Wide Receiver is by and far the deepest position this year. You can leave your wide receiver spots completely unfilled until like the 4th round and still start nothing but guys that were in the preseason top 20 last season. It is because of this wealth of talent that you will only find a very small handful of players inside the first couple of rounds on my draft board.

The First Rounders

Calvin Johnson

There is the list of guy that I think make for a good first round pick.  Megatron has proven that he has both the consistency and upside to be worth the risk of a round 1 pick in your fantasy draft this season.  You should still be waiting until the second half of the first round because there is no danger of missing the boat and not getting a safe, reliable and elite talent at this position.

The Top 10

Roddy White

Greg Jennings

Larry Fitzgerald

Hakeem Nicks

Wes Welker

A.J. Green

Andre Johnson

Brandon Marshall

Victor Cruz

Julio Jones

Jordy Nelson

Steve Smith (CAR)

Brandon Lloyd

Mike Wallace

Dez Bryant

Marques Colston

Miles Austin

Jeremy Maclin

I didn’t get any hate mail when I deceived you readers and listed just 3 guys in my top 10 RB’s so I thought I would push my luck and include one thru 19 in my top 10 wide receivers.  The reason for this is that based on past expectations of wide receivers.  This group of guys consists of players with either the upside or consistency to make them a preseason top 10 guy by the standards of 2010.

Many people are saying that they think the Falcons are moving away from the run, due to the presumed decline of Michael Turner.  I agree with them about everything but Turner.  I think the Falcons are going to step up and win the NFC South on the back of a balanced offensive attack.  Turner may not have a shot at the rushing title but he can still be a punishing interior rusher and help open things up for Roddy White and Julio Jones on the outside.  This puts White at #2 in my rankings.

Greg Jennings makes #3 because of his QB and the sheer volume of passes to go around in that offense. He is also the last receiver that I would take in the first two rounds.  To me, you want to address the QB position in these rounds and then take the player who stands out the most as the highest value, whether it be one of the uber-elite tight ends or a running back that you have a lot of faith in to be a consistent producer.

The 4 through 8 spots in my rankings generally represent a group of guys that are going to go falsely high and as a result, I don’t want to own them.  Obviously that would be different for Welker in a PPR format but I do believe that his targets will go down with Brandon Lloyd in town and even if they don’t, he will be hard pressed to repeat last year. Look for this group to go in the second round or early third and expect me to look to the top RB and TE talent available to avoid taking these “risky” guys too early.

Brandon Marshall, though he has a fair amount of risk, has been reconnecting with his old QB since joining the Bears and has also commented on how he feels more a part of a team in Chicago than anywhere else he has played. Also, Marshall is far and away the most talented receiver on the Bears and will not have the issue of rotating guys or Cutler looking to another option very often (apart from Matt Forte as a check down option).  The bottom line is that when he is healthy, he will be on the field and his QB’s favorite target.  We’ve seen the numbers these two can put together so I am expecting Marshall to bounce back in a big way.

Steve Smith of the Panthers was on the list of “finished” receivers last season and now here he is, inside my top 20. I am not surprised either. Two season’s ago Smith was a top 20-ish guy when the Panthers started a reasonable QB who would get Smith involved (I believe it was Matt Moore) and since Cam Newton proved to be more than reasonable, so did Smith. This guy’s got talent and as we’ve seen in recent years, receivers can have LONG, productive careers. Don’t reach for Smith but don’t be upset if you get him in the late third or early fourth round.

Brandon Lloyd has followed coach Josh McDaniels around the league since the two first hooked up in Denver.  Lloyd has had the most productive years of his career under McDaniels and he will follow him back to the place where he will have a career year this season, New England.  Lloyd and the talent he has brought to the field the past two years is a much needed commodity for the Patriots. Brady will finally have a deep threat to stretch the field and open the run game.  The Pats offense will be as complete as it has been in a few years and Lloyd is a relatively risk-free choice here.

