Bears vs. Lions

The Bears have something the Lions want. The title of “Division Champ”. They can’t win that this week but they can certainly help their cause considerably. The story of this game will be the Bears’ offensive line, which has played terribly this season.  The Lion’s front seven on defense has been able to make up for their secondary with a great pass rush.  Also, the run defense has been really good through the first four weeks and we can expect them to contain Forte on the ground. Don’t worry fantasy owners, he’ll get enough rushing yards to compliment his receiving total and remains a must-start and a top 10 RB. Cutler is a decent QB2 this week, should your league allow you to play two, and his receivers are all too inconsistent to be worth even a flex spot as even Johnny Knox has almost fallen outside of my top 40 receivers.  Calvin Johnson is quite possibly the MVP of the first quarter of the season with remarkable consistency as he has hauled in two touchdowns in every single game thus far. Stafford has also joined the ranks of the elite fantasy QBs. Injuries remain a long-term concern in my opinion but until that happens, he is still the guy throwing to Megatron and he has led the Lions to 4-0.  I like the Lions to win at home in the dome, but I would not be at all surprised if it was a relatively low-scoring game.

Packers vs. Falcons

Last year, the Packers handed the Falcons one of their only two home-losses of the season. That game also ended the season for Atlanta because it was in the divisional round of the playoffs. I actually like Atlanta to win this game in a shootout. The beat Green Bay at home last in week 12 of last season, but it was far from a shootout. This year, both defenses are not quite living up to the expectations that most of us had for them. This should make for a lot of big plays and Julio Jones is inside the top 25 at wide receiver for the first time, making him a very good flex play. Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone for the first time in his career. Most people are staying completely away from the Ryan Grant/James Starks situation, but I think Grant makes a pretty good flex play with six teams on their bye week. Starks did not impress me last week with Grant sidelined and the week before that, Grant outplayed Starks considerably. Rodgers, Jennings and White are all must starts as always.

Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets sure need a win to try and pull even with Buffalo for the number two spot in the division.  If they could pull it off and Buffalo loses to Philly, which I expect will happen, there would be a three-way tie at 2-2 atop the AFC East. That was fun wasn’t it? Let’s be serious, I like the Patriots to win this one handily. Rex Ryan’s defense has some explaining to do after two very mediocre performances in a row and an inability to contain the running game. I also don’t think Darrelle Revis can stop Wes Welker the way the Patriots have been using him over four weeks.  There is no one better at running shallow crossing routes to draw linebackers into trying to cover him and if the Jets really do force Revis to follow him all over the field, the rest of the Patriots receivers will be taking turns being open even deeper down the field. I also think the Jets offense will be able to be productive against a Pats defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.  If Sanchez can avoid stupid mistakes, Santonio Holmes could be in for a big day. I have him ranked is a viable WR2 or flex play. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the most likely back in New England’s committee to see carries at the goal line, so he remains the highest ranked of the three. Stevan Ridley HAS out performed Law Firm over the past two weeks though and might be worth a flex play in deeper formats however.

No Comments »

49ers at Eagles

Well clearly this week is light on the  really good match ups, since Alex Smith’s team is making it into my preview article.  But oddly enough the 9ers sit at 2-1, in first place of their division and the Eagles are currently at 1-2 in last place of theirs. The so-called dream-team has some work to do as they figure out how to work as a team and keep their QB from being battered bruised and broken before the bye week. The Eagles secondary is by far the most talented group in the NFL and yet Eli Manning picked them apart last week and their line-backing corp is a legitimate weak spot that makes them vulnerable to the run.  The 49ers offense however has looked sluggish and down right bad so far despite the winning record.  Their biggest threat, Frank Gore, has been a HUGE disappointment for fantasy owners and even last week the backup Kendall Hunter seemed faster into the holes and seemed to be able to find better creases in the defense.  The only chance the 9ers have to steal a win on the road this week is for Gore to step it up and be the player he has been for the past few years.  If he is able to keep drives alive and be an effective runner, then the 49ers will have a shot.  Their front seven is going to be able to reach Vick plenty in this game as the Eagles have yet to figure out their offensive line issues.   Vick is coming off a concussion and what they thought was a broken non-throwing hand which turned out to be a bruise and if the pressure is getting to him and the 49ers can get a running game clicking, this could become a very close game.  I wouldn’t start any 49ers apart from Vernon Davis and Frank Gore (only out of sheer necessity as he continues to plummet in my ranks with each terrible performance). And you can feel comfortable starting all your Eagles play makers, even if Vick is for some reason not in the lineup they would be OK in this match up. I think the Eagles will prove to be too tough for the 49ers and if Gore continues this slump, it could get ugly.

