Arian Foster, RB, HOU - Inactive

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE - Inactive

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - Inactive

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN - Active

Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET - Active

Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Active

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Denver Broncos

The Broncos had the NFL’s 2^nd worst rush defense.  They lacked playmakers in their front seven to help Elvis Dumervil disrupt opposing offenses.  They allowed an absurd 154.6 yards per game on the ground and despite breakout seasons from a variety of offensive players… the Broncos were unable to finish better than 4-12.  This staggering disappointment for a team averaging 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game on offense led to the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, who really gave this team a boost in his first couple seasons.  Unfortunately, each season ended with a meltdown and no playoff appearance, so now John Fox is going to try his hand at running this Broncos franchise. Denver held the third overall draft pick and went with the best pure-pass rusher that this draft had to offer.  Von Miller is almost a sure-fire success at the NFL level and while it is hard to criticize the pick at all, I fully expected them to take Marcell Dareus to fix their issues with the running game.  This however, is not the way John Fox operates.  When he arrived in Carolina, he drafted Julius Peppers to build his defense around.  This is the role that Miller will fill in the John Fox scheme and we should expect him to flourish.  The Broncos ended up with two 2^nd round picks as well, taking Rahim Moore (FS) and Orlando Franklin (OL).  Moore is a great player and a good value where he was selected, but I do not feel that the need in the secondary was great enough to warrant this pick.  Taking Miller in the first meant this pick needed to be spent on the defensive line and no DL was taken by Denver until round 7.  At the end of the day, the Broncos got players that will contribute, but they did a poor job of matching picks with needs.  I would not expect to see a winning football team in Denver next season, since they are still unlikely to be able to stop the run.  I would also expect to see some long-time Broncos leave the team once the lock out is lifted as the Broncos try to rebuild under their new coach.

My Grade: B-

Kansas City Chiefs

The 2010 season was a breakout year for the entire Chiefs organization.  They led the league in rushing with a two-headed attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, with Dwayne Bowe finally being a playmaker and finishing the season with 15 touchdowns (just 3 behind the league’s leader, Arian Foster).  Going into this draft, the Chiefs needed to get impact players who could make a difference immediately. They managed to do that.  They drafted Jonathan Baldwin late in the first round to be a compliment to Bowe, as he was the only viable receiving threat they had at the receiver position.  Baldwin is 6’4’’, 228 lbs. and has incredible athletic ability for someone of that size.  The biggest knock on him thus far has been consistency, but if Haley and the Chiefs were able to get Dwayne Bowe’s act together, Baldwin should be able to benefit greatly from what this organization has to teach him.  Round two led to the selection of Rodney Hudson, a strong, intense interior offensive lineman.  This is really the last drastic need on offense for the Chiefs, who are now ready to go as far as Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel can take them.  With two picks in round three, the Chiefs finally addressed the defensive side of the ball.  With the 70^th overall pick, the Chiefs took Justin Houston, a very talented pass rusher from the OLB spot.  He slid primarily due to character issues, but the third round was clearly a steal for a player with this amount of pure talent.  I am very big on this draft for the Chiefs, who stayed disciplined and followed their draft board to get the players that will help them try and repeat as division champions.

B+

Oakland Raiders

I have to keep telling myself to just grade the draft here, due to how absurd the firing of Tom Cable was to me.  Admittedly, the Raiders are a franchise that demands success immediately… but they got it.  The drafting of JaMarcus Russell turned the Raiders into a punch line for a few seasons, but without him Cable took a fairly mediocre team and swept this division with it.  Playoffs or not, this was an impressive feat and makes you almost a shoe-in for a playoff run the next season.  Cable built the team to win in the AFC West and it did, so why get rid of him?  See, here I go again… back to the draft!  In round two Oakland got themselves a tough interior lineman to open up holes between the tackles for Darren McFadden when they took Stefan Wisniewski.  In the third round Al Davis did what he does, drafted a speedster with incredible physical attributes.  Defensive back Demarcus Van Dyke was among the fastest defensive backs at the combine and surely got Al Davis’ attention there.  This pick makes sense, because of the unpredictable nature of the Nnamdi Asomugha contract and the lockout combined.  I expect Asomugha to leave the team and there to be a big hole in the Raider secondary as a result.  Hopefully Van Dyke isn’t too much of a developmental prospect, because he could be needed right away.  The Raiders did not have a round 1 pick, but even so, they did very little to help themselves immediately… apart from drafting Wisniewski.

D+

San Diego Chargers

For a team that is a contender EVERY year, sometimes missing the playoffs is a good thing.  With the 18^th overall pick, the Chargers made one of the better first round selections when they took Corey Liuget from Illinois.  He is 6’2’’ 298 lbs and is going to be an effective run-stopper in this league.  The thing that really sets him apart as an interior d-lineman is his ability to contribute on pass rushing scenarios as well.  Liuget is a factor on all 4 downs and should anchor the front seven of San Diego for years to come.  Round two saw the Chargers pick twice and to my surprise both picks were also on the defensive side of the ball.  The Chargers added Marcus Gilchrist (DB) and Jonas Mouton (LB) to the roster with expectations that each will contribute on special teams.  I think Gilchrist has a chance to make the field on defense immediately however in nickel and dime packages and potentially even at safety, should there be any injuries through the course of the season.  Mouton has exceptional speed for a man his size and should immediately see the field on kickoff and kick return teams, but with the level the Charger defense played at last season, I just can’t see him playing a significant role on the defensive side of the ball for a little while. I was surprised to see no receivers taken by San Diego this year, but I guess the Special Teams was really what doomed them and Phillip Rivers will find SOMEONE to catch passes (Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson sound good enough?).  Not a great draft in my opinion, but they didn’t need to have one, they are still Super Bowl contenders next season.

