Saints at Falcons

This week’s Monday night game has been circled as the game of the season on my calendar since shortly after the Falcons went on the road to the Superdome to beat the Saints in week 3.  Going into this season many people (including myself) expected the Falcons to be a playoff team, but few expected them to be the class of the NFC.  Their dominance in front of their home crowd has been incredible and if they can manage one last home-win against the defending super bowl champion, the Falcons will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This would make them the heavy favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Saints are playing for their last chance to reclaim the division title, but in order to do this the Falcons would need to lose both this week and in week 17 at home against the 2-12 Panthers.  After watching the Falcons defeat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, I am a firm believer in their ability to beat ANYONE inside the Georgia Dome and I expect them to earn a narrow victory this week.  There is one thing that I am 100% positive of, this will be a great game and a must-see for every football fan.  Neither team has a stellar defense and all fantasy-relevant players are must-starts for this potential shoot out.  Matt Ryan, because he is playing at home, found his way into my top 10 QBs this week and considering my playoff philosophy of down grading the impact of match-ups and playing the more trusted and safe option… this is a big show of my confidence in him.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were a team in disarray, their offense was inept and there seemed to be a lack of play makers to step up and lead by example on the field.  Last week, Mark Sanchez led the Jets to a confidence-building win over AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The health of Sanchez is in question and it is looking as though he will be a game time decision, but for me it does not affect anyone’s fantasy value.  I do not trust Braylon Edwards in the playoffs against such a quality defense and Santonio Holmes remains the only Jet who I feel is worth a start in standard leagues.  Earlier in the season LaDainian Tomlinson WAS the difference maker for this offense, but due to his age he has slowed down and considering he has not scored a rushing TD since week 6, it is apparent that he is unable to fulfill this role any longer.  Now, in order to be the Super Bowl contender they were hoping to be earlier this year, they will need to look to their younger talent.

The Bears are division champions in their first year with offensive coordinator Mike Martz and their defense has quietly been one the best in the league.  They face another of the league’s best defenses and have a QB known for his poor decision making abilities.  The only Chicago player worth starting for fantasy-owners is Matt Forte but as I said in my Hate list yesterday, you should not expect a big game from him.  I think the Bears win this defensive battle, because they are a more balanced team and have bigger individual play makers on defense.  Julius Peppers is who I believe makes the difference in this game as he has done all season long for the Bears.

Colts at Raiders

All is right with the world, the Colts are back on top of their division.  They will need to finish the remainder of the season without Austin Collie due to his third head injury of the season and they will be a lesser offense because of it.  Joseph Addai is finally back to full participation in practice and appears to be a sure thing to start against a weak Raiders run defense.  He has missed enough time that I do not expect him to be featured as the lead back quite yet, but he will likely split carries with Donald Brown and make both of them too risky to start for fantasy-owners.  Reggie Wayne remains a top 10 WR this week despite facing Nnamdi Asomugha who, unlike Darelle Revis, does not typically shadow the opponent’s top receiver for the entire game.

The Raiders have been a surprising team this season.  Despite a mid-season QB controversy, the Raiders have found their way to 7-7 with a 5-0 record against divisional opponents. Because of this division record, they are heavily favored in tie-breakers and should find their way into the post season if they win these last two games.  They match up well against the Colts with their strong running game led by Darren McFadden, who is having a breakout, Pro Bowl caliber season.  Recently they have been trying to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Jacoby Ford, who has been a dynamic play maker in a variety of ways on both offense and special teams.  Being the playoffs however, Run DMC (McFadden) is the only player worth the risk in this game which I believe the Colts will win by a VERY narrow margin.

Giants at Packers

The Packers narrowly missed upsetting the New England Patriots last week with backup QB Matt Flynn in command of their offense.  Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go this week after his concussion that he suffered in week 14.  He faces one of the league’s best pass rushes, but this is one of the best passing attacks in the league and we can expect big statistical performances from both Rodgers and his top receiver, Greg Jennings. Green Bay has been hindered this season by their lack of a running game, but have been able to remain consistent for fantasy-owners despite this short-coming.  I do like the Packers to win this game, but I fear for their ability to succeed in the playoffs without a more balanced offense.

