Atlanta (-3) @ Washington o/u 50.5

These two teams put up a lot of points and when this line came out I was thinking it would be ALOT closer to 55 or 56. Washington’s defense is decimated and with Atlanta’s plethora of offensive weapons, this does not seem to be the week the Skins’s D gets back on track. RGIII is by all accounts the best rookie QB through Week 4 and currently is the #4 rated passer according to the stat guru’s at ESPN. And if you’d like to take a guess at who’s number 1, I’ll save you the time. It’s Matt Ryan with a 69% completion rate, 112.1 QB Rating along with 11 TD’s and 2 Int. This game will be a shootout and go over the total but ultimately will end with the Falcons covering the spread.

Atlanta -3
Over 50.5

Tennessee (+5.5) @ Minnesota o/u 44.5

I stayed away from the Vikings earlier in the season. Rookie signal caller and the questions surrounding AP’s surgically repaired knee, along with a lack of receiving threats made me very leery of this team but after a 3-1 start (including wins over the 49′ers and Lions) this team looks to be a lot tougher than most give them credit. Christian Ponder is doing a great job of protecting the ball and limiting turnovers, he’s finding his tight end and the running game is working with AP looking healthy thus far. Tennessee on the other hand was completely dismantled and overmatched by the Houston Texans and with this week’s injury to Jake Locker, things don’t appear to look any more promising having to go to Minnesota. I like Minnesota to cover 5.5 points in this one.

Minnesota (-5.5)
Under 44.5

Buffalo (+10) @ San Francisco o/u 44.5

Buffalo’s defense fell apart in the second half last week after taking a two touchdown lead into halftime. The Patriots are notorious for second half adjustments so although this is not a complete surprise, it still leaves some questions. Buffalo can put up points but San Francisco is loaded on defense. Ten points is a large spread to cover, but at home, against an overmatched team traveling across the country, I like San Francisco. It’s a tough call, but I think the over is the right play in this game. The 49′ers could end up putting up close to 35 on their own and the Bills will manage a least 14-17 points I think

San Francisco (-10)
Over 44.5

Chicago (-6) @ Jacksonville o/u 40

Chicago’s D last week looked like the unit that backed Kyle Orton and a weak offense to a Super Bowl appearance during the 2006 season. This was probably more a product of Tony Romo forcing throws all night than it was the sign of a dominant defense, but Chicago’s D has proven to be a turnover and touchdown machine thus far. Jacksonville on the other hand is sitting at 1-3 and coming off a poor offensive showing against the Bengals in Week 4. MJD cannot seem to get the ground game going on a consistent basis and it is hurting Blaine Gabbert and the passing game. Although the game is in Jacksonville, the line of -6 is very enticing as it means the Bears only have to cover a touchdown to win. I like this alot. Also, if Tony Romo can get picked 5 times against the Bears D, just imagine what type of day Blaine Gabbert could be in store for. Chicago’s D scores at least once, but I think they hold the Jags to 10 or less and this game stays low scoring.

Chicago (-6)
Under 40

Baltimore (-6) @ Kansas City o/u 46.5

Baltimore is one of the best teams in the AFC and the NFL. Kansas City on the other hand is just plain awful. This game is alot like the game above. Only having to cover six points looks very good to me. Baltimore finally seems to have found its groove on offense and with a still dominant D, the Ravens are going to be a Super Bowl contender for the entire year. I like Joe Flacco’s emergence this season and with Ray Rice in the backfield, this team appears to have all the pieces in places to form a complete team. Kansas City seems to be in their 3rd or 4th year of a mediocre rebuilding process. Their 1-3 record comes with only one win againt the 0-4 New Orleans Saints. This team is bottom of the barrel bad and I like the under in this one too.

Baltimore (-6)
Under 46.5

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Week 4 – Okay everyone.  I’m trying something new as a way to track my weekly success for both my personal benefit and to further benefit my readers.  Every week going forward – this week included – I will give you my safest 3 bets of the week. I will track my success on these bets as though I had wagered $500 on each game and I will keep a running total throughout the season.  I haven’t come up with a cool name for this section of my posts yet but It will always be at the end and I am indeed picking my first three games this week! Well, let’s get into the week 4 match-ups!

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-12) o/u 44

It appears by all accounts that this is finally the season experts have been waiting for Joe Flacco to emerge.  He is clearly a Top 10 Quarterback at this point in the season and although it is still early, all signs point to Flacco finally realizing the potential that prompted the Baltimore Ravens to draft him with their 1^st Round pick, 18^th overall in 2008.  With an offense featuring Ray Rice, a young emerging tight end and a burner in Torrey Smith, the Ravens offense seems to finally be ready to match the performance of their vaunted D.  The Browns on the other hand looked less than mediocre against the Bills last week.  They could muster almost no offense going in to the 3^rd quarter and this will not change this week with Mohammed Massaquoi out.  This week does not look good for the Browns.
Line: Baltimore -12
Total: Over 44

New England (-4) @ Buffalo o/u 51.5

Although New England lost a heartbreaker to the Ravens last week, I think they will be more than ready to come back with a vengeance this week in Buffalo.  Billy B was fined $50,000 for his referee incident and the Pats have a long history of dominance over the Bills.  With CJ Spiller being hurt, Fred Jackson’s status up in the air and an ANGRY Pats team coming to town, things spell disaster for the Buffalo Bills this weekend.  I really like Tom Brady and company to come in to Buffalo and show the Bills the difference between their Week 2 & 3 opponents (KC & Cleveland) with a dominant performance in Week 4 in Orchard Park.  Take the Pats and rest easy on Sunday.
Line: New England -4
Total: Over 51.5

Minnesota @ Detroit (-4.5) o/u 46

Things have been up and down for both of these teams this year and the Detroit Lions have not lived up to expectations as of yet.  I do not predict this to be an issue for much longer.  This team has much too much talent to choke away and entire season and WAAAY too much offense not to be able to cover a simple 4.5 points at home against the lowly Vikings. Quarterback play will be the deciding factor in this game and I see no reason to doubt Matthew Stafford’s ability to outgun Christian Ponder and his mediocre offense.
Line: Detroit (-4.5)
Total: Over 46

Carolina @ Atlanta (-7) o/u 48.5

Carolina looked very overmatched during their Thursday night home performance against the NY Giants and the Atlanta Falcons looked near flawless in a blowout over the San Diego Chargers.  Although I expect a better performance from the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, the fact of the matter is, the Panthers are still a team looking up and the Atlanta Falcons are a team poised to win a title.  Atlanta has the talent, coaching, experience and chemistry of a team that is built for a very deep playoff run.  Carolina and Cam Newton will show flashes of promise in this game, but I think the Falcons will ultimately win.  My biggest concern about this game is the -7 line which forces Atlanta to win by more than a touchdown and I think this might be a bit tricky.  This is a tough one to pick, but at +7 points I’ll take Carolina
Line: Carolina +7
Total: Under 48.5

San Francisco (-4) @ New York Jets o/u 40.5

This game is a line that you should jump on early.  This line will not stay this way for long as I see a HUGE movement towards money on the 49er’s ESPECIALLY considering the recent news of Darelle Revis’ ACL injury.  San Francisco is a monster on defense and can score enough to overpower almost any team in the NFL.  With Jets RB Joe McKnight switching to a defensive back in practice this week for the Jets, things in the New York secondary are clearly in disarray.  I expect the 49’ers to win this game and win this game big.  I’ll take my own money on them covering 4 points.
Line: San Francisco -4
Total: Over 40.5

San Diego @ Kansas City (-1) o/u 44.5

Kansas City responded in a big way during a Week 3 upset of the reeling Saints in New Orleans. Even more impressive than the win was the fact that the Chiefs went on the road and did it in New Orleans.  San Diego was handled by the Falcons and although both of these teams could win this game by at least ten, the line of -1 tells you that Vegas sees this game as a coin toss.  In my world, and the world of betting, barring a freak pregame injury to a star player, a toss up game is one to stay away from.  I don’t even like the over in this game.  Las Vegas has this one nailed down 100% and the chances of you making money on this game are slim to none.  Stay away.
Line: Kansas City (-1)
Total: Under 44.5