Jeremy Maclin has officially supplanted DeSean Jackson as the top receiving threat on Michael Vick’s offense.  Maclin is a much more reliable and consistent producer with DJax providing a spark and some big plays. Maclin  is a PHENOMENAL pickup here and I would consider it a huge victory to have him as my WR 2 this season.

Best of the Rest

Antonio Brown

Dwayne Bowe

Vincent Jackson

Percy Harvin

Steve Johnson

Demaryius Thomas

DeSean Jackson

Eric Decker

Malcom Floyd

Torrey Smith

Robert Meachem

Pierre Garcon

Denarius Moore

Anquan Boldin

Nate Washington

Reggie Wayne

Randy Moss

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Kenny Britt

Santonio Holmes

Michael Crabtree

Reggie Wayne

Mario Manningham

Sidney Rice

Justin Blackmon

Jonathan Baldwin

Greg Little

Titus Young

Lance Moore

Mike Williams

Danny Amendola

Look at these names… these are supposed to be guys who sit on your bench… or free agency… The entire top 40 receiver list is welcome to join my team this season and because of that, I can’t imagine I draft a receiver in the first three rounds.  The first 9-12 or so of these guys would have been WR2′s a few years ago so it becomes harder and harder to miss on your pick. Once you fill out your starting roster at this position just take people with a high potential who might explode. You will be more than capable of finding a safe and reliable fill-in off of waivers should all of your sleeper picks fall though.

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are both very close in ranking and I think Thomas is the guy you want.  He will be a new type of threat that Peyton has never had at his disposal before.  Despite the talent Manning has had around him (Wayne and Harrison), neither was the physical specimen that Thomas is. Manning will be just fine at throwing the back shoulder fade in the red zone and Thomas has the size to go and get it.  I think the number of TD’s between these two could get nutty and that makes his upside higher than Decker’s.  Throw that all out the window and take Decker in a PPR format though.

Carson Palmer is a bit of a sleeper pick for me as a backup QB this year.  He had a strong statistical performance in the later part of last season after being thrown in mid-season.  Now with a full off-season and training camp to learn the playbook and acclimate to his receivers, he should be more than adequate as a fill-in for a bye week or match up play if your number one guy has a particularly bad match up.  Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey are the speed-demons on the outside that Palmer is throwing to and Moore has the most chance of success in my book.  Hey-Bey has a bit of a track record with inconsistency and I personally am not going to take a chance on him, but Moore is young enough that he has a serious chance to develop into a consistent threat for this Raiders offense that is surprisingly explosive and balanced with run-DMC healthy.

Michael Crabtree is a guy that I had a lot of trouble ranking.  He comes in low enough that I ultimately decided that I want the top 10 upside that comes with Randy Moss… but I REALLY think that Crabtree is MORE likely to be a serviceable, weekly option.  Crabtree gets targeted plenty by Smith and I would definitely switch these guys in a PPR format but the bottom line is that if I miss out on Crabtree, I can go get a guy like Danny Amendola late who is a very similar receiver for fantasy-owners just on a worse team.

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This year’s running back pool is… well… disgusting. Teams are trying to protect their investments (player salaries) by rotating a duo or trio of backs because they are just passing the majority of the time anyways and they can save some salary cap space by not needing to seek out and pay an elite talent in free agency. For this season’s draft, I am going to focus on the guys with the best chance at seeing the lion’s share of the workload.  Whether it be one member of a duo whose partner is injury prone or a new talent coming up behind an aging veteran.  I am generally not looking to draft anyone in a three-way time-share and while there are some players from these teams inside my top 50, I think avoiding any running backs from Washington, Carolina, New England or New Orleans is a VERY sound strategy. Let’s break them down by tier.

The Top 10

Ray Rice

Arian Foster

LeSean McCoy

 

 

I apologize for my deception but this are the guys who, in the past, are worthy of a top 10 ranking at the RB position.  There are so few teams that still focus on the running game first and even fewer that have a workhorse back.  These three guys are the only ones who are almost fool-proof picks worthy of a first round draft pick.

