Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/16 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-14	St. Louis	48
10/16 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-12	Jacksonville	40
10/16 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2	At Washington	47
10/16 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-4	San Francisco	46
10/16 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-4	Carolina	51
10/16 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-7	Indianapolis	41
10/16 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-3	Buffalo	50
10/16 4:05 ET	At Baltimore	-8	Houston	44.5
10/16 4:05 ET	At Oakland	-6.5	Cleveland	44.5
10/16 4:15 ET	At New England	-6.5	Dallas	55.5
10/16 4:15 ET	New Orleans	-4.5	At Tampa Bay	49.5

Sunday Night Football Line

10/16 8:30 ET

At Chicago

-3

Minnesota

41.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/17 8:35 ET

At NY Jets

-7

Miami

42.5

I’M TAKING

At Green Bay -14 St Louis

St Louis can’t get out of their own way and Green Bay’s passing attack is top notch.  There has not been a team yet this season that has stopped Aaron Rodgers, and his only “down” game this season was last Week in Atlanta when the Packers STILL covered the spread.  St. Louis, as I’ve been saying all season, may be competing with the Dolphins as the worst team in the league.  Sam Bradford will be spending a lot of time on his back and on the sidelines watching Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic at home at Lambeau.  This might be my favorite game of the week and I’ll take the Packers to cover -14.

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s defense has flown slightly under the radar this season but they just aren’t capable of keeping up with Big Ben.  It’s seems Mr. Handsy finally got his act together last week and threw for 5 TD’s in a big win.  Blaine Gabbert looks like he could be a good QB in the future but a road game at Heinz Field with the Steelers blitz packages ruining his day will certainly not make him look good.  I think Jacksonville will try to control the clock and pound the ball with MJD early, but I see the Steelers getting up by 14 at the half and not looking back.  I like Pittsburgh to cover -12 at home against an inexperienced Jags squad.

At Detroit -4 San Francisco

If anyone tells you that they thought SF and Detroit would be a combined 9-1 going into this game, they would either be lying, or should be passing you whatever they’re smoking on.  With Detroit’s stable of 1^st round/ high round picks it’s not hard to see why they’re successful.  But, SF is essentially getting the job done with retreads and a QB that was left for dead no less than two times since being taken #1 overall ahead of Mr. Aaron Rodgers.  SF has taken big steps forward this year un Harbaugh and I see them winning their weak division this season, but I just think that Detroit is too good not to win at home by a least a TD.  Stafford and Megatron have been on the same page all year and they show zero signs of being stopped.  Although I think SF keeps it relatively close, I like Detroit to cover -4 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At New England -6.5 Dallas

To tell you the truth I actually think I would bet Dallas getting 6.5 points in this game but Tom Brady’s ability to lead this team to a win and to dominate games at home scares the hell out of me.  Dallas offense is finally healthy coming off the bye week and New England’s last ranked defense can’t stop the pass at all, and in all honesty its flat out pathetic.  I think Dallas is actually going to pull out the win in this game.  I like the Cowboys with points but it’s in no way a safe bet.  I wouldn’t put money on this game unless you’re feeling lucky because it could swing back and forth all day and end up going either way

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis

Indy might be a disappointing team at 0-5 but since their switch to Curtis Painter they’ve been in every game and it’s been pretty close.  Cincy has a good defense and can keep their inconsistent offense in games.  I think Cincy has a chance to cover -7 and will probably do it.  My biggest issue is with betting the game, not the actual game.  You need to put your money on the safest games possible if you hope to win and with two unbelievably up and down teams like this, nothing is assured.  I stay away from games like these every Sunday and you should too.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Chicago -3 Minnesota

I’ve been down on Minnesota all season and I don’t care if they rode Adrian Peterson’s monster first half to a win last week.  They suck, McNabb sucks and they are a horrible team to put your money on.  Although Chicago hasn’t looked stellar so far this season they have the better team and its not up for debate.  With the home team only getting -3 points it makes you take a second to consider the game because Vegas is giving Minnesota more than a punchers chance in this one but I don’t like the Vikings at all this season and I’ll take Chicago to cover -3 at home.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At New York Jets -7 Miami

These two teams are both playing very ugly, unwatchable football this season, with Miami playing only slightly worse than the super talented Jets.  Miami is starting their backup QB Matt Moore this week and I think that even with the added time to prep with the bye week last week Miami still goes to the Jets and gets beat.  This game is going to be an ugly ass game to watch though and very easily could end up 14-6 the way these two teams are playing.  I don’t like this game to bet at all, but if you’re looking for my thoughts, I think the Jets bounce Miami and BARELY cover -7 points.