Lions at Cowboys

Detroit finally appears to have things turned around as they have been an explosive offense over the first three games and are still undefeated as they head down to play the Cowboys in Dallas. If both teams were healthy I would probably take the Cowboys at home but with just one quality receiver to cover, I think the Lions’ offense will lead them to a shocking 4-0 start in what may turn into a shoot out. Tony Romo won’t be as banged up this week as he was in week 3 and I think he is able to connect with Witten and Bryant quite a bit. You will want to start all of your fantasy players in this game as I don’t think either secondary matches up well against the quality of the passing attacks in this game.  Jahvid Best’s value will continue to depend on his receiving ability and the big play and he remains, in my eyes, the best flex play available. Calvin Johnson and his two TDs in every single game has become the top fantasy WR in the NFL and Matthew Stafford even cracked my top 5 at QB. Look for the Lions to win a nail biter here and for everyone to have a good statistical performance in a high scoring game.

Jets at Ravens

I do not like this match up for the Jets. This new look, pass-first, Jets offense is not as impressive to me as the ground and pound attack that has taken them to two consecutive AFC championship games.  This should be a close game, but I definitely think that the Ravens are able to force turnovers and keep Sanchez in check throughout this game.  I am looking for the Ravens to use Ray Rice to expose the weakness of the Jets Defense… stopping the run. I would not expect to see a big game from ANY receivers or QBs in this game and would look to find a serviceable replacement for both Sanchez and Flacco if you’ve been using them thus far. Santonio Holmes is the one guy that is probably worth a flex start as he is just the one that is most likely to pull off a big play. I think these teams are definitely both playoff teams, but this could get ugly for the Jets.  Sit everyone not named Ray Rice and brace yourselves for a one-sided Ravens victory, Jets fans.

2 Comments »

Texans at Saints

There aren’t too many better places for the Texans to make a statement to the NFL than the Super Dome. Houston is 2-0 and quickly became the favorites to win the division when David Garrard was released from Jacksonville and Peyton Manning went under the knife before Week 1.  Houston is dying for a playoff birth and a big road win against Drew Brees and the Saints would really speak volumes about their chances in the post season.  Houston still needs to show me that their secondary can play far better than their embarrassing performance last season and keeping Drew Brees at bay is just the task that I want to see them face in order to convince me.  They have certainly showed signs of improvement this season and currently sit at #1 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, but I do think that Brees and the Saints will prove to be too tall of a task for Wade Phillips’ defense and I actually thing both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are quality plays this week with Colston still injured.  Ingram remains a bit of a stretch to start as he is still carving out his niche in this offense and Sproles has earned a fair share of playing time with his ability to make plays over the first two weeks. I do not think that Arian Foster is a sure-fire #1 back if he plays because after he had to come out in week 2, I expect the Texans to bring him back slowly. Schaub should do fine facing a very good defense with a very disruptive pass rush now that Owen Daniels seems to be rebounding to the reliable target that he was two years ago and despite Andre Johnson finally not being my top ranked receiver, but obviously he remains a must start and only fell to 3rd.

Packers at Bears

A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game headlines the 4 o’clock  games this weekend and it has a lot of meaning for both teams.  The Bears are the defending division champs and the Packers are the defending Super Bowl champions.  The Bears are trying to establish themselves as a Super Bowl contender and beating Green Bay has been an issue for them recently and means a whole lot to Bears fans. I think that a Mike Martz offense has a serious chance to exploit this Green Bay secondary that has allowed back to back 400 yard passing games, one of which was by Cam Newton in his 2nd start ever.  The Bears defense has been playing well so far and should be able to contain the Packers offense enough to give the offense a chance.  I actually like the home team to win in an upset here.  Matt Forte produces more in the passing game than on the ground and as long as he keeps up this level on consistency, I don’t care how he does it.  Forte is fast becoming a top 10 fantasy running back because of his receiving ability like we haven’t seen since Brian Westbrook and is a must-start regardless of match-up until further notice. Johnny Knox remains the top receiving threat for fantasy owners on the Bears because of his speed and big-play ability, but he is a flex play at best.  Cutler is a good option this week in my opinion as there is a lot of tape of how to put up big numbers against the Packers in the air from the past two weeks and I really liked what I saw in the home opener against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons.  There is no way the Packers go down without a fight and while I heavily downgraded the running backs for this week, you are starting Rodgers, Finley and Jennings no matter what happens and I can’t really argue with Jordy Nelson in the flex either if your in a deep format or short on receivers.