Ray Rice is both a workhorse and the focal point of the offense.  Joe Flacco has matured into an above average “game-manager” but the wide receiver talent is not quite up to par. Rice is a true three-down back who can run inside and outside the tackles. There is no reason that I can see for the Ravens to take him off the field other than he needs a breather. Because of this, he is the first non-QB on my draft board and my third overall ranked player.

Arian Foster has one minor “wart”. It’s name is Ben Tate. Tate is a young talent that sees enough carries to keep Foster from topping my preseason rankings. Foster is still certain to see the lion’s share of the work for the Houston offense that runs a vast majority of the time.  With Matt Schaub recovering from a foot injury and Andre Johnson barely able to make it on the field for half of the games, I would be astonished if Houston made a drastic change in their offensive philosophy and suddenly started airing it out. I don’t have a serious injury concern here either so Foster is another great first round selection.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have a plethora of talent on the offensive side of the ball but there is only one irreplaceable cog in the machine: LeSean McCoy.  Michael Vick has matured into more of a pocket passer but he has also maintained the ability to score any time he decides to scramble. This forces defenses to respect him at all times and this usually means that one of the 7 or 8 men in the box is not focused on McCoy over the first few seconds of the play.

Starters

Alright, there has to be a top 10 guys so here are the rest of them:

Matt Forte

Chris Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Jamaal Charles

DeMarco Murray

Darren McFadden

Michael Turner

 

 

 

 

I generally do not want to have to pick from this group of players and would heavily consider looking to the available QBs, Tight Ends or Calvin Johnsons if you are considering one of these guys with your first round pick.  At least four of these guys have to go somewhere in the first round though, so I will focus on the guys I feel you should take a chance on should you be stuck in a tough spot when it’s your turn to pick.

The problem with Forte is that he just doesn’t get  many rushing touchdowns. He had just three all last season. Mike Martz’s offensive scheme really helps him to stay a consistent producer and I am not very scared of Michael Bush vulturing any scores from Forte… because he doesn’t get any.  Forte still had just shy of 1500 all purpose yards last year and was the 17th best running back. Impressive when you account for the fact that he didn’t really play after week 12.

Jamaal Charles is coming off of a torn ACL.  This is stereo-typically a death sentence for an NFL running back for the following season. I am willing to take a risk on him is because he is so young and his injury occurred in week 2.  This means that Charles will have less of a trip back to full speed than Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall, who each suffered the same injury. The other thing that I like about Charles is that he does not require a high volume of carries to be a great fantasy producer. I expect him to average 15 touches per game and if he plays all 16 games, he is a safe-bet to finish the year as the top 10 back you wanted when you drafted him.

Darren McFadden has one HUGE blemish on his record, injury risk.  McFadden has only played in 70% of the possible games throughout his career and last season, he only suited up for 7. Michael Bush has left town and left the workload to Run DMC.  The reason to take McFadden is that he is GOING to give you good production when healthy and he has the upside to be the number one RB at the end of the season, should the stars align and he plays in all 16 games.

Backups

Eleven through twenty in the rankings are the fantasy-backups, or RB2, in your standard league so here they are:

Marshawn Lynch

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Fred Jackson

Adrian Peterson

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Willis McGahee

Trent Richardson

Ahmad Bradshaw

Darren Sproles

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have I mentioned how bad the running back pool is this season?

Marshawn Lynch had a run-in with the law and is a likely candidate for a suspension. The worst-case scenario is 4 games in my eyes and the likely scenario is one or two games, if any. I have seen him crack the top 10 in plenty of rankings but as a Bills fan, I’ve been cheated by his flashes of brilliance before. He has to be considered at least an RB2 because he is the unquestioned starter and that gives him top 10 upside but I don’t expect the Seahawks to take too many steps forward this year and Lynch will likely be back to his inconsistent ways. I would look elsewhere, unless Lynch falls to the end of round 2 or somewhere in round 3.