Tennessee @ Houston (-12) @ o/u 44

Tennessee pulled out one of the craziest wins I’ve seen in the NFL in the last 3 or 4 years and it might be time to take a look at the Titans as far as betting is concerned.  Coming in to the season I could not see myself betting on the Titans but after Week 3 it might be time to put them on your watch list and watch list ONLY.  After two 20+ point beat downs to San Diego and New England in Weeks 1 & 2, the Titans responded with an offense outburst in Week 3.  Don’t buy in.  Last week’s point total was an anomaly. The Lions, despite their recent drafting and defensive upgrades, have given up 23, 27 & 41 points in the first three weeks of the season.  The Titans will not have as easy a time putting up points in Week 4 against the Texans D but I think the Titans offense is underrated and I like the Titans with a +12 point cushion.
Line: Tennessee +12
Total: Over 44

Miami @ Arizona (-6.5) o/u 39.5

It’s going to be hard argue against a 3-0 team going on the road to a 1-2 team with a rookie QB and banged up RB and only needing to cover 7 points for a win.  This game though has all the red flags of a trap game.  If you ask me I think this game came out with such a low line for that reason.  West Coast teams traveling East for 1 PM are NOTORIOUS for underperforming and don’t think the money makers in Las Vegas don’t know this.  Arizona is one of only three currently undefeated teams (with Atlanta and Houston) but are considerably less talented that almost any team sitting at 2-1 and a few teams with 1-2 records.  I’m not discounting the Cards opening the season with 3 wins, but my gut tells me smart money gets put on the Dolphins in this game.
Line: Miami +6.5
Total: Over 39.5

Oakland @ Denver (-6.5) o/u 47.5

Oakland will finish this season as one of the organizations drafting in the Top 5.  Take the Broncos covering a touchdown.  Bet the total at your own risk.  I want no part of it.  That is all you need to know about this game.
Line: Denver -6.5
Total: Under 47.5

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Jacksonville o/u 42.5

This is another game I absolutely do not like and this will be my avoid pick for the week.  I’m avoiding this game like the plague but being forced to choose I like
Line: Cincinnati (-2.5)
Total: Over 42.5

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-7.5) o/u 54

Both of these teams are reeling after heart breaking Week 2 losses.  The Saints and Packers both entered 2012 as potential NFC Super Bowl favorites but both find themselves entering this game on the bottom looking up.  With a combined 1-5 record both teams entire seasons could be riding on a Week 4 game, as improbable as that may sound.  A loss for either of these teams, as tough as both of their respective divisions are, might mean the difference between a playoff berth and an early end to 2012.  The Saints are clearly struggling.  Losing AT HOME to a KC Chiefs team a week off a complete dismantling by the one again and off again Buffalo Bills is not a sign that this team is handling the Bounty Gate fiasco as well as most thought. Almost all expert opinions landed on the Saints being about the same team this season, maybe with two or three more losses but getting by on the shoulders of offensive captain and team leader Drew Brees.  This has not happened and the pressure is no bigger on any team after 3 weeks than New Orleans.  I like them to keep it close, but also see this game being a sequel of last year’s matchup with a high scoring shootout
Line: New Orleans +7.5
Total: Over 54

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3) o/u 47.5

This is going to be a great game to watch on TV or at a bar but it will NOT BE a game you should bet one.  Both teams have young exciting QB’s who could single handedly steal a game.  Although this is great for fans of the Bucs and Skins, this week….it’s not good for your money.  When it comes to betting you ALWAYS want to put money on safe games.  This game is NOT a safe game as it could go either way.  Because TB is at home I’d usually take them covering 3 points but I love Robert Griffin III. He is a beast. I’ll take the over based off the fact both offenses have the ability to score 40 by themselves but not the ability to do it consistently.
Line: Washington +3
Total: Over 47.5

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-2) o/u 41.5

Anyone who waited too late to draft a real QB because they got on the Mike Vick band wagon will be kicking themselves at the end of the season when the dog murderer is either injured, or replaced by the rookie backup from Arizona Nick Foles.  As per the quote in an article by Brendan Prunty of the Newark Star-Ledger Andy Reid said “Right now, we’re with Michael. That’s what we’re doing. We’ll evaluate as we go on.”  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  This has the feel of a team that might suffer two more losses and lose their whole identity and fall apart.  The Giants on the other hand are ALWAYS to be taken seriously.  Going on the road and GETTING a 2 point bump should tell you the Giants are the team to bet on this game.
Line: New York Giants +2
Total: Over 46.5

Chicago @ Dallas (-3.5) o/u 41.5

Placing A Monday night bet any earlier than an hour before the game is normally a sucker bet but because my game rides on it…here it is..
Line: Dallas (-3.5)
Total: Over 46.5

Week 4 Safest Bets:

(1)  Detroit -4.5
(2)  New England -4
(3)  San Francisco -4

-Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!  Follow @ErikTheLineMan

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Sun – (1:00pm ET) St Louis @ Chicago (-7.5) o/u 43

St. Louis is not a team to sleep on.  Sam Bradford seems to finally be healthy and comfortable.  The Rams were a three point underdog at home but came away with the three point victory.  I may be a lot higher on the Rams than most people but I’m also just as down on the Bears prospects this season after two games.  The Bears biggest problem the last three seasons has been consistency and through the first two weeks these seem issues seem to still be plaguing the Chicago still.  The supposed bump in Cutler’s production with the addition of his Denver partner Brandon Marshall has not been realized.  I like Bradford’s renewed chemistry with Danny Amendola and the addition of Brandon Gibson opposite him.  Even though the game is in Chicago I see St. Louis keeping it close enough to cover the spread

Line: St. Louis +3

Total: Over 43.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-7.5) o/u 46

Dallas came out of the gates with a solid overall performance in New Jersey against the Giants only to go to Seattle and lay and absolute egg against a young, mediocre Seattle Seahawks team.  Dallas couldn’t run, they managed barely anything in the passing game and were overwhelmed by Seattle’s defense for most of the afternoon.  Hopefully for Jerry’s Boys they can rebound at their palace in Arlington.  Miles Austin seems to be the only consistent receiver in the Dallas offense and even he has been dinged up lately.  Jason Witten is not the same player he once was and is also dealing with injuries.  The one positive Dallas can look to is that they are still 1-1 with a home game against a surely heartbroken Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Tampa managed to let a sizeable lead slip away last week against Eli Manning who led the comeback and eventually finished with 510 yards through the air.  Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson have developed a solid chemistry quite early and they can clearly score points.  I would like this line a lot better at 6.5 because a 7.5 point line means Vegas is going to make money if even Dallas wins by a TD.  I think Tampa Bay keeps this one close and I like this game to go after 46

Line: Tampa Bay +7.5

Total: Over 46

Sun – (1:00pm ET) San Francisco (-6.5) @ Minnesota o/u 43

San Francisco finished last year very strong and nearly beat the Giants in the NFC title game.  I think if they would have topped the Giants, it would have been San Francisco holding the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year.  The Niners defense looks absolutely BRUTAL to play against and matchup with a still recovering Adrian Peterson and an improving but inexperienced Christian Ponder things again are looking up for Jim Harbaugh’s boys.  This game has all the red flags of a trap game and if the line moves up closer to 8 points I don’t know if I’d bet the game at all, but at 6.5 I like it.  West Coast team, going East, playing a 1 PM game….this line looks odd to me but Im not biting.  I like San Francisco based almost totally off of their defense and ability to limit the Vikings to less than 14 points.  Take San Francisco if your line is -6.5 and the o/u is up to you because I could see this game being a toss up at 43.

Line: San Francisco -6.5

Total: Under 43

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Cincinnati @ Washington (-3) o/u 49

Cincinnati looked better in Week 2 and their passing game seems to be clicking, their defense on the other hand needs to tighten up.  Giving up 24 points to Cleveland in a game they almost let slip away, the Bengals hung on for the win and a nice boost after and awful Week 1 showing. Washington on the other hand started with a solid defense that is suddenly reeling after IR placements of linebacker/rush specialist Brian Orakpo and defensive end Adam Carriker.  The loss of these two is a big hit for the Washington pass rush but these losses will also spill over into other areas of their D.  Cincinnati needs desperately to improve on defense as well if they are going to contain the explosive Robert Griffin III. I don’t see either team struggling to put up points and neither does Vegas with a line approaching 50.   I like this game to be VERY close and although I don’t feel all that comfortable with it, my gut tells me take Cincinnati with the points.