Patriots at Bills

I wasn’t going to take advantage of the opportunity to talk about my home town team, but the game really does just jump out at more than the rest of the games.  If you had to guess who the top scoring offense in the NFL was who would yo say? Patriots right? They aren’t even the top scoring offense in their division with Buffalo having 79, Detroit having 75 and the Pats sit in 3rd with 73.  It seems pretty obvious to me that the bubble is going to burst this week as the Patriots are a machine and the Bills are just not equipped to put up the number of points that are likely to be necessary to continue to out score Tom Brady. Buffalo fans are DYING to finally get a win over the Patriots (believe me) since the last time it happened was EIGHT YEARS AGO when they won 31-0 and came out to a blazing 5-1 start only to miss the playoffs.  I still have trouble seeing Buffalo doing much more than 7-9 and scaring some wild card teams late in the season.  One thing is apparent however, they may have found themselves a QB after all.  People were scratching their heads when Buffalo left the draft and then free agency without a new QB prospect and GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey continued to reaffirm their confidence in the Amish Rifle (that’s Ryan Fitzpatrick if you didn’t guess by looking at his beard).  I am a lifelong Bills fan and I can’t honestly say that I ever considered Fitz to be a potential QB of the future, but this blazing fast start has me excited to see what he can do.  The Bills’ best hope for a huge upset is Fred Jackson.  He has led Buffalo top ranked rushing attack to an average of 193 yards over the first two games of the season.  If they can control the clock, keep Brady off the field and force a pair of timely turnovers, they just might do the unthinkable.  The probable scenario is that they find themselves playing from behind early, need to abandon the running game and they can’t win a blow for blow shootout with Tom Brady.  I am starting all the usual suspects with reasonably high expectations for a high scoring game.  The loss of Aaron Hernandez will mean an increase in targets for Gronkowski and Welker and I don’t have too high of expectations for the Law Firm or Woodhead because the Bills’ defensive front seven is vastly improved over what it was a season ago.

No Comments »

Chargers at Patriots

I love when these two teams meet up.  It may be a little better in the post-season, but that might still happen this year too.  The Chargers travel to the east coast to play in Foxboro and this is enough of an edge that I think the Patriots are going to win this game.  Despite winning last week, the Chargers still had special teams issues and Philip Rivers did not look that good in week 1.  Tom Brady on the other hand looked phenomenal in his season opener as the offense kept up the pressure throughout the game and just kept scoring points in any way they could.  For some reason the Chargers never seem to have their act together early on and I don’t see how they keep up with the Patriot’s machine.  I do not think that Ryan Mathews is a very viable starter this week as the passing game is likely to be the focal point for San Diego as they try and keep pace, but Tolbert’s involvement in the passing game makes him a weak RB2 or good flex play.  I feel like Vincent Jackson will have to be a factor in order for this game to be close and I would expect them to try and get him involved early and often.  Despite the quality of the Charger’s defense, you should be starting all your usual Patriots except Danny Woodhead, who is not likely to be used much outside of third downs.

Bears at Saints

People constantly want to discredit the Bears over the past few years, but shutting down Atlanta last week really opened my eyes.  The defense is a top 5 unit and Jay Cutler is growing into quite the gunslinger.  He is going to throw a couple INTs in each game but that is because of all the big plays that he is going for and fantasy owners should respect him for his ability to take risks.  I think it is too tall of a task for the Bears to win this game in New Orleans, but I am almost positive that they will be able to keep it competitive and this should be a great game to watch.  I am not downgrading anyone for the match up at this point however, the Saints RB’s are not start-able at this time and I am not big on Meachem or Henderson, despite the Colston injury.  Someone has to have a good game for the Saints in the receiving game, but good luck trying to figure out who it will be.  I personally think Graham will become the primary red zone target, so that just leaves it up to a game of chance to try and start the receiver that comes up with the big play for Brees. I wouldn’t start Jay Cutler either in this game as I think the Saint’s complex blitzing scheme will be able to exploit a weak Bears offensive line, but I am not too scared to start him if I normally would.  Forte is the key member of the Bears offense and the one guy that is always going to be worth a spot on your roster, so don’t be afraid to start him either.