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Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/9 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-2.5	Kansas City	38.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-2.5	Arizona	45
10/9 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2.5	At Buffalo	50
10/9 1:00 ET	At Houston	-6	Oakland	48.5
10/9 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-6.5	At Carolina	51.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Jacksonville	-2.5	Cincinnati	36.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3	Tennessee	39.5
10/9 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-10	Seattle	43.5
10/9 4:05 ET	At San Francisco	-3	Tampa Bay	41
10/9 4:15 ET	At New England	-9	NY Jets	49
10/9 4:15 ET	San Diego	-4	At Denver	46

Sunday Night Football Line

10/9 8:30 ET

Green Bay

-5.5

At Atlanta

53

Monday Night Football Line

10/10 8:35 ET	At Detroit	-5.5	Chicago	47.5

I’M TAKING

At Minnesota -2.5 Arizona

Minnesota is just plain bad.  Andy Reid looks smarter everyday for jettisoning #5 to the division rival Redskins last season.  We all see how well he worked out in Washington…..so well that Shannahan and Son felt more comfortable going with the always reliable Rex Grossman and Franchise QB to be John Beck.  Ouch.  The only thing Minnesota has going for them besides Adrian Peterson is that Christian Ponder can’t look any worse than an aging, 30 pound overweight, noodle armed McNabb.  Arizona seems to have resurrected their running game with a healthy Beanie Wells who had a monster day this past Sunday.  Although Kolb still hasn’t really found his way yet, I like him better than McNabb who’s top two receivers last week were both tight ends who finished with less than 60 yards each.  I think Arizona wins this game outright and they have the type of team speed that translates well in dome conditions.  I’m taking Arizona +2.5 points.

New Orleans -6.5 At Carolina

Carolina is much improved and with Cam Newton under center they are a threat to go the distance every time they are on the field.  I just don’t think their defense can keep up with the Saints offense enough that the Saints don’t win by at least seven points.  Cam Newton has come down a bit off the cloud he was floating on his first two weeks and now that teams have more film on him and a better idea that his only real target is pocket rocket Steve Smith, I just think they are outmatched on Sunday.  I can easily see this game ending in the 60 total point range or higher but with just -6.5 points to cover I think its safe to take New Orleans.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

Oakland -5 At Houston

Oakland is much better than many people have been giving them credit for.  Darren McFadden is a top running back and Jason Campbell is doing a good job of managing this offense.  Oh yeah, and Al “The Crypt Keeper” Davis has now passed away giving Oakland an added incentive and emotional boost.  Houston is good but they have no Andre Johnson and Arian foster still is not at full strength.  I think Houston may hang on for the win, but I have little faith in them covering -5.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Green Bay -6 At Atlanta

I know all about Atlanta’s insane home record but there are a few things that concern me with the Falcons this year.  Michael Turner has a ton of miles on his legs and seems to be slowing a bit other than his constant threat near the end zone and this team just doesn’t seem to have much in the way of big game wins.  Green Bay would certainly be a big time win for them but with these two teams being essentially composed of the same parts as last year’s squads, Atlanta could be in for a beating.  We all remember the 27 point beating in the divisional round of the playoffs last year (GB 48-ATL 21) and although I don’t see this happening, I think Green Bay easily covers -6 points in a win.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Detroit -5.5 At Chicago

Everyone knows about Detroit’s offense by now and its no surprise how good they are with 1^st round picks all over the field but I think the story of this game might be more about Chicago’s pitiful, aging defense.  People have been continuing to give this D credit based on past performance and it is simply no longer warranted.  They are flat out not a good defense anymore.  Detroit can put up points in bunches and I like them to cover -5.5 at home against Da Bears.

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Lines Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/2 1:00 ET	At Dallas	-2.5	Detroit	46
10/2 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-7	At Jacksonville	45
10/2 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-9.5	San Francisco	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Washington	-2.5	At St. Louis	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Cleveland	-1	Tennessee	39
10/2 1:00 ET	Buffalo	-3	At Cincinnati	43.5
10/2 1:00 ET	Minnesota	-3	At Kansas City	39.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Chicago	-6.5	Carolina	42.5
10/2 1:00 ET	At Houston	-3.5	Pittsburgh	45
10/2 4:05 ET	Atlanta	-4.5	At Seattle	38.5
10/2 4:05 ET	NY Giants	-1	At Arizona	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At San Diego	-7	Miami	44.5
10/2 4:15 ET	At Green Bay	-12	Denver	46
10/2 4:15 ET	New England	-5	At Oakland	55
10/2 8:25 ET	At Baltimore	-3.5	NY Jets	42

