Pickups

Earnest Graham, RB, TB – Graham did a great job filling in for Blount this week and solidified his spot in this article today by gaining 131 yards Sunday. I expect Blount back, but even as a backup Graham has value in PPR formats. Graham is 4th in the NFL in receptions among RB’s, which puts him above Chris Johnson, Fred Jackson and Ray Rice. Take note PPR players.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Houston is not the same team without Andre Johnson but as I thought, Jacoby Jones is the guy you want to take a chance on in Johnson’s absence. This week Jones was able to haul in 4 catches on 7 targets for 73 yards and a score. This is more than acceptable for a flex play.

Dallas Clark, TE, IND – Clark was targeted 7 times in this game and managed 53 yards and a score. Losing a fumble kept him out of double digit points, but I think he still needs to be owned. Without Manning he is no better than a top 10 guy, but last I checked that makes him a weekly starter and a lot of people dropped him too soon.

Danario Alexander, WR, STL – I’ve made my choice for which Rams receiver I would want to start should I need to. It’s nothing more than apparent trust with Bradford either. While three different receivers were targeted exactly 10 times, Alexander hauled in 6 of them for a team-high 91 yards receiving.

Arrelious Benn, WR, TB – The Buccs made a statement when they beat the Saints in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. After being dismantled by the 49ers last week, many people (myself included) were questioning whether they would have what it takes to be a playoff contender late into the season. The answer is in: maybe. Tampa is a young and dangerous team, they beat an NFC powerhouse with a total team effort. Back up RB Earnest Graham proved he has fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues by doing a great job filling in for LeGarrette Blount. The defense intercepted Brees 3 times and Tampa put themselves on top of the NFC South. Benn has made some explosive plays and is worth a roster spot to me in some deep formats.

Dump List

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I do a lot of warning about Raiders receivers lately. I am OK with picking one up after a big game if you have an open roster spot, but don’t not pick up someone on my pickups list to save room for any Raider receiver not named Jacoby Ford.

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Sproles has been the surprise stud of the Saints’ running backs and with Ingram handling most of the traditional carries, Thomas just doesn’t have enough work left over to be much of a factor. Unless someone gets hurt, you can’t risk starting Thomas.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – He’s still owned in almost half of leagues. Really? When will you guys finally give up!? It’s definitely time to drop this once great receiver.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – Still owned in a quarter of all leagues. Jackie Battle is the guy and Jones is done. McCluster has the 3rd down back duties and I wouldn’t even start Jones if Battle went down for the season next week.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Cutler actually had time to throw this week and Knox STILL couldn’t get it done. I’m more than OK with dropping Knox at this point… I recommend it.

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Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Inactive

Chris Cooley, TE, WAS - Active

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS - Active

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Lines

Sunday Night Football Line

Monday Night Football Line

I’M TAKING

At Green Bay -14 St Louis

St Louis can’t get out of their own way and Green Bay’s passing attack is top notch.  There has not been a team yet this season that has stopped Aaron Rodgers, and his only “down” game this season was last Week in Atlanta when the Packers STILL covered the spread.  St. Louis, as I’ve been saying all season, may be competing with the Dolphins as the worst team in the league.  Sam Bradford will be spending a lot of time on his back and on the sidelines watching Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic at home at Lambeau.  This might be my favorite game of the week and I’ll take the Packers to cover -14.

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s defense has flown slightly under the radar this season but they just aren’t capable of keeping up with Big Ben.  It’s seems Mr. Handsy finally got his act together last week and threw for 5 TD’s in a big win.  Blaine Gabbert looks like he could be a good QB in the future but a road game at Heinz Field with the Steelers blitz packages ruining his day will certainly not make him look good.  I think Jacksonville will try to control the clock and pound the ball with MJD early, but I see the Steelers getting up by 14 at the half and not looking back.  I like Pittsburgh to cover -12 at home against an inexperienced Jags squad.