Line: Cincinnati +3

Total: Over 49

Sun – (1:00pm ET) New York Jets (-2.5) @ Miami o/u 41.5

This game is another matchup that sticks out to me as an odd line.  The Jets were feeling positive after a Week 1 dismantling of the Buffalo Bills but laid an egg in Week 2 against the Steelers.  This team literally cannot run the ball if their lives depended upon it.  Through two weeks, the combination of Bilal Powell, Joe McKnight and Shonn Green has done little to dispel preseason talk of talk of the running game being a glaring hole in this team’s playoff chances.  With all this being said Miami is no powerhouse and although Reggie Bush EXPLODED in Week 2 against an awful Raiders team, I don’t know about the Dolphins prospects against the Jets.  Miami plays much better at home and I could see them keeping this game close until late 3^rd, early 4^th quarter, but eventually I see the Jets getting by in this one and covering the line.

Line: New York Jets -2.5

Total: Over 41.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Kansas City @ New Orleans (-9) o/u 53

Kansas City looked downright unwatchable at points last week during their match with the Buffalo Bills. Although they scored a few garbage time points with Dwayne Bowe late in the game after it was long over, Kansas City has the look of a team that will drafting in the Top 5 come April.  The Bills were thoroughly handled by the New York Jets in Week 1 and served up the same for Kansas City in Week 2.  Something tells me a horrible defense going on the road to New Orleans against that offense is not what Kansas City needs to bounce back from a bad loss.  The Saints are reeling early and the leadership void created by the season-long absence of Sean Payton may have been underestimated by almost everyone yet I don’t see Drew Brees being allowing his team to continue their downward tumble.  With a line of -9 points I like the Saints to take this one and I see them turning this in to a track meet early that Kansas City will have no ability to control.

Line: New Orleans -9

Total: Over 53

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Buffalo (-3) @ Cleveland o/u 44.5

Both Buffalo and Cleveland bounced back from Week 1 setbacks with statement games in Week 2, albeit with Cleveland’s game ending in a different result.  The Browns came out with a more polished offensive game but couldn’t seem to keep Cincinnati’s offense in check en route to a loss to a divisional foe.  Brandon Weeden looked much better in Week 2 and Trent Richardson had his breakout game as well.  With a matchup against the Bills, Cleveland has to like the chances for their first win of the season if they can keep the came close early.  Buffalo is notoriously slow starting on the road and has not won a game away from The Ralph since the opening day matchup with Kansas City in 2011.  If Buffalo is to remedy their road woes, a game in Cleveland seems to be just what the doctor ordered.  CJ Spiller’s emergence is undeniable and if Ryan Fitzpatrick can put together a few sustained drives resulting in points I see no reason the Bills can’t cover three points and send the Browns to an 0-3 start.

Line: Buffalo -3

Total: Over 44.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3) o/u 43

I don’t know why, but I really don’t like any games so far this year involving the Jags.  They have not looked good at almost any point this season, but with MJD in the backfield they could rush for 200 yards on his back alone at any point and it makes their AWFUL quarterback seem an obstacle that could be overcome.  I don’t see it though.  Especially this week against Andrew Luck and a Colts team that will surprise some people and may end up finishing the season closer to .500 than a lot of people thought going in to the 2012 season.  I’m staying well away from this game as far as my own money but if you plan on taking this game, I like the Colts to cover the three points and I also like the under.

Line: Indianapolis -3

Total: Under 43

Sun – (4:05 pm ET) Philadelphia @ Arizona (-3.5) o/u 42.5

Philadelphia escaped for a second Week with a win in a close game and now lead the NFC East.  Arizona as well starts out the season 2-0 and is coming off of a surprising statement win on the road in Foxboro against the Patriots.  The Eagles are the ultimate boom or bust team.  With the fragility of Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson and the toughness throughout this division I don’t see this Eagles team either winning the division OR making the playoffs.  That aside,  I don’t like this game for the exact same reasons I don’t like the Jacksonville/Indianapolis game.  I have my opinions and predictions for the game, but the purpose of my posts are to direct you towards the best possible games to bet money on and I don’t like this game for betting purposes whatsoever.

Line: Philadelphia +3.5

Total: Under 42.5

Sun – (4:05 pm ET) Atlanta @ San Diego (-3) o/u 47.5

Ladies and Gentleman, Payton Manning is still human after all.  I admit to taking Denver’s Week 1 performance a little too seriously going into Atlanta in Week 2 and I paid for it, literally.  Manning had one of the worst 1^st Quarter performances of his career yet somehow managed to resurrect himself and his team in the second half to make a game of a contest that easily could have been over half way through the 1^st Quarter.  Atlanta, and especially their offense looked great in their win last week over Denver.  San Diego on the other hand has managed an undefeated record as well and looked much better last week in a huge win over a clearly overwhelmed Tennessee Titans squad.  I like this game to be a shootout and ultimately in the fair weather city of San Diego, I see Atlanta’s offense being on full display this week again and taking the Dirty Birds to t 3-0 record to open 2012

Line: Atlanta +3

Total: Over 47.5

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Houston (-2) @ Denver o/u 44.5

So Payton Manning, are we going to get your 1^st Half performance or your 2^nd Half performance from last week?  That’s the question everyone in fantasy and betting circles will be wondering this week.  Manning seemed to have recovered from his disastrous 1^st Half but it was ultimately too little too late.  Personally, I think the home crowd will be the factor in a close game and a road team giving two points to a home team seems like too much of a proposition to pass up.  Although I like Houston’s prospects of winning a weak division and the 1-2 punch of Arian Foster and Ben Tate, I don’t like them going on the road to Mile High and covering two points.  Manning is just too good, too experienced and too professional to not rebound from last week’s performance behind a home crowd in Denver.

Line: Denver +2

Total: Over 44.5

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Pittsburgh (-4) @ Oakland o/u 45

Pittsburgh responded from a disappointing loss to Denver in Week 1 with a statement game in Week 2 against Rex Ryan and the New York Jets.  Although it was a plodding, slow moving game, Pittsburgh wore down the Jets who struggled to contain Pittsburgh’s offense as well as to put any points of their own on the board.  Pittsburgh does a great job of turning over defensive players and keeping talent flowing through their system on defense side of the ball and some of their young stars are really starting to emerge and take over from the “Old Guard.”   Oakland on the other hand looks to rebound from a disappointing outing in Miami where their defense gave up a career game to Reggie Bush.  Oakland has the looks of a team that has no real identity.  They will struggle week to week to find themselves and I don’t think this is the week Oakland grabs their first win.  Pittsburgh is a too complete of a team to not be able to handle an overmatched Raiders team.  I don’t think Oakland’s offense is prepared for the type of pressure and schemes that Pittsburgh will bring and I really like the Steelers in this one.

Line: Pittsburgh -4

Total: Under 45

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Baltimore (-3) @ New England o/u 49

I’ve learned a lot in my short betting past by betting against the Patriots two weeks in a row.  It does not pay to bet against the Patriots twice.  Ever.  I made money on whim last week with Arizona and I take no credit other than “I had a feeling.”  The Ravens are a solid team and have the makeup to again meet these same Pats in the AFC title game this season but I have the same problem with Baltimore that I have with many teams in the NFL.  They are not consistent.  Betting, and winning on bets, relies almost entirely on your ability to spot consistency and trends before Las Vegas does and Baltimore is not the type of team you can count on on weekly basis.  The fact that Baltimore is going in to Foxboro as a 3 point favorite blows me away.  I like the Pats in this game.

Line: New England +3

Total: Under 49

Sun – (8:25 pm ET) Detroit @ San Francisco (-6.5) o/u 45

San Francisco went in to Green Bay on the NFL’s opening week and handled their business.  This team looks a lot like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  Unbelievable defense with a mediocre QB that can take his team a long way by limiting turnovers and simply managing his team to a few touchdowns.  They beat Green Bay and put a significant amount of points.  I like this team a lot.  But, Green Bay still put up some points.  Detroit can score some points as well.  I see this game being a lot lower scoring than 45 points but I like the Lions to keep it real close and possibly go into San Francisco and steal a win.  Lions to cover 6.5 in a low scoring affair.

Line: Lions +6.5

Total: Under 45

Monday Night Football

Mon – (10:15pm ET) Green Bay (-3) @ Seattle o/u 46.5

Bet this game ALL DAY.  Ok, Seattle beat the Cowboys at home last week.  Great.  Does anyone really think that Green Bay doesn’t come in to Seattle and cover a field goal?  Green Bay is not much different today than the team that won a Super Bowl in 2010.  Russell Wilson is decent and improving every week.  I think long term he is a legit quarterback in this league but I find it very hard to believe that Green Bay cannot beat the Seahawks by at least a touchdown.  Please…take Green Bay this week.

