Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Week	Completions	Yards	TDs
1	5	75	1
2	3	66	1
7	4	50	0
8	9	85	0
TOTAL	21	276	2

Games without Matt Moore at QB

Week	Completions	Yards	TDs
3	3	22	0
4	2	11	0
9*	1	9	0
10	3	47	0
11	4	46	0
12	2	33	0
13	3	54	0
14	2	17	0
15	2	22	0
16	3	17	0
TOTAL	26	278	0

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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So I want to start with two quick digressions.  The first is a quick apology for my lack of posts so far this off season, I was finishing my college degree and now that that has been accomplished and I will be posting regularly again.  The second is that I am not an NFL draft analyst and do not even play one on TV, so these are just my quick observations about what I saw when watching the offensive players workouts.   Feel free to leave a comment or find me on twitter for my opinion on the defensive workouts.

Quarterbacks

I was very excited to see this combine because of the skill and athleticism of the QB class with Blaine Gabbert being the only one to not throw in the positional drills. After the drills were completed, I was left wanting more because almost all of the QB’s seemed to struggle with their accuracy and consistency.  After re-watching the workouts I realized that a fair amount of this is not the fault of the QBs themselves. When throwing at the scouting combine, the QBs are told to throw to a spot… NOT to complete the pass. This is a difficult thing for players to do because it goes against what they have done their entire lives.  Also, the receivers make the QBs look bad.  In a few drills, the receivers were running bad routes and this is what I believe led a lot of people to heavily criticize Cam Newton’s throwing performance.

Speaking of Cam, as I am a native Buffalonian and most of the mock drafts released have placed Newton with the Bills at the third pick, I paid close attention to what Cam was able to accomplish this past week.  The first thing that stood out to me was that he beat Tim Tebow’s broad jump and 40 yard dash times from last year.  Cam posted a 4.58 forty yard dash to go with his 10’6” broad jump and really demonstrated his explosiveness and acceleration off the line.  Also, in his 3-cone drill, he covered 5 yards in just two steps which further demonstrates his explosiveness when he decides to run.  For the reasons discussed above, I do not discredit Cam due to his inaccurate throws, because the 2 or so truly errant balls were balanced by the touch and placement he showed me on some of his deep throws.  I have not made up my mind whether I want him leading my team or if I think he can be successful at the pro level, but that should become clear in his fast approaching pro day.

Jake Locker quietly had an outstanding day as many of his measurables actually matched up very well against Cam who was thought to be the most physically gifted of the class.  Ricky Stanzi was the biggest winner of all the QBs at the combine however, because of his incredible performance throwing the ball in the on-field drills.  He seemed to be by far the most prepared and the only one that was actually throwing to a spot as he was instructed.  On the 10 yard out routes, he released the ball when his back foot planted and did not wait for the receiver to make his break.  He did what the scouts wanted to see, delivered an accurate ball on a timing route to a spot where it would not be intercepted.  Most all of his passes fell incomplete, but again that is not his fault and his new team will be able to find receivers that can get to where they are supposed to be.  Stanzi has plenty of inconsistencies in his game, but he looks like a pro QB and if he can spend a few years behind the right tutor… we should see this guy as a starter in the NFL.

Wide Receivers

The breakout player of the receiving corp is a no brainer and I suspect you have already heard plenty about his day in Indianapolis. Julio Jones had an absurd day.  WITH a broken foot, Julio had an 11’3” broad jump and 4.39 forty yard dash.  These numbers were not expected from a healthy Jones and while he did not pass AJ Green on many people’s draft boards because of a good shorts and t-shirt work out, he did ensure that he will be a top 15 pick and personally I think he will go to St Louis with the 14th pick at the latest.  Other very real possibilities before the 14th selection are Cleveland or Washington if Green does not fall to them as both are in dire need of a top receiver.

Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh is a big and physical receiver who was not expected to run exceptionally fast, but with a 4.5 forty yard dash he showed that he has the ability to separate from defensive backs as well as out jump them.  He will develop into an NFL caliber player and he reminds me a lot of Hakeem Nicks.  Another guy who improved his stock this past week was Randall Cobb.  While watching the workouts I heard the comparison to Brad Smith and while I wouldn’t go that far… I will say that he is a very versatile player and will certainly be used by a creative offensive coordinator somewhere.  Honestly, I think he compares better with Joshua Cribbs, who never really turned into a quality wide-out… but is one hell of a kick returner.

Running Back

Apart from Mark Ingram, this year’s running back class is pretty shallow.  Ingram did nothing to hurt his draft status in my eyes at the combine, but I was a little disappointed with his forty yard dash time.  He more than made up for his average time with an incredibly fast 10 yard split and he also displayed an aggression in his running style that solidify him as the only clear-cut first round running back.  Dion Lewis was the biggest winner among RBs as his acceleration and lateral burst were on display during on-field drills.  Another quick back that made a splash was Jacquizz Rodgers, who had a weak 40 yard dash time.  While each of these backs are unlikely to get taken in the first round, they will be a value deeper in the draft and able to make an impact for their new teams in the return game as well as being a change of pace runner.

There was one very interesting player that is not likely to be taken early at all but has a TON of upside, despite not being often talked about and that is Allen Bradford from USC.  Bradford was an after thought for the Trojan’s offense until the last game of his college career, when he saw 28 touches for 212 yards.  He is a big back at over 240 lbs, but actually ran a faster forty than Jacquizz at 4.56 seconds and lifted 225 lbs 28 times.  Look for a team to take a late-round flyer on him after the impact that LeGarrette Blount (another quick yet big RB) had as an undrafted rookie.

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