Week 3 Betting Lines

The Lines

1:00

At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco

New England -9 At Buffalo

At New Orleans -4 Houston

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants

At Cleveland -2.5 Miami

At Tennessee -7 Denver

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville

4:00

At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City

NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta

Arizona -3 At Seattle

Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Hello everyone.  I’ve been tasked with doing a weekly write-up here on Starting Fantasy Lineup about my thoughts on the betting lines for each weeks games.  I’ll be giving you a few games I’ll be putting my own money on (literally) as well as a few games to be careful with and three games every week you should avoid like the plague.  I’ll also be tracking my success weekly with my games to keep an overall record by seasons end.  I’m available at @ErikTheLineMan on Twitter so if you have any questions about this or any weeks games, feel free to ask away and I’ll give you my thoughts.  I’ll also be submitting last minute line changes to the site so that you have an accurate look at what the point spreads are looking like just before kickoff.  Thanks, and I look forward to hopefully help you win some money!

I’M TAKING

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

It could be a long day for the Rams with the Ravens coming to town.  Although they came out flat on the road against Tennessee last week expect the veteran laden Ravens to show up in St. Louis with their hard hats ready to work.  I see the Ravens in line for a big day offensively, especially if Joe Flacco can find Lee Evans or Anquan Boldin open downfield as much as Hicks, Manningham and Hixon were in Week 2’s Monday Night game.  The Rams struggled against the relentless Giants pass rush and Bradford had trouble finding time to allow his receivers to get open against a horribly depleted Giants secondary.  He put up some decent yards but was pitiful inside the red zone excluding a BEAUTIFUL leaping catch by a much taller Denario Alexander, couldn’t get the ball across the goal line.  Week 3 does not bode much better for Bradford as Baltimore can bring the rush as well as any team in the league and Haloti Ngata and Co. do not allow much in the way of running room, especially in tight near the goal line.  Even if a banged up Steven Jackson returns he’s going to have a tough go of it.  If the line stays at Baltimore -6.5 or under by game time I’m banking on this game especially if it stays around -3.5 points.

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

Pittsburgh looked awful in a Week 1 blowout loss to the division rival Ravens, but bounced back in a big way in Week 2, albeit was to a Seahawks team that could easily go 2-14 in the worst division in football.  I think the Steelers game was a good tune-up opportunity for Big Ben and his boys to get things back on track and moving in the right direction.  They couldn’t have landed any better look at another win than playing a reeling Colts team in the dome in Indy.  The Steelers have 3 burners at WR and the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium makes for a perfect storm for Roethlisberger to chuck the ball all over the place.  I’m sure this is not the matchup the NFL Scheduling Department had in mind when Peyton Manning was to be the starter and it is going to be a painful game to watch Sunday night for Indy fans.   Indy’s playbook is a daunting read and asking anyone outside of Rainman to digest it in two or three weeks is downright impossible.  Kerry Collins has looked his age in both games so far and the fact he’s even playing should shed some light on the abilities of Curtis Painter and the little faith the Colts front office has in him.  I’m guessing a Steelers team fresh off a shutout is not what Kerry Collins was hoping for this weekend.   This game will be ugly and I think the Steelers win on the road and cover -10.5 in a laugher.

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

When was the last time Detroit was a road favorite?  My guess….probably sometime during the Clinton Administration when actually having talent was a requirement for television, but I digress.   Detroit looks be the real deal and on the brink of a breakout season.  With a healthy Matthew Stafford finally showing signs of why he was taken #1 overall in 2009 and the always dangerous Megatron, it appears this team could be a legit threat to the Pack for the division title and at the least a Wild Card team come January.  Keep in mind Stafford is the same quarterback that held the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie until Cam Newton’s week 1 performance and still holds the record for most TD’s in a game by a rookie QB with 5.  The kid can flat out play.  That’s to say nothing of the Ndamukong Suh led defense that is quickly becoming one of the most feared units in the NFC possibly behind only division rival Green Bay.  McNabb has lost more than a step as evidenced by the Vikes converting just one third down in the 2^nd half in the first two games (1 for 8).  Adrian Peterson can’t do it all, especially when McNabb can’t get out of his own way and teams stack 8 in the box.  Detroit covers -3.5.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Tony Romo suffered a cracked rib and punctured lung and still managed to come back and lead his team back to victory.  His status for Week 3 is clearly up in the air but I think John Kitna may be one of the best backup in the league as it means in regards to getting a win.  He looked good when called upon last week and had a decent season coming in after Romo broke his collarbone last year.  I think the Redskins are absolutely dreadful and I’m shocked they are sitting at 2-0.  Rex Grossman is a 5 INT game waiting to happen and he is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure which you know DeMarcus Ware & Co. are more than capable of bringing.  I’m just worried about the injuries to Romo, Miles Austin and the uncertain status of Dez Bryant.  I still think the Cowboys win this game but I’m just not sure they can cover -5.5 points with the injuries going on.  If the line drops a little lower I’d feel much better seeing them cover -3, but I still think you might be ok at -5.5 at home.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Philadelphia -5.5  NYG

Vick suffered a concussion last week against ATL and with the strict standards regarding concussions in the NFL the last few years Vick is going to be put through a barrage of tests to verify his safety before stepping out on the field Sunday. As of today’s writing (Wed 9/21) he had yet to take much less pass any of these tests.  The Eagles are “optimistic” he will start Sunday but if you take a team’s word at face value before the starting lineups have been submitted, you might need some crazy pills.  If Vick can’t go I see zero way Mike Kafka leads this team to a victory let alone cover -5.5 points.  If Vick does start the chances increase dramatically, even if he’s banged up.  But if you ask me, this paragraph contains WAY too many “ifs” and when it comes to betting that’s exactly the type of scenario you are looking to avoid. This game just has way too many question marks for me to feel safe about

At Cincinnati -2.5  San Francisco

Andy Dalton Vs. Alex Smith.  This game is going to be a QB lover’s wet dr….. Kidding of course.  This game is going to be a coin-toss plain and simple.  These two teams are just waaaay too up and (mostly) down to go anywhere near until further notice.  A recent history of ineptitude, Shaky QB’s and a lack of consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball for Cincy and San Francisco leave this game to be an absolute crapshoot.  Both teams have shown flashes this season, but almost always follow them up with head scratching plays.  I think SF is the better team, but there’s just no way to tell how this game ends and I want nothing to do with it.  I’m staying away and you should too.

At Cleveland -2.5  Miami

See above…..