Line: Green Bay =3

Total: Under 43.5

Overall

Week 3 Lock: Green Bay -3

Week 3 Avoid: Jacksonville Vs. Indianapolis

Week 1 Parlay: 100 points to win 500 points

Pittsburgh -4

New Orleans -9

San Francisco -6.5

-Thanks for reading and best of luck this week!  Follow @ErikTheLineMan

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Ok everyone.  We got one week in the books and a little bit better look at what’s around the corner for Week 2.  Some of my picks hit, some of them didn’t.  Most disappointing of all, my three team pick lost as well as my lock.  Let’s pray to the betting gods we both have a better week.

Sunday Games

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Tampa Bay @ New York Giants (-7) o/u 44

Tampa Bay seemed to have made the right moves in the off-season with the addition of Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin.  It appears a full training camp for 3^rd year QB Josh Freeman reduced his interception but not his TD’s. Although Freeman looked slightly better than last year in Week 1 against Carolina he needs more production if this team is to compete in what could be the toughest division in the NFC.    The Giants looked equally ineffective in Week 1 in a 7 point loss to the Cowboys at home.  The Cowboys presented a much tougher defensive challenge for Eli Manning and friends than I think Tampa Bay will this week.  Eli is going to have another big season.  With a number like seven to cover, I like the Giants GIVING seven.

Line: New York Giants -7

Total: Under 44

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Arizona @ New England (-13.5) o/u 48.5

With the exception of the reduced production of Wes Welker, New England looked exactly like the team we all expected with their Week 1 performance. Taking a 21-3 lead into halftime the outcome was exactly what we all expected.  With so many options in the passing game, it might be hard deciding who to start in fantasy week to week but one thing that’s a guarantee is that no matter who’s on during Sunday’s game, New England WILL score points.  That does not bode well for an Arizona team that lost starting QB John Skelton in Week 1 and now resorts BACK to their castoff free agents signing in Kevin Kolb.  Although Kolb threw a TD in a 4 point win over the Seahawks, the Patriots and their upgraded D will be a different story.  The Patriots are GIVING 13.5 and that’s the perfect number as I see them winning by at least 14.

Line: New England -13.5

Total: Over 48.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Minnesota @ Indianapolis (+1.5) o/u 44.5

I hate this game.  I’m sorry to fans of either team, but both of these team are waaaaaay too unpredictable.  I’ll save everyone the time to read a drawn out explanation.  This is my AVOID game this week.  Stay away.

Line: Indianapolis +1.5

Total: Under 44.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) New Orleans @ Carolina (+2.5) o/u 51

Well, as I said last Week New Orleans was not built on defense and that was on full display in a Week 1 MONSTER opening game by rookie phenom Robert Griffin III.  Carolina on the other hand did not fare so well against the mediocre Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I see Carolina putting up more points than they did last week against the Saints weak D but I also see the Saints rebounding in a big way in Week 2 with a major offense output.  I’ll take the Saints to cover 2.5 points and the over.

Line: New Orleans -2.5

Total: Over 51

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Kansas City @ Buffalo (-3) o/u 45

Boy was I wrong about the Bills in Week 1.  My God it was an ugly loss for Bills and if it wasn’t for the garbage time points against the Jets scrubs on D this game would have looked much uglier.  Kansas City doesn’t present the same defensive challenge as the Jets and Rex Ryan so I expect a better performance in Week 2 from the Bills and especially from veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Kansas on the other hand got blown out by the Falcons.  The Bills home crowd will be energized the home crowd and I like them in this potential offensive game.

Line: Buffalo -3

Total: Over 45

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Baltimore @ Philadelphia (-2) o/u 46.5

This one looks little weird to me.  Baltimore looked great last week and the Eagles barely squeaked out a win at the lowly Cleveland Browns.  I really like the look of this bet.  Flacco seems to be progressing, Ray Rice is a beast as always and Baltimore’s D looks great.  Although Philly will be at home and benefiting from the home crowd, something tells me Baltimore is just much too much for the Eagles this week.  I like the Ravens a lot in this game.

Line: Baltimore +2.5

Total: Under 46.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Oakland at Miami (-2.5) o/u 39.5

Miami performed as expected in week 1.  It’s going to be some time and a wide receiver or two until Miami is a decent team and I don’t see much changing throughout this entire 2012 season.  Oakland also looked pretty poor in Week 2 but has many more weapons on offense and will perform better in Week 2.  I think this will be a low scoring affair with a bunch of field goals but I certainly like the Raiders to be strong enough to cover a field goal.  I like the under in this game and the Raiders to cover

Line: Oakland -2.5

Total: Under 39.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6.5) o/u 38.5

Cleveland’s offense is in a bad spot already but it’s hard to say you didn’t see it coming.  Cincinnati had just as miserable a performance against a clearly more powerful Baltimore Ravens.  Many people were high on Cincy coming into the season but everyone tends to overlook their leading rusher is gone and they still are relying almost solely on two second year players to carry the team.  Although both were Pro Bowl players and have bright futures, their will be down weeks every now and then and last week was one of those weeks.  Cleveland is going to struggle all season and although Cincy took a punch in the face from the Ravens, I see a role reversal in this game as Cincy rolls to a Week 2 beating over the Browns.

Line: Cincinnati -6.5

Total: Under 38.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Houston @ Jacksonville (+7) o/u 41.5

Houston’s offense came out of the gates in Week 1 and performed just like everyone expected.  Long drives punctuated by rushing TD’s.  Although Matt Schaub’s offensive numbers have declined the team’s offense as a whole has gone up and its due to the reliance on the running game.  Miami found out in a bad way what a healthy and motivated Arian Foster does and I see Jacksonville being the second team to catch an offensive beating in Week 2.  Jacksonville did look better in their loss over the Vikings than at almost any time last season but I just don’t see them being able to stand up to the Texans.  I like the Texans to cover a touchdown but I really like the over in this game.  I think the Texans post at least 28 on their own and I think the Jags are potent enough to cover the remaining 14 points.

Line: Houston -7

Total: Over 41.5

Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Dallas at Seattle (+3) o/u 42

Dallas performed much better in their first game than I thought they would.  The ever present distraction of Dez Bryant still persists, but it looks like Miles Austin is healthier than most thought.  Romo looked good and DeMarco Murray seems to be the next breakout back being able to both catch and run the ball.  Seattle on the flip side came out mediocre as I thought.  Russell Wilson will be the starter for the year barring injuries but there will be struggles early. Although the game is in the overpoweringly loud home of the Seahawks, I think a three point line is too little.  I think Dallas covers AT LEAST a touchdown but the total worries me as I can see the Seahawks having trouble mustering points against a Dallas D that held the Super Bowl Champs to 17 points.

Line: Dallas -3

Total: Under 42

Sun – (4:00 pm ET) Washington at St. Louis (+3) o/u 45

I’m the first to admit when I’m wrong.  I had the Lions blowing out the Rams in Week 1 but the St. Louis Rams more than held their own against an extremely high powered offensive machine in the Detroit Lions.  Sam Bradford now has some weapons to help him and I think they will put up some more points this season than last but I’m not sure they are ready for the explosiveness Robert Griffin III brings to the table.  This guy is for real and he proved it last week against the Saints in New Orleans.  I think this game will be high scoring and pretty much as close as the Vegas line but I do like the Redskins to cover and the game to go over.

Line: Washington -3

Total: Over 45

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) New York Jets @ Pittsburgh (-5) o/u 41

The Jets also performed MUCH better than I gave them credit for in a Week 1 romp over the overmatched Buffalo Bills.  They performed well on both offense and defense but I think the most telling sign of the game was the performance of Sanchez.  If this dirty man can keep up half this pace for the season this team will be dangerous.  I don’t count on this happening, but hey, who knows.  Pittsburgh opened in the Mile High City and the Broncos were not in a friendly or welcoming mood as Payton Manning displayed his pre injury dominance in handling the Steelers top rated D with 3 straight 80 yard drives.  Sanchez won’t perform anywhere near as well and I expect The Steelers home crowd to boost the energy even further.  I like the Steelers to cover 5 and the over in this game.

