Starting Fantasy Lineup
Aug
19
2011

2011 Draft Analysis by Position: Running Backs

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23rd and 21st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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Aug
11
2011

2011 Draft Analysis by Position: Quarterbacks

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6th or 7th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Jul
28
2011

Gridiron Experts Mock Draft Review

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

My Buddy Jody Smith (@JodySmith_ on twitter) Invited me to the Gridiron Experts Invitational Mock Draft that was held on 7/16 and I wanted to share with you his review of the event.  Now, keep in mind that this is before ANY free agency moves started, but while we wait for that to truly kick off on Friday, here is something for you to look through.  Please check out the original post as well as well as Follow Jody on Twitter!

This past weekend, Gridiron Experts assembled some of the most knowledgeable and respected minds in the fantasy football world to participate in our first mock draft of the 2011 season. Joining these industry experts were five members of the Gridiron Experts team and two lucky readers who responded to a twitter open call  for participants.

One of our panel experts, Jim Day from GoAheadandScore.com was kind enough to set up a private league for us at MyFantasyLeague.com. (where they have their own recap available here:  http://bit.ly/qBByoB )

The draft was for 12 team, 15 rounds and will use a standard scoring format, starting 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 DST and 1 PK. This league will be scored in a best ball format, and will have no transactions. A full recap of the mock draft is available here.

Team # 1

OWNED BY: Joe Everett from RookieDraft.com

  • QB- Jay Cutler 10.12, Ryan Fitzpatrick 12.12
  • RB- Adrian Peterson 1.01, Felix Jones 4.12, Marshawn Lynch 7.01, James Starks 9.01, Montario Hardesty 11.01
  • WR- Reggie Wayne 2.12, Miles Austin 3.01, A.J. Green 6.12, Jacoby Ford 8.12, Arrelious Benn14.12
  • TE- Dallas Clark 5.01
  • DST- Philadelphia 13.01
  • PK- Rob Bironas 15.01
  • STRENGTHS: WR- Joe got two studs in Wayne and Austin, then waited to grab the top rookie and a nice sleeper in Ford. Overall a very solid team.
  • WEAKNESS: QB- Clearly Joe built his team through the positional players an waited on QB. This is a solid strategy, but he still got a nice starter in Cutler.
  • BEST PICK: James Starks- excellent value and could be a steal if he commands a large share of the carries in Green Bay

Team #2

OWNED BY: Michael Light from Gridiron Experts

  • QB- Drew Brees 3.02, Matt Cassel 12.11
  • RB- Arian Foster 1.02, Knowshon Moreno 4.11, Ryan Torain 8.11, Pierre Thomas 11.02, Thomas Jones 14.11
  • WR- Greg Jennings 2.11, Steve Johnson 5.02, Mario Manningham 6.11, Kenny Britt 7.02, Randy Moss 13.02
  • TE- Marcedes Lewis 9.02
  • DST- Pittsburgh 10.11
  • PK- Nate Kaeding 15.02
  • STRENGTHS: WR- All five of Mike’s wide outs have an excellent chance of being very productive in a best ball format.
  • WEAKNESS: RB- Besides Arian Foster, none of the other runners are even assured of having regular playing time this year.
  • BEST PICK: If Mario Manningham starts and puts up the kind of production he ended 2010 with, he’s going to be a stud.

Team # 3

OWNED BY: Randy Chambers from Bleacher Report

  • QB- Philip Rivers 3.03, Matthew Stafford 6.10
  • RB- LeSean McCoy 1.03, Peyton Hillis 2.10, BenJarvus Green-Ellis 7.03, Jason Snelling 13.03
  • WR-Brandon Marshall 4.10, Danny Amendola 8.10, Deion Branch 9.03, Emmanuel Sanders 10.10,Jon Baldwin 12.10
  • TE- Jason Witten 5.03, Chris Cooley 14.10
  • DST- New York Jets 11.03
  • PK- David Akers 15.03
  • STRENGTHS: QB; hard not to like the combination of Brees and Stafford
  • WEAKNESS: WR- When you select a tight end, back-up QB and a RB3 before securing a 2nd WR (in a league where three wide outs start) you’re putting your team at a huge disadvantage. Also, David Akers is likely to be done in Philadelphia.
  • BEST PICK: Jason Snelling is a free agent and his play last year might reward him with an expanded role somewhere. Excellent value that deep in a draft.