Eagles at Falcons

Atlanta disappointed me by not being competitive against the Bears in week 1.  They looked out matched and were unable to keep up with Jay Cutler and the Mike Martz offense in place for Chicago.  I had high hopes for their defense this season and they disappointed me almost as much as the offense.  The Falcons are a much better team on the road and it all starts with Matt Ryan.  At home, in the dome, the Falcons looked to be unstoppable last season and I expect this to be the game of the week as the Eagles come to town. I feel like the Eagles’ superstar secondary will be more than capable of containing Roddy White and the rest of the Faclons’ receivers and the Philadelphia offense is too explosive for Michael Turner to be able to win this game for his team.  I think Vick and the Eagles are going to win a close game and it will likely not be as high scoring as we might think.  With that said you still have to start all the usual suspects, but I don’t see a big game from any of the Falcons on the horizon.

No Comments »

Lions at Buccaneers

This game has me far more excited than any other in week 1. Last season in week 15 the Lions beat the Buccaneers 23-20 in Tampa Bay and this game is essentially the reason that the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl.  This loss for Tampa cost them the Wild Card spot that ended up going to Green Bay instead.  Both of these teams are young and quickly rebounding into legitimate playoff contenders.  In this game last season Calvin Johnson racked up 152 yards receiving and did so with Shaun Hill at QB.  LeGarrette Blount also had a big game with 110 yards on the ground but the Lions are a much more complete defensive front 7 now and Blount will have difficulty unless Josh Freeman is able to move the ball through the air effectively. This shouldn’t be that tough considering the Lions did not address their secondary and have been susceptible to the big play.  Their hope is that the pass rush will be considerably better and will make their defensive backs not need to maintain the coverage very long.  I think the Lions are going to win this one, with big performances from all the major fantasy players in what I see as a high scoring game. I have Freeman, Mike Williams, Blount, Stafford and Calvin Johnson all ranked very high at their positions and think they are all worth a start in week 1.

Saints at Packers

The past two Super Bowl champions meet tonight to Kickoff the season and it’s hard not to be excited about these two high-powered offenses meeting up to get us all excited for the rest of the 2011 season.  What interests me most however is the defenses.  Each team is known for their ability to use disguised blitzing schemes to disrupt the rhythm of opposing quarterbacks.  This is shaping up to be another high scoring affair that is likely to be decided by a big turnover.  Both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are automatic starters, but Marques Colston has been inconsistent at best over the past couple of years and is a mediocre WR2 at best in my rankings this week.  The Packers have said that they plan to split carries between Ryan Grant and James Starks, but Grant is who they would likely turn to on the goal line and makes a much better RB2 or flex play.  My money is on the Packers to win this one, because of their play makers on the defensive side of the ball, but there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around for all the usual suspects.

Steelers at Ravens

This rivalry ALWAYS provides us with hard-hitting and entertaining football.  It does not typically lead to an abundance of fantasy points.  Anquan Boldin is the one guy that might be a surprise with a big week 1 performance now that Lee Evans is there to stretch the field vertically and open up passing lanes across the middle for Boldin who has always been more productive with a deep threat on the other side of the field.  Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall both need to be started regardless of the very difficult match up and Big Ben is still 8th in my rankings.  Flacco on the other hand has never beaten the Steelers with Roethlisberger running the show for Pittsburgh and is not a viable week 1 starter unless its a 2 QB format. Mike Wallace is also still worth a start given his speed and big-play ability will still force Ben to look his way deep a few times throughout the course of the game.  I like the Steelers to win this one, but it will be pretty close and very entertaining.

No Comments »

Rams at Seahawks

In a week full of playoff implications and divisional rivalries, this fight over the NFC West title has the feel of a fist fight between a one armed man and a blind guy. Each team has serious issues on both sides of the ball, but are very different in a variety of ways.  Pete Carrol was brought in to coach the Seahawks and attempt to transition them from the Matt Hasselbeck era into a Super Bowl contender under a different QB.  Hasselbeck has not looked as good as he did in his prime for a couple years now and I do not expect him to suit up in 2011.  Comeback player of the year candidate Mike Williams has surpassed all expectations of his performance this season and is a part of the future of this team along with the younger receiving talent (Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu).  Many believed Charlie Whitehurst to be the heir apparent to Hasselbeck, but he has looked iffy at best in his sporadic appearances this season.  With the race for this division title being so wide-open all season, the aging and struggling Hasselbeck has been able to put the Seahawks in position to host a playoff game.  There are no players on the Seahawks worth the risk of starting in standard formats, with Williams and Marshawn Lynch being the only players worth any consideration for your flex position.

The Rams have already located their QB of the future in Sam Bradford and hope only to try and get him the experience of playing in the post season to cap off a very impressive rookie campaign.  Bradford has endured a fair amount of injuries to his receiving corp. but has been able to remain productive in spite of these changes.  If the Rams hope to win this game they must lean on their most consistent threat, Steven Jackson, who has what I consider to be a very easy match up.  Jackson is a top 10 RB every week and should be started with confidence this week as he has been a consistent statistical performer regardless of the success of the team as a whole for the past few seasons. I think the Seahawks win a close game this week due to their home field advantage in this match up. Qwest field is not a friendly environment for the Rams and their rookie QB because of it’s structural design to increase sound levels on the field.

