Pickups

Javon Ringer, RB, TEN – Chris Johnson is clearly the bust of the 2011 season and the Titans seem to have caught on as well.  Ringer split carries evenly with CJ.5k as each back had 14.  Ringer was almost twice as productive on the ground and also out performed Johnson in the receiving game as well.  At this point I might rather own Ringer, but I truly believe that if you drafted Johnson you need to keep him and go down with the ship.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – I may have called the Decker vs. Thomas decision a little early. I am not going to make a sweeping declaration yet about who is the better play and the rankings of them in the future will be based off match up and how I think opposing defenses will treat each receiver. For now though, you should hope to use a different option even in your flex as Tebow really has not played very well over the two games he has started.

Reggie Bush, RB, MIA – This is very likely as good as it gets for Reggie this season but if you can put up over a hundred yards on fewer than 20 carries, you have my attention.  Bush is an underrated as an interior rusher but the issue is that Daniel Thomas is still better at it.  Bush needs to be owned after this performance and should make a decent flex play in the weeks that Thomas can not start.

Ben Obomanu, WR, SEA – Seattle has had their troubles and they certainly did continue in this game. One thing that can be said is that they were able to stretch the field vertically in the passing game. Obomanu and Rice were over 100 yards and Baldwin was over 70 as well.  The Seahawks are going to keep falling behind and the will have to pass. If Obamanu can keep getting open deep he will put up some decent numbers, even if it is in junk-time.

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Ponder did more than win this game, he played very well.  When you have a back like Adrian Peterson all you really need to do is manage the game and minimize mistakes. A missed field goal that would tie the game in the closing seconds does help but if your in a deep league or a 2 QB league, I think Ponder should be good for double digit fantasy points on a weekly basis.

Dump List

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – When Carolina gets to the goal line, they use Cam Newton or Jonathan Stewart. Williams got a big contract extension and really hasn’t been proving that he was worth it. He will need to start breaking off some big TD runs to be of much value to fantasy owners.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – Still owned in over 50% of leagues. Really people?

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Torain and the Redskins have had three pretty good match ups in a row and in these three weeks, Torain has totaled three fantasy points.  I will be ranking Helu highest of the three, but have no confidence in ANY Redskin apart from Fred Davis.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – He is still owned in about 25% of leagues and this is too much. With Fred Jackson playing out of his mind, there is no reason to expect Spiller to get on the field and be much of a factor.

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Question 1: Asked by @Dantvman

I need a flex between Decker, Walter, DeAngelo Williams and Maurice Morris.

Answer

For the sake of consistency I would start Morris.  With Best out he will see the most guaranteed touches of all your options and Denver has not been playing good defense.  Stafford is banged up and while I think he will play and play well, they should look to run to keep the pass rush and specifically Vonn Miller from getting to him more than is necessary.

Question 2: Asked by @DomWinder

I have Matt Cassel & Christian Ponder as bye week replacements for Aaron Rodgers, which one should I start?

Answer

I think this depends on the quality of your opponent.  If you are worried because he doesn’t have any bye week issues and you think you need to have a BIG week to win then go with the upside of Ponder.  Carolina’s defense has not played well at all this season and I think Ponder has a serious chance to have a big game.  Ponder did well last week and seemed to have a connection with Shiancoe, who he targeted 8 times.  If you are not concerned that you need that big game, then Cassel is a much more established QB and despite the bad match up, should do OK. The Chiefs offense has adapted to the loss of Charles and found a way to be somewhat productive.

Question 3: Asked by @yinzers85

I have Hillis, is Hardesty safe to drop now?  I need the spot for a TE to fill in for this week.

Answer

No, I don’t think he is.  Hillis is back this week and from what I am hearing, he should be back to his feature role.  I don’t see this being the case for long.  Even when healthy Hillis has been mediocre at best and with the season slipping away from Cleveland, I expect them to look to develop the young talent and at least share the work load between the two starting over the next couple weeks. I would definitely hold onto him for now.