Last week the Giants suffered a demoralizing loss at the hands of Michael Vick and the Eagles.  This week they will have trouble against one of the best and most explosive offenses the NFC has to offer this week against the Packers.  Eli Manning has had a lot of issues with turnovers this season and his ability to minimize them in this game will be the deciding factor.  The Giants success lies in the hands of their running game, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs sharing the load.  They were not able to close-out the win last week and I expect the turnover problems to persist after the emotionally unsettling loss last week.  Because of that, I believe the Giants will lose this game, but it will be a close and well fought game!

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Love

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – The Eagles face a stout defense that will need to spend a TON of time on the field this Sunday. Last week, the Bears drew up a blueprint for how to beat Joe Webb. They were very effective at disguising pressure and forcing Webb to make mistakes. With the ballhawks in the secondary for the Eagles, don’t be surprised to see a blow out come from this Sunday night game.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Isn’t it the law that I have to love running backs against the Bills?  It should be!  Despite having a decent performance last week against the Dolphins, the Bills run D is still ranked 32nd in the league.  Don’t expect the Pats to look past Buffalo either, especially not after such a narrow escape against Matt Flynn and the Packers.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – The Steelers are likely to obliterate the Panthers this week at home on Thursday night. Wallace is a huge part of their vertical passing game and should see his share of targets early on in the game.  If he is not able to haul one in before it gets out of hand Wallace owners could be in trouble, but I don’t think the Panthers will be able to cover him with any consistency.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Except for in Week 14 against the Redskins, Blount has been a major contributor against each below average defense the Buccs have faced since he took over the starting job.  Despite breaking the road game losing streak for the Lions last week, look for the Buccaneers’ young core group of players to rebound strong and be able to produce offensively.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – There is a lot going for Ryan here.  He beat the Saints on the road earlier in the season and he is a much more efficient and productive QB at home.  The Saints offense will score points and force Ryan to air it out plenty in this game and he should be able to produce a quality outing for fantasy owners regardless of whether they win or lose.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – The Broncos face the Texans this week, who are on pace to be the worst pass defense in NFL history.  While Tebow scares me some, his ability to run will force defenses to stay honest and Lloyd was targeted enough last week to maintain some value going into your Super Bowl.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – The Titans play the Chiefs this week who are allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground.  I think we can all agree that Johnson is better than the average running back and with Kerry Collins able to move the ball effectively through the air, you shouldn’t be shy about playing your first round draft pick.

Hate

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Since the Bye week, Moreno has been a picture of consistency.  Last week he got hurt and was not able to finish the game.  If somehow this didn’t knock you out of the playoffs, stay away from Moreno this week.  Tebow will be running a little more and these carries will be taken from Moreno.  Couple that with his sore ribs and he is just a little bit too risky for my liking this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Boldin has really only had one good game this season and it was a 3 TD outing against the same opponent that the Ravens face this week.  With his incredible lack of consistency, there is no reason you should risk starting him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – I expect this to a be a one-sided affair and the Bills are clearly not who I anticipate winning.  He is a solid QB2 play, but there are better options for standard leagues.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Many teams would not be able to recover from the crushing defeat that the Giants suffered last week.  It is tough not to be mentally affected by a let down like that and since Aaron Rodgers is looking to return in time for this week’s game, they would have their hands full under the best of circumstances.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – Marshall has TDs in consecutive games for the first time all year and just caught 11 passes last week against what was the league’s 4th ranked defense.  With that said, after a long disappointing season the odds are pretty bad that he is able to put together another quality performance even with his very nice match up. Consider him a flex play at best this week.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – You’re still going to need to start him because of his involvement in the passing game, but lower expectations of Forte this week as he faces the Jets.  Their injuries have weakened their front 7, but the Jets’ blitzing scheme is still among the best in the league.  If Forte is to be successful he will need to break a fair few tackles in the backfield.

