Rams at Seahawks

In a week full of playoff implications and divisional rivalries, this fight over the NFC West title has the feel of a fist fight between a one armed man and a blind guy. Each team has serious issues on both sides of the ball, but are very different in a variety of ways.  Pete Carrol was brought in to coach the Seahawks and attempt to transition them from the Matt Hasselbeck era into a Super Bowl contender under a different QB.  Hasselbeck has not looked as good as he did in his prime for a couple years now and I do not expect him to suit up in 2011.  Comeback player of the year candidate Mike Williams has surpassed all expectations of his performance this season and is a part of the future of this team along with the younger receiving talent (Golden Tate and Ben Obomanu).  Many believed Charlie Whitehurst to be the heir apparent to Hasselbeck, but he has looked iffy at best in his sporadic appearances this season.  With the race for this division title being so wide-open all season, the aging and struggling Hasselbeck has been able to put the Seahawks in position to host a playoff game.  There are no players on the Seahawks worth the risk of starting in standard formats, with Williams and Marshawn Lynch being the only players worth any consideration for your flex position.

The Rams have already located their QB of the future in Sam Bradford and hope only to try and get him the experience of playing in the post season to cap off a very impressive rookie campaign.  Bradford has endured a fair amount of injuries to his receiving corp. but has been able to remain productive in spite of these changes.  If the Rams hope to win this game they must lean on their most consistent threat, Steven Jackson, who has what I consider to be a very easy match up.  Jackson is a top 10 RB every week and should be started with confidence this week as he has been a consistent statistical performer regardless of the success of the team as a whole for the past few seasons. I think the Seahawks win a close game this week due to their home field advantage in this match up. Qwest field is not a friendly environment for the Rams and their rookie QB because of it’s structural design to increase sound levels on the field.

Packers at Bears

The Bears have said that their primary goal as a team is the beat the Packers.  They have the opportunity this week to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs before they begin and I expect them to do everything in their power to do so.  The connection between Mike Martz and Jay Cutler is strong and the reason for their success this season.  They have gotten better offensive line play than I had thought was possible in the pre-season and because of this they have already clinched the division title.  Matt Forte has been a huge part of the offensive production for the Bears, he has coupled his pass catching ability with a tough and physical running style that has made him among the most complete backs in the NFL.  Despite Johnny Knox’s great performance last week, there is little reason to expect a repeat performance this week against Clay Matthews and the Packers’ formidable defense.

The Packers have endured a wide variety of injuries on both sides of the ball this season and because of it, have struggled to maintain their Super Bowl aspirations.  Their passing offense has, for some time, been the strength of this team and the combo of Rodgers and Jennings has proven to be one of the best QB-WR tandems in the league.  They lack a quality rushing attack and have since they lost Ryan Grant in week 1.  Because of this the Bears are my favorite to win this game at home and make their path to the Super Bowl a little easier because of it.   Jay Cutler remains a decent option at QB and Matt Forte is a must start, despite the quality opponent they face.

Buccaneers at Saints

Tampa Bay has been an exciting young team to watch this season.  Their core of players are all at the beginning of their careers and undrafted rookie free agent LeGarrette Blount must be considered for rookie of the year. Josh Freeman has had a break out season and is coming off a career performance last week against the Seahawks.  This week he faces a complex blitzing scheme that has hindered far more seasoned Quarterbacks and while he should be a decent QB2 starter, I would shy away from him in standard formats. Blount and rookie WR Mike Williams are still quality starters in this game as both sides still have something to play for in this game.

After defeating the Falcons at home last week, New Orleans appears to be back in Championship form heading into the playoffs.  I expect that the Saints will end up resting their starters at the end of this game, due to the (almost) guarantee that the Falcons will retain the division title by beating the Panthers at home. Pierre Thomas announced his return to prominence last week with a solid performance against the Falcons.  He did this without Chris Ivory active and taking any carries from him, but I expect Thomas to carry the load the rest of the way as he did prior to his injury.  With their ability to clinch the divisional title very unlikely… do not expect a huge game from Thomas, who just barely cracks the top 20 at RB. Even with the possibility that Brees and company do not play the entire game, any usual starters on the Saints should remain in their fantasy-owners lineups.  Look for the Saints to win this game in close fight.

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Love

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – With Garrard already listed as out on the injury report for the Jaguars, the Texans are heavy favorites to win this game.  The weakness of the Jags defense is in their secondary.  All season long I have written that the CBs of the Jags have not been able to cover opposing wide receivers with any consistency.  If the Texans have Andre Johnson back and healthy, Schaub should be in for a big game to close out the 2010 season.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – Last week the Buccaneers had a big second half on the ground against the Seahawks.  There was plenty of success to be had through the air as well, but the Rams are less likely to be as aggressive with a rookie QB on the road.  I expect St. Louis to feature SJax heavily this week and he is among the most consistent performing fantasy running backs in the NFL.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – DJax is a streaky and inconsistent player.  He has HUGE potential going into any given week, but also has a decent chance to flop and get you nothing.  To me, with a player like this (and I owned him last year on my championship team) you HAVE to start them on a weekly basis.  Trying to guess which weeks he will blow up  is a recipe for disaster. After making it through a slow outing last week, can you afford to miss out on his big game next week?

