Starting Fantasy Lineup
Dec
20
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 16

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Dec
13
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 15

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – To be clear, I couldn’t care less if RGIII plays or not.  Even if he plays, Morris’ workload WILL increase as a precaution to try and keep Griffen from running too much.  Morris was already an irreplaceable factor for this offense and given his youth, they won’t be afraid to lean on him.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers are headed on the road to New Orleans this week and that means there are two bad defenses on the field and the potential for a lot of points to be scored.  Jackson has been an amazing addition for Tampa and they have been able to keep him VERY productive.  They are going to have to throw deep to keep up with Brees and that should mean plenty of opportunity for VJax.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Law Firm has been on a tear lately and with a game against the Eagles (among the worst defenses in the NFL since firing Juan Castillo) this week, there is no reason to expect a change.  Law Firm is typically a mid-to-low end RB2 but in this matchu-up, he falls just outside the top 10.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – Alexander continues to be a force for the Chargers offense that took down Pittsburgh this past week.  Danario is a large man that uses that size to box-out defenders and give Philip Rivers somewhere to throw.  So far he is the only guy getting open with any consistency and that isn’t likely to change against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – There is no hotter QB in the NFL at the moment and especially so for fantasy owners.  Newton has had 37, 28 and 36 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks. Atlanta is the only defense that was really any good in this stretch but San Diego is far from a great defense too and I think, if your still alive in the playoffs, you’ve GOTTA keep Newton in there.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – This may seem like an obvious one here but Charles owners should have high hopes this week.  The Raiders are just 26th against the run and they are struggling as of late.  Charles is the entirety of the Kansas City offense and is almost certain to see the 100 yard mark this week.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The fact that Turner keeled over in exhaustion at the end of the game and by coincidence fell over the goal line does not give me any confidence.  Watch the tape people, this isn’t the same guy you had on your team three years ago.  He’s too slow to get through a hole and into the second and third levels like he used to, leave him on your bench because ALL of his value is at the goal line.  It’s like starting Michael Bush.

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I won’t be surprised if he gets a big game here but it’s about risk in the playoffs and that is one thing that Moore has in spades.  The whole Raiders team is floundering a little bit and while Moore was good for you in the middle of the season, don’t look for it here.  I know the match up is appealing but you need safe and consistent, not a hail-mary.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – The Packers do not have a crippling defense by any means but the Bears DO have a pretty bad offensive line.  Clay Matthews is set to return and with all that rest, he’s going to be coming back with a vengeance. If he gets in Cutler’s face early on, it will frustrate the Bears signal caller and we’ve all seen him play when he is frustrated.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Mr. Smith, have you met Champ Bailey?  You are about to.  Old man Bailey has been playing like he’s 25 again this season and he’s doing that all with the added experience that comes from actually being 34 years old.  Jim Caldwell will utilize Ray Rice much more now that he has the offensive coordinator position and that makes Smith nothing more than a poor flex option this week. 27th among WRs in my rankings.

Bryce Brown, RB, PHI – I can’t believe analysts can still put Brown as an RB 2 this week.  I had him at 20 last week, after consecutive great games and now that he just put up zero points last week, they have him higher… it doesn’t add up to me.  You won the lottery if you started this guy and won last week, don’t try and win it twice.

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Dec
06
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 14