Team #4

OWNED BY: Matt Lechner from Thefantasyfootballsource.com

  • QB- Matt Ryan 7.04, Kyle Orton 12.09
  • RB- Chris Johnson 1.04, Ahmad Bradshaw 2.09, Mikel LeShoure 8.09, Roy Helu 10.09,
  • WR- Vincent Jackson 3.04, Santonio Holmes 5.04, Percy Harvin 6.09, Johnny Knox 9.04, Chad Ochocinco 13.04, Blair White 14.09
  • TE- Antonio Gates 4.09
  • DST-Green Bay 11.04
  • PK- Matt Bryant 15.04
  • STRENGTHS: very well balanced team; Top 5 players at RB,TE, DST and PK. This team will be a contender.
  • WEAKNESS: Top two WR’s might not return to their respective teams, so their pending status could be a concern
  • BEST PICK: Chris Johnson at 1.04 is a no-brainer, and Roy Helu has a good chance to win the job in Washington; Chad Ochocinco in the 13th round was also very strong

Team #5

OWNED BY: Mike Rodriguez from Gridiron Experts

  • QB- Tom Brady 3.05, David Garrard 15.05
  • RB- Jamaal Charles 1.05, Matt Forte 2.08, DeAngelo Williams 5.05, Kendall Hunter 12.08, Donald Brown 14.08
  • WR- Wes Welker 4.08, Pierre Garcon 6.08, Mike Williams (SEA) 7.05, Steve Smith 8.08, Santana Moss 9.05, Malcolm Floyd 11.05
  • TE- Lance Kendricks 10.08
  • DST- Chicago 13.05
  • PK- N/A
  • STRENGTH: RB- Nice 1-2 punch with Charles and Forte. Williams should be a top 20 starter.
  • WEAKNESS: D’oh! forgot to draft a kicker. In a no transaction league it will be nearly impossible to recover that 100+ point mistake. [Kickers are an after though in Mock Drafts, I was looking for late round value- Mike]
  • BEST PICK: The 4-6 WR were all solid selections, but if Joseph Addai leaves Indy and Donald Brown is named the starter, he could be the steal of this draft.

Team #6

OWNED BY: James Reid from Startingfantasylineup.com

  • QB- Michael Vick 1.06
  • RB- Frank Gore 2.07, Ryan Grant 6.07, Fred Jackson 7.06, C.J. Spiller 10.07, Chris Wells 11.06,
  • WR- Dwayne Bowe 3.06, Dez Bryant 4.07, Marques Colston 5.06, Julio Jones 8.07, James Jones12.07, Terrell Owens 13.06
  • TE- Zach Miller (OAK) 9.06
  • DST- New York Giants 14.07
  • PK- Garrett Hartley 15.06
  • STRENGTHS: WR- to get three top 15 wide outs in a league where you start three WR’s a week is outstanding. Solid picks throughout; excellent strategy. Another title contender.
  • WEAKNESSES: QB- Vick was selected too high and has a history of injuries. With no back-up, Jim’s treading on dangerously thin ice. Must have been shattering for Jim, a huge Bills fan, to not be able to squeeze Trent Edwards onto his roster.
  • BEST PICK: Dez Bryant’s current ADP is 31. Jim got him at 43. That’s a great selection.

Team #7

OWNED BY: @pompousdad from: Gridiron Experts (reader)

  • QB- Aaron Rodgers 1.07, Sam Bradford 7.07
  • RB- Darren McFadden 2.06, Jahvid Best 4.06, Mike Tolbert 8.06, Rashad Jennings 9.07, Reggie Bush 10.06, Ben Tate 12.06,
  • WR- DeSean Jackson 3.07, Brandon Lloyd 6.06, Plaxico Burress 11.07, Robert Meachem 13.07
  • TE- Jermichael Finley 5.07
  • DST- Detroit Lions 15.07
  • PK- Stephen Gostkowski 14.06
  • STRENGHTS: QB- When you’ve got the #1 guy and a back-up capable of starting, you’re doing something right
  • WEAKNESS: WR- 3rd required starter is a 34 year old  free agent who’s been out of the league for two years; position should have been addressed before back-ups Jennings and Bush were selected as fourth and fifth runners.
  • BEST PICK: There’s no reason to think the Chargers will change their successful rushing approach from last season. Tolbert had excellent numbers and at the very least should remain a goal line beast.