Line: Pittsburgh -5

Total: Over 41

Sun – (4:25 pm ET) Tennessee @ San Diego (-6) o/u 43

Sand Diego handled the Raiders in Oakland on that atrocious field, but they did not do as well as I had expected.  There Is a better chance of offense this week against Tennessee who was overmatched in Week 1 against the New England Patriots.  I like Jake Locker a lot but as I said last week, I think it will take some time for him to develop the type of passing game and consistency necessary to compete in the NFL.  I like Tennessee a little bit more than some people, especially in this game against the Chargers who are undeniably the slowest starting team in the last 20 years.  They always seem to pull it out but they laid some eggs to start the season and I can see this team hurting to cover six points.

Line: Tennessee (+6)

Total: Over 43

Sunday Night Football

Sun – (8:25 pm ET) Detroit @ San Francisco (-6.5) o/u 45

San Francisco went in to Green Bay on the NFL’s opening week and handled their business.  This team looks a lot like the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  Unbelievable defense with a mediocre QB that can take his team a long way by limiting turnovers and simply managing his team to a few touchdowns.  They beat Green Bay and put a significant amount of points.  I like this team a lot.  But, Green Bay still put up some points.  Detroit can score some points as well.  I see this game being a lot lower scoring than 45 points but I like the Lions to keep it real close and possibly go into San Francisco and steal a win.  Lions to cover 6.5 in a low scoring affair.

Line: Lions +6.5

Total: Under 45

Monday Night Football

Mon – (10:15pm ET) Denver @ Atlanta (-3) o/u 51

This game is going to be high scoring.  Both teams put on a serious offensive display in Week 1 and I like some fireworks again in Week 2.  The over on this game is all but guaranteed and Manning and Ryan will both score some points for their teams.  My biggest issue with this is I can’t tell either way who wins this game and I don’t like Atlanta to cover -3.  This is a tricky game and I wouldn’t put money on the line but I like the over.

Line: Denver + 3

Total: Over 51

 

Week 1 Lock: Over 51 Denver Vs. Atlanta

Week 1 Avoid: Minnesota Vs. Indianapolis

Week 1 Parlay: 100 points to win 500 points

Baltimore +2

Dallas -3

Atl/Den over 51 points total

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Ladies & Gentlemen welcome to my weekly betting blog on Starting Fantasy Lineup.  Every week I will be giving you what I see as the best betting options for each game including the line and total score.  I’ll be giving you one Lock and one Avoid bet every week as well as a suggested parlay that I myself with be putting my hard earned “imaginary” (cough) money on every week.  Feel free to ask me any questions during the week or on game day on Twitter @ErikTheLineMan

Week 1:

For all you bettors out there, the best place to make some money betting football games is early in the season.  The experts in Vegas have no solid numbers or performances to work with early on and with the right picks, there is money to be made early in the year.  If you’re smart and place the right bets, you can start your season with some money in the bank to play with.

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Philadelphia at Cleveland (+9) o/u 43

The Eagles return this season healthy and with both their offense and defense completely healthy.  The off-season tragedy surrounding Andy Reid seems not to be a distraction and with an offense that features the speed/explosiveness of Vick, McCoy, Jackson and Maclin this team is a threat to score 45 points any time they step on the field.  The Cleveland Browns on the other hand are in rebuilding mode yet again.  With an offense featuring rookies at QB, RB and WR, this team figures to struggle more than a little, especially early.  With the health and Week 1 productivity of Trent Richardson already taking a hit with his pre-season knee scope and subsequent missed time, I see a pretty ugly game for the Browns in Cleveland to open the season.  The Eagles are GIVING 9 points right now and I see them covering this and likely winning by a number closer to 14.

Line: Philadelphia – 9

Total: Over 43 points

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Washington at New Orleans (-10) o/u 50.5

The Saints off-season troubles have been well documented but I see little reason to doubt Drew Brees’ ability to run this team in the absence of Sean Payton.  In addition to Brees this team returns All Pro TE in Graham and a bevy of starting talent at WR and RB.  Although their defense will suffer slightly with the losses due to suspension (especially in regards to Jonathan Vilma) this team was never designed to win on the defensive side of the ball and this season is no different.  The Redskins have made major improvements on offensive with the addition of RGIII and Pierre Garcon but this team is still probably a year or two away from serious contention the competitive NFC East.  They have a very stout defense but with an offense that will struggle to begin with I think they may be very overmatched with Brees and Co.  I think the Saints will cover the points but the total in this game will be a little lower than most people – and the experts in Vegas – expect.

Line: Saints -10

Total: Under 50.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Atlanta at Kansas City (+1) o/u 43.5

Atlanta is a team that has talent and experience all over the field on both offense and defense and along with the Panthers, are serious threats to take over the New Orleans Saints as the leader of the division.  With the stud QB, RB, WR, WR, TE combo of Ryan, Turner, White, Jones & Gonzalez this team will be very hard to stop on offense.  Kansas City is a team with injuries and inconsistencies all over the field.  There are serious question marks at QB with Matt Cassell and Jamal Charles is coming off a torn ACL, leaving this offense with few other options.  I see Atlanta winning this game by at least seven and probably putting up 35 points by themselves.

Line: Atlanta -1

Total: Over 43.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) St. Louis at Detroit (-9) o/u 45.5

The Rams and Sam Bradford took a step backward in the former #1 pick’s Sophomore season and things might be more of the same this year.  With the aging and potential decline of Steven Jackson and the lack of any sort of talent at WR this team may struggle to put up points no matter what Sam Bradford does.  Although St. Louis has a weak division is likely to win a few more games than last season, an opening game matchup with Matt Stafford and Megatron is probably not going to be one of those wins.  Detroit’s offense was an absolute juggernaut last season and with everyone back healthy there is little reason to doubt they will put up close to the same numbers this season.  I like Detroit GIVING 9 points and think they might win this one in a blowout and get close to the total of 45.5 by themselves

Line: Detroit -9

Total: Over 45.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Indianapolis at Chicago (-11) o/u 43.5

Indy without Peyton Manning at quarterback is something we all knew we’d see eventually.  We just didn’t think we’d ever see him in another jersey.  With Manning gone and the hopes of the franchise riding on Andrew Luck, Indy looks to start its rebuilding project with a matchup against the heavily favored Bears.  Chicago has added wideouts Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and now boast some imposing size to go with the speed of Devin Hester at wideout. The addition of Michael Bush in the backfield to spell Matt Forte is an often overlooked addition.  This Bears team should be solid but I think many people are seriously overlooking Indianapolis and their ability to score some points.  There Bears defense is getting old in a hurry and I think that Luck and the Colts will surprise some people this week even thought they will not be able to consistently get it done.  I like Indy to cover here

Line: Indianapolis +11

Total: Over 43.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Jacksonville at Minnesota (-4.5) o/u 39.5

Both of these teams have struggling second year quarterbacks and questions at running back with AP coming over knee surgery and MJD missing all of preseason due to a contract dispute.  Both of these teams will most likely find themselves picking in the Top 5-7 this offseason and when it comes to betting I like to stay away from games like this.  There is just too many question from both teams for me to risk anything with this game.  But in the case of fairness I will at least give you my picks

Line: Jacksonville +4.5

Total: Under 39.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) New England at Tennessee (+7) o/u 47

New England is the same team we all saw last season.  Loaded on offense.  They have also done much to address their deficiencies on defense as well.  Tom Brady, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, and the soon to emerge second year rookie back Stevan Ridley will make this yet another year off high scoring in Foxboro.  Much as I said with the Saints before, this is a team that is built to win with its offense and barring a major injury to Tom Brady, this should continue in 2012.  The Titans come in to the game with the first full season with Jake Locker at QB.  Locker is an immensely gifted athlete and may fly under the radar early in the season but by the halfway point could emerge as a future star.  I think he’s that good.  While I see a bright future for Locker I don’t think things work out all that well for his Titans in the game and like the Patriots to cover the spread

Line: New England -7

Total: Over 47

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Miami at Houston (-12) o/u 42.5