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Not many teams have as strong of a commitment to the run as the 49ers do.  Colin Kaepernick didn’t have his best game passing the ball against the Rams this past week and in order to get back on track, I anticipate a heavy dose of Gore.  Don’t sweat the match-up either because the Dolphins are not the stout run defense that they were in the first half of the season. I blame the offensive for this as their inability to convert on third downs has led to a tired defense late in games and they simply get over run. Expect more of the same this week when the east coast team travels west.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I expect both Cruz and Nicks to do very well in this game. Let’s be honest about their opponent… Brees is NOT going to lay another egg like last week and the Saints defense is NOT going to be able to stop this Giants offense that really turned a corner last week on offense. Manning certainly played better than before the bye week but the timing was just a shade off against the Skins and I expect the throws to be right on time the rest of the way.  New York always finishes the season strong and because of that, I love their players during the fantasy playoffs.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET –There are a lot of negatives surrounding the Lions right now.  They dropped too many winnable games early in the season to be fighting for a playoff spot and injuries have decimated the receiving corps but Calvin Johnson remains healthy and that is enough for me.  The Packers secondary is their weak spot and with Clay Matthews looking to miss this game as well, Stafford will have plenty of time to let Megatron get open before he dumps it off to Pettigrew and Mike Thomas.  If somehow Stafford DIDN’T cost you your playoff spot, you can confidently start him this week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Bengals lost an offensive weapon (Mohammed Sanu) to IR this week and while it won’t have a big impact on the game plan, it could lead to a few extra run plays.  Given that the Law Firm has been playing by and far his best football of the season over the past three games, I am able to start him with as much confidence as I’ve ever been able to all year.  Dallas isn’t a good match-up but after what Bryce Brown did to them last week, I am far from scared of playing a quality running back against them.

Browns, D/ST, CLE – It takes a lot for me to step up and stake a claim to a defensive unit for my love list but here it is.  And it’s the Browns of all teams.  Everyone has been so surprised by the production of Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon and Brandon Weeden that they don’t notice that it is the defense keeping them a competitive ball club. The wins haven’t come but they also haven’t played any games against Brady Quinn yet.  Jamaal Charles will be productive but the Browns have as much value this week as they ever will and at 6 in my rankings, they are the defense that I am looking to on free agency this week.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – A TON of owners bailed on this guy after a few too many weeks on the inactive list.  I scooped him up in a few leagues and I have to say, he’s a great addition so late in the year.  This is the unquestioned top threat for RGIII, who is going to make plays regardless of who is on the field. Given the elite level of play that Griffen has been displaying on a weekly basis, it’s hard to imagine there being very many under-whelming games for Garcon.  He didn’t crack my top 20 quite yet but if he can find the end zone again this week, he’ll be there for sure for week 15.

Hate

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Throw away all the stats about what month it is because they are irrelevant, albeit fun to talk about.  Tony Romo has been awful all year.  The team sits at .500 and yet it’s been in spite of the play of Romo.  He is making poor decisions and turning the ball over far more consistently in years past and I can’t trust him to be a starter in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Josh Gordon, WR, CLE – I had written some positive things about Gordon leading up to my rankings and then, quite frankly, I wussed out.  I just can’t list a Cleveland Browns receiver inside my top 20 inside the playoffs. He fell to 28 in my ranks because I am not supremely confident that I can expect him to score a TD, even if it IS against the Chiefs.  There is even a decent chance that Richardson runs away with the game and the Browns aren’t focused on the vertical passing game.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – I am fully aware of how good he has been for you thus far but a lot of owners would be wise to sit him down this week against the Texans.  Houston can move the ball on offense however they chose, especially against such a weak defense.  This leads me to believe that they game plan will be heavy on Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels and a little lighter for Arian Foster.  The Patriots on the other hand, won’t have free reign on offense as they play host to one of the best defenses in the AFC.  Brady will need to be slinging the ball around and Ridley’s value will be too dependent on goal line work for me to call him a must-start, which I think most people would do.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – This is more so a cautionary warning for Brown owners with a bad memory.  He was AWFUL so far this season prior to the injury and when you add in the fact that Big Ben’s performance will likely be less than 100%, there isn’t a lot of faith that starting Brown won’t mean my season is over.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – I saw his game last week and I still can’t get myself to want to start this aging running back.  He even has a decent match-up against Carolina who I expect to lose by a fair margin, which would usually mean a fair amount of work to run clock and put the game on ice.  I am just too worried about the prospect of a 13 carry 45 yard performance with Rodgers and Snelling seeing a little bit more work to ensure the healthy of Turner in the post season.