Packers at Bears

The Bears have said that their primary goal as a team is the beat the Packers.  They have the opportunity this week to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs before they begin and I expect them to do everything in their power to do so.  The connection between Mike Martz and Jay Cutler is strong and the reason for their success this season.  They have gotten better offensive line play than I had thought was possible in the pre-season and because of this they have already clinched the division title.  Matt Forte has been a huge part of the offensive production for the Bears, he has coupled his pass catching ability with a tough and physical running style that has made him among the most complete backs in the NFL.  Despite Johnny Knox’s great performance last week, there is little reason to expect a repeat performance this week against Clay Matthews and the Packers’ formidable defense.

The Packers have endured a wide variety of injuries on both sides of the ball this season and because of it, have struggled to maintain their Super Bowl aspirations.  Their passing offense has, for some time, been the strength of this team and the combo of Rodgers and Jennings has proven to be one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league.  They lack a quality rushing attack and have since they lost Ryan Grant in week 1.  Because of this the Bears are my favorite to win this game at home and make their path to the Super Bowl a little easier because of it.   Jay Cutler remains a decent option at QB and Matt Forte is a must start, despite the quality opponent they face.

Buccaneers at Saints

Tampa Bay has been an exciting young team to watch this season.  Their core of players are all at the beginning of their careers and undrafted rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount must be considered for rookie of the year. Josh Freeman has had a break out season and is coming off a career performance last week against the Seahawks.  This week he faces a complex blitzing scheme that has hindered far more seasoned Quarterbacks and while he should be a decent QB2 starter, I would shy away from him in standard formats. Blount and rookie WR Mike Williams are still quality starters in this game as both sides still have something to play for in this game.

After defeating the Falcons at home last week, New Orleans appears to be back in Championship form heading into the playoffs.  I expect that the Saints will end up resting their starters at the end of this game, due to the (almost) guarantee that the Falcons will retain the division title by beating the Panthers at home. Pierre Thomas announced his return to prominence last week with a solid performance against the Falcons.  He did this without Chris Ivory active and taking any carries from him, but I expect Thomas to carry the load the rest of the way as he did prior to his injury.  With their ability to clinch the divisional title very unlikely… do not expect a huge game from Thomas, who just barely cracks the top 20 at RB. Even with the possibility that Brees and company do not play the entire game, any usual starters on the Saints should remain in their fantasy-owners lineups.  Look for the Saints to win this game in close fight.

No Comments »

Saints at Falcons

This week’s Monday night game has been circled as the game of the season on my calendar since shortly after the Falcons went on the road to the Superdome to beat the Saints in week 3.  Going into this season many people (including myself) expected the Falcons to be a playoff team, but few expected them to be the class of the NFC.  Their dominance in front of their home crowd has been incredible and if they can manage one last home-win against the defending super bowl champion, the Falcons will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This would make them the heavy favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Saints are playing for their last chance to reclaim the division title, but in order to do this the Falcons would need to lose both this week and in week 17 at home against the 2-12 Panthers.  After watching the Falcons defeat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, I am a firm believer in their ability to beat ANYONE inside the Georgia Dome and I expect them to earn a narrow victory this week.  There is one thing that I am 100% positive of, this will be a great game and a must-see for every football fan.  Neither team has a stellar defense and all fantasy-relevant players are must-starts for this potential shoot out.  Matt Ryan, because he is playing at home, found his way into my top 10 QBs this week and considering my playoff philosophy of down grading the impact of match-ups and playing the more trusted and safe option… this is a big show of my confidence in him.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were a team in disarray, their offense was inept and there seemed to be a lack of play makers to step up and lead by example on the field.  Last week, Mark Sanchez led the Jets to a confidence-building win over AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The health of Sanchez is in question and it is looking as though he will be a game time decision, but for me it does not affect anyone’s fantasy value.  I do not trust Braylon Edwards in the playoffs against such a quality defense and Santonio Holmes remains the only Jet who I feel is worth a start in standard leagues.  Earlier in the season LaDainian Tomlinson WAS the difference maker for this offense, but due to his age he has slowed down and considering he has not scored a rushing TD since week 6, it is apparent that he is unable to fulfill this role any longer.  Now, in order to be the Super Bowl contender they were hoping to be earlier this year, they will need to look to their younger talent.