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is by far the most productive back in the league’s top ranked rushing offense.  It is a two back system where he shares work with Thomas Jones, but yet he has been a staple inside the top 10 of my RB rankings all season.  This is due to a dynamic play making ability as well as his threat to catch the ball out of the back field.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – McGee did enough at QB in relief of Jon Kitna last week to keep me confident in Miles Austin’s production.  There has been no declaration from the Eagles about how much time their starters will see but with Andy Reid hinting that he will be benching some starters, Asante Samuel is not likely to play all four quarters.  Look for Austin to put up some good numbers this week even if it is in junk time.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – With Tolbert leaving the field on an ugly injury last week, Mathews should be the feature back for the Chargers against the 31st ranked rush defense.  This past week he was able to move the ball effectively and should be a quality RB2 for you in your last fantasy match up of the 2010 season.

Hate

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – With the Chargers being knocked out of the playoff race, I have concerns that we will not see their best game this week.  Philip Rivers knows only one way to play and that is at an elite level and Ryan Mathews has something to prove.  VJax on the other hand has proven to be a bit selfish by holding out and is the one player that I fear will not give 100%.  He still ranks as a WR2, but lower your expectations.

Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Now that he is back in the lineup, he will be receiving more work with each passing week since the Colts will not trust their younger talent with the entire season on the line.  Dominic Rhodes has been picking up the slack in the mean time and you should expect him to carry the load late in the game if the Colts get ahead.  Addai may very well have a good game this week, but the threat to lose goal line carries and a good potion of the carries is too great to think of him as anything more than a mediocre flex play.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – It was nice to see this young, exciting player able to make a splash again.  It was however, not enough to trust him in your championship match up! He is the best RB in Detroit for fantasy-purposes, but still should only be used in very deep formats.

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF – With a new head coach installed for just this Week 17 match up, I would stay far away from any 49ers not named Vernon Davis.  The 9ers are not unfamiliar with changes happening in the coaching staff, but this is largely why Crabtree was not a more consistent option for his fantasy owners throughout the season.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, CIN – The Bengals offense looked very good last week, but with the Ravens as opponents in Week 17 there is little reason to expect this rookie to have a big game.  Baltimore is only allowing an average of 4.9 fantasy points per week to the opposing tight end.

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Studs

Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB – I received a couple of questions about whether Rodgers would be up to the task of facing a Giants’ defense that had knocked a number of QBs out of the game this season.  While this may have been an area for concern with a lesser player… this is the best fantasy QB in the league!  Rodgers came out of this week’s regularly-scheduled games as the highest scoring individual player and you’ll have to start him next week.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – Forte has been the primary reason for the success of the Bears’ offense.  They struggled at times mid-season but when they settled down and recommitted themselves to the running game, (at least as much as Mike Martz will EVER commit to it) the offense found a stability that has allowed them to capture the division title and remain alive in the race for the top seed in the NFC.  In recent weeks Forte has surprised me with his physical running style and despite his rough match up against the Packers next week, Forte remains a must start.

Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN – In the absence of their pro bowl talent at WR, the Bengals’ passing offense was as good as it has been all season.  Throughout the year Palmer and his dynamic duo of T.O. and Ochocinco had been able to put up decent statistical performances, but only in losses.  This week the Bengals ended the playoff hopes of one of the top defenses of this season and they did it primarily through the air.  Simpson had 124 yards and two TD’s making him the highest scoring fantasy-receiver and yet no one started him.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles has been by far the best fantasy RB who splits his carries this season.  The Chiefs have the NFL’s top ranked rushing attack and are averaging over 160 yards per game.  This week, Charles was only able to contribute 77 yards on the ground but with an additional 40 yards and 2 scores through the air, he remains a stud and a must start going into the last week of the season.

Kellen Winslow, TE, TB – It did not come as a shock to me that Winslow was so productive this week. He had by far his best statistical performance of the season with 97 yards and two TDs against a Seahawks team that is not that good!  I will keep Winslow in the top 10 at TE, but I will not expect a repeat performance as games like this don’t typically come in pairs for tight ends (unless their name is Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark!)