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Nov
29
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 13

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton showed us all, last week, that he can still put up some BIG numbers against bad teams.  The team lost Jonathan Stewart and while fantasy owners wouldn’t believe it, it will have a negative impact on the team.  DeAngelo Williams has been the worse of the two and with him getting the lion’s share of the work, I believe the running game will suffer significantly because of it.  Expect them to ask Cam to pick up the slack around the goal line and expect him to have a nice day throwing as well.  He falls just outside my top 10 but only because Kaepernick has a little more upside to me.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – The Chiefs are pretty bad and unfortunately that can mean abandoning the run and looking to the air but Carolina is ranked 25th at defending the run and Charles is better than your average running back.  I think Crennel would like to keep his job and if that means winning more games, he just might give Charles another 30 carry game.  Don’t rely on that but if Charles starts strong, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see it.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – The way to beat the Lions is by passing.  They will be throwing a ton themselves (the leagues top passing offense), so you will have to keep up and their secondary is pretty porous.  Andrew Luck has been solid and Wayne has been great as he is on pace to beat his personal record for single season receiving yards.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t think he can hold up all the way through a playoff run, physically, and history backs me up on that.  However, the Giants need to MAKE the playoffs first and a key to that will be keeping Robert Griffen III off the field by running the ball with Bradshaw.  I don’t expect Coughlin to suddenly throw David Wilson out there more than he has to.  The Redskins defense is really bad too so i’m looking for a great performance from Bradshaw as well as the passing game.

Justin Blackmon, WR, JAC - I ranked Cecil Shorts considerably higher but Blackmon was the more surprising to me, considering that he was the second guy to make it into the top 25.  Buffalo’s defense has been pretty stout in recent weeks but that doesn’t mean that there isnt fantasy production to go around.  The weak spot, still, is the secondary and if Henne and the Jags wanna win some games, they will pass a TON this week.  Even if MJD makes it out there, you have to think it’s a limited touches scenario and the passing game will remain the feature of the offense.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – He’s started three games and even with one of them being as a tight-end, he has been the most effective receiver in every single one.  This is a really good flex-option and he is fast approaching WR 2 territory with another strong game this week.

Hate

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I didn’t know I hated Richardson till I finished my rankings and looked at what the other websites had up… TOP THREE?! Not for me.  He’s been great and I think he is one of the best RB2′s you can ask for but he’s a Cleveland Brown and that limits your upside significantly.  I would not start him over any of the elite guys just because of his nice match-up.  So, if you own Peterson, Doug Martin and CJ Spiller, which is incredibly possible, you just keep Richardson on your bench and don’t let anyone make you feel bad about it.

Danny Amendola, WR, STL – I wouldn’t blame PPR owners for playing him but even there he is a flex play at best against the incredibly stout 49er defense.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – People, hear me now and remember how right I was later… THIS IS NOT A TOP 10 RUNNING BACK.  He’s put up far too many awful performances, he plays behind an awful offensive line  and plays against the Texans this week.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE – I really thought he was going to be a flex play again for one more week but I just couldn’t do it. Not with your playoff chances on the line. Sit him down and live to fight another week.

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ – I really like Keller but he hasn’t been consistent and all I can think about is the fact that the Cardinals picked off Matt Ryan 5 times a couple weeks ago and now they play Sanchez.

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Nov
08
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 10

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – There are a lot of people out there that are under the assumption that the Patriots are a pass-first offense. New England has attempted 276 rushing plays and 323 passing plays.  A surprisingly even split when the perception is that they almost never run.  Ridley is the lead back on the NFL’s 4th best rushing offense and he is playing against the NFL’s 31st ranked rushing defense.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – Stafford didn’t knock his fantasy owners’ socks off last week with points.  He did however play pretty well and the team was running the ball with an effectiveness that we have really never seen before.  This ability to run the ball opened up Calvin Johnson in the passing game.  Stafford should bounce back well in the second half of the season.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson has been a fairly large disappointment in the past few weeks.  The Bills passing offense has fallen apart and they are leaning heavily on their running game.  But, I’ve got news for fantasy owners… New England’s secondary is awful.  Aqib Talib is not eligible to play for the Patriots yet as he finished out his suspension and it is reasonable to look for 100 yards and a score from Johnson this week.

Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC – It may be hard to get excited about a back up running back on the worst team in the NFL.  Sorry Jaguars fans, I don’t mean to offend, but they really are that bad. I am excited because this is a winnable game for Jacksonville.  They are playing at home against the 5-3 Indianapolis Colts, who have a terrible run defense.  They have been gashed by a variety of backs this season and Jennings will have more room to run in this game than any Jaguar back has all season.  Get this guy in your lineup unless your team is stacked.

