Ok everyone. We got one week in the books and a little bit better look at what’s around the corner for Week 2. Some of my picks hit, some of them didn’t. Most disappointing of all, my three team pick lost as well as my lock. Let’s pray to the betting gods we both have a better week.
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Tampa Bay @ New York Giants (-7) o/u 44
Tampa Bay seemed to have made the right moves in the off-season with the addition of Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. It appears a full training camp for 3rd year QB Josh Freeman reduced his interception but not his TD’s. Although Freeman looked slightly better than last year in Week 1 against Carolina he needs more production if this team is to compete in what could be the toughest division in the NFC. The Giants looked equally ineffective in Week 1 in a 7 point loss to the Cowboys at home. The Cowboys presented a much tougher defensive challenge for Eli Manning and friends than I think Tampa Bay will this week. Eli is going to have another big season. With a number like seven to cover, I like the Giants GIVING seven.
Line: New York Giants -7
Total: Under 44
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Arizona @ New England (-13.5) o/u 48.5
With the exception of the reduced production of Wes Welker, New England looked exactly like the team we all expected with their Week 1 performance. Taking a 21-3 lead into halftime the outcome was exactly what we all expected. With so many options in the passing game, it might be hard deciding who to start in fantasy week to week but one thing that’s a guarantee is that no matter who’s on during Sunday’s game, New England WILL score points. That does not bode well for an Arizona team that lost starting QB John Skelton in Week 1 and now resorts BACK to their castoff free agents signing in Kevin Kolb. Although Kolb threw a TD in a 4 point win over the Seahawks, the Patriots and their upgraded D will be a different story. The Patriots are GIVING 13.5 and that’s the perfect number as I see them winning by at least 14.
Line: New England -13.5
Total: Over 48.5
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Minnesota @ Indianapolis (+1.5) o/u 44.5
I hate this game. I’m sorry to fans of either team, but both of these team are waaaaaay too unpredictable. I’ll save everyone the time to read a drawn out explanation. This is my AVOID game this week. Stay away.
Line: Indianapolis +1.5
Total: Under 44.5
Sun – (1:00pm ET) New Orleans @ Carolina (+2.5) o/u 51
Well, as I said last Week New Orleans was not built on defense and that was on full display in a Week 1 MONSTER opening game by rookie phenom Robert Griffin III. Carolina on the other hand did not fare so well against the mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I see Carolina putting up more points than they did last week against the Saints weak D but I also see the Saints rebounding in a big way in Week 2 with a major offense output. I’ll take the Saints to cover 2.5 points and the over.
Line: New Orleans -2.5
Total: Over 51
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Kansas City @ Buffalo (-3) o/u 45
Boy was I wrong about the Bills in Week 1. My God it was an ugly loss for Bills and if it wasn’t for the garbage time points against the Jets scrubs on D this game would have looked much uglier. Kansas City doesn’t present the same defensive challenge as the Jets and Rex Ryan so I expect a better performance in Week 2 from the Bills and especially from veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas on the other hand got blown out by the Falcons. The Bills home crowd will be energized the home crowd and I like them in this potential offensive game.
Line: Buffalo -3
Total: Over 45
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Baltimore @ Philadelphia (-2) o/u 46.5
This one looks little weird to me. Baltimore looked great last week and the Eagles barely squeaked out a win at the lowly Cleveland Browns. I really like the look of this bet. Flacco seems to be progressing, Ray Rice is a beast as always and Baltimore’s D looks great. Although Philly will be at home and benefiting from the home crowd, something tells me Baltimore is just much too much for the Eagles this week. I like the Ravens a lot in this game.
Line: Baltimore +2.5
Total: Under 46.5
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Oakland at Miami (-2.5) o/u 39.5
Miami performed as expected in week 1. It’s going to be some time and a wide receiver or two until Miami is a decent team and I don’t see much changing throughout this entire 2012 season. Oakland also looked pretty poor in Week 2 but has many more weapons on offense and will perform better in Week 2. I think this will be a low scoring affair with a bunch of field goals but I certainly like the Raiders to be strong enough to cover a field goal. I like the under in this game and the Raiders to cover
Line: Oakland -2.5
Total: Under 39.5
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6.5) o/u 38.5
Cleveland’s offense is in a bad spot already but it’s hard to say you didn’t see it coming. Cincinnati had just as miserable a performance against a clearly more powerful Baltimore Ravens. Many people were high on Cincy coming into the season but everyone tends to overlook their leading rusher is gone and they still are relying almost solely on two second year players to carry the team. Although both were Pro Bowl players and have bright futures, their will be down weeks every now and then and last week was one of those weeks. Cleveland is going to struggle all season and although Cincy took a punch in the face from the Ravens, I see a role reversal in this game as Cincy rolls to a Week 2 beating over the Browns.