Miami has had an interested camp as many people saw on HBO’s Hard Knocks.  With the addition of rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, the additions of free agents Chad Johnson and David Garrard and last years breakout season from Reggie Bush this team seemed to be an interesting choice for HBO’s preseason staple.  Then the wheels fell off.  Johnson head butted his wife and was subsequently arrest and cut.  David Garrard injured his knee in the pool with his children and was cut and the Dolphins just could not seem to find a groove all pre-season.  I expect much more of the same for them in the regular season.  Their defense failed to upgrade major needs and did themselves no favors in trading away Vontae Davis to the Colts, even though the former 1^st Round Pick never lived up to expectations and played at a level much below that of the Dolphins next pick in the draft, 2^nd Round pick Sean Smith.  The Dolphins will struggle on offense and an overmatched defense will see much too much time on the field.  Expect the Dolphins to pick in the Top 5 again next season.  As far as the Texans go, a running back tandem of Arian Foster and Ben Tate has every AFC South defense worried.  With veteran Matt Schaub steering the ship this team could contend for the division if both he and Andre Johnson can stay on the field.  The Texans boast a stout defense and figure to be much too much for the Dolphins to handle and I think twelve points is an easy number to cover

Line: Houston -12

Total: Over 42.5

Sun – (1:00pm ET) Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-2.5) o/u 39

The Jets have certainly not come out of the gates looking like they are going to score many points. I get that it’s only the preseason but their offense looked downright abysmal and their poor quarterback play from last year seems to be unchanged. They have a solid defense but if the Jets offense is going 3 and out every possession it’s going to make for a long tired season for the Jets ‘D’. Buffalo on the other hand has made major improvements on the defensive side of the ball.  With an offense led by veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills also return two major long-term deal players in Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson who should now be happy with their future financial security.  Emerging star CJ Spiller is boosted by 3^rd Round Pick TJ Graham and the returning receiving combo of Jones/Nelson.  I am looking forward to taking the Bills to win in this game and I think they put up more points than people are giving them credit for.  I also see a defensive score or two for the Bills here and like them by at least a touchdown. With the Bills GETTING 2.5 points this one is easy

Line: Buffalo +2.5 points

Total: Over 39 points

Sun – (4:25pm ET) Seattle at Arizona (+1.5) o/u 40.5

Russell Wilson.  Keep that name in mind.  It might pay dividends in a two QB league or as an injury fill in but I don’t think it will ultimately mean much for the fate of the Seahawks this season.  With a glut of WR its hard to predict who will be playing from week to week let alone who will be catching passes from Wilson and I think this hurts his fantasy ability as well as Seattle’s chance for a win in this game.  Don’t get me wrong, the Cardinbals are not much better but with the addition of Michael Floyd across from Larry Fitzgerald their passing game immediately becomes much more dangerous.  I think both team will struggle this season and this game is way too close for me to take a chance on but again, here is what I think

Line: Arizona +1.5

Total: Under 40.5

Sun – (4:25pm ET) Carolina at Tampa Bay (+1) o/u 47

Both of these teams have young, mobile, athletic quarterbacks but I there is a HUGE difference between Josh Freeman and Cam Netwon.  Newton re-wrote the record books during his rookie season and although 14 rushing TD’s might be a bit much to ask this season, I think Cam play to the same if not better numbers. Cam seems to have a good rep Steve Smith and this team might have the best rushing tandem outside of Houston in Williams and Stewart. This does not bode well for Tampa Bay or any other defense in the NFC South. Tampa Bay upgraded at both WR and RB with the signing of Vincent Jackson and the selection of Doug Martin in the draft.  While I think both will be productive and have decent fantasy seasons, I don’t see this team doing well in a VERY tough division that includes the Saints, Falcons and their Week 1 opponent Panthers.  I was surprised when the line came out for this game as I thought I would see Carolina favored by at least a field goal.  With the Panthers only having to cover one point I think this is an easy bet.

Line: Carolina -1

Total: Under 47

Sun – (4:25pm ET) San Francisco at Green Bay (-5) o/u 47

Two good defenses.  Two interesting offenses.  Both the Packers and the 49ers sport very solid defenses.  Both have very interesting offenses, but for different reasons.  The statistical season Rodgers put up last year is something I think we will see again this year.  He has everyone back on offense and the Packers went out and made an under the radar signing in camp with the addition of Cedric Benson, a proven veteran with the ability and willingness to pound the ball inside, something this team has lacked the last few season.  The 49ers offense has added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham after in interesting off-season that saw them go after Peyton Manning in free agency but ultimately miss out.  Alex Smith came whimpering back with his tail between his legs and will again be tasked with the “game manager” duties at QB.  While I like San Fran’s defense and their potential on offense, I think Rodgers and the packers at home will ultimately be too much for them to handle and I like the Packers to cover the 5 points

Line: Green Bay -5

Total: Under 47

Sun – (8:20pm ET) Pittsburgh at Denver (pick) o/u 44.5

Mark my words.  This game is going to be a shootout.  This is not the same Steelers team that stayed on the ground in Big Ben’s first few seasons.  New Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley will have this team throwing often and with the deep threat potential of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, this team will put up some numbers in the passing game.  The Steelers always stout defense has done a good job of replacing aging veterans with young studs and this years D will again be one of the best in AFC.  I just don’t know if it will matter on the big stage of Sunday Night Football in Denver for Peyton Manning’s introduction to the mile high faithful.  Manning has something to prove.  That is plain to see.  Although he struggled early in the preseason I chalk it up to the rust of more than a year off and a completely new offense and team around him.  Manning will throw early and he will throw it all game long.  I see this game approaching 55-60 points and really like the over.  With this being a pick game the choice is yours but as always here it is.

Line: Denver (pick)

Total: Over 44.5

Mon – (7:00pm ET) Cincinnati at Baltimore (-6) o/u 41

Cincinnati did much better in Andy Dalton’s first season than many people expected.  I think that trend continues in season two but the always tough Baltimore D will keep Dalton and Co on their heels although the Bengals have a quietly outstanding D unit of their own.  Baltimore’s offense may be the most underperforming group I can think of in the last five years.  They are lead by a 1^st Round pick at QB, an All Pro RB in Ray Rice, and sport both veterans (Anquan Boldin) and speed (Torrey Smith) at WR as well as a very gifted pair of TE’s in Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta, yet for some reason this team just CANNOT get out of its own way on offense.  The aging defense can only do so much to help out their inconsistent offense. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are not going to be around forever.  I like Cincinnati in this one getting six points but I wouldn’t stake my mortgage on it.

Line: Cincinnati +6

Total: Under 41

Mon – (10:15pm ET) San Diego at Oakland (pick) o/u 46.5

The always enigmatic Chargers start the season with again more questions with the departure of Vincent Jackson and the always questionable health of potential stud Ryan Mathews.  Phillips Rivers is a lock for 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns but the fate of the Chargers rarely seems to rest on Rivers statistical shoulders.  An overlooked loss to Vincent Brown with hurt this receiving corps as her superb route running abilities are not available anywhere else on the roster.  If Mathews can stay healthy and Antonio Gates can stay productive this team may be a wild card entry in the playoffs but consistency has never been their strong suit and it worries me both in terms of fantasy and betting.  The Raiders may be overlooked this season with a full camp for Carson Palmer to adjust and develop with a young and talented receiving corps.  If Darren MacFadden can stay on the field (does this sound familiar) this team could surprise but with this pick game I’m taking the Chargers

Line: San Diego (pick)

Total: Under 46.5

Week 1 Lock: Detroit -9

Week 1 Avoid: Jacksonville Vs. Minnesota

Week 1 Parlay: 100 points to win 500 points

Buffalo +2.5

Carolina -1

Pitt/Den over 44.5 points total

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Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/16 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-14	St. Louis	48
10/16 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-12	Jacksonville	40
10/16 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2	At Washington	47
10/16 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-4	San Francisco	46
10/16 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-4	Carolina	51
10/16 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-7	Indianapolis	41
10/16 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-3	Buffalo	50
10/16 4:05 ET	At Baltimore	-8	Houston	44.5
10/16 4:05 ET	At Oakland	-6.5	Cleveland	44.5
10/16 4:15 ET	At New England	-6.5	Dallas	55.5
10/16 4:15 ET	New Orleans	-4.5	At Tampa Bay	49.5

Sunday Night Football Line

10/16 8:30 ET

At Chicago

-3

Minnesota

41.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/17 8:35 ET

At NY Jets

-7

Miami

42.5

I’M TAKING

At Green Bay -14 St Louis

St Louis can’t get out of their own way and Green Bay’s passing attack is top notch.  There has not been a team yet this season that has stopped Aaron Rodgers, and his only “down” game this season was last Week in Atlanta when the Packers STILL covered the spread.  St. Louis, as I’ve been saying all season, may be competing with the Dolphins as the worst team in the league.  Sam Bradford will be spending a lot of time on his back and on the sidelines watching Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic at home at Lambeau.  This might be my favorite game of the week and I’ll take the Packers to cover -14.