Brandon Meyers, TE, OAK – The only thing that I am nervous about with Meyers is that he is on a west coast team that is traveling to the east, to play at 1pm.  Carson Palmer is playing pretty well as of late and Oakland is starting to improve.  Darren McFadden is banged up and even if he gets out there, which I doubt, he will have a limited role.  This means that Oakland will be opening up the passing game even more this week and Meyers has been a VERY sure-handed and reliable threat for Palmer all season.  He’s close to being a top 10 guy until further notice.

Brian Hartline, WR, MIA – If after last week, you still require more proof to believe me when I say that Tennessee is a bad team, your insane.  The offense was turning the ball over like crazy and the secondary couldn’t contain Brandon Marshall, who was the primary AND secondary receiver on every pass that Jay Cutler threw.  Hartline is no Brandon Marshall but he is a reliable weapon for Tannehill and could be in-line for his second best game of the season.

Hate

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – The Jets offense has struggled, to say the least, at times this season and while Greene has been able to put up some very good statistical performances, he has yet to WOW me when I watch the game film.  Seattle has one of this season’s best defenses and when they are at home, they can shut down ANYONE. This is not a good week to risk your fate on Greene or any New York Jet.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – A LOT of fantasy analysts have listed Mike Williams as a top 20 guy this week and honestly, I think that this is absurd. He has not had a 100-yard game in 3 weeks and while he has 3 TD’s in 4 games, I am not sure that there is any real certainty that he will be continuing this trend.  Don’t get me wrong, his value is on the rise and he is a viable flex option but a WR #2? Get real… not yet.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – IF you still love this guy, you haven’t seen his games.  You should have been in the market for a new QB already and Josh Freeman, Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck all found their way above Freeman in my rankings. Sit Romo down or you are asking to lose.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I was really upset when Johnson pulled the fluke 80 yard TD run out of thin air as the Titans were DOMINATED by the Bears last week.  If you take away that ONE play, Johnson would have gotten you just two fantasy points.  He is not a top 20 guy and just a flex-option because it is possible that he pulls another big play out of nowhere.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Dallas’s defense has been incredibly improved from last year.  That goes double for the secondary, which was simply awful last season.  Between that and how poor Vick has been playing lately, there is not much chance of quality production from Maclin.  DeSean Jackson gets ranked higher this week because he is far more likely to take a short pass the distance but even he is just a flex-play in a week where big-plays are not very likely.  If your desperate, you can use Maclin because NFC East games tend to be tough to analyze… anything can happen.

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Nov
01
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 9

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – Making a claim about VJax’s production is always playing with fire.  He takes plays off and looks slow and tired some games but coming off of a long rest following their Thursday night game, Jackson seems poised for a big game.  Josh Freeman has been playing great for 3 weeks in a row now and Jackson had all that time for his legs to get fresh.  Oakland is a soft match up for receivers too. REALLY like him this week, only bench him if you have three top 10 guys who are very consistent.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Yes, he’s been bad lately. Wildly inconsistent and not even close to what you were hoping for when you drafted him.  He still has a lot of big-play ability and his upside is still pretty high up there. He plays against a Redskins secondary that can’t stop anyone and can’t rush the quarterback.  This has the potential to be his biggest game of the season, even though his 37 points against Atlanta will be tough to top.  You would be foolish to bench him now.

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I was in the “don’t draft this guy” camp during the preseason. Mostly because people were so crazy in love with him that they were taking him in the first two rounds… Which I still think was insane and stupid.  But i’m becoming less and less confident about it with each passing week.  Clearly health isnt an issue after his big game last week and the Ravens defense has been being run on like crazy in recent weeks. He’s a top 10 guy with this match-up.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Its weird for me to have this guy outside my top 15 and classify him as a love… but the Eagles offense has struggled a lot recently, losing three straight games. The Saints as an opponent is nice though as their defense has been bad and their offense has still been effective.  Look for a high scoring game and look for Maclin to have a big game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – This guy has been playing like exactly the type of back that Steeler fans love to see. He’s quick to the hole and physical with the ball in his hands.  Ive heard some lofty comparisons to Bettis and while I won’t go there yet, I believe he is the new starting RB for the Steelers and in-line for 60% of the work, even after Mendenhall returns.  The Giants aren’t a great match-up here but in order to slow their pass rush, the Steelers will have to run the ball a good amount.