Line: Cincinnati -6.5
Total: Under 38.5
Sun – (1:00pm ET) Houston @ Jacksonville (+7) o/u 41.5
Houston’s offense came out of the gates in Week 1 and performed just like everyone expected. Long drives punctuated by rushing TD’s. Although Matt Schaub’s offensive numbers have declined the team’s offense as a whole has gone up and its due to the reliance on the running game. Miami found out in a bad way what a healthy and motivated Arian Foster does and I see Jacksonville being the second team to catch an offensive beating in Week 2. Jacksonville did look better in their loss over the Vikings than at almost any time last season but I just don’t see them being able to stand up to the Texans. I like the Texans to cover a touchdown but I really like the over in this game. I think the Texans post at least 28 on their own and I think the Jags are potent enough to cover the remaining 14 points.
Line: Houston -7
Total: Over 41.5
Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Dallas at Seattle (+3) o/u 42
Dallas performed much better in their first game than I thought they would. The ever present distraction of Dez Bryant still persists, but it looks like Miles Austin is healthier than most thought. Romo looked good and DeMarco Murray seems to be the next breakout back being able to both catch and run the ball. Seattle on the flip side came out mediocre as I thought. Russell Wilson will be the starter for the year barring injuries but there will be struggles early. Although the game is in the overpoweringly loud home of the Seahawks, I think a three point line is too little. I think Dallas covers AT LEAST a touchdown but the total worries me as I can see the Seahawks having trouble mustering points against a Dallas D that held the Super Bowl Champs to 17 points.
Line: Dallas -3
Total: Under 42
Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Washington at St. Louis (+3) o/u 45
I’m the first to admit when I’m wrong. I had the Lions blowing out the Rams in Week 1 but the St. Louis Rams more than held their own against an extremely high powered offensive machine in the Detroit Lions. Sam Bradford now has some weapons to help him and I think they will put up some more points this season than last but I’m not sure they are ready for the explosiveness Robert Griffin III brings to the table. This guy is for real and he proved it last week against the Saints in New Orleans. I think this game will be high scoring and pretty much as close as the Vegas line but I do like the Redskins to cover and the game to go over.
Line: Washington -3
Total: Over 45
Sun – (4:25 pm ET) New York Jets @ Pittsburgh (-5) o/u 41
The Jets also performed MUCH better than I gave them credit for in a Week 1 romp over the overmatched Buffalo Bills. They performed well on both offense and defense but I think the most telling sign of the game was the performance of Sanchez. If this dirty man can keep up half this pace for the season this team will be dangerous. I don’t count on this happening, but hey, who knows. Pittsburgh opened in the Mile High City and the Broncos were not in a friendly or welcoming mood as Payton Manning displayed his pre injury dominance in handling the Steelers top rated D with 3 straight 80 yard drives. Sanchez won’t perform anywhere near as well and I expect The Steelers home crowd to boost the energy even further. I like the Steelers to cover 5 and the over in this game.
Line: Pittsburgh -5
Total: Over 41
Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Tennessee @ San Diego (-6) o/u 43
Sand Diego handled the Raiders in Oakland on that atrocious field, but they did not do as well as I had expected. There Is a better chance of offense this week against Tennessee who was overmatched in Week 1 against the New England Patriots. I like Jake Locker a lot but as I said last week, I think it will take some time for him to develop the type of passing game and consistency necessary to compete in the NFL. I like Tennessee a little bit more than some people, especially in this game against the Chargers who are undeniably the slowest starting team in the last 20 years. They always seem to pull it out but they laid some eggs to start the season and I can see this team hurting to cover six points.
Line: Tennessee (+6)
Total: Over 43
Sunday Night Football
Sun – (8:25 pm ET) Detroit @ San Francisco (-6.5) o/u 45
San Francisco went in to Green Bay on the NFL’s opening week and handled their business. This team looks a lot like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Unbelievable defense with a mediocre QB that can take his team a long way by limiting turnovers and simply managing his team to a few touchdowns. They beat Green Bay and put a significant amount of points. I like this team a lot. But, Green Bay still put up some points. Detroit can score some points as well. I see this game being a lot lower scoring than 45 points but I like the Lions to keep it real close and possibly go into San Francisco and steal a win. Lions to cover 6.5 in a low scoring affair.
Line: Lions +6.5
Total: Under 45
Monday Night Football
Mon – (10:15pm ET) Denver @ Atlanta (-3) o/u 51
This game is going to be high scoring. Both teams put on a serious offensive display in Week 1 and I like some fireworks again in Week 2. The over on this game is all but guaranteed and Manning and Ryan will both score some points for their teams. My biggest issue with this is I can’t tell either way who wins this game and I don’t like Atlanta to cover -3. This is a tricky game and I wouldn’t put money on the line but I like the over.
Line: Denver + 3
Total: Over 51
Week 1 Lock: Over 51 Denver Vs. Atlanta
Week 1 Avoid: Minnesota Vs. Indianapolis
Week 1 Parlay: 100 points to win 500 points
Atl/Den over 51 points total