2011 Draft Analysis by Position: Running Backs
This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years. While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.
The First Seven
As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs. Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance. Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down. Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league. I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall. Logic is bound to prevail I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value. This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense. Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season. In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value. New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format. Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner. I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.
The Top 20
Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson. Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season. MJD slid to 9th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run. LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues. Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense. Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense. Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion. I have him at 16th. He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury. All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work. Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries. Definitely not on the goal line though.
Backups and Flex Options
This is where I do not want to pick many running backs. The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven. The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene. He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role. I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23rd and 21st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush. Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload. I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play. Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2. I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again. Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29th in the rankings. I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.
Sleepers
Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee
Busts
Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram
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