Hate

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – On talent alone, you HAVE to put him as a top 5 WR in the NFL.  Situation matters and the Cardinals are awful.  I still don’t know how they started 4-0 with no running game, no offensive line and just a slightly better than good defense.  This isn’t an 8 win ball-club even with the start and unless teams stop being successful at taking Fitz out of the game, I can’t even list him as a top 20 guy.  Sad to say but bench him.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – You may look at his recent performances and think he’s back.  I look at them and see a guy that can be productive against GREAT match ups, which is, with one exception, the only time he’s even been DECENT this year.  Guess what? Chicago is not a good match-up and Johnson is not a good play this week.  If he does well in this game, I will stand up and take notice and it WILL reflect in my rankings but I was actually disappointed with his performance last week so I am not going to reward him for being decent.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – I love their match-up and I like Thomas but he’s only gotten a fair-share of the work ONCE while Bush has been around and I’m not sold that he’s going to repeat that number of carries again.  Bush is a better back and especially for this match-up but Thomas is an OK fill-in or flex play as a goal line back if you need one pretty bad.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – If you’ve got Romo, you NEED other options.  Romo is like Jay Cutler without the good games this year.  He simply isn’t a starting caliber fantasy QB any longer.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Listen, I know he’s been good and I know that I wrote a section above this about the nice match-up, etc… But the WR talent pool is as deep as it’s been in my lifetime and Williams has not PROVEN to be a consistent threat. With bye weeks, he’s an acceptable plug in but he’s at 35 in my rankings… you can find better.

Michael Bush, RB, CHI – Did you think I was kidding in my one-liners post? Nope. HE is outside my top 30 and SHOULD be benched if at all possible.

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Oct
25
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 8

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – Willis has been good this year but he hasn’t done enough to deserve the top 10 rankings that he got this week.  The ranking is really about match-up with the Saints coming to Denver this week.  The Saints are allowing over 160 yards per game and McGahee doesn’t really share the workload.  Lastly, the Broncos will look to control the clock and keep Brees on the sidelines so that he will have a positive effect on McGahee’s number of carries.

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Ponder has been really good, except for last week. Even with 4 teams on bye he didn’t crack my top 10, but he did come in higher than Romo, Stafford, Rivers and Freeman.  Tampa Bay has the third best rush defense in the NFL and the second worst pass defense in the NFL, what do you think Minnesota is going to try and do?

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – Just one TD on the season is not really what fantasy owners were hoping for through 7 weeks of the season. This week is definitely where I look for him to have one of his best games of the season, if not the best.  The Redskins rank 32nd against the pass on defense and the fact that they have a VERY productive offense certainly helps things for the stats of their opponents.   Ben is probably going to face less pressure in this game than he has all season and Brown played pretty well last week.  Don’t think it’s time to bench Brown, it would be a big mistake.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – After two good games, I am ready to make a decision on Johnson.  He isn’t terrible! But his offensive line is.  He torched Buffalo last week and the Colts are another abysmal rush defense so the offensive line shouldn’t really keep him from some decent numbers.  Once the easy match-ups are done, I am selling this guy as fast as humanly possible.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas is the 15th highest scoring receiver in the NFL for fantasy owners but cracks my top 5 this week in my rankings.  Why? Well simply put, Brees WILL score points and while I wrote earlier that the Broncos will try and control the clock, there will come a time when that goes out the window and they will have to stretch the field vertically. With the Bronco defense not playing well this year, this game has a LOT of shoot out potential.

