It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Question 1: Asked by Jon

I have Gates in one league and Zach Miller in another league.  Jacob Tamme is available in both of them as a possible fill-in for their injuries… but I really only have Ronnie Brown that I want to drop (yes, in both leagues), would you do it?

Answer

Well Jon, that is a tough call.  Tamme should not still be available after the promising performance last week but you don’t need a 2nd TE with the starters you have.  Since there hasn’t been a firm decision yet on either of the TEs, just wait it out and see if either guy starts and save the roster spot.  And don’t worry too much about missing out on Tamme, Greg Olsen is likely available as well and going against the Bills who had allowed seven TDs to the TE position in four games (excluding last week).

Question 2: Asked by littlelucky33

Schaub vs SD or Big Ben @ Cin? I shouldn’t be too worried about one bad week last week for Big Ben should I?

Answer

I wouldn’t worry about one bad game, no.  Especially when Schaub has been a disappointment for about 8 weeks so far =/.  The match-up is what breaks the tie here for me.  Statistically, the Chargers have the best defense in the NFL and that has been especially noticeable when looking at the fantasy points allowed to the QB position.  The not-so-Super Chargers have only allowed an average of 9 points per game to the other team’s signal caller and while this is partially do to an easy schedule thus far, Schaub hasn’t played his best football as of late and I would be more comfortable going with Ben against a banged up Bengals secondary.  You can see my original answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

Question 3: Asked by@RealBloomington

Pierre Garçon or Dwayne Bowe as 3rd WR???? #fantasyfootball

Answer

Well, you may have heard me talk about Bowe over the past two weeks or you may not have… but I predicted his two good games in weeks 6 and 7.  They where due to great match ups against the Texans and Jaguars who are both unspeakably bad at defending against opposing wide receivers.  Even though it is unclear how effective the Raiders pass defense would be if Nnamdi Asomugha was inactive (and it looks like he will be), Bowe proved last week that he is a risky play for fantasy owners by only amassing 16 yards against the Buffalo Bills.  Garcon is just a much safer play this week, but the decision does get tougher if we hear that Asomugha will indeed be inactive.

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Question 1: Asked by @LSUGelpi

What do you think about Roy Williams? Think he’ll continue to put up numbers like last week? I am debating between him and Hines Ward.

Answer

I think Roy has found himself a very nice spot in this Cowboys offense that might keep him on the team past this season.  He is not the dynamic play maker that they went out and signed a few years back, but finally he is showing that he can be a decent receiver.  He has earned a spot on someones roster in every league, but the Steelers receivers have been dying to get their starting QB back and with the Browns coming to town you have to go with Ward here.

Question 2: Asked by joeyb4228

Play Hillis or Britt?

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Waiver Wire Pickups

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC – The Broncos have a decent pass defense, but they should not have been good enough to shut out Mike Sims-Walker.  There were a few quiet murmurs about Thomas just before the season, but they went largely unnoticed and probably shouldn’t have.  Go get Thomas as I think before long he will prove to be the most viable and consistent fantasy option among all Jaguar receivers.

Eddie Royal, WR, DEN – I saw a lot of Jabar Gaffney questions on game day this week and while he did find the end zone, touchdowns are random.  I will take the guy with the most targets and receptions any day.  I do not think Brandon Lloyd has what it takes to be a reliable target so go get Royal now while people are focused on the other two.

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – Seems like a no-brainer for Kevin Kolb owners to go out and get Vick to play the role of handcuff while Kolb recovers from a concussion.  Often times the first concussion can be recovered from pretty quickly but I would anticipate at least one week off for Kolb. With the Lions coming up this week Vick should be capable of filling in quite well after getting over 100 yards rushing this week to compliment his 175 passing yards and a TD through the air.

Brandon Jackson, RB, GB - Grant has said that he does not plan to miss any time, but can you afford to not have him around?  The Packers are going to face a bad Bills run defense (though they played pretty well considering how abysmal their offense was) next week and they should be able to let Grant get back to 100% and still get a win.  This seems like an easy decision and so does grabbing Jackson for the easy match up just in case the Packers do the right thing.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Once Montario Hardesty got hurt, it became increasingly apparent to me that Jerome Harrison was going to be the lead back and get the vast majority of the workload.  Clearly, the Cleveland Browns are unable to commit to one single running back and this creates some value for Peyton Hillis.  Hillis had 11 fewer yards on as many carries as Jerome Harrison but found the end zone and very surprisingly was the top fantasy RB on the Browns.  I wouldn’t be in a rush to start either Harrison or Hillis quite yet till there is some idea who will be the top guy might be.