Monday Night Football Line

10/3 8:35 ET	At Tampa Bay	-10	Indianapolis	40.5

I’M TAKING

At Dallas -2.5 Detroit

Dallas is a decent team with talent all over the field but they are dealing with injuries everywhere and are coming of a home win that they had to sneak out at the last second against Rex Grossman and the Redskins.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.  The Lions are healthy, loaded and most of all undefeated and playing with tons of confidence.  I’m taking Detroit getting 2.5 points on the road in Dallas

New England -5 At Oakland

Coming off a loss to a team they thought they should have beat the Patriots will be out for blood.  This team was embarrassed last week in Buffalo as Brady threw 4 picks and they left Orchard Park with their tails between their legs.  Look for Belichik and Co to put a world class beating on the overmatched Raiders in Oakland.  Brady will get back on track with 4 TD’s minimum and I’m more confident in the Pats covering -5 points than any other pick I’ve made so far this season.

Atlanta -4.5 At Seattle

The Seahawks are terrible.  They can’t run, they can’t pass and they can’t play D.  Not a good thing when Matt Ryan and his boys come to town.  Seattle is notorious for having a deafeningly loud stadium but that is not going to help their shaky D cover an Atlanta team 2 deep at all playmaking positions that also rolls out a Top 5 WR, Top 5 RB and a potential Top 5 TE in Tony Gonzalez.  Take the Dirty Birds to cover the spread and rest easily on your couch watching them laugh at -4.5 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Philadelphia -9.5 San Francisco

When Philly is good they are unstoppable.  The problem is, Vick is banged up AGAIN this week and even though he looks like a go, this team, despite their immense talent is just too hot and cold right now for me to count on them covering almost ten points.  Now, they easily could win by 21 but on the other hand, they could also win by a last second field goal.  They’ve not looked like the team prognosticators had them being so far this season and until they can prove consistently that they are a real Top 5 team, I cannot count on them to cover -9.5 points.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

Buffalo -3 At Cincinnati

The Bills are the better team and should win this game, but as so often happens after an emotional game, teams sometimes come out with an emotional letdown the following week.  Not saying its going to happen but it could and Vegas thinks so as eveidenced by being only a 3 point road favorite on the road.  Cincy has a good defense, probably the best the Bills have seen this season (not saying much) but I just smell a very close game and maybe even a 1 point loss for the Bills.  I just don’t feel like this is a safe bet and there are much better games to place your money on.

Washington – 2.5 At St. Louis

Ugliest game of the week. Could go either way, don’t go near it.

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The Lines

1:00

At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco

New England -9 At Buffalo

At New Orleans -4 Houston

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants

At Cleveland -2.5 Miami

At Tennessee -7 Denver

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville

4:00

At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City

NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta

Arizona -3 At Seattle

Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Hello everyone.  I’ve been tasked with doing a weekly write-up here on Starting Fantasy Lineup about my thoughts on the betting lines for each weeks games.  I’ll be giving you a few games I’ll be putting my own money on (literally) as well as a few games to be careful with and three games every week you should avoid like the plague.  I’ll also be tracking my success weekly with my games to keep an overall record by seasons end.  I’m available at @ErikTheLineMan on Twitter so if you have any questions about this or any weeks games, feel free to ask away and I’ll give you my thoughts.  I’ll also be submitting last minute line changes to the site so that you have an accurate look at what the point spreads are looking like just before kickoff.  Thanks, and I look forward to hopefully help you win some money!

I’M TAKING

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

It could be a long day for the Rams with the Ravens coming to town.  Although they came out flat on the road against Tennessee last week expect the veteran laden Ravens to show up in St. Louis with their hard hats ready to work.  I see the Ravens in line for a big day offensively, especially if Joe Flacco can find Lee Evans or Anquan Boldin open downfield as much as Hicks, Manningham and Hixon were in Week 2’s Monday Night game.  The Rams struggled against the relentless Giants pass rush and Bradford had trouble finding time to allow his receivers to get open against a horribly depleted Giants secondary.  He put up some decent yards but was pitiful inside the red zone excluding a BEAUTIFUL leaping catch by a much taller Denario Alexander, couldn’t get the ball across the goal line.  Week 3 does not bode much better for Bradford as Baltimore can bring the rush as well as any team in the league and Haloti Ngata and Co. do not allow much in the way of running room, especially in tight near the goal line.  Even if a banged up Steven Jackson returns he’s going to have a tough go of it.  If the line stays at Baltimore -6.5 or under by game time I’m banking on this game especially if it stays around -3.5 points.