Hate

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I’ve seen some REALLY high rankings for Moore this week and I don’t get it.  I’m high on his chances at being a WR2 or quality flex play the rest of the way but with Brady Quinn at the helm and the Chiefs having a pretty poor rush defense, I am thinking that this will be more of a bounce back game for McFadden than a break out game for Moore.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Lions have been a pretty big disappointment this season and Stafford’s fantasy owners have felt it almost as much as Lions fans. OK, probably not that much but I promise you, it’s bad.  After last week, I’ve given up on Stafford as someone worth considering as a starting QB. I know his point total at the end of the game was decent but it all came in the last half of the 4th quarter.  He did a tad bit more than nothing through the rest of the game and isn’t even finding Calvin Johnson anymore. If your still a playoff contender, you need to make a trade.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – Talent isn’t the issue but the rest of his offense is.  The line is poor on their best day and they have not been able to run the ball with any sort of consistency.

Shonne Greene, RB, NYJ – Miami has a really strong rush defense and a secondary that  could use some work.  This game will need to be won on the arm of Mark Sanchez, NOT on the legs of Greene.  Despite the last two games from Greene, he is NOT even an RB2 the rest of the way.  You can do better, I hope.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – He’s been a very solid performer recently but Champ Bailey will be covering him is my guess and Colston has a LONG track record of inconsistency.  Play him but don’t expect huge numbers.  He is just a below average WR2 this week and a poor one when there are no byes.

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Oct
18
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 7

POSTED BY Big Jim | 3 Comments »

Love

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – Did you see what Shonn Greene did to this Indy rush defense? We have a new best match-up for running backs. Richardson is exponentially more talented than Greene is, in all honesty.  The Browns are still not my pick to win the game but I have a hard time imagining an outcome that doesn’t include at least a hundred yards and a score.  He may not be in my top 10 again this season but there is almost NO viable scenario where it is OK to bench Richardson this week.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – The Titans offense might not be great but Britt is roughly every time he steps onto the football field.  Buffalo’s secondary has been absolutely terrible and their defensive line has not lived up to the hype and provided the pressure to mask the poor coverage.  He would be top 10 if I was a little more convinced that he was 100% healthy but he’s still just outside my top 15 and a GREAT play this week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the top scoring receiver on the week.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – I can’t remember a pair of backs for the same team being as relevant as Spiller and Jackson appear to be.  Spiller is ranked higher but Jackson is almost must-start status as well. Tennessee’s defense as abysmal in the middle of the field.  No defense has allowed more rushing TDs inside the 5 yard line and Buffalo will want to control the ball on offense because their defense is going to have a HELL of a time covering Kenny Britt.

Lance Moore, WR, NO – I was under the impression that the Saints would continue to spread the ball and that Robert Meachem’s sporadic at best production wouldn’t change the workload distribution hardly at all.  I was WRONG.  Moore is a great flex option normally because of the reliable targets that he has been seeing and this week he has a GREAT match up with 6 teams having the week off.  This is another guy that might not get this high in my rankings again but for this week, he’s a top 10 guy.

Scott Chandler, TE, BUF – Rumor has it, you want to play your guys in this Bills/Titans match up.  Realistically I love CJ, Fitzpatrick, Kendall Wright and Donald Jones considerably more than normal this week too but I only have so many stats about how bad these defenses are so them guys are not going to get their own section of my post. As for Chandler, the Titans are the worst team in the NFL at defending the tight-end.  This isn’t just an opinion either, they have allowed more receptions, targets, receiving yards and touch downs to the opposition’s tight ends than any other team in the NFL. I have Chandler as my 6th ranked TE this week and I didn’t even make a mistake. Start him and thank me later.

Donnie Avery, WR, IND – Avery has been a nice surprise for the Colts this year and defenses can not spare any help to cover him.  Reggie Wayne has been lighting people up all season and Avery has cleaned up in single coverage.  Expect big things from Avery this week and absolutely use him as a fill-in as he faces the Browns and Joe Haden will be locked on Wayne for all 60 minutes.

Hate

I apologize for not having many hates this week but when 6 teams are on bye, you can’t afford to hate a starting RB or WR. There just isn’t enough depth out there to replace them.

William Powell, RB, ARI – I don’t care what he did in the preseason and I don’t care what he did last week.  Neither Ryan Williams OR Beanie Wells was able to run behind this TERRIBLE offensive line and unless its a primo match-up, Powell is nothing but bench depth.  I don’t even mind dropping him to be honest.  28th among RBs in my rankings this week and that makes him BARELY a flex consideration.  Only in the most desperate of circumstances, folks.