 

Team #8

OWNED BY: Phil Stuczynski from Gridiron Experts

  • QB- Peyton Manning 3.08, Joe Flacco 9.08
  • RB- Ray Rice 1.08, Cedric Benson 5.08, Daniel Thomas 6.05, Christopher Ivory 14.05
  • WR- Mike Wallace 2.05, Jeremy Maclin 4.05, Michael Crabtree 7.08, Greg Little 8.05, Torrey Smith13.08
  • TE- Brandon Pettigrew 10.05, Dustin Keller 12.05
  • DST- Dallas Cowboys 11.08
  • PK- Adam Vinatieri 15.08
  • STRENGTHS: QB- Peyton Manning in the third round is excellent value, and Joe Flacco is a superb back-up; Solid depth throughout the entire roster
  • WEAKNESS: RB2- Cedric Benson may have worn out his welcome, and as of now, it’s unclear what kind of work-load Daniel Thomas can expect in Miami.
  • BEST PICK: Waiting to select tight end is a sure way to build depth at more important positions. Phil waited until the tenth round and still secured two quality guys.

Team #9

OWNED BY: Jody Smith from Gridiron Experts

  • QB- Ben Roethlisberger 6.04, Mark Sanchez 12.04
  • RB- Rashard Mendenhall 1.09, Mark Ingram 5.09, Joseph Addai 8.04, LaDainian Tomlinson 9.09,Michael Bush 11.09
  • WR- Roddy White 2.04, Larry Fitzgerald 3.09, Mike Williams 4.04, Braylon Edwards 10.04, Titus Young 13.09
  • TE- Owen Daniels 7.09,
  • DST- Baltimore Ravens 14.04
  • PK- Neil Rackers 15.09
  • STRENGTHS: WR- Best starting group of wide outs in the league. One top 12 wide receiver is good, but three is phenomenal.
  • WEAKNESS: RB2- If Mark Ingram doesn’t take command of the carries in New Orleans, this team will struggle to produce many points from it’s second running back spot. Bye weeks 8 and 11 are both going to be particularly troublesome.
  • BEST PICK: Michael Bush has put up solid numbers in Oakland, and should be able to produce a nice return on an 11th round investment.

 

Team #10

OWNED BY: D.C. from Gridiron Experts

  • QB- Tony Romo 4.03, Kevin Kolb 10.03, Jake Locker 15.10
  • RB- Steven Jackson 2.03, Shonn Green 3.10, Brandon Jacobs 8.03, Mike Goodson 11.10
  • WR- Andre Johnson 1.10, Anquan Boldin 5.10, Jordy Nelson 6.03, Steve Smith(NYG) 7.10
  • TE- Rob Gronkowski 9.10, Tony Gonzalez 14.03
  • DST- New England Patriots 12.03
  • PK- Mason Crosby 13.10
  • STRENGTHS: TE- More proof that you don’t need to grab a tight end early. D.C. managed to get two good ones late. He also has three solid RB’s
  • WEAKNESS: WR- Andre Johnson is a no-brainer, but Boldin is fading fast and Steve Smith’s status is still up in the air. Overall depth is thin.
  • BEST PICK: Brandon Jacobs in the eight round is a low risk/high reward pick. Should he assume his role with the Giants, he’ll produce good numbers, especially touchdowns. If Ahmad Bradshaw leaves town, he could have a big season.

Team #11

OWNED BY: Jim Day from GoAheadScore.com

  • QB- Josh Freeman 7.11, Eli Manning 8.02
  • RB- Maurcie Jones-Drew 1.11, LeGarrette Blount 3.11, Jonathan Stewart 4.02, Bilal Powell 12.02
  • WR- Hakeem Nicks 2.02, Austin Collie 5.11, Lance Moore 9.11, Davone Bess 10.02, Derrick Mason13.11
  • TE- Jimmy Graham 6.02, Aaron Hernandez 11.11
  • DST- St. Louis Rams 15.11
  • PK- Sebastian Janikowski 14.02
  • STRENGTHS: Very solid, well balanced squad. Awesome 1-2-3 RB’s and still a solid WR corps. Folks, that is how you build solid depth and wait on your QB. Will be a formidable team.
  • WEAKNESS: None glaring; Rams defense could be sub-par, but in the overall scheme of things, that won’t make much difference.
  • BEST PICK: Blount at the bottom of the third is solid. A healthy season from Austin Collie could make that selection a steal. Lance Moore (9th) and Derrick Mason (13th) also excellent.