The Bears are division champions in their first year with offensive coordinator Mike Martz and their defense has quietly been one the best in the league.  They face another of the league’s best defenses and have a QB known for his poor decision making abilities.  The only Chicago player worth starting for fantasy-owners is Matt Forte but as I said in my Hate list yesterday, you should not expect a big game from him.  I think the Bears win this defensive battle, because they are a more balanced team and have bigger individual play makers on defense.  Julius Peppers is who I believe makes the difference in this game as he has done all season long for the Bears.

Colts at Raiders

All is right with the world, the Colts are back on top of their division.  They will need to finish the remainder of the season without Austin Collie due to his third head injury of the season and they will be a lesser offense because of it.  Joseph Addai is finally back to full participation in practice and appears to be a sure thing to start against a weak Raiders run defense.  He has missed enough time that I do not expect him to be featured as the lead back quite yet, but he will likely split carries with Donald Brown and make both of them too risky to start for fantasy-owners.  Reggie Wayne remains a top 10 WR this week despite facing Nnamdi Asomugha who, unlike Darelle Revis, does not typically shadow the opponent’s top receiver for the entire game.

The Raiders have been a surprising team this season.  Despite a mid-season QB controversy, the Raiders have found their way to 7-7 with a 5-0 record against divisional opponents. Because of this division record, they are heavily favored in tie-breakers and should find their way into the post season if they win these last two games.  They match up well against the Colts with their strong running game led by Darren McFadden, who is having a breakout, Pro Bowl caliber season.  Recently they have been trying to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Jacoby Ford, who has been a dynamic play maker in a variety of ways on both offense and special teams.  Being the playoffs however, Run DMC (McFadden) is the only player worth the risk in this game which I believe the Colts will win by a VERY narrow margin.

Giants at Packers

The Packers narrowly missed upsetting the New England Patriots last week with backup QB Matt Flynn in command of their offense.  Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go this week after his concussion that he suffered in week 14.  He faces one of the league’s best pass rushes, but this is one of the best passing attacks in the league and we can expect big statistical performances from both Rodgers and his top receiver, Greg Jennings. Green Bay has been hindered this season by their lack of a running game, but have been able to remain consistent for fantasy-owners despite this short-coming.  I do like the Packers to win this game, but I fear for their ability to succeed in the playoffs without a more balanced offense.

Last week the Giants suffered a demoralizing loss at the hands of Michael Vick and the Eagles.  This week they will have trouble against one of the best and most explosive offenses the NFC has to offer this week against the Packers.  Eli Manning has had a lot of issues with turnovers this season and his ability to minimize them in this game will be the deciding factor.  The Giants success lies in the hands of their running game, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs sharing the load.  They were not able to close-out the win last week and I expect the turnover problems to persist after the emotionally unsettling loss last week.  Because of that, I believe the Giants will lose this game, but it will be a close and well fought game!

No Comments »

49ers at Chargers

The playoff dreams of two teams hang in the balance tonight as the 9ers travel to San Diego to take on Rivers and the Chargers.  Neither team is playing perfect football this season, but each still clings to hopes of a division title and playoff berth going into this game.  Rivers has been the best and most consistent QB in the NFL this season and the issues with them have been almost entirely on special teams.  There have been a staggering number of special teams turnovers from the Chargers this year and it has almost destroyed the season for the top ranked defense and 2nd ranked offense.  The outcome of this game will come down to turnovers and if the Chargers are able to minimize their mistakes and play sound football… then there are VERY few teams capable of beating them.  Lower expectations for Westbrook and Crabtree against this incredibly consistent defense and after all the work that Ryan Mathews got late last week, there is little chance of a big game from Tolbert here as well.  I still think that Tolbert is the lead back and should see a fair few carries (at least enough that he remains a top 25 RB and a very solid flex starter).  Vincent Jackson has come back from his injury and has the potential to explode back to his top 10 form with Philip Rivers throwing the ball, but he is too risky to crack the top 30 at his position. However, if you’re gambling, he is a pretty good risk to take as he still has the pro-bowl talent he had before holding out of his contract.  I expect the Chargers to get the win at home, with the playoffs on the line.