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Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas has been a very inconsistent team this season.  Half the time Romo looks like a hero and the other half he looks like a scapegoat. Philadelphia has the opposite problem.  They have been consistently awful all season long!  They struggle to stop the run on defense and they also have not been able to keep from turning the ball over on offense. Offensive production in terms of points and yardage have never been the issue, but they just simply have not been able to overcome the turn overs.  I expect Dallas to lean on DeMarco Murray to take full advantage of the Eagles undersized defensive front and inability to contain the running game.  Because of Murray, the Cowboys should be able to keep Vick and the Eagles high-flying offense on the sideline and control the clock.  Dallas also has the ability to go deep with Austin and Bryant at receiver so this should be a great game regardless of who wins. I slightly downgrade the Cowboys ground game and think Murray is a must-start as an RB2 for this week. The Dallas defense is not good enough to make me downgrade any of the Eagles and you should still be starting all the usual suspects despite the losing streak. I like Dallas to win a close game with a heavy dose of the run game.

Patriots at Steelers

Brady has historically had no trouble passing against the Steelers and Pittsburgh has no one that can contain Welker, but I expect the run game to be a big part of New England’s plan this week.  Law Firm has been running strong the past couple of weeks and Ridley has been coming along as his primary backup.  With two quality runners and a Steelers defense that has been pretty mediocre against the run, Brady will probably not stick to the pass too much.  I think that the Steelers passing game should be in a for a big day.  Roethlisberger has not had much time to throw this season but then again, the Patriots have not been able to get much pressure on the QB or cover receivers in the vertical passing game.  Mike Wallace is an absolute MUST start in this match up and if you have Big Ben, you likely do not have a better option either. Welker and Brady have just been too good this season to bench ever too and I think New England squeaks out a win in a VERY close game.

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Love

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – Denver has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, averaging just over 20 per game.  I think we will probably see Calvin Johnson get back to 2 TDs per in a game this week.  And with Jahvid Best most likely out again, I think the Lions are going to air it out and win this game big to snap the two-game losing streak.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – I think Wallace is in for a really big game this week.  Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to protect Roethlisberger long enough to let him hit the open receiver deep down the field.  Luckily for Ben and all his receivers, New England has not had an effective pass rush and has struggled in coverage!

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – The Cowboys have not had a very good running game recently and Murray was a young prospect that they liked a lot before last week’s breakout performance. With a good match-up against Philadelphia this week, I expect Dallas to try and feature Murray heavily and see if he can put up big numbers on a consistent basis.

Fred Davis, TE, WAS – With Shawne Merriman placed on IR, the Bills are wearing thin at line backer. They have been pretty bad at stopping opposing tight ends and with Santana Moss out, Davis should see the biggest increase in carries.  PPR owners especially should take notice but he comes in at 5th in my rankings regardless.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has re-asserted himself as the leader of the committee in New England. While Tom Brady hasn’t typically had an issue passing against the Steelers, running the ball hasn’t been a viable option for years.  I do not downgrade Green-Ellis at all due to match up and think he has a decent shot at a nice game.

AJ Green, WR, CIN – Green has been great for Cincinnati and has developed a lot of chemistry with fellow rookie Andy Dalton.  Seattle allows over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and Green has been able to score double digit fantasy points in all but one game this season.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – You can’t ask for more from Sproles so far this season. He has been able to produce explosive plays on a consistent basis and his opponent this week just gave up over 250 yards on the ground to a rookie.

Hate

Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA – The Bengals defense is for real and I am yet to be convinced that Baldwin is. If Seattle wants to win this game, they need to get it done on the ground.

Bernard Scott, RB, CIN – This is the week that Cedric Benson is serving his suspension and I see a lot of people looking to Scott to pick right up where Benson left off.  I don’t see that happening against the under rated Seahawks rush defense.  Brian Leonard will get some carries if Scott struggles too and I could easily see him at 5 points or less.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs could end up OK this week due to his goal line work, but I do not see him having a big yardage total or large number of carries in his first game back from the injury.

Kevin Kolb, QB, ARI – Baltimore’s defense has been solid all season and I clearly do not expect such a repeat terrible performance.  With Beanie Wells on the bench, this Cardinals offense is one-dimensional and very sub-par. Kolb does not have enough quality receivers at his disposal to be able to get anything done against Ray Lewis and company.

Alfonso Smith, RB, ARI – Smith didn’t play well after Wells went down last week and I’ve already mentioned the terrible match up for Arizona this week.  The ONLY Cardinal worth starting is Fitz.

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