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s defense has flown slightly under the radar this season but they just aren’t capable of keeping up with Big Ben.  It’s seems Mr. Handsy finally got his act together last week and threw for 5 TD’s in a big win.  Blaine Gabbert looks like he could be a good QB in the future but a road game at Heinz Field with the Steelers blitz packages ruining his day will certainly not make him look good.  I think Jacksonville will try to control the clock and pound the ball with MJD early, but I see the Steelers getting up by 14 at the half and not looking back.  I like Pittsburgh to cover -12 at home against an inexperienced Jags squad.

At Detroit -4 San Francisco

If anyone tells you that they thought SF and Detroit would be a combined 9-1 going into this game, they would either be lying, or should be passing you whatever they’re smoking on.  With Detroit’s stable of 1^st round/ high round picks it’s not hard to see why they’re successful.  But, SF is essentially getting the job done with retreads and a QB that was left for dead no less than two times since being taken #1 overall ahead of Mr. Aaron Rodgers.  SF has taken big steps forward this year un Harbaugh and I see them winning their weak division this season, but I just think that Detroit is too good not to win at home by a least a TD.  Stafford and Megatron have been on the same page all year and they show zero signs of being stopped.  Although I think SF keeps it relatively close, I like Detroit to cover -4 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At New England -6.5 Dallas

To tell you the truth I actually think I would bet Dallas getting 6.5 points in this game but Tom Brady’s ability to lead this team to a win and to dominate games at home scares the hell out of me.  Dallas offense is finally healthy coming off the bye week and New England’s last ranked defense can’t stop the pass at all, and in all honesty its flat out pathetic.  I think Dallas is actually going to pull out the win in this game.  I like the Cowboys with points but it’s in no way a safe bet.  I wouldn’t put money on this game unless you’re feeling lucky because it could swing back and forth all day and end up going either way

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis

Indy might be a disappointing team at 0-5 but since their switch to Curtis Painter they’ve been in every game and it’s been pretty close.  Cincy has a good defense and can keep their inconsistent offense in games.  I think Cincy has a chance to cover -7 and will probably do it.  My biggest issue is with betting the game, not the actual game.  You need to put your money on the safest games possible if you hope to win and with two unbelievably up and down teams like this, nothing is assured.  I stay away from games like these every Sunday and you should too.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Chicago -3 Minnesota

I’ve been down on Minnesota all season and I don’t care if they rode Adrian Peterson’s monster first half to a win last week.  They suck, McNabb sucks and they are a horrible team to put your money on.  Although Chicago hasn’t looked stellar so far this season they have the better team and its not up for debate.  With the home team only getting -3 points it makes you take a second to consider the game because Vegas is giving Minnesota more than a punchers chance in this one but I don’t like the Vikings at all this season and I’ll take Chicago to cover -3 at home.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At New York Jets -7 Miami

These two teams are both playing very ugly, unwatchable football this season, with Miami playing only slightly worse than the super talented Jets.  Miami is starting their backup QB Matt Moore this week and I think that even with the added time to prep with the bye week last week Miami still goes to the Jets and gets beat.  This game is going to be an ugly ass game to watch though and very easily could end up 14-6 the way these two teams are playing.  I don’t like this game to bet at all, but if you’re looking for my thoughts, I think the Jets bounce Miami and BARELY cover -7 points.

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Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/9 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-2.5	Kansas City	38.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-2.5	Arizona	45
10/9 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2.5	At Buffalo	50
10/9 1:00 ET	At Houston	-6	Oakland	48.5
10/9 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-6.5	At Carolina	51.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Jacksonville	-2.5	Cincinnati	36.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3	Tennessee	39.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-10	Seattle	43.5
10/9 4:05 ET	At San Francisco	-3	Tampa Bay	41
10/9 4:15 ET	At New England	-9	NY Jets	49
10/9 4:15 ET	San Diego	-4	At Denver	46

Sunday Night Football Line

10/9 8:30 ET

Green Bay

-5.5

At Atlanta

53

Monday Night Football Line

10/10 8:35 ET	At Detroit	-5.5	Chicago	47.5

I’M TAKING

At Minnesota -2.5 Arizona

Minnesota is just plain bad.  Andy Reid looks smarter everyday for jettisoning #5 to the division rival Redskins last season.  We all see how well he worked out in Washington…..so well that Shannahan and Son felt more comfortable going with the always reliable Rex Grossman and Franchise QB to be John Beck.  Ouch.  The only thing Minnesota has going for them besides Adrian Peterson is that Christian Ponder can’t look any worse than an aging, 30 pound overweight, noodle armed McNabb.  Arizona seems to have resurrected their running game with a healthy Beanie Wells who had a monster day this past Sunday.  Although Kolb still hasn’t really found his way yet, I like him better than McNabb who’s top two receivers last week were both tight ends who finished with less than 60 yards each.  I think Arizona wins this game outright and they have the type of team speed that translates well in dome conditions.  I’m taking Arizona +2.5 points.

New Orleans -6.5 At Carolina

Carolina is much improved and with Cam Newton under center they are a threat to go the distance every time they are on the field.  I just don’t think their defense can keep up with the Saints offense enough that the Saints don’t win by at least seven points.  Cam Newton has come down a bit off the cloud he was floating on his first two weeks and now that teams have more film on him and a better idea that his only real target is pocket rocket Steve Smith, I just think they are outmatched on Sunday.  I can easily see this game ending in the 60 total point range or higher but with just -6.5 points to cover I think its safe to take New Orleans.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

Oakland -5 At Houston

Oakland is much better than many people have been giving them credit for.  Darren McFadden is a top running back and Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing this offense.  Oh yeah, and Al “The Crypt Keeper” Davis has now passed away giving Oakland an added incentive and emotional boost.  Houston is good but they have no Andre Johnson and Arian foster still is not at full strength.  I think Houston may hang on for the win, but I have little faith in them covering -5.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Green Bay -6 At Atlanta

I know all about Atlanta’s insane home record but there are a few things that concern me with the Falcons this year.  Michael Turner has a ton of miles on his legs and seems to be slowing a bit other than his constant threat near the end zone and this team just doesn’t seem to have much in the way of big game wins.  Green Bay would certainly be a big time win for them but with these two teams being essentially composed of the same parts as last year’s squads, Atlanta could be in for a beating.  We all remember the 27 point beating in the divisional round of the playoffs last year (GB 48-ATL 21) and although I don’t see this happening, I think Green Bay easily covers -6 points in a win.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Detroit -5.5 At Chicago

Everyone knows about Detroit’s offense by now and its no surprise how good they are with 1^st round picks all over the field but I think the story of this game might be more about Chicago’s pitiful, aging defense.  People have been continuing to give this D credit based on past performance and it is simply no longer warranted.  They are flat out not a good defense anymore.  Detroit can put up points in bunches and I like them to cover -5.5 at home against Da Bears.

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Lines Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/2 1:00 ET	At Dallas	-2.5	Detroit	46
10/2 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-7	At Jacksonville	45
10/2 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-9.5	San Francisco	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Washington	-2.5	At St. Louis	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Cleveland	-1	Tennessee	39
10/2 1:00 ET	Buffalo	-3	At Cincinnati	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Minnesota	-3	At Kansas City	39.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-6.5	Carolina	42.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Houston	-3.5	Pittsburgh	45
10/2 4:05 ET	Atlanta	-4.5	At Seattle	38.5
10/2 4:05 ET	NY Giants	-1	At Arizona	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-7	Miami	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At Green Bay	-12	Denver	46
10/2 4:15 ET	New England	-5	At Oakland	55
10/2 8:25 ET	At Baltimore	-3.5	NY Jets	42

Monday Night Football Line

10/3 8:35 ET	At Tampa Bay	-10	Indianapolis	40.5

I’M TAKING

At Dallas -2.5 Detroit

Dallas is a decent team with talent all over the field but they are dealing with injuries everywhere and are coming of a home win that they had to sneak out at the last second against Rex Grossman and the Redskins.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  The Lions are healthy, loaded and most of all undefeated and playing with tons of confidence.  I’m taking Detroit getting 2.5 points on the road in Dallas

New England -5 At Oakland

Coming off a loss to a team they thought they should have beat the Patriots will be out for blood.  This team was embarrassed last week in Buffalo as Brady threw 4 picks and they left Orchard Park with their tails between their legs.  Look for Belichik and Co to put a world class beating on the overmatched Raiders in Oakland.  Brady will get back on track with 4 TD’s minimum and I’m more confident in the Pats covering -5 points than any other pick I’ve made so far this season.