At Detroit -4 San Francisco

If anyone tells you that they thought SF and Detroit would be a combined 9-1 going into this game, they would either be lying, or should be passing you whatever they’re smoking on.  With Detroit’s stable of 1^st round/ high round picks it’s not hard to see why they’re successful.  But, SF is essentially getting the job done with retreads and a QB that was left for dead no less than two times since being taken #1 overall ahead of Mr. Aaron Rodgers.  SF has taken big steps forward this year un Harbaugh and I see them winning their weak division this season, but I just think that Detroit is too good not to win at home by a least a TD.  Stafford and Megatron have been on the same page all year and they show zero signs of being stopped.  Although I think SF keeps it relatively close, I like Detroit to cover -4 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At New England -6.5 Dallas

To tell you the truth I actually think I would bet Dallas getting 6.5 points in this game but Tom Brady’s ability to lead this team to a win and to dominate games at home scares the hell out of me.  Dallas offense is finally healthy coming off the bye week and New England’s last ranked defense can’t stop the pass at all, and in all honesty its flat out pathetic.  I think Dallas is actually going to pull out the win in this game.  I like the Cowboys with points but it’s in no way a safe bet.  I wouldn’t put money on this game unless you’re feeling lucky because it could swing back and forth all day and end up going either way

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis

Indy might be a disappointing team at 0-5 but since their switch to Curtis Painter they’ve been in every game and it’s been pretty close.  Cincy has a good defense and can keep their inconsistent offense in games.  I think Cincy has a chance to cover -7 and will probably do it.  My biggest issue is with betting the game, not the actual game.  You need to put your money on the safest games possible if you hope to win and with two unbelievably up and down teams like this, nothing is assured.  I stay away from games like these every Sunday and you should too.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Chicago -3 Minnesota

I’ve been down on Minnesota all season and I don’t care if they rode Adrian Peterson’s monster first half to a win last week.  They suck, McNabb sucks and they are a horrible team to put your money on.  Although Chicago hasn’t looked stellar so far this season they have the better team and its not up for debate.  With the home team only getting -3 points it makes you take a second to consider the game because Vegas is giving Minnesota more than a punchers chance in this one but I don’t like the Vikings at all this season and I’ll take Chicago to cover -3 at home.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At New York Jets -7 Miami

These two teams are both playing very ugly, unwatchable football this season, with Miami playing only slightly worse than the super talented Jets.  Miami is starting their backup QB Matt Moore this week and I think that even with the added time to prep with the bye week last week Miami still goes to the Jets and gets beat.  This game is going to be an ugly ass game to watch though and very easily could end up 14-6 the way these two teams are playing.  I don’t like this game to bet at all, but if you’re looking for my thoughts, I think the Jets bounce Miami and BARELY cover -7 points.

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Question 1: Asked by @aglikas

Would you trade Steven Jackson for Dez Bryant?

Answer

If you have a guy willing to do this, then go for it! Bryant is a play maker and Romo looks to find him at all times during the game. He will have some lack-luster performances at times because Miles Austin is back and healthy, but the Rams offense has scared me early in the season and I am VERY concerned about Jackson’s ability to make plays at his age. He definitely still has some gas in the tank, but he lost a step and that makes a HUGE difference on Sundays.

Question 2: Asked by @MFarrell21

Heyward-Bey or Avant this week?

Answer

So this depends on the quality of your opponent this week in my opinion. Avant is the safer play. He is a possession receiver and is less likely to get you zero points. If you need a big day to beat one of the top scoring guys in your league, then you want to start Heyward-Bey.  Haden is out for the Browns and Darrius has seen an increase in targets over the past few weeks. Most all of us have been burned by our trust in an Oakland wide-out, but they do tend to have big games randomly and if that’s what you need, then go for it. The Raiders receiver that I would prefer to start is Jacoby Ford, due to his involvement in the running game and the fact that Oakland is always looking to get the ball in his hands in open space.

