Week 16 Preview: Key Matchups and Their Fantasy Relevance

Saints at Falcons

This week’s Monday night game has been circled as the game of the season on my calendar since shortly after the Falcons went on the road to the Superdome to beat the Saints in week 3.  Going into this season many people (including myself) expected the Falcons to be a playoff team, but few expected them to be the class of the NFC.  Their dominance in front of their home crowd has been incredible and if they can manage one last home-win against the defending super bowl champion, the Falcons will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This would make them the heavy favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Saints are playing for their last chance to reclaim the division title, but in order to do this the Falcons would need to lose both this week and in week 17 at home against the 2-12 Panthers.  After watching the Falcons defeat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, I am a firm believer in their ability to beat ANYONE inside the Georgia Dome and I expect them to earn a narrow victory this week.  There is one thing that I am 100% positive of, this will be a great game and a must-see for every football fan.  Neither team has a stellar defense and all fantasy-relevant players are must-starts for this potential shoot out.  Matt Ryan, because he is playing at home, found his way into my top 10 QBs this week and considering my playoff philosophy of down grading the impact of match-ups and playing the more trusted and safe option… this is a big show of my confidence in him.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were a team in disarray, their offense was inept and there seemed to be a lack of play makers to step up and lead by example on the field.  Last week, Mark Sanchez led the Jets to a confidence-building win over AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The health of Sanchez is in question and it is looking as though he will be a game time decision, but for me it does not affect anyone’s fantasy value.  I do not trust Braylon Edwards in the playoffs against such a quality defense and Santonio Holmes remains the only Jet who I feel is worth a start in standard leagues.  Earlier in the season LaDainian Tomlinson WAS the difference maker for this offense, but due to his age he has slowed down and considering he has not scored a rushing TD since week 6, it is apparent that he is unable to fulfill this role any longer.  Now, in order to be the Super Bowl contender they were hoping to be earlier this year, they will need to look to their younger talent.

The Bears are division champions in their first year with offensive coordinator Mike Martz and their defense has quietly been one the best in the league.  They face another of the league’s best defenses and have a QB known for his poor decision making abilities.  The only Chicago player worth starting for fantasy-owners is Matt Forte but as I said in my Hate list yesterday, you should not expect a big game from him.  I think the Bears win this defensive battle, because they are a more balanced team and have bigger individual play makers on defense.  Julius Peppers is who I believe makes the difference in this game as he has done all season long for the Bears.

Colts at Raiders

All is right with the world, the Colts are back on top of their division.  They will need to finish the remainder of the season without Austin Collie due to his third head injury of the season and they will be a lesser offense because of it.  Joseph Addai is finally back to full participation in practice and appears to be a sure thing to start against a weak Raiders run defense.  He has missed enough time that I do not expect him to be featured as the lead back quite yet, but he will likely split carries with Donald Brown and make both of them too risky to start for fantasy-owners.  Reggie Wayne remains a top 10 WR this week despite facing Nnamdi Asomugha who, unlike Darelle Revis, does not typically shadow the opponent’s top receiver for the entire game.

The Raiders have been a surprising team this season.  Despite a mid-season QB controversy, the Raiders have found their way to 7-7 with a 5-0 record against divisional opponents. Because of this division record, they are heavily favored in tie-breakers and should find their way into the post season if they win these last two games.  They match up well against the Colts with their strong running game led by Darren McFadden, who is having a breakout, Pro Bowl caliber season.  Recently they have been trying to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Jacoby Ford, who has been a dynamic play maker in a variety of ways on both offense and special teams.  Being the playoffs however, Run DMC (McFadden) is the only player worth the risk in this game which I believe the Colts will win by a VERY narrow margin.

Giants at Packers

The Packers narrowly missed upsetting the New England Patriots last week with backup QB Matt Flynn in command of their offense.  Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go this week after his concussion that he suffered in week 14.  He faces one of the league’s best pass rushes, but this is one of the best passing attacks in the league and we can expect big statistical performances from both Rodgers and his top receiver, Greg Jennings. Green Bay has been hindered this season by their lack of a running game, but have been able to remain consistent for fantasy-owners despite this short-coming.  I do like the Packers to win this game, but I fear for their ability to succeed in the playoffs without a more balanced offense.

Last week the Giants suffered a demoralizing loss at the hands of Michael Vick and the Eagles.  This week they will have trouble against one of the best and most explosive offenses the NFC has to offer this week against the Packers.  Eli Manning has had a lot of issues with turnovers this season and his ability to minimize them in this game will be the deciding factor.  The Giants success lies in the hands of their running game, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs sharing the load.  They were not able to close-out the win last week and I expect the turnover problems to persist after the emotionally unsettling loss last week.  Because of that, I believe the Giants will lose this game, but it will be a close and well fought game!