Atlanta -4.5 At Seattle

The Seahawks are terrible.  They can’t run, they can’t pass and they can’t play D.  Not a good thing when Matt Ryan and his boys come to town.  Seattle is notorious for having a deafeningly loud stadium but that is not going to help their shaky D cover an Atlanta team 2 deep at all playmaking positions that also rolls out a Top 5 WR, Top 5 RB and a potential Top 5 TE in Tony Gonzalez.  Take the Dirty Birds to cover the spread and rest easily on your couch watching them laugh at -4.5 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Philadelphia -9.5 San Francisco

When Philly is good they are unstoppable.  The problem is, Vick is banged up AGAIN this week and even though he looks like a go, this team, despite their immense talent is just too hot and cold right now for me to count on them covering almost ten points.  Now, they easily could win by 21 but on the other hand, they could also win by a last second field goal.  They’ve not looked like the team prognosticators had them being so far this season and until they can prove consistently that they are a real Top 5 team, I cannot count on them to cover -9.5 points.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

Buffalo -3 At Cincinnati

The Bills are the better team and should win this game, but as so often happens after an emotional game, teams sometimes come out with an emotional letdown the following week.  Not saying its going to happen but it could and Vegas thinks so as eveidenced by being only a 3 point road favorite on the road.  Cincy has a good defense, probably the best the Bills have seen this season (not saying much) but I just smell a very close game and maybe even a 1 point loss for the Bills.  I just don’t feel like this is a safe bet and there are much better games to place your money on.

Washington – 2.5 At St. Louis

Ugliest game of the week. Could go either way, don’t go near it.

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The Lines

1:00

At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco

New England -9 At Buffalo

At New Orleans -4 Houston

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants

At Cleveland -2.5 Miami

At Tennessee -7 Denver

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville

4:00

At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City

NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta

Arizona -3 At Seattle

Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Hello everyone.  I’ve been tasked with doing a weekly write-up here on Starting Fantasy Lineup about my thoughts on the betting lines for each weeks games.  I’ll be giving you a few games I’ll be putting my own money on (literally) as well as a few games to be careful with and three games every week you should avoid like the plague.  I’ll also be tracking my success weekly with my games to keep an overall record by seasons end.  I’m available at @ErikTheLineMan on Twitter so if you have any questions about this or any weeks games, feel free to ask away and I’ll give you my thoughts.  I’ll also be submitting last minute line changes to the site so that you have an accurate look at what the point spreads are looking like just before kickoff.  Thanks, and I look forward to hopefully help you win some money!

I’M TAKING

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

It could be a long day for the Rams with the Ravens coming to town.  Although they came out flat on the road against Tennessee last week expect the veteran laden Ravens to show up in St. Louis with their hard hats ready to work.  I see the Ravens in line for a big day offensively, especially if Joe Flacco can find Lee Evans or Anquan Boldin open downfield as much as Hicks, Manningham and Hixon were in Week 2’s Monday Night game.  The Rams struggled against the relentless Giants pass rush and Bradford had trouble finding time to allow his receivers to get open against a horribly depleted Giants secondary.  He put up some decent yards but was pitiful inside the red zone excluding a BEAUTIFUL leaping catch by a much taller Denario Alexander, couldn’t get the ball across the goal line.  Week 3 does not bode much better for Bradford as Baltimore can bring the rush as well as any team in the league and Haloti Ngata and Co. do not allow much in the way of running room, especially in tight near the goal line.  Even if a banged up Steven Jackson returns he’s going to have a tough go of it.  If the line stays at Baltimore -6.5 or under by game time I’m banking on this game especially if it stays around -3.5 points.

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

Pittsburgh looked awful in a Week 1 blowout loss to the division rival Ravens, but bounced back in a big way in Week 2, albeit was to a Seahawks team that could easily go 2-14 in the worst division in football.  I think the Steelers game was a good tune-up opportunity for Big Ben and his boys to get things back on track and moving in the right direction.  They couldn’t have landed any better look at another win than playing a reeling Colts team in the dome in Indy.  The Steelers have 3 burners at WR and the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium makes for a perfect storm for Roethlisberger to chuck the ball all over the place.  I’m sure this is not the matchup the NFL Scheduling Department had in mind when Peyton Manning was to be the starter and it is going to be a painful game to watch Sunday night for Indy fans.   Indy’s playbook is a daunting read and asking anyone outside of Rainman to digest it in two or three weeks is downright impossible.  Kerry Collins has looked his age in both games so far and the fact he’s even playing should shed some light on the abilities of Curtis Painter and the little faith the Colts front office has in him.  I’m guessing a Steelers team fresh off a shutout is not what Kerry Collins was hoping for this weekend.   This game will be ugly and I think the Steelers win on the road and cover -10.5 in a laugher.

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

When was the last time Detroit was a road favorite?  My guess….probably sometime during the Clinton Administration when actually having talent was a requirement for television, but I digress.   Detroit looks be the real deal and on the brink of a breakout season.  With a healthy Matthew Stafford finally showing signs of why he was taken #1 overall in 2009 and the always dangerous Megatron, it appears this team could be a legit threat to the Pack for the division title and at the least a Wild Card team come January.  Keep in mind Stafford is the same quarterback that held the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie until Cam Newton’s week 1 performance and still holds the record for most TD’s in a game by a rookie QB with 5.  The kid can flat out play.  That’s to say nothing of the Ndamukong Suh led defense that is quickly becoming one of the most feared units in the NFC possibly behind only division rival Green Bay.  McNabb has lost more than a step as evidenced by the Vikes converting just one third down in the 2^nd half in the first two games (1 for 8).  Adrian Peterson can’t do it all, especially when McNabb can’t get out of his own way and teams stack 8 in the box.  Detroit covers -3.5.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Tony Romo suffered a cracked rib and punctured lung and still managed to come back and lead his team back to victory.  His status for Week 3 is clearly up in the air but I think John Kitna may be one of the best backup in the league as it means in regards to getting a win.  He looked good when called upon last week and had a decent season coming in after Romo broke his collarbone last year.  I think the Redskins are absolutely dreadful and I’m shocked they are sitting at 2-0.  Rex Grossman is a 5 INT game waiting to happen and he is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure which you know DeMarcus Ware & Co. are more than capable of bringing.  I’m just worried about the injuries to Romo, Miles Austin and the uncertain status of Dez Bryant.  I still think the Cowboys win this game but I’m just not sure they can cover -5.5 points with the injuries going on.  If the line drops a little lower I’d feel much better seeing them cover -3, but I still think you might be ok at -5.5 at home.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Philadelphia -5.5  NYG

Vick suffered a concussion last week against ATL and with the strict standards regarding concussions in the NFL the last few years Vick is going to be put through a barrage of tests to verify his safety before stepping out on the field Sunday. As of today’s writing (Wed 9/21) he had yet to take much less pass any of these tests.  The Eagles are “optimistic” he will start Sunday but if you take a team’s word at face value before the starting lineups have been submitted, you might need some crazy pills.  If Vick can’t go I see zero way Mike Kafka leads this team to a victory let alone cover -5.5 points.  If Vick does start the chances increase dramatically, even if he’s banged up.  But if you ask me, this paragraph contains WAY too many “ifs” and when it comes to betting that’s exactly the type of scenario you are looking to avoid. This game just has way too many question marks for me to feel safe about

At Cincinnati -2.5  San Francisco

Andy Dalton Vs. Alex Smith.  This game is going to be a QB lover’s wet dr….. Kidding of course.  This game is going to be a coin-toss plain and simple.  These two teams are just waaaay too up and (mostly) down to go anywhere near until further notice.  A recent history of ineptitude, Shaky QB’s and a lack of consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball for Cincy and San Francisco leave this game to be an absolute crapshoot.  Both teams have shown flashes this season, but almost always follow them up with head scratching plays.  I think SF is the better team, but there’s just no way to tell how this game ends and I want nothing to do with it.  I’m staying away and you should too.

At Cleveland -2.5  Miami

See above…..

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