Question 3: Asked by @jersymikejr

Branch or Manningham?

Answer

I am not worried about Manningham’s recent drought at all. Cruz is bound to limit his targets, but Mario is a crisp route runner with good size and speed.  I expect him to develop into his role as a possession receiver and still be able to put up numbers consistently. Branch on the other hand is about to see less time on the field with Hernandez back and Brady able to line up in two-TE sets all the time again.

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Bills at Giants

I am very excited to watch my Bills play this weekend as they go on the road to face Eli Manning and the Giants. The last time Buffalo played on the road they were beat by an inferior Bengals team as Fitzpatrick struggled against a stout defense.  The Giants defensive front is phenomenal and finally healthy. Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly having a breakout season and with Osi Umenyiora back, the Bills’ offensive line is in for a long day. It will be up to Scott Chandler and the running backs to aid in protection because if they can give Fitzpatrick time, Steve Johnson and David Nelson will be able to get open. Terrence McGee will finally be on the field after injuring his hamstring in the season opener and this is very good news for Bills fans. The Giants have one of the best wide receiver trio’s in the NFL now that Victor Cruz has emerged as a play maker. Hakeem Nicks is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and Manningham is a very complete receiver with great hands who runs very crisp routes. The story of this game will be simple: turnovers. Buffalo’s secondary has been incredibly opportunistic and has forced 4 INTs from both Tom Brady and Michael Vick this season. Eli Manning had issues with turnovers last week against the Seahawks, throwing 3 interceptions. If the Giants want to win this game, they have to protect the football and pressure Fitzpatrick.  Rookie Chris Hairston has a tall-task in his second start filling in for the injured Demetrius Bell at left tackle, but nothing slows down the pass rush like an effective run game and I like Buffalo to win a close game this week on the shoulders of Fred Jackson.  I would not sit any of your fantasy players in this game because these offenses are not going to be stopped completely. Eli Manning remains an good QB2 option, but I am too nervous about him throwing too many INTs to start him in standard leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw has the best match up here and will see a lot of use unless the game gets out of hand. David Nelson makes a very nice flex play because the loss of Donald Jones should lead to an increase in targets for Nelson.

Cowboys at Patriots

This game should be an entertaining one to say the least. Tony Romo is always the deciding factor in big games for the Cowboys, he either makes unbelievable game winning plays or bonehead mistakes that hand the game to his opponent. Maybe it’s wishful thinking as a Bills fan but I think that with an extra week to prepare and Miles Austin back in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to squeak out a victory in a nail-biter. The deciding factor for me is on defense; in the last 5 years no one has tallied more sacks than DeMarcus Ware who tallied 72 in that time frame. Of the two defenses, Dallas’ is the one that I think has the best chance to impact the game and force a couple turnovers. The smart money is certainly on New England because Dallas is not going to be able to contain Wes Welker and Tom Brady WILL score points. Neither defense is a scary match up for fantasy owners of all players in this game. I think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are must starts along with Wes Welker who is on pace to break a few records this season. Tom Brady and Tony Romo should both be started with confidence as well but I don’t know as though any running back will have a huge game here. Each team has a weak secondary and plays a pass-first style of offense.