Team # 12

OWNED BY: @jwetters from: Gridiron Experts (reader)

  • QB- Matt Schaub 3.12, Tim Tebow 11.12
  • RB- Michael Turner 2.01, Ryan Mathews 4.01, Ryan Williams 8.01, Delone Carter 9.12, Jacquizz Rodgers 12.01, Ronnie Brown 13.12
  • WR-Calvin Johnson 1.12, Sydney Rice 5.12, Mike Thomas 7.12,
  • TE- Vernon Davis 6.01, Kellen Winslow 10.01
  • DST- Arizona Cardinals 14.01
  • PK- Nick Folk 15.12
  • STRENGTHS: RB- Turner and Mathews should form a formidable top two RBs.
  • WEAKNESS: Depth is thin: Only drafted 3 WRs; any injury will kill this group. Bye weeks will be automatic zeros.Drafted Arizona defense as the eight defense
  • BEST PICK: Somebody has to get those tough yards on third down and at the goal line for the Colts. Why not Delone Carter?
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Apr
04
2011

NFL Mock Draft 2011

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

The NFL draft is coming up quickly now and its time I release my first mock draft of the year.  I have spent a lot more time agonizing about how the top 10 picks will go, since my Bills hold the number 3 pick overall and I truly think (unless free agency gets started after the April 6th court date) I have a pretty decent grasp as to how it will go:

Blaine Gabbert, 1st overall pick, Carolina - It is time to tear it all down and rebuild in Carolina.  Their new coach, Ron Rivera, has just left an offense with Phillip Rivers and I don’t think he has any interest in trying to further develop Jimmy Clausen.  Cam Newton has been talked about as having the talent to go here, but there is too much to risk with the number 1 pick and Gabbert is the safest QB on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers take Patrick Peterson with this pick either, but their biggest need (QB) would still need to be addressed and when you have the top pick, it becomes very difficult to pass on someone as well-rounded as Gabbert.

Marcell Dareus, 2nd overall pick, Denver – The Broncos rush defense has been a mess for the past few seasons.  They still have a pretty good secondary, but have fallen short of the playoffs due to abysmal d-line play for two seasons now.  Marcell Dareus is a beast of a DT and can play in just about any technique the Broncos could dream to use him in.  When looking at tape on Dareus, I can’t help but be reminded of Warren Sapp.  To me, Dareus is the best prospect available in the draft and considering DT is hands down the biggest need for the Broncos, I just don’t see him going anywhere else.

Cam Newton, 3rd overall pick, Buffalo – As a native to Buffalo and a die-hard Bills fan, believe me when I say that the Bills need to find a way to excite their fan base.  The search for Dick Jauron’s replacement was cut short when GM Buddy Nix and owner Ralph Wilson found Chan Gailey.  Time has shown to me that this was the correct move, but at the time it was a bit of a let-down to not see Buffalo make a serious bid for a headline coach.  Now that Gailey is running the show, I expect him to get his QB with the number 3 pick due to the immense upside that comes with Newton. Gailey used to coach Kordell “Slash” Stewart in Pittsburgh and is widely known for building a scheme around the talents of his QB.  While I am not convinced that Cam is destined for greatness, there are few Coaches out there better suited to maximize his potential.  QB is not the only need Buffalo has, but with no sure-fire left tackle at the top of the draft, Chan will take his franchise QB while he still has time to develop him left on his contract.

Robert Quinn, 4th overall pick, Cincinnati – Despite the uncertainty at QB and WR for the Bengals, they are about to embrace their identity as a run-first offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals could use some help rushing the passer.  With medical issues still encircling Da’Quan Bowers, the Bengals will take a compliment to Carlos Dunlap and solidify both DE spots with Robert Quinn from UNC.  This could change easily if Dareus, Gabbert or Newton are still on the board… but as I see things, the Bengals will not have a crack at those three guys and they don’t have much need for Vonn Miller or Patrick Peterson.