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

Pittsburgh looked awful in a Week 1 blowout loss to the division rival Ravens, but bounced back in a big way in Week 2, albeit was to a Seahawks team that could easily go 2-14 in the worst division in football.  I think the Steelers game was a good tune-up opportunity for Big Ben and his boys to get things back on track and moving in the right direction.  They couldn’t have landed any better look at another win than playing a reeling Colts team in the dome in Indy.  The Steelers have 3 burners at WR and the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium makes for a perfect storm for Roethlisberger to chuck the ball all over the place.  I’m sure this is not the matchup the NFL Scheduling Department had in mind when Peyton Manning was to be the starter and it is going to be a painful game to watch Sunday night for Indy fans.   Indy’s playbook is a daunting read and asking anyone outside of Rainman to digest it in two or three weeks is downright impossible.  Kerry Collins has looked his age in both games so far and the fact he’s even playing should shed some light on the abilities of Curtis Painter and the little faith the Colts front office has in him.  I’m guessing a Steelers team fresh off a shutout is not what Kerry Collins was hoping for this weekend.   This game will be ugly and I think the Steelers win on the road and cover -10.5 in a laugher.

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

When was the last time Detroit was a road favorite?  My guess….probably sometime during the Clinton Administration when actually having talent was a requirement for television, but I digress.   Detroit looks be the real deal and on the brink of a breakout season.  With a healthy Matthew Stafford finally showing signs of why he was taken #1 overall in 2009 and the always dangerous Megatron, it appears this team could be a legit threat to the Pack for the division title and at the least a Wild Card team come January.  Keep in mind Stafford is the same quarterback that held the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie until Cam Newton’s week 1 performance and still holds the record for most TD’s in a game by a rookie QB with 5.  The kid can flat out play.  That’s to say nothing of the Ndamukong Suh led defense that is quickly becoming one of the most feared units in the NFC possibly behind only division rival Green Bay.  McNabb has lost more than a step as evidenced by the Vikes converting just one third down in the 2^nd half in the first two games (1 for 8).  Adrian Peterson can’t do it all, especially when McNabb can’t get out of his own way and teams stack 8 in the box.  Detroit covers -3.5.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Tony Romo suffered a cracked rib and punctured lung and still managed to come back and lead his team back to victory.  His status for Week 3 is clearly up in the air but I think John Kitna may be one of the best backup in the league as it means in regards to getting a win.  He looked good when called upon last week and had a decent season coming in after Romo broke his collarbone last year.  I think the Redskins are absolutely dreadful and I’m shocked they are sitting at 2-0.  Rex Grossman is a 5 INT game waiting to happen and he is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure which you know DeMarcus Ware & Co. are more than capable of bringing.  I’m just worried about the injuries to Romo, Miles Austin and the uncertain status of Dez Bryant.  I still think the Cowboys win this game but I’m just not sure they can cover -5.5 points with the injuries going on.  If the line drops a little lower I’d feel much better seeing them cover -3, but I still think you might be ok at -5.5 at home.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Philadelphia -5.5  NYG

Vick suffered a concussion last week against ATL and with the strict standards regarding concussions in the NFL the last few years Vick is going to be put through a barrage of tests to verify his safety before stepping out on the field Sunday. As of today’s writing (Wed 9/21) he had yet to take much less pass any of these tests.  The Eagles are “optimistic” he will start Sunday but if you take a team’s word at face value before the starting lineups have been submitted, you might need some crazy pills.  If Vick can’t go I see zero way Mike Kafka leads this team to a victory let alone cover -5.5 points.  If Vick does start the chances increase dramatically, even if he’s banged up.  But if you ask me, this paragraph contains WAY too many “ifs” and when it comes to betting that’s exactly the type of scenario you are looking to avoid. This game just has way too many question marks for me to feel safe about

At Cincinnati -2.5  San Francisco

Andy Dalton Vs. Alex Smith.  This game is going to be a QB lover’s wet dr….. Kidding of course.  This game is going to be a coin-toss plain and simple.  These two teams are just waaaay too up and (mostly) down to go anywhere near until further notice.  A recent history of ineptitude, Shaky QB’s and a lack of consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball for Cincy and San Francisco leave this game to be an absolute crapshoot.  Both teams have shown flashes this season, but almost always follow them up with head scratching plays.  I think SF is the better team, but there’s just no way to tell how this game ends and I want nothing to do with it.  I’m staying away and you should too.

At Cleveland -2.5  Miami

See above…..

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