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Studs

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – After being pretty well shut down for the first three quarters of the game, Vick picked the Eagles up and carried them to an amazing comeback victory that many are calling the Miracle at The New Meadowlands. Vick was personally responsible for 372 of the Eagles’ 418 yards.  He made one hell of a convincing argument for the NFL MVP and earned the top spot in my rankings for next week.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Rice had by far his best game of the season, with 31 carries for 153 yards and a TD, as well as 5 receptions for 80 yards and a second touchdown.  With the Browns as opponents next week, Rice is sure to have another solid performance and just in time for your super bowl.  Colt McCoy does provide stability and efficiency for the Browns offense, so don’t expect a repeat performance.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – He only caught five passes on 7 targets, but racked up 112 yards with THREE scores.  This is exactly why people drafted him in the late rounds, knowing it would take until at least half of the season for him to touch the field.  He is a top 10 WR as far as talent is concerned and with one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL throwing to him, he is a must start this week against the Bengals’ injured secondary.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – This is by far the best performance of Week 15 that NO ONE got the points for.  There have been many opportunities for Grossman to prove that he can be a starting QB in the NFL and he has never before managed to sustain success.  I will be assuming that this was a fluke, but regardless of how average his talent may be, the Jaguars do not have a very good secondary.  I am much more intrigued with Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong, but Rex should be able to get you double digit points if you are desperate for a QB2 in your super bowl.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Finally, the Bengals used Benson as their work horse and he saw over 30 carries in this game.  It looked oddly reminiscent of last season, when they were a winning football team.  With the Chargers coming into town there is little reason to assume the Bengals will be able to run the ball for long.  They should be down by a sizable margin by halftime and unable to provide the number of carries that Benson will need to be this productive again.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – This is the perfect scenario for Manningham to be productive.  I do not think he is good enough to be the top receiver and he is not able to maximize his potential as the slot receiver.  By being 2nd on the depth chart he avoids double teams and is on the field enough to really get into a rhythm with Manning.  He managed 8 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs in his new role and I like Manningham as a low-end WR2 or great flex play in your super bowl.

Bears, D/ST, CHI – The Bears’ D outscored Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson… this is no easy accomplishment!  If they had Webb leading the Vikings offense all game, there would have been more turnovers (though they did force an INT from Favre on a nice tipped pass at the line of scrimmage).  They were able to disguise their blitzes in order to confuse Webb all throughout the second half.  They should have a good game against the Jets inconsistent offense, in what should be a low scoring affair.

Jason Witten, TE, DAL – This makes 4 great fantasy-performances in a row under Jason Garrett and there is little reason to think it will stop with a game against the Cardinals coming up. It will be either Witten or Vernon Davis at the top of my TE rankings this week but i’m pretty sure you don’t own them both so don’t over think it, Witten is a must start for your Super Bowl match up.

Duds

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – I am almost lost for words about how disappointing his level of production and consistency has been in his new offense.  Whether you like it or not, Derrick Mason is the top receiver on the Ravens offense and Boldin cannot be trusted for your super bowl this week.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs was only able to muster 3 fantasy points after stringing together some very nice outings over the past few weeks.  This is primarily because they were not able to close out the game against the Eagles.  With Vick controlling the ball for the vast majority of the 4th quarter, Jacobs was on the bench during the part of the game where he normally excels.

Reggie Wayne, WR, JAC – The reason for this week’s 3 point game is pretty simple, Collie did a great job in the first half and stole the show.  In the 2nd half, Donald Brown was able to efficiently close out the game with the best performance of his short career. Wayne is still a top 5 wide receiver and should be in your lineup when the Colts play the Raiders next week.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Another hugely disappointing game with just 1 point for his fantasy owners.  Meanwhile, Maurice Morris was able to get 17 points.  Leave Best on your bench and if you have no better options than Morris, go ahead and use him!

Vernon Davis, TE, SF – To say that the 49er offense had troubles on Thursday is putting it mildly.  Their struggles should not be blamed on Alex Smith, who played a decent game.  He got no help from any of his receivers and all he needed was someone to step up and make a play.  That person should have been Davis, but the play calling of their newest offensive coordinator did not make an effort to get the ball into his hands.   You have to keep playing him, because hopefully they will realize how important he is to the synergy of their Frank Gore-less offense.

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI – After a big week 14, Hightower let his fantasy-owners down against the Panthers of all teams.  I did not expect him to top 100 yards, but I certainly thought he would manage more than two points!

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As we head into the championship week for the vast majority of leagues, there are fewer players worth the risk of starting and this severely limits the list of potential pickups.  Upside is a largely useless consideration at this point, unless you are desperate (but if you are desperate, you’re probably no longer in the running for your league’s championship).