James Jones, WR, GB – You might be surprised to see Jones at 29 in my rankings but I have been THAT impressed by the Rams defense.  Looking back, I think I overreacted a bit and he should likely be closer to 25 or so but that is still really low considering his recent performance. He has a history of streaky play and while you may want to ride it out given your bye week problems but I am not betting on him this week personally.

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL – I understand if you don’t trust me here but I am REALLY nervous about what the defensive injuries will mean to this team.  I could EASILY see a blow out win for the Texans in this one as they are bound to be looking for vengeance.  You may be thinking that even a blow out will lead to a lot of junk time points but with the way the Ravens got run on by the Cowboys and the way the Texans run the ball every week, the Ravens offense might not be on the field late in this one.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – The Panthers offense is sputtering and there is still the obvious time-share concern.  Dallas’ defense has been the only thing keeping them competitive this season and this is just a terrible week to play EITHER Panthers back.  Play Powell instead… and you already know how I feel about him.

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Oct
11
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 6

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Love

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons are making an air-tight case to be considered the best team in the NFL over the first third of the season.  They are a balanced team on both sides of the ball and their only real weakness is running the ball.  This bodes well for them against a leaky secondary on Sunday when the Raiders come to town.  With Ryan at home and playing the way he is, he is on top of my QB rankings for the first time EVER.  Expect good things.

Andre Roberts, WR, ARI – I am going to keep this brief. I love both Cardinals receivers in this game. It is going to be high scoring and the Cardinals can not run the ball behind their offensive line, which is awful.  Roberts has been very consistent this season and if you haven’t seen the Bills’ secondary in action, I assure you… this guy is a good flex option this week.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m not being a homer with this call I don’t think.  I acknowledge that it is a fairly large gamble going with either Bills RB this week because of the question of how the carries will be divided up but Spiller has the better big-play potential and the Cardinals defense is pretty stout this season.  Spiller is also more likely to rip off a big play and take it to the house in the passing game.  I think the Bills offense will have a lot of chances because the Cardinals offense has allowed 17 sacks over the past TWO GAMES.  Take the risk, start Spiller.

Andrew Hawkins, WR, CIN – So they play the Browns which is an obvious plus but some people might not realize that Joe Haden has been suspended for 4 games and is now going to return.  Haden is the most under rated shut-down corner in the league and will be locked on AJ Green all game.  Green owners shouldn’t worry as he has been essentially match-up proof his entire career but Haden will be there to try and keep him in check.  This means that Hawkins will be in single coverage all game and Dalton is going to be throwing his way a lot.

Andy Dalton, QB, CIN – So I caught some slack for not having this guy in my top 10… even though he is at 11.  I understand how you might think he deserves it considering his production and the fact that Newton, Brees and Cutler are all on Bye but I can’t get there yet.  He has had some INCREDIBLY good match ups thus far if you look at the statistics and this week it is tougher than you’d think. I already told you that Haden is back and that I love Hawkins but what gets lost there is how much better this defense plays when they can roll coverage away from one side of the field and rely on man-coverage against the opponents top threat.  They will still put a safety over top of Green  fairly often but Dalton’s upside is not as high as you think it is. There is no better bye-week replacement this week but you still want your regular starters in there.

Hate

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – I was super impressed with last week’s game. He’s still a rookie and he’s thrown a lot of questionable passes this year. That performance speaks volumes about Luck’s career outlook but he still has to prove he can play like that every week and not just coming off a bye.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers offense has been a big disappointment.  I expected more from Doug Martin but blame the lack of a serious threat in the passing game.  Jackson is a frustrating hit or miss player but so talented that I usually say play him every week so you don’t miss the big games… not this week. You could easily have better options because the match up is harder than you’d thing.  Brandon Flowers will lock on VJax with a safety over the top and because of that, I think Jamaal Charles beats Tampa in spite of Brady Quinn.