Frank Gore is a guy that most people are staying far away from. They are expecting his production to fall off of a cliff this season and I agree that it will almost certainly NOT be increasing. The 9ers have more receiving options than in years past and Alex Smith showed some ability to move the ball down the field last season.  I believe that Gore still has some gas in the tank and he will be able to provide consistency to someone who might opt to follow my advice and go QB, WR and/or TE in the first few rounds and still needs their RB1 approaching the middle rounds.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a really interesting guy this year and I think he has an enormous opportunity ahead of him in Cincinnati. Cedric Benson was easily a top 20 guy during his time as a Bengal, almost entirely on the number of carries he would get per game.  Benson’s talents have not yet landed him a team on free agency and the law firm’s talents attracted the Bengals enough to drop Benson and sign him. My favorite law firm fact is that he has NEVER fumbled. Never. Thirty carries a game from an elusive runner with sure hands a nose for the end zone? Sign me up.

Trent Richardson is surrounded by a lot of hype right now and I don’t expect that having his knee scoped will really impact that.  A scope is not a very big deal for such a young guy and by week 2, Richardson should be at full speed.  He is the unquestioned starter for the Browns but I don’t think that I can muster up enough faith in Brandon Weeden extending drives on third and long to expect much more than 20 carries and 75 yards in a game before Cleveland has to abandon the running game completely.  I really like him as a third round pick because there is a chance that he is good enough to carry the offense or that Weeden is a legitimate Quarterback and provides some balance to the offense.  If either of these turn out to be true, he has a chance to be a top 5 guy but that makes him a late third round, early fourth round pick on my board and I think someone is going to reach for him sooner in almost every draft.

The Big Maybes

Because of how incredibly deep the wide receiver position is this year, you want to stock pile a fair few of these guys on your team and hope that you hit the jackpot. You can always just go and pick up a viable replacement receiver off the waiver wire should a need arise but an outside shot at a break out player is pretty darn valuable valuable in the later rounds of your draft.  These are the picks that decide championships so pay attention.

Ryan Mathews

Beanie Wells

Reggie Bush

Shonn Greene

Stevan Ridley

Ben Tate

Isaac Redman

Doug Martin

CJ Spiller

Peyton Hillis

Michael Bush

LeGarrette Blount

Roy Helu

Jonathan Stewart

Jahvid Best

Toby Gerhart

Donald Brown

Daniel Thomas

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

James Starks

Kevin Smith

Ryan Williams

Jonathan Dwyer

Brandon Jacobs

Delone Carter

Mike Goodson

Jacquizz Rodgers

Shane Vereen

Bernard Scott

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Mathews was much higher in my rankings last night before he broke his clavicle on the first play of the preseason opener Thursday night. This might be an over reaction as he should be just as swift on his feet when he returns. Early word has said that he will miss about two weeks of the regular season. How long until he is back on your I/R spot? I’m just going to steer clear this season.

A lot of negativity surrounds LeGarrette Blount and there has been nothing but positive words about Doug Martin. They are pretty close in my ranks for the preseason because I expect Martin to be the starter by week 4 or so but there will always be a time-share in place as long as they are both healthy.

Reggie Bush was the 12th highest scoring RB in fantasy last season.  I wrote him off last year and while my expectations are still conservative,  he is my 23rd ranked back.  The Dolphins will continue to involve him in the offense this season but with the QB question incredibly unanswered, I can’t feel comfortable with him as my RB2.

Peyton Hillis makes for a safe pick up late to fill out your roster in the last third of your draft. Charles isn’t going to get over 20 touches in a game and plenty of them will be in the passing game.  The Chiefs are definitely going to look to establish the run early and Hillis is going to be a big part of that. If Charles goes down or just misses a game or two, you might have a top 20 guy on your hands for those weeks.