My Grade: C+

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Before it gets too far away from the end of the 2010 NFL season, we should take a look back at a few players who either exceeded expectations or didn’t come close.  These players can make or break your draft next year as their former owners clamor for a chance to own their savior from last season again, or let them fall way too deep in the draft because of bitter feelings of resentment.  In order to be a good fantasy football player you have to have a short memory, but there are always a few nuggets of information worth remembering over the long-term:

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – He was a dud this past season and it is easy to think that he is getting old and no longer a factor.  I took a look at his production and found something worth noting, take a look for yourself:

Games with Matt Moore at QB

Games without Matt Moore at QB

*Matt Moore started but was knocked out due to injury in the first half.

Moore did not make the Panthers a better team by any stretch, but he clearly had a trust and connection with the only legitimate receiving threat that Carolina had last year.  I am not saying that he has much value going into next season, but the Panthers are very likely to go with a different QB next season and I do not blame Smith for his mediocre numbers. Smith could end up a gem if he can build chemistry with whoever is at Quarterback for the Panthers, so don’t be afraid to use a mid to late round pick on him at next years draft.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – What more can you ask for from the Chief’s stud running back, who burst on the scene last year? MORE CARRIES!  I have been on record saying that Todd Haley is an idiot, but it never hurts to say it again.  Charles averaged a staggering 6.4 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was highest in the NFL for all players who saw over 100 carries on the season. Charles was also 2^nd in total yards with 1,467, not far behind Arian Foster who had 1,616.  Even more impressively, he did it on just 230 carries (Foster had 327).  Thomas Jones was the other back involved in the league’s top rushing attack and despite having just a 3.7 YPC average Jones saw 15 more carries.  This was essentially a 50/50 timeshare, but look for Charles to get better every season from here on out.  Thomas Jones is aging quickly while Charles gains experience, he will be trusted to carry the ball more often. This guy is here to stay and I do not see his production dropping off even a little next year.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I was very surprised that the Chiefs made the playoffs this season and Dwayne Bowe was a big part of their success.  He started the season pretty poorly, with 152 yards and one TD in his first four games.  In weeks 6 and 7 he went up against two of the worst secondaries in the NFL and his production spiked with 189 yards and four TDs in those two weeks.  He went on a 7 game scoring streak recording 13 touchdowns during that timeframe.  Easily lost in these impressive stats is the trouble that Bowe had against quality defensive backs; In week 13 Bowe was held without a catch against an aging Champ Bailey and in week 8 against Buffalo, he had three catches for just 16 yards (though one of them was a TD).  Lastly, the team’s passing offense disappeared when Matt Cassel missed a game against the Chargers in week 14.  I don’t blame this on Bowe but for me to take a guy as my top wide receiver, I’d like to think he could get open at least ONCE for his backup QB.  All this points to Bowe having a lot of upside for next season, but it is not without risk.  Bowe is nothing more than a WR2 until he can produce more consistently, so don’t get caught paying too high a price to have him on your team next season.

Brent Celek, TE, PHI – Celek had a breakout season in 2009 when Donovan McNabb was at Quarterback for the Eagles and appeared to be a big part of their offense last season when Kevin Kolb was running the show.  Once Michael Vick took the starting job, Celek appeared to become an afterthought.  The fact is that with a mobile quarterback like Vick, the tight end will not be used as often as with a pocket passer… especially when the offensive line struggles as it did last year. The end of the season was better for Celek, but the big issue for me will be his consistency.  There might be more 10-reception games like in week 16 on the horizon, but I am much more concerned with how many 0-2 fantasy-point outings are waiting for his fantasy owners.  I think Celek has the skill to be a top-5 TE, but the situation looks to be a frustrating one for fantasy owners and you can find a better value at the position during next year’s draft.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – There was a lot of hype going into last year’s fantasy draft season about Shonn Greene being the lead guy for the Jets.  This was not the case, LT showed that he still has what it takes to be a dynamic playmaker and was pivotal to the early success that the Jets had.  Later in the year however, LT slowed down and made less of an impact.  LT might be getting old, but he still has the ability to make an impact in a supporting role.  He was used as the lead back most of the season and because of that he wore down and was not as effective a weapon late in the year.  If Rex Ryan hopes to get the most of LT deep into the playoffs he will need to lean much more heavily on Shonn Greene, which knocks LT out of my top 30 running backs for next season.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – Britt is my biggest sleeper pick for next year’s fantasy draft.  I am by no means alone in this, but there is good reason that so many people think he is about to explode… he already did.  Last season Britt started just 7 games and still managed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  This is an average of over 110 yards and 1.2 TDs per game.  These averages are slightly inflated due to a 225 yard 3 score game in week 7, but since when do we mind letting one player put up 40+ points with their backup QB?  Right now I see Britt as a top-15 receiver, but this all depends on how the Titans go about addressing their QB situation.  The Titans also have a new head coach, Mike Munchak, who was a 9 time pro-bowl offensive lineman and is sure to favor the ground game.  This actually bodes well for Britt however, because Chris Johnson will force defenders to bring an eighth into the box to contain him and severely limit their ability to double cover Britt.  I expect the Titans to look to add a veteran QB to their roster in an effort to give them a chance to win right out of the gates and if say, Donovan McNabb landed the job… the Titans would instantly have a playoff-caliber team.  All we really need now is a new CBA so that free agency can happen…

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Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE – Inactive

Brett Favre, QB, MIN – Inactive

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Active

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Inactive

Deion Branch, WR, NE – Inactive

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Inactive

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active

Pierre Thomas, RB, NO – Inactive

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – Inactive

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Inactive

Sidney Rice, WR, MIN – Inactive

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Inactive

Todd Heap, TE, BAL – Active

Wes Welker, WR, NE – Inactive

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