Part 4: The Playoffs

The key to success in the playoffs is preparation and conservative decision making.  In the previous part to this series I discussed “handcuffs” and how they are crucial to playoff success.  This is true because of inevitability and unpredictable nature of injuries.  Of course certain players are injury prone and should be devalued for that reason, but like everything else in football… anything can happen (or not happen for that matter). This is especially true come the end of the season when players start to wear down physically.

In order to know how many teams make the playoffs in your league, you will need to see your league’s commissioner at the beginning of the season. The playoffs are typically taking place in the last 2, 3, or 4 weeks of the NFL regular season.  In most leagues the last week of the regular season (week 17) is not used for the super bowl, week 16 is.  This is done to ensure that nobody loses their fantasy league super bowl because a feature player on a team that has already clinched a playoff birth is being sat by their NFL team. Peyton Manning owners can attest to this frustration as the Colts are notorious for resting players late in the year.

In leagues where 6 teams qualify for the playoffs, three weeks would be needed so the playoffs would take place in weeks 14, 15 and 16.  In this scenario the top two ranked teams would have a bye in week 14.  Pairings are typically handled just like the NFL playoffs, with the top ranked team playing the lowest ranked team and so on down the line.

For all my playoff decisions, I try to imagine how I would feel a month after if I made the wrong decision.  It is impossible to make the right choice all the time, thats the beauty of this game, anyone can lose any given week.  I just try and make sure I won’t hate myself for making the wrong decision, should it backfire.  For example, you are a Peyton Manning owner and it is week 16.  The Colts cannot improve their playoff standing at all over the next two games and declare that they plan to only use their starters for the first half of the game.  You now need to make a decision about whether half a game from the best QB in the league is better than a full game from your backup ranked 17th on my player rankings.  My general thought is that Manning is likely to get two TDs anyways and far less likely to throw multiple interceptions.  It might cost you a few points in yardage, but by playing it safe you give your team the best chance to win.  Also, you won’t often be upset with yourself for trusting Peyton in the Super Bowl… win or lose.

Thats all the advice I have for you, please keep an eye open for upcoming eBooks, blog posts and as always, I answer every last question that I have time to… so don’t be shy.

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The NFL draft is coming up quickly now and its time I release my first mock draft of the year.  I have spent a lot more time agonizing about how the top 10 picks will go, since my Bills hold the number 3 pick overall and I truly think (unless free agency gets started after the April 6^th court date) I have a pretty decent grasp as to how it will go:

Blaine Gabbert, 1^st overall pick, Carolina - It is time to tear it all down and rebuild in Carolina.  Their new coach, Ron Rivera, has just left an offense with Phillip Rivers and I don’t think he has any interest in trying to further develop Jimmy Clausen.  Cam Newton has been talked about as having the talent to go here, but there is too much to risk with the number 1 pick and Gabbert is the safest QB on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers take Patrick Peterson with this pick either, but their biggest need (QB) would still need to be addressed and when you have the top pick, it becomes very difficult to pass on someone as well-rounded as Gabbert.

Marcell Dareus, 2^nd overall pick, Denver – The Broncos rush defense has been a mess for the past few seasons.  They still have a pretty good secondary, but have fallen short of the playoffs due to abysmal d-line play for two seasons now.  Marcell Dareus is a beast of a DT and can play in just about any technique the Broncos could dream to use him in.  When looking at tape on Dareus, I can’t help but be reminded of Warren Sapp.  To me, Dareus is the best prospect available in the draft and considering DT is hands down the biggest need for the Broncos, I just don’t see him going anywhere else.

Cam Newton, 3^rd overall pick, Buffalo – As a native to Buffalo and a die-hard Bills fan, believe me when I say that the Bills need to find a way to excite their fan base.  The search for Dick Jauron’s replacement was cut short when GM Buddy Nix and owner Ralph Wilson found Chan Gailey.  Time has shown to me that this was the correct move, but at the time it was a bit of a let-down to not see Buffalo make a serious bid for a headline coach.  Now that Gailey is running the show, I expect him to get his QB with the number 3 pick due to the immense upside that comes with Newton. Gailey used to coach Kordell “Slash” Stewart in Pittsburgh and is widely known for building a scheme around the talents of his QB.  While I am not convinced that Cam is destined for greatness, there are few Coaches out there better suited to maximize his potential.  QB is not the only need Buffalo has, but with no sure-fire left tackle at the top of the draft, Chan will take his franchise QB while he still has time to develop him left on his contract.

Robert Quinn, 4^th overall pick, Cincinnati – Despite the uncertainty at QB and WR for the Bengals, they are about to embrace their identity as a run-first offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals could use some help rushing the passer.  With medical issues still encircling Da’Quan Bowers, the Bengals will take a compliment to Carlos Dunlap and solidify both DE spots with Robert Quinn from UNC.  This could change easily if Dareus, Gabbert or Newton are still on the board… but as I see things, the Bengals will not have a crack at those three guys and they don’t have much need for Vonn Miller or Patrick Peterson.

Vonn Miller, 5^th overall pick, Arizona – The Cardinals are a team that is built to win now.  They are in the softest division in the league and have no one capable of playing the Quarterback position.  I expect them to attack the free agent market and find a more seasoned QB like Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, or even Marc Bulger… which leaves them free to take the best player available for their defense.  I still can’t quite decide if that will be Patrick Peterson or Vonn Miller, but the best pure pass rusher in the draft is difficult to pass up.

A.J. Green, 6^th overall pick, Cleveland – The Browns have been in need of a playmaking WR since losing Braylon Edwards.  They have had bigger needs (like at QB) the past few years, but with Colt McCoy ready to take the starting job… he is going to need a decent target.  Green is the big playmaker that McCoy will need in order to flourish as a starting QB in a division with the Steelers and Ravens defenses.  Other possibilities are Robert Quinn (if he falls this far) or Da’Quan Bowers (if he is able to alleviate injury concerns at his pro day).

Patrick Peterson, 7^th overall pick, San Francisco – The 49ers have a new head coach, who will be looking to rebuild the team in his own image.  With the 7^th pick in the draft there are a lot of options for Jim Harbaugh.  But, with the elite QB talent gone, look for San Fran to take the best player available in LSU’s Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a shut down corner and by adding him, the 9ers maintain the best defense in their division (at least in my opinion). As far as other options, look for San Fran to take the top player available at the time… regardless of position.

Nick Fairley, 8^th overall pick, Tennessee – The Titans need a QB, but without an elite option left on the board I expect the Titans to fill the hole left by the departure of Albert Haynesworth.  Few head coaches understand the importance of offensive and defensive line play better than Mike Munchak and with a talent like Fairley available at a position of need for his team, expect the Titans to take their new DT.  Other possibilities include a QB or DE, but if the top 10 picks go at all like I expect, Fairley will be a great bargain.

Anthony Castonzo, 9^th overall pick, Dallas – The Cowboys have a pretty substantial need for a right tackle and Castonzo is, in my opinion, the only top 10 talent at the position.  I always envisioned him more at left tackle, but if they can figure out their offensive line issues, the Cowboys should go straight back to being a playoff team next season.  Other possibilities are fellow tackles Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, or CB Prince Amukamara.

Julio Jones, 10^th overall pick, Washington – The Redskins confuse the hell out of me at the moment.  I am unsure why Shanahan does not like Donovan McNabb, but assuming there is a QB he is comfortable with in place by the start of the season… he is going to need someone to throw to.  Santana Moss had a nice run, but it is time to pick the new long term deep threat for this offense.  Other options are DE Aldon Smith or any QBs that Shanahan decides he can mold into a starter in the NFL.

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