Pickups

Donald Brown, RB, IND - Before the season, I liked Brown quite a bit.  He looked to get a fair share of the work and was a bargain on draft day in the very late rounds.  The reason for him being expected to see a lot of work is the contract situation for the aging and injury-prone Joseph Addai.  This is the last year of his current contract and there would be little reason to sign him again if you have a guy worthy of the starting job already on your roster.  Since Brown was a round 1 draft pick, there were high hopes that he would have a breakout year but that was not the case.  He racked up 18 points this week when everyone had given up hope and now, if Addai misses another week, Brown will be a worthy start in your flex spot.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK - He is still very risky, but he is a game-changing talent that the Raiders try to get involved in a variety of ways.  He is a threat to run (71 yard TD run this week), catch a big pass, or return a kick for a TD whenever the ball is in his hands.  As long as Oakland looks to get him involved, he is a risky flex play in deep formats.  Even if you don’t plan to use him yourself, don’t leave him to your opponent who might get a big game from him.

Colt McCoy, QB, CLE – With Grossman and Tebow each VASTLY exceeding our expectations for how they would perform, why is it McCoy on my list of pickups? Well it came down to McCoy or Grossman for me, so if you can’t get Colt, then you know who you should target next.  McCoy has seen extended playing time in 6 games this season and in all but one of them, he put up double digit points… including a week 6 loss to the Steelers.  He does play against the Ravens next week (compared to Grossman vs. Jacksonville), but the Baltimore defense has not been lights-out like it has in the past and they currently are ranked 14 against the pass.  This makes him the guy with the least risk involved, if you have to get one of the newly-starting signal callers for your two-QB league to make your championship run.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Next week the Texans play against the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos.  Champ Bailey might be getting old, but he is still among the best corner backs in the league and with some help from the safety position, he can take some of the better receivers out of the game.  Andre Johnson will not be shut-down but with all the attention that is sure to be paid to him, Walter will see a lot of man coverage and is likely to have a decent game.

Derrick Ward, RB, HOU - Arian Foster left this game early with a muscle spasm.  It is still not yet clear the extent of the injury, but a muscle spasm doesn’t sound severe.  If he is to be limited or miss any time, then Ward is savvy veteran worth a start in your flex position.

Josh Morgan, WR, SF – This is Morgan’s 2nd straight game where he has been the top-producing receiver as he catches 7 passes on 9 targets for 106 yards.  The 49er offense was struggling against the league’s top defense, but Alex Smith played decent and since they are still alive in the playoff race, you can count on them pulling out all the stops and playing for their entire season next week.  I would still rather start Crabtree, but Morgan has certainly earned some attention in deeper formats.

Dump List

Austin Collie, WR, IND - He suffered his third concussion on a hard hit in this game and after a great first half in this week’s game against Jacksonville, it really is a shame that he cannot stay healthy for very long. Blair White should be the slot receiver for the Colts the rest of the fantasy-season.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Even though the Jets got a huge win this week and produced against the most talented defense in the league, Greene has a tough outing next week against the Bears stout run defense. Given he will be splitting carries, he really just doesn’t have the chance to produce like you need in your fantasy super bowl.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS – Torain is the guy, enough said.  This would be a completely wasted roster spot, should you hold Williams.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - I will like him next year, but Mason is the top guy in Baltimore this season and until he retires I do not think that will change.  If you own him, you need little prodding to at least leave this inconsistent threat on your bench.  I am also aware that in his last game against the Browns he had 3 TDs.  That was too long ago to think it will happen again.  Only drop him if there is someone worth playing, but you definitely shouldn’t start this guy.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Even in a win, when the offense looked as sharp as it ever has… he was barely able to produce.  He is still their best red zone passing target, but expect the running game to continue the heavy lifting.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – This goes for Lance Moore as well, the Saints receivers (other than Colston) are too hit or miss for playoff consideration.  They have 0 points or 20 points, so with what looks like a 50% chance to get you a goose-egg, get these guys off your team or at least on the bench.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN - He may as well be inactive for fantasy-owners… at least then we wouldn’t be tempted to start him.  Get yourself a new TE if you have made it this far with Shiancoe.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - The only way you own this guy and are still in the playoffs is if you haven’t been using him!  He still has not had a double digit fantasy performance since week 2 and there is no reason to expect that to change against the Dolphins next week.

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