and has developed into an elite receiver.

Pick 14 (11) – Aaron Rodgers: If you’re scratching your head, then you need to look at the stats from the last two seasons.  Rodgers is likely going to be the highest scoring fantasy QB this season, but Brees is likely to have more passing yards.

Pick 15 (10) – Peyton Manning: Comes down to Moss or Manning here, and with Brady and the Patriots on the decline, Manning is the safe pick and the right one here.

Pick 16 (9) – Ryan Grant: Not taking a running back in the first round means you have to take the best one available to you in the second.

Pick 17 (8) – Cedric Benson: Carson Palmer finally has the best receiving core of his career, and he can’t use it because his career is over.  Benson will see 30 carries a game this year just like last year, as long as he is healthy.

Pick 18 (7) – Randy Moss: Despite his teams fall from the elite, they are still a Playoff quality team with great coaching, and more than enough experience to make a deep playoff run.

Pick 19 (6) – Pierre Thomas: Bush will never be an every down back, and Bell is not there to vulture red zone touches.

Pick 20 (5) – Miles Austin: Austin’s productivity was among the best last season, and considering he did not even start until week 5.  I would hardly be surprised if Austin ended up the top fantasy WR by the end of the season.

Pick 21 (4) – Shonn Greene: The Jets showed that they trust and believe in this young guy the way they used him in the playoffs.  Since Rex Ryan has yet to make a decision that didn’t work out for him, I am going to trust him.

Pick 22 (3) – Tom Brady: Brady has not fallen off.  It took a little to recover from his season long injury, but he’s back.  The difference is the team around him is not as good as it has been.

Pick 23 (2) – Larry Fitzgerald: Larry is still the most talented wide receiver in the league, and it only takes one play for a receiver to have a good day for you.  Fitz will remain a red zone matchup nightmare.

Pick 24 (1) – Joseph Addai: Towards the end of his career, but not there yet.  He will not have quite the year he did last year but he should be close.

Round 3
Pick 25 (1) – Vincent Jackson
Pick 26 (2) – Phillip Rivers
Pick 27 (3) – Roddy White
Pick 28 (4) – Matt Schaub
Pick 29 (5) – Beanie Wells
Pick 30 (6) – Tony Romo
Pick 31 (7) – Jamaal Charles
Pick 32 (8) – Ryan Matthews
Pick 33 (9) – Clinton Portis
Pick 34 (10) – LeSean McCoy
Pick 35 (11) – Ricky Williams
Pick 36 (12) – Joe Flacco

No Comments »

Now that the draft has ended, you will be able to do the following things:

•      Add and drop players
•      Set your weekly lineup
•      View the schedule of your opponents
•      View the league’s standings

First of all, let’s discuss adding and dropping players. As stated above, this can be done in a couple of different ways. The fairest and most common method is what is called waivers. This a method of allowing everyone in the league a chance to make a claim for a player, and after a certain amount of time, the player with the highest waiver priority that made a claim gets the player. This is where it gets a little tricky; waiver priority is decided (primarily) in one of two ways. The first way is after each week, the player last in the overall league standings has the highest priority, and the player first in the standings has the lowest waiver priority. The other way to handle waivers is to start the beginning of the season in reverse draft order, and then when someone makes a claim off waivers they become the lowest priority. (Note, this is how it works throughout the course of the week for the first waivers system however with this method the priority would not reset from week to week.) You should be adding players to improve your team wherever possible. Many people think that if their team is winning or doing ok they shouldn’t try to fix what is not broken, however that truism does not apply here. Making smart and responsible waiver claims on a weekly basis can help you make the playoffs, or can help you win in the playoffs. Have any of you heard of Miles Austin?

The next thing to worry about is setting your lineup. This and making roster moves go hand in hand, when a starting player is on bye week or injured you do not always have a capable backup ready to go. While the core of your lineup may not change on a week to week basis, this does not mean that the 2nd or 3rd players at running back or wide receiver should not be changing. If you have done a good job drafting and managing your roster then you should have multiple options each week for some positions. The following is a breakdown of what you are looking for and should expect from each position on your team:

QB: The quarterback position is important, but not crucial. Unlike real football, you can have a weak player at QB and still be successful. A typical game for a QB is 200 yards or so and 2 touchdowns. For this position look for consistency rather than potential for a big game.

RB: The running back position is the most important by far. Just about every team in the league strives for a consistent and effective running game, and a good portion of teams have one feature back that will touch the ball 20-30 times each week. Because of the large number of touches that a feature back will see, they are a threat to score large points every week. In addition if they are the primary short yardage running back, they will see the goal line touches as well.

WR: The ranking of wide receivers varies significantly from week to week. This is not typically the case for most elite receivers, but for most all of them it is. The position is not known for its consistency, and the rankings are often heavily impacted by the quality of the opposing defense. The wide receiver position is one of the most difficult to predict, however with the nature of the passing game big game potential is a big factor when choosing who to start.

TE: The tight end position is very difficult to predict, when considering matchup your primary concern is the opposing defense’s linebackers and to a lesser extent safeties. With that said Tight Ends are a relief valve for their QB and adept and creating mismatches in the passing game. Play the most talented guy you have at the position and do not over think it.

K: Kickers are realistically not all that important. When deciding which kicker to draft, try to pick one that is on a team with a good offense. This will ensure that there are more opportunities to get opportunities for your kicker.

D/ST: The Defense and Special Teams unit is a pretty important spot on your team. Consistency is essential at this position. The Steelers, Vikings, and Ravens are very possibly the best three fantasy defenses of the decade because of their ability to stop the run and rush the passer. Each of these teams has had a LONG streak of games without allowing a 100 yard rusher.

Preparing for the Playoffs

As the end of the season rolls around, you are in one of three scenarios. The first of which is that you have done pretty poorly this year, and have no mathematical chance to make the playoffs. In this scenario the wrong thing to do is to ignore your team and stop setting your lineup. This will destroy the integrity of the league, you need to remain active in free agency and embrace the role of spoiler. No one should make the playoffs because you started an injured quarterback while you weren’t paying attention and gave someone a free win.

The second scenario is that you are still in the running but have not secured your spot yet. This is the most common scenario and whether you are on the outside looking in or clinging to the one of the last spots available, your strategy will not change. Every game is a must win. Each week you do whatever is necessary to win the next game. You can’t win in the playoffs if you do not make it there, pick up any backups that are starting for one week if need be. If your opponent has a high scoring team you need to take some chances with sleepers.

The third scenario is that you have secured your spot in the playoffs, and you have the chance to use the waiver wire to improve your chances in the playoffs. At the end of the season a new term gets used in fantasy football, it’s the word “handcuff”. A handcuff is a backup at a position with a stud player. By picking up backups to your own best players you ensure productivity even in the event of an injury. Also, be on the lookout for backups that are very talented that may not be able to see the carries from the number two spot to be super productive. This past season the handcuffs that paid off due to injury were Ricky Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Another great example was Chester Taylor as a handcuff to Adrian Peterson. Taylor is a very skilled back capable of handling a feature back’s workload.

That’s all for the regular season, just the playoffs left!

No Comments »