Eagles at Giants

The Giants have been the team to come the closest to shutting down the Eagles’ top ranked offense.  They pride themselves on pressuring the QB with just their front four and have a wide variety of talent on the D-line.  Michael Vick is by far the best QB in the league at evading pressure and making defenses account for every inch of the field.  The Giants are another team that has killed themselves with turnovers at times, but their punishing running game has taken over games in recent weeks and the Eagles are without Stewart Bradley.  Bradley missed time at the end of last season and the Eagles D was never quite the same, but it looks as if Asante Samuel will return and if Eli Manning can’t protect the football, then turnovers will cost the Giants the division.  I personally think that the two-headed monster of Jacobs and Bradshaw will be too much for the Eagles without Bradley… but I do not see the Giants being able to shut down Vick.  In order to get the win the Giants will need to control the clock with the run game to limit the chances for Vick, but still be able to stretch the field with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham by using the play action pass. Lower your expectations of LeSean McCoy, but he is still a must start as he is so involved in the passing game and has been such a reliable player for fantasy owners this season.  Despite the quality of the opposing defense, Maclin and Jackson are still must-starts as well as Hakeem Nicks.

Jets at Steelers

The Jets offense has completely collapsed in recent weeks and it has been two games in a row without scoring a touchdown.  The worst opponent to have when you are struggling on offense is the Steelers, who have allowed an average of 60 rushing yards per game.  Every player involved in this game should be downgraded and the only players worth the risk are Big Ben, Mike Wallace and Santonio Holmes… but the likelihood of a big game is very low, so don’t expect it.  This should be a game of field goals and I expect the Steelers to win it. On paper, the Jets have little chance of success because they pride themselves on their running game and the Steelers seem to stop the run with little emphasis.  Lately, Troy Polamalou has been back to his old game-breaking self and should be able to capitalize on the recently poor decision-making of Sanchez. I expect the Steelers to have the edge and continue the collapse of what looked to be a Super Bowl contender.

No Comments »

Chiefs at Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs have a rare opportunity to bury the annual champions of their division this week.  KC has a two game lead on both the Chargers and the Raiders, so with only 4 games left in the regular season… a second December loss for Rivers and the rest of the Chargers would all but kill their hopes of making the playoffs.  They would drop below .500 and have nothing but an outside shot at a wild card spot, assuming they win the next three to finish 9-7.  The Chargers defense has been great all year, statistically, and should pose problems for Cassel and the Chiefs.  They have been able to bring pressure on the QB with their blitzing scheme all year, but they have not faced many offenses as balanced as the Chiefs.  The Chiefs’ two headed rushing attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones has been the key to their success and while Charles is clearly the superior back, the carries get split roughly evenly to keep both of them rested throughout the game.  A solid rushing attack like this allows the Chiefs to win tough, low scoring games like last week, but their pass catching tandem of Cassel and Bowe is currently responsible for the most TD passes in the league.  The Chiefs are a very complete team this year, even on the defensive side of the ball… but I have to think that the Chargers are more desperate and will find a way to win an important game at home in December.  Expect a good game from Philip Rivers against the 21st ranked pass defense in the league and Malcom Floyd is the receiver most likely to have a good week for fantasy owners.  Antonio Gates is holding his spot at the top of my TE rankings, so don’t keep downgrading him for his planar fascia injury.  Jamaal Charles should have trouble consistently finding holes in the Chargers stout defensive front, but his big-play ability keeps him as a must start and a top 10 in my rankings.  Even after being shut down last week against Denver, Dwayne Bowe remains a must start as he leads the league with TD catches and has earned a free-pass.

Patriots at Bears

Despite receiving very little recognition, the Bears are 9-3 and atop their division.  They are hoping to stay a game ahead of the Packers, but face the best team (by record) that the AFC has to offer.  Tom Brady has made the league’s elite defenses look foolish each time he has played one in recent weeks, but possibly faces the best pass rush he will in 2010.  Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher are playing inspired football so far this season and have been adept at forcing turnovers (26).  Brady on the other hand has not thrown an INT since week 6 against the Ravens in an OT win.  Tom Brady passed Brett Favre for the longest home winning streak by a starting QB in NFL history, but the game is in Chicago!  I expect the Bears to win this game, if Cutler is able to keep playing smart football and not put the ball where defenders can make a play on it.  If he can reduce his mistakes and limit his turnovers to, at most, one… He will upset the Patriots and earn a win that would all but clinch a playoff berth for his team.  I really like Earl Bennett’s chances to exploit a weak and inexperienced Patriots secondary and to continue his hot streak for fantasy owners who have recently added him to their team.  Cutler should have a good day as well, but there is always the concern that he starts making bad decisions and throws a small handful of INTs to one of the league’s worst secondaries.   Lower expectations for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he remains a top 20 RB in my rankings for week 14.  Wes Welker is back to being a starting, quality, fantasy wide receiver finally and should be the one to see the most targets as Brady looks to his hot route to avoid the pass rush.