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF – Now that the regime of Mike Singletary has come to an end, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel for Crabtree after all.  The 49ers are said to be in the market for an elite coach to come in and take over this team and with names like Gruden, Harbaugh and Cowher being thrown around I am excited about the potential that the stars in San Francisco might have for next season.  Do not make the mistake of trusting Crabtree next week under an interim head coach.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Blount tallied over 160 yards this week in a decisive win by his young Buccaneers offense.  142 of these yards came in the 2nd half and we can only wonder what he would have done as a feature part of this week’s game plan.  His upright style of running creates some injury concerns for me, but until he does get hurt… it can’t affect his fantasy value.  Make sure you start him in at least your flex spot next week against the Saints.

Duds

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Turner has been a stud all season long.  He has been among the few backs that fantasy owners have been able to rely on weekly and this late in the season it is disappointing to see a 2 point game.  Last night was just the 2nd time that the Falcons have lost at home with Matt Ryan at QB and the Saints’ ability to shut down Turner and the running game is the primary reason why. I see this more as the Saints being back in championship form as opposed to a collapse of the Falcons. Besides, if you’re still alive in the playoffs, could you sit Turner against the Panthers!?

Wes Welker, WR, NE – The Patriot offense was in full-effect this week against the Bills, but yet the primary fantasy-players were not able to find the end zone.  Welker was only able to manage one point outside of PPR formats and was a complete non-factor in the offense following two uncharacteristic drops early on in the game.  Next week the Pats will be resting their starters to some extent and since Welker injured himself in a game late last season that had no playoff impications… expect him to be on the bench for at least the 2nd half.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Patriots secondary is young and prone to mistakes.  Recently, you would not know that by watching them play.  Fitzpatrick had a terrible outing this week as the Bills turned the ball over SEVEN times.  I don’t even trust Fitz as a QB2 next week against a much more formidable Jets defense.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – The Ravens are still one hell of a run defense, but not quite as good as they have been in the past.  Hillis had a great game earlier in the season against them and I certainly expected more than 3 points out of Hillis this week, who has surprisingly also been one of the best receiving backs in the league.  He will fall just inside my top 20 RBs for next week.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – I for one expected a much more offensive battle for last night’s NFC South rivalry game.  Colston was almost a non-factor on plays that actually happened (he caught a TD, but there was a false start penalty that should have stopped the play prior to the snap) and only finished with 2 points.  Treat this as an anomaly as you likely can’t find a better receiver to fill his spot on your roster than Drew Brees’ favorite target.

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No matter who you are, or what format league you are in… If you are still alive this week then you are playing for the championship.  Going into the last week of the season, the strategy for pick ups changes and it becomes more about screwing over your opponent than bettering your own team.  Many leagues also limit free agent additions in the post season and then you would only be able to make a move in the event of an injury on your team.  By playing with fire and placing your league’s Super Bowl in week 17 you also need to consider the fact that certain teams will be resting their starters to remain healthy for the playoffs.  The teams that we know are in this situation already are the Patriots, Jets and depending on tonights game, the Falcons.

Pickups

Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN – This is a bit mind-boggling to me, how can the Bengals play the best game of the season as soon as they are lacking their two pro bowl caliber receivers?  They faced one of the best defenses that the league has to offer and yet this unknown talent pulled off 6 catches on 7 targets for 124 yards and two TDs.  Even if Ochocinco is back for Week 17, Simpson has likely earned the right to start opposite him and Palmer will look to him for a repeat performance.

Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC – I have been calling Jennings a handcuff to Maurice Jones-Drew for a few weeks now and after a mildly disappointing performance from Rashad this week, he remains someone worth grabbing if you’re having any depth issues.  The Jaguars still have an outside chance at winning their division and making the playoffs, but they do need some help.  With that said, you can count on them fighting and clawing for the win next week against the Texans terrible defense. If MJD is out again next week, Jennings will be a top 20 guy and even better in PPR formats.

David Garrard, QB, JAC – Like I said, the Jags face the Texans!  Houston has been a mind bogglingly bad pass defense and should set the record for the worst defense EVER in respect to passing yards against. If you have been alternating Quarterbacks based off match up, then Garrard is the guy this week.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – The Texans are out of the playoff hunt and if Andre Johnson couldn’t go this week, I would be surprised to see him risk further injury in week 17. Ford topped 100 yards receiving this week and you can expect him to be heavily involved in this offense next week against Jacksonville if Andre indeed can not make the start.

Zach Miller, TE, OAK – He finally has shown enough for me to return him to my top 10 tight ends.  He had suffered a couple injuries in the middle of the season that killed his production, but with 66 yards and a TD this week, I think you can count on him next week as well.

Davone Bess, WR, MIA – Bess has been a PPR diamond in the rough this season and with a match up against the Patriots weak secondary that will likely rest their starters at the end of this game, Bess is a sneaky player to use in your flex.

Dump List

It is a little counter-productive for me to list players that are worth dropping in the last week of the season.  The reason is, ANYONE that you don’t plan to use is a viable drop.  There is no danger of facing him next week and if you are sure that your opponent wouldn’t pick him up and start him right away… go for it.

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