David Garrard, QB, JAC - Garrard was surprisingly efficient in the season opener and he was able to do so with a less than 100% Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield.  This is not the type of performance you should expect from Garrard, however he is the same type of backup as Vince Young, Chad Henne and Jason Campbell… he will remain a consistent fantasy producer even when the team struggles.

Mike Williams, WR, SEA – I still do not think that the Seahawks can be a playoff team.  I also still think that the 49ers will be and will win this division despite a slow start.  The woes of the Seahawks will center around the play of Matt Hasselbeck so as long as he is able lead the team on the field as well as off of it, the receivers will be relevant to us.

Dump List

Jabar Gaffney, WR, DEN – Touchdowns are pretty difficult to predict and apart from getting one this week Gaffney did very little against a pretty soft Jaguars secondary.

Rashard Jennings, RB, JAC – Jennings was drafted by some people as a handcuff when people paniced about Jones-Drew.  MJD did not have a great game in week 1 but he did enough to demonstrate his injury will not be a lasting concern.

Laurence Maroney, RB, NE - Maroney’s contract is about to expire and the Patriots have never seemed to been a big fan of his.  I do not see them trying to pick up his contract at the end of the year nor using him as much as they have in the past.  Fred Taylor is the best Patriots RB to own so don’t bother holding Maroney if Taylor is available.

Devin Hester, WR, CHI – I have seen some questions this week about Hester and he should not be on anyone’s roster unless you are in a very deep format.

Anthony Gonazlez, WR, IND – I don’t think of Collie as own-able in a 10 team league yet, but he should certainly have earned the slot receiver job after a great performance this week.  This leaves Gonzalez to 4th on the depth chart and useless to fantasy owners even if the injury was very minor.

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One hell of a kickoff game has me pretty jacked up for Sunday, I don’t know about you all.  Lots of busts from the Saints offense this week, everyone but Devery Henderson for you deep format players.  Pierre Thomas was shut down in the first half but made up for it with one hell of a 2nd half to seal a close, physical and defensive week 1 victory.  On to the questions I have answered on twitter and during Yahoo! Q&A’s.  To get your questions answered ask me on Twitter (click the bird at the top of the screen) or you can tweet with the #StartSit hashtag, I am trying to get people to start using that! So help me out.

Question 1. Asked by Butcha

#2 wr this week?
Floyd vs kc
Knox or Aromashodu vs det

Answer

This is a really difficult call here, each guy comes in close to each other on my rankings.  I would try and use both Floyd and Knox if you are able to start one in the flex position, but I do not have any RB info to confirm that.  My rankings give the edge to Floyd but I am going to say to play Knox.  He is the deep threat and the Bears are going to allow big plays against the Lions on Sunday.  Aromashodu is a big goal line threat and ought to provide you some interesting options and depth at WR this season, but he won’t be your guy this week.

Question 2. Asked by @packers4

OK …Vince Young or Jason Campbell as starting QB in #fantasyfootball?

Answer

This is a tough decision, I don’t quite rank either as a starter this week. Campbell feels low in my ranks looking back on it at 22, but regardless Vince Young will be a better choice.  The Titans will be able to control the ball and VY should be able to get you in the area of 15 points.  Without the presence of a consistent receiving threat on Oakland it is not likely that Campbell can be as productive.

Question 3. Asked by @robertodileo

Someone help!! Who should I start at flex.. Bradshaw, TJ housh, dez bryant or maclin? #fantasyfootball #StartSit

Answer

Play Bradshaw here, the Panthers are not the strongest defense by any means and the running game can’t quite match-up to the firepower of the Giants offense.  Jacobs has been reacting like a child regarding being passed up on the depth chart, but should still see some goal line work.  Bradshaw is, in my opinion, a shoe-in for a thousand yard season, with 500 receiving likely as well.

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The season is finally upon us and the Kickoff game on Thursday will be a great start, tune in.  While there are no shortage of great match ups this week I will get more into that later and go straight into the first Love and Hate lists of the 2010 season.

Love

Jerome Harrison (CLE) – Montario Hardesty’s injury increased the number of touches Harrison will see.  With a lot of carries and a bad opposing defense last season he finished the season strong enough to propel the BROWNS to a 4 game winning streak.

Ronnie Brown (MIA) – The Bills run defense was 30th in the league last year and the 4-3 is geared towards stopping the run.  The transition that Kelsay and Maybin are trying to make takes time.  There will be rough spots and while you may think Brown wont stay healthy all season… he is now.

Matt Forte (CHI) – The Lions are making strides to improve their franchise but on defense they still have plenty of work to do.  They are vulnerable to allowing big plays and this suits the Bears’ new offensive style very well.