Raiders at Jaguars

The Jaguars have made a habit of being a part of the playoff conversation, but that almost always quiets down by the time the playoffs actually start.  The Raiders on the other hand have not played a game with meaning in December for quite a long time.  Jason Campbell has been playing some quality football and finally doesn’t need to worry about losing his job any longer with Bruce Gradkowski out for the year.  The Jaguars have not been able to cover any WRs that they have faced all season long and I do not expect that to start now.  The Raiders have embraced the youth on their team and have started to develop a new dynamic play maker in Jacoby Ford.   They have gone out of their way to get this guy the ball in space to let him make a play and it has been a quality strategy so far.  Because of this he is returning kicks, playing receiver, and even getting involved in the running game.  Don’t worry about sneaking Ford into your lineup unless you are desperate because we have all been burned by a Raider WR at some point during our fantasy football career… but he has stuck around and been a factor longer than anyone in his position in recent memory.  I like the Raiders to find a way to contain Maurice Jones-Drew (somewhat) and to make a few big plays and earn a tough win on the road.  The Raiders have managed wins against a lot of opponents better than the Jags in recent years and they have never had so much incentive.  Downgrade all members of the Jaguars passing game against a formidable Raiders secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha, but don’t be caught with MJD on your bench for some strange reason!  A lot of fantasy owners and analysts seem to have forgotten how good Darren McFadden has been this season, but with only two games all season (that DMC played in) where he did not toal 100 all-purpose yards and 3 consecutive good matchups… he is essential to any playoff run you hoped to make. DO NOT get caught with this guy on your bench.

No Comments »

Jets at Patriots

The Battle for the AFC East will be fought on Monday night this week as the Patriots play host to the cardiac Jets.  The Jets managed to win this match up when they were at home in week 2 this year, but in order to demonstrate they are a true threat to make it to the Super Bowl… they will need to prove they can go on the road and beat an elite team.  Despite the fact that the Patriots have the same record, I don’t foresee them being able to beat the Jets in this match up.  The Patriots’ pass defense has fallen to last place in the NFL and with the development of Sanchez coming along smoothly and the integration of Santonio Holmes into the Jets offense being finished, I am going to go out on a limb and say that the Jets complete a comeback win inside the last two minutes of the game.  Because of the Jets defense you should stay away from starting any and all Patriots players on your fantasy team… except Brady. Upgrade Sanchez and his receivers as the Patriots have proven they are not able to keep receivers covered for very long at all.  The Patriots run defense is solid, but they are not good enough to lower expectations for LT or Shonn Greene.

Texans at Eagles

The number two game on my list of must-see games this week is the Thursday night game on NFL Network tonight.  The Texans are another pass defense that does not seem to be able to cover anyone and until last week they appeared to have a strangle-hold on the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL.  On the other side of the ball Michael Vick is having an MVP season this year.  He has thrown just ONE interception thus far and while facing off against such a terrible secondary, Vick is sure to have a huge performance in this game and he has been locked in as my top ranked QB for the week.  Also look for great performances from each of the Eagles’ top two receivers as each has been a beneficiary of Vick’s play.  Lots of people have lowered their expectations for DeSean Jackson, largely due to the consistency of Jeremy Maclin… but no receiver in the league has the big-play ability that Jackson does and I feel he is a must start for the rest of the way.  The Eagles defense has been able to contain most of the RBs they have faced this season, but with Foster being the top rusher of the season… he remains a must start and it is reasonable to expect a good game from him this week.  Andre Johnson is still a stud and since he was not suspended, you still have to start him as he is the best all-around receiver in the NFL.  I expect a big win for the Eagles if they get Asante Samuel back in their lineup for this match up, but if not… this game could go just like the Bears game did.

Steelers at Ravens

A football fan’s favorite match up comes in as the third must-watch game of the week.  The past 10 or so years have featured elite defenses from both the Steelers and Ravens every year.  Since they face each other twice a year, there is also a rivalry element when these teams meet… which almost always leads to a hard-fought and entertaining defensive battle.  So, if you want to see long passing TDs and breakout offensive performances… your going to want to find a different game to watch.  Downgrade EVERYONE involved in this game on the offensive side of the ball, though with the struggles of the Ravens defense this year… your Steelers are likely still starters for your week 13 fantasy match up.  I expect the Steelers to create a big play or two with Big Ben’s scrambling ability and that should be enough to get the win in this game.  As for the Ravens on your fantasy team, don’t expect a big game from  Boldin… but with Ray Rice’s involvement in the passing game he will remain a top 20 RB.

No Comments »