Alex Green, RB, GB – I can’t see Green getting more than 50% of the carries. There is more comfort and trust with Starks who has actually played with the team before the Benson injury.  Green had over 50 yards. 40+ of which were on one run.  There is a lot of trust surrounding this guy so early and it is all completely unfounded.  I’m not a big Starks believer either, I just don’t trust either guy till they give me a reason.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Ravens have been great so far and Smith has been a solid fantasy-producer. He is not match up proof and is VERY sittable despite the bye weeks.  You may not be able to sit him but try to.

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Oct
03
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 5

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Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – I have watched a LOT of Redskins film this season because of all the RG3 questions.  While watching this film, I have fallen in love with the Redskins rookie. No, not Griffen! I’m talking about Alfred Morris of course! This guy has been a beast. He has a surprisingly few number of weaknesses that I can see on tape. He has phenomenal vision; In week 4, there was just one run where I was not sure why he went to the hole he did and he still made a 4 yard gain out of it because of his power. This guy squats 650 lbs, which is an insanely high number for a guy who is 5’11” 222 lbs. He is always moving forward when tackled and is VERY rarely taken down by the first contact. Not much else to say, he is a top 10 guy until he gives me a single reason not to believe in him.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – I assure you, this isn’t me over reacting to last week when Cutler played very well. I still feel he is risky and prone to bone-headed turnovers. But the Jaguars are among the worst teams in the league and their secondary is known to not be effective against elite receivers, which I believe that Marshall is. I look for both guys to have a really good game this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings are simply put, a MUCH better team than we anticipated. Harvin was a high draft pick on my board this year but he has still managed to out-perform my expectations. After all, he is currently the 16th best receiver in the league as far as fantasy points is concerned without scoring a touchdown in the passing game OR running game yet. He’s been great and he’ll be getting even better. I am not too worried about Jerome Simpson taking targets because Harvin is mostly a big-play guy anyways, he won’t need a high volume of targets to be productive.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – Jackie Battle is a hot waiver-wire pickup because all of a sudden, he is splitting time with Mathews. I want to caution Mathews owners a bit to not panic and bench their guy. You drafted him and your stuck with him until he starts producing and then you can make a trade but until then, you should LIKE the fact that Battle is seeing work. Mathews is among the least durable starting RBs in football by reputation and if he is sure to see 20+ touches a game, I don’t think he can possibly stay healthy.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – New England did a good job of containing Steve Johnson last week against the Bills and it led to Donald Jones having his most productive game of his career. I don’t have any worries about Demaryius Thomas but rather I am just demonstrating that no matter who it is, you want to play your potential starting receivers against the Patriots secondary.

Hate

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – This is a guy who, despite the bad week last week, is a must-start fantasy back. But after the speedy return from injury and considering the crushing match-up ahead of Buffalo, I caution you to think of the Bills RBs as a poor RB 2 or solid flex play this week and no more.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – I am still high on Garcon’s upside for the season and wish I owned him… but this week isn’t the best time to play him if you can avoid it.  I know it’ll be his second game back and he suffered no setbacks at all last week, but I think it best to temper expectations on him so that you don’t get burned. Atlanta isn’t a soft match up and Garcon is a flex play for me personally.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – The Panthers running game is a bit of a nightmare for fantasy owners under normal circumstances and with the Seahawks’ crushing defense coming to town, I want no part of Williams at all.  Stewart is a bad flex play but only because he is the more likely target in the passing game. Try and stay clear of both guys this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – If you read my stuff, you’ll see plenty of negative talk surrounding Ryan Fitzpatrick because I am a Buffalo native and die-hard Bills fan.  From a fantasy perspective however, he’s been pretty awesome as a QB2. He has been making some BAD throws all season and has a lot of turnovers. For fantasy owners, he has thrown more TD passes than any QB in the league despite his mistakes and benefits greatly from a punishing rushing attack.  This week, it looks like Buffalo will be down two offensive linemen and facing them 49ers. ONLY in 2 QB leagues is he a playable guy and even then, it’s mostly because we are missing the bye week guys.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – You still got to use him but he is at #8 in my rankings and that means you have to lower expectations quite a bit.  Seattle is in town and they have only allowed double digit fantasy points to the opposing QB once this year and Romo only had 12 in that game. I would be pretty surprised to see Newton over 20 points unless he has a big rushing day or a couple goal line rushing scores.

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