Johnny Knox (CHI) – See Matt Forte.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – Derek Anderson brings a consistency to the offense that Leinart could not provide.  The upside is lower, because we know what Anderson can do and I do not expect him to come close to his one good year in ’07.

Michael Crabtree (SF) – He is one of the guys that I really think is going to come into his own this season.  I know some people are nervous because of the incident with Vernon Davis in camp, but I am not.  This guy is a play maker on game day. Since when does fantasy football worry too much about a wide receiver with an attitude problem?

Felix Jones (DAL) – The love for Felix Jones has gone a little too far in my opinion because there is absolutely no chance that we get 16 games out of him this season.  Swelling in his knee on the 2nd day of training camp is not what you want to see from your new lead running back.  He’s fine now and has the ability to break a big gain anytime you put the ball in his hands.

Philip Rivers (SD) – The Chiefs have weapons on offense but their defense has plenty of gaps in the secondary.  Rivers will be spreading the ball around and should be able to move the ball very effectively throughout the game.

Antonio Gates (SD) – see Philip Rivers.

Hate

Pierre Thomas (NO) – The stock on him rose w hen Ladell Betts was cut, he should see the goal line work.  Against this defense his rushing yards will be low, so unless he breaks a big gain in the receiving game his numbers will be modest at best.

Fred Jackson (BUF) – Gailey will likely lean on Lynch and Spiller a bit more this week to allow Jackson to get back to 100%, he will be fine come week 2 though.

Kevin Kolb (PHI) – If Reid is not willing to lean on the running game until Kolb gets in a rhythm this ball hawking secondary could cause some problems in Kolb’s first outing as the team’s leader.  I don’t see him having a huge game this week, I do not have too many concerns down the stretch however.

Shonn Greene (NYJ) – The Jets love to run the ball, but they won’t win this game that way.  This is going to be a slug fest and a field position battle and could be a preview of the AFC Championship game, unless Peyton Manning has his way.

Anquan Boldin (BAL) – Have you met Darrelle Revis? Nope, he used to be busy with Larry.  This is a cruel first test as a number one WR.

Justin Forsett (SEA) – Patrick Willis and the 49ers will be starting off with a win at the expense of Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle offense.

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Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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1. Nate Kaeding
2. Mason Crosby
3. Ryan Longwell
4. Garrett Hartley
5. Stephen Gostkowski
6. David Akers
7. Rob Bironas
8. Matt Prater
9. Robbie Gould
10. Lawrence Tynes
11. Jay Feely
12. Shayne Graham
13. Jeff Reed
14. Dan Carpenter
15. Matt Bryant
16. Neil Rackers
17. Rian Lindell
18. Joe Nedney
19. Olindo Mare
20. Ryan Succop

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1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jason Witten
6. Brent Celek
7. Tony Gonzalez
8. Zach Miller
9. Owen Daniels
10. Kellen Winslow
11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Dustin Keller
13. Chris Cooley
14. John Carlson
15. Anthony Fasano
16. Heath Miller
17. Kevin Boss
18. Todd Heap
19. Rob Gronkowski
20. Benjamin Watson
21. Tony Scheffler
22. Bo Scaife
23. Brandon Pettigrew
24. Jermaine Gresham
25. Fred Davis
26. Shawn Nelson
27. Marcedes Lewis
28. Brandon Pettigrew
29. Dennis Pitta
30. Jared Cook

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1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Miles Austin
5. Roddy White
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Greg Jennings
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Marques Colston
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Steve Smith (Car)
14. Mike Sims-Walker
15. Wes Welker
16. Michael Crabtree
17. Steve Smith (NYG)
18. Dwayne Bowe
19. Pierre Garcon
20. Chad Ochocinco
21. Donald Driver
22. Percy Harvin
23. Hines Ward
24. Hakeem Nicks
25. Jeremy Maclin
26. Mike Wallace
27. Santana Moss
28. Vincent Jackson
29. Malcom Floyd
30. Johnny Knox
31. Santonio Holmes
32. Devin Aromashadu
33. Kenny Britt
34. Sidney Rice
35. Bernard Berrian
36. TJ Houshmandzadeh
37. Braylon Edwards
38. Terrell Owens
39. Robert Meachem
40. Lee Evans
41. James Jones
42. Jacoby Jones
43. Dez Bryant
44. Jerricho Cotchery
45. Steve Breaston
46. Legedu Naanee
47. Derrick Mason
48. Mike Willams (TB)
49. Mohammed Massaquoi
50. Eddie Royal

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