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We kick off our draft coverage by taking a look at the Quarterbacks. The position is undergoing a metamorphosis in the NFL right now and this forces us fantasy-owners to make adjustments or suffer the consequences on draft day. Prior to last season just two QB’s in the NFL’s history had ever thrown for 5,000 yards passing in a single season (Dan Marino with 5084 yards in 1984 and Drew Brees with 5069 yards in 2008). Last season there were THREE 5,000 yard passers (5476 yards for Drew Brees, 5235 yards for Tom Brady and 5,038 for Matthew Stafford).  It is also worth noting that Aaron Rodgers would have joined this club as well had he played Week 17 and gotten the yardage total that backup Matt Flynn had in that game and Eli Manning was just 67 yards shy of the 5000 yard milestone.  WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR!? Nothing too surprising actually. You shouldn’t be surprised to hear that the NFL is moving to a pass-first league and that teams are paying more than ever to retain the franchise quarterback as well as to develop the wide receiver talent around them.

The Top Three

Rodgers, Brady and Brees have essentially established a new tier for Quarterbacks in fantasy football.  The “second tier” of QB’s for this coming season are every bit as valuable on draft day that the “top tier” was at last year.  It is because of this that I am now advocating 3 QB’s being taken in the first 5 picks of EVERY draft, regardless of scoring.  That means that I am saying that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady should go #1 and #2 in every single draft with it also being unacceptable for Brees, even with the turmoil in New Orleans, to be taken after anyone but my top two Running Backs (Rice and Foster) Here is my reasoning; First round picks are SUPER DANGEROUS!  The first round is never where I want to reach for a player that I am personally very high on, despite no track record of consistent production.  Many people will tell you, and I am one of them, that you can not win your league in the first round… only lose it. These three QB’s are the guys with the longest track record of consistent, elite-level production.

Rodgers has seemingly perfected the art of Quarterbacking over the past two seasons and in 2011, he never once tallied single digit fantasy points and the only time he was below 20 was in week 14 vs Oakland (17 points).  It is also worth noting that despite playing just 16 games and not making the 5000 yard club, he was still the highest scoring player in the NFL for fantasy owners due to his rushing statistics and just six interceptions on the year (Brees had 14 and Brady 12).

Brady is definitely below Rodgers in my book but it isn’t by much at all.  Brady has Josh McDaniels back as his offensive coordinator and when these two were together previously, Brady set numerous records. McDaniels brought Brandon Lloyd with him after the two apparently developed a significant bond during their time together in Denver and St. Louis.  Lloyd is the best deep threat Brady will have had to throw to since the departure of Randy Moss and because of that, his upside hasn’t been higher in a long time.

Brees falls down in my rankings because of bountygate taking the primary play-caller off the team for the year and the impact that simply moving him up to the coaches box had last season when Sean Peyton got injured.  He still has Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston though so I am happy to leave him in the top 3.

The Starting QB’s

Spots 4 through 12 on my rankings are the rest of the guys that will be used as a “starting QB” in almost every league. They are as follows:

Matthew Stafford

Michael Vick

Eli Manning

Cam Newton

Peyton Manning

Tony Romo

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Matthew Stafford has had just one full season of elite numbers so he remains a late first round pick at best in my book.  I’m not super concerned with injuries going forward with him but I could certainly see a scenario where the Lions take a step backward this season and his numbers dip some.

Michael Vick would be an elite guy if I could see much of a scenario where he played 16 games but, I can barely even imagine it.  You can expect plenty of great weeks from Vick but I can’t take a QB in the first round who has so much risk to not start for me in the playoffs.

Eli had 20 turnovers eating away at his fantasy point totals last season and I have concerns about whether or not he can repeat his yardage totals, even with such a talented WR duo.

Cam Newton is a bit of an anomaly as a rushing QB. Typically we can’t rely on rushing TD’s to repeat but the difference here is that Newton actually gets these plays CALLED for him to run on the goal line and that will continue.  You should expect his rushing stats to dip after the Panthers added Mike Tolbert, another solid back who is especially effective in the red zone.  There is also likely to be a lot more passing attempts on the goal line however because Tolbert is a very effective target in the passing game as well.