49ers at Lions

San Francisco has really impressed me after a slow start on offense. An easy schedule and a few timely punt returns have gotten them off to a 4-1 start and they have really started to impress me over the past two weeks on offense.  Alex Smith is playing smart and safe football and Frank Gore has been over 100 yards for the past two games. Detroit has been almost perfect over the first 5 games and they look to remain undefeated. This game will need to be won in the trenches. Detroit has invested a lot of high draft picks on their defensive line and San Francisco has invested their recent draft picks in their offensive line.  So far this season these young groups of lineman have been a huge part of their teams success and I think whoever wins THIS match up wins this football game. San Francisco has to keep Stafford and Megatron on the bench with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. Carlos Rogers is playing the best football of his life for the 9ers and has a pick in three straight games after returning one for a TD last week. I actually like San Fran to win a close game with a big play on defense giving them the edge. You have to start all your Detroit Lions though; Jahvid Best will be one of the best RB2 options for fantasy owners until he gets hurt and Calvin Johnson is by far the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy-purposes. Matthew Stafford is a very viable starter, but I don’t think he has too much big-game potential against this defense.   Alex Smith is an option in a pinch for 2 QB leagues if your having bye week issues, but I would stay away if possible.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons need to prove that they are a Super Bowl contender this year and Turner has been their most consistent performer. Cam Newton has been a play maker and has been finding a way to put up numbers against EVERYONE he has played. With the Falcons’ defense not playing up to expectations either, I think a heavy dose of Turner is the best way for the Falcons to avoid an upset at home.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Austin is coming off an injury and I would expect him to have a slow start, but the Patriots score a ton of points and struggle to stop opposing QBs.  I don’t think Dallas wins this game, but Austin and Bryant should be in for big statistical performances as they will play from behind and have little trouble passing the ball.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Last week was a bit of a let-down for Benson owners, but he ran well and was far from a dud. This week he goes against the Colts who have not been able to stop anyone on the ground all season. Benson sees a lot of carries and Cinci tries to run first to take pressure off Andy Dalton, who will hear the footsteps of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney all day.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – Buffalo struggles to defend opposing tight ends. Ballard has TD’s in two straight games and this is not something you can expect to continue after this week, but the numbers say that Ballard is likely to make it three games in a row this week against the Bills. He is still outside my top 10, but if you have to fill a gap for your bye week, Ballard has a pretty good shot at a nice statistical performance.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – He hasn’t been active much, but he looks like a punishing runner when he is. Thomas goes against the Jets this week who have just had a terrible run game as of late and with Matt Moore at QB, Thomas will be the focal point if he is able to go.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith had a breakout game in week 3 and then people kind of seemed to forget about him.  He did put up a goose-egg against the Jets the following week, but Flacco looked for him a fair few times and on one play specifically he beat Revis deep. The throw was just a hair too far, but if it had connected we would be talking about him like a top 20 guy right now. He has only had just one game with fantasy points so I don’t think he is a really smart start but with bye weeks upon us, if your digging deep for a flex play… don’t just look past Smith.

Hate

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – I see a lot of people have Eli inside their top 10 QB’s and that is crazy to me. The Bills’ secondary has been playing great as of late and Eli has been known to struggle with turnovers.  Buffalo leads the NFL with 12 INTs on the season and three consecutive games with a pick 6. Eli will keep his receivers’ stats up there, but I think that interceptions will keep him from crossing the 20 point mark this week.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – It’s not about his talent and it’s not about the match up. We just simply don’t know how the carries will be divided. I expect Hightower to be the third down back and Torain to see the most work. But I would NEVER bet on how Shanahan will use his running backs. Hightower is a flex play at best this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Playing with a Raiders receiver is a lot like playing Russian roulette for fantasy owners. Heyward-Bey has seen a lot of targets as of late, but I am not going to think that the emotional performances from Sunday are likely to repeat themselves. I have written about Darrius before as well as Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schillens and Denarius Moore over the past few season and not one of them were able to do anything consistently. Jacoby Ford is the receiver I want to start from this team if I need one and it is because they use him in the running game.

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT – Redman is the best bet to see the goal line carries even if Mendenhall was active, but he is not too likely to see much more work no matter who is inactive. Dwyer was just a better runner last week and if Mendenhall doesn’t go, I would rather start Dwyer over Redman.

James Jones, WR, GB – Don’t let one big game cause you to bring a guy from free agency straight into your lineup.  Any receiver can have a big game with Aaron Rodgers at QB and last week was Jones’ turn.  Odds are it’ll be a few games before he manages to make such an impact again.  Jennings, Finley and Nelson are all going to see more targets.

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