Atlanta (-3) @ Washington o/u 50.5
These two teams put up a lot of points and when this line came out I was thinking it would be ALOT closer to 55 or 56. Washington’s defense is decimated and with Atlanta’s plethora of offensive weapons, this does not seem to be the week the Skins’s D gets back on track. RGIII is by all accounts the best rookie QB through Week 4 and currently is the #4 rated passer according to the stat guru’s at ESPN. And if you’d like to take a guess at who’s number 1, I’ll save you the time. It’s Matt Ryan with a 69% completion rate, 112.1 QB Rating along with 11 TD’s and 2 Int. This game will be a shootout and go over the total but ultimately will end with the Falcons covering the spread.
Tennessee (+5.5) @ Minnesota o/u 44.5
I stayed away from the Vikings earlier in the season. Rookie signal caller and the questions surrounding AP’s surgically repaired knee, along with a lack of receiving threats made me very leery of this team but after a 3-1 start (including wins over the 49′ers and Lions) this team looks to be a lot tougher than most give them credit. Christian Ponder is doing a great job of protecting the ball and limiting turnovers, he’s finding his tight end and the running game is working with AP looking healthy thus far. Tennessee on the other hand was completely dismantled and overmatched by the Houston Texans and with this week’s injury to Jake Locker, things don’t appear to look any more promising having to go to Minnesota. I like Minnesota to cover 5.5 points in this one.
Buffalo (+10) @ San Francisco o/u 44.5
Buffalo’s defense fell apart in the second half last week after taking a two touchdown lead into halftime. The Patriots are notorious for second half adjustments so although this is not a complete surprise, it still leaves some questions. Buffalo can put up points but San Francisco is loaded on defense. Ten points is a large spread to cover, but at home, against an overmatched team traveling across the country, I like San Francisco. It’s a tough call, but I think the over is the right play in this game. The 49′ers could end up putting up close to 35 on their own and the Bills will manage a least 14-17 points I think
San Francisco (-10)
Chicago (-6) @ Jacksonville o/u 40
Chicago’s D last week looked like the unit that backed Kyle Orton and a weak offense to a Super Bowl appearance during the 2006 season. This was probably more a product of Tony Romo forcing throws all night than it was the sign of a dominant defense, but Chicago’s D has proven to be a turnover and touchdown machine thus far. Jacksonville on the other hand is sitting at 1-3 and coming off a poor offensive showing against the Bengals in Week 4. MJD cannot seem to get the ground game going on a consistent basis and it is hurting Blaine Gabbert and the passing game. Although the game is in Jacksonville, the line of -6 is very enticing as it means the Bears only have to cover a touchdown to win. I like this alot. Also, if Tony Romo can get picked 5 times against the Bears D, just imagine what type of day Blaine Gabbert could be in store for. Chicago’s D scores at least once, but I think they hold the Jags to 10 or less and this game stays low scoring.
Baltimore (-6) @ Kansas City o/u 46.5
Baltimore is one of the best teams in the AFC and the NFL. Kansas City on the other hand is just plain awful. This game is alot like the game above. Only having to cover six points looks very good to me. Baltimore finally seems to have found its groove on offense and with a still dominant D, the Ravens are going to be a Super Bowl contender for the entire year. I like Joe Flacco’s emergence this season and with Ray Rice in the backfield, this team appears to have all the pieces in places to form a complete team. Kansas City seems to be in their 3rd or 4th year of a mediocre rebuilding process. Their 1-3 record comes with only one win againt the 0-4 New Orleans Saints. This team is bottom of the barrel bad and I like the under in this one too.