Vonn Miller, 5th overall pick, Arizona – The Cardinals are a team that is built to win now.  They are in the softest division in the league and have no one capable of playing the Quarterback position.  I expect them to attack the free agent market and find a more seasoned QB like Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, or even Marc Bulger… which leaves them free to take the best player available for their defense.  I still can’t quite decide if that will be Patrick Peterson or Vonn Miller, but the best pure pass rusher in the draft is difficult to pass up.

A.J. Green, 6th overall pick, Cleveland – The Browns have been in need of a playmaking WR since losing Braylon Edwards.  They have had bigger needs (like at QB) the past few years, but with Colt McCoy ready to take the starting job… he is going to need a decent target.  Green is the big playmaker that McCoy will need in order to flourish as a starting QB in a division with the Steelers and Ravens defenses.  Other possibilities are Robert Quinn (if he falls this far) or Da’Quan Bowers (if he is able to alleviate injury concerns at his pro day).

Patrick Peterson, 7th overall pick, San Francisco – The 49ers have a new head coach, who will be looking to rebuild the team in his own image.  With the 7th pick in the draft there are a lot of options for Jim Harbaugh.  But, with the elite QB talent gone, look for San Fran to take the best player available in LSU’s Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a shut down corner and by adding him, the 9ers maintain the best defense in their division (at least in my opinion). As far as other options, look for San Fran to take the top player available at the time… regardless of position.

Nick Fairley, 8th overall pick, Tennessee – The Titans need a QB, but without an elite option left on the board I expect the Titans to fill the hole left by the departure of Albert Haynesworth.  Few head coaches understand the importance of offensive and defensive line play better than Mike Munchak and with a talent like Fairley available at a position of need for his team, expect the Titans to take their new DT.  Other possibilities include a QB or DE, but if the top 10 picks go at all like I expect, Fairley will be a great bargain.

Anthony Castonzo, 9th overall pick, Dallas – The Cowboys have a pretty substantial need for a right tackle and Castonzo is, in my opinion, the only top 10 talent at the position.  I always envisioned him more at left tackle, but if they can figure out their offensive line issues, the Cowboys should go straight back to being a playoff team next season.  Other possibilities are fellow tackles Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, or CB Prince Amukamara.

Julio Jones, 10th overall pick, Washington – The Redskins confuse the hell out of me at the moment.  I am unsure why Shanahan does not like Donovan McNabb, but assuming there is a QB he is comfortable with in place by the start of the season… he is going to need someone to throw to.  Santana Moss had a nice run, but it is time to pick the new long term deep threat for this offense.  Other options are DE Aldon Smith or any QBs that Shanahan decides he can mold into a starter in the NFL.

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Sep
03
2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Kickers and Defense

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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Sep
02
2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Tight End

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Tight end is a very deep position this year.  There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10.  The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL.  The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft.  More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses.  Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent.  Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone.  When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.

The Top Two

Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own.  No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack.  When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR.  With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates.  Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.

The Next Three

Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys.  Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates.  In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense.  The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover.  Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again.  Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.

The Last of The Starters

Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends.  These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB.  Brent Celek falls under the new QB category.  There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not.  It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other.  Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year.  Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self.  The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.

The Best of The Rest

Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year.  Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe.  Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball.  Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano

Busts

Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap

Recap

If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it!  You will be getting to start an extra WR every week.  If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft.  The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.  Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.

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Sep
02
2010

2010 Funny Fantasy Football Teamnames

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

The following is a compiled list from Twitter and browsing the web:

4th Down Syndrome

Multiple Scorgasms

Romosexual Tendencies

My Vick in a Box

Steave Breastonlargement

Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe

Skittles, Taste Dwayne Bowe

BP Oilers

Henne-nut Cherios

Body By Mangini

JaMarcus NoHustle

Jamarcus Russel Cholesterol Tussle

Chris Henry Too Soons?

Slob on My Kolb

LeFevour for More Cowbell

She Said No Ben.

Please help me expand on the list in the comments!

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Sep
01
2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Wide Receivers

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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Aug
31
2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Running Backs

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Aug
31
2010

NFL 2010 Preseason In Review: Week 3

POSTED BY Big Jim | 2 Comments »

Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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