Peyton Manning has always been an “elite performer” but after a year off, he is pretty likely to have a slow start on a new offense. Manning is also historically not quite the same guy outdoors and the Broncos play just one game inside a dome and that is in Arizona in Week 4.

I think that if you get stuck in a spot without one of the top 3 guys, there aren’t many safer bets than Romo.  With DeMarco Murray giving the Cowboys a rushing attack and the talent that the Cowboys have at receiver, Romo should do just fine statistically this year. I could easily see him over 4,500 yards this season.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense appears to be migrating to the pass-first style of the rest of the NFL. Michael Turner has not churned out the production that Atlanta signed up for and with Julio Jones proving to be a serious threat in the passing game late last season, they will almost certainly be airing the ball out a lot more from here on out.  I’m not 100% that Ryan can handle this style of offense and put up top 5 numbers so he comes in at #10 in my rankings.

Vincent Jackson and Mike Tolbert were two of Rivers’ top targets over the past couple of seasons but last year they were both pretty inconsistent as far as drops are concerned. Now they aren’t on the team and Rivers’ value will be determined by the chemistry he can develop with his new receiving corps.  Vincent Brown has a very promising rookie campaign and is looking to fill the void that VJax left behind with Malcom Floyd and new acquisition Robert Meachem.

Ben Roethlisberger will remain a big-play machine but consistency is a big problem and so is health.  Only one QB who is currently on an NFL team has been sacked more than Ben and that is Matt Hasselbeck, who we can all agree is a fair bit older than Ben and yet he has only been sacked 14 additional times.

The Best Backups

The end of my QB rankings is a little different than most that I have seen and is as follows:

Jay Cutler

Matt Schaub

Joe Flacco

Alex Smith

Josh Freeman

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Sam Bradford

Kevin Kolb

Carson Palmer

Robert Griffen III

Andy Dalton

Matt Flynn

Matt Cassel

Clearly I have no love for RG3 as he is at 23rd in my rankings.  He has some value as a backup in the event that you do not get one of the elite guys this season because there is an outside chance that he has a Cam Newton-esque rookie campaign and winds up being a top 10 guy anyways.  I however, cannot let this tiny chance force me to spend very much at all for him on draft day and since SOMEONE is going to reach on him, I won’t be owning the Redskins’ new Quarterback at all this season.

Jay Cutler has by far the most potential among this group, with Brandon Marshall rejoining him in a new place this time.  Cutler will be quick to get back into rhythm with his old favorite target and Marshall is immediately the most talented receiver on the Bears offense.  Forte still provides a dynamic and unique threat that offensive coordinator Mike Martz has had a lot of success utilizing thus far.  I expect the Bears offense to take a big step forward and would love to have Cutler as my #2 guy for the 2012 season.

It is a little weird to list Schaub as a back up but after his late-season injury and the continual injuries of Andre Johnson, the Texans are sure to lean heavy on their VERY successful running game. Schaub is also sure to be limited in his movement capabilities and he also may have some minor pain issues early in the year.

If you have an elite guy on your roster, then I think you should target Carson Palmer as your backup.  You can probably scoop him up at the very end of your draft and I think he has a serious shot at being a top 15 fantasy QB for the second half of the season.  Expect a slow start and hold him on your roster unless you get ravaged by an injury and he hasn’t turned it on yet. But take a look at his numbers over the 2nd half of last season,

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This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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Tight end is a very deep position this year.  There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10.  The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL.  The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft.  More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses.  Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent.  Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone.  When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.

The Top Two

Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own.  No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack.  When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR.  With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates.  Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.

The Next Three

Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys.  Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates.  In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense.  The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover.  Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again.  Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.

The Last of The Starters

Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends.  These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB.  Brent Celek falls under the new QB category.  There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not.  It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other.  Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year.  Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self.  The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.

The Best of The Rest

Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year.  Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe.  Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball.  Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano

Busts

Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap

Recap

If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it!  You will be getting to start an extra WR every week.  If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft.  The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.  Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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