Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton showed us all, last week, that he can still put up some BIG numbers against bad teams.  The team lost Jonathan Stewart and while fantasy owners wouldn’t believe it, it will have a negative impact on the team.  DeAngelo Williams has been the worse of the two and with him getting the lion’s share of the work, I believe the running game will suffer significantly because of it.  Expect them to ask Cam to pick up the slack around the goal line and expect him to have a nice day throwing as well.  He falls just outside my top 10 but only because Kaepernick has a little more upside to me.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – The Chiefs are pretty bad and unfortunately that can mean abandoning the run and looking to the air but Carolina is ranked 25th at defending the run and Charles is better than your average running back.  I think Crennel would like to keep his job and if that means winning more games, he just might give Charles another 30 carry game.  Don’t rely on that but if Charles starts strong, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see it.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – The way to beat the Lions is by passing.  They will be throwing a ton themselves (the leagues top passing offense), so you will have to keep up and their secondary is pretty porous.  Andrew Luck has been solid and Wayne has been great as he is on pace to beat his personal record for single season receiving yards.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t think he can hold up all the way through a playoff run, physically, and history backs me up on that.  However, the Giants need to MAKE the playoffs first and a key to that will be keeping Robert Griffen III off the field by running the ball with Bradshaw.  I don’t expect Coughlin to suddenly throw David Wilson out there more than he has to.  The Redskins defense is really bad too so i’m looking for a great performance from Bradshaw as well as the passing game.

Justin Blackmon, WR, JAC - I ranked Cecil Shorts considerably higher but Blackmon was the more surprising to me, considering that he was the second guy to make it into the top 25.  Buffalo’s defense has been pretty stout in recent weeks but that doesn’t mean that there isnt fantasy production to go around.  The weak spot, still, is the secondary and if Henne and the Jags wanna win some games, they will pass a TON this week.  Even if MJD makes it out there, you have to think it’s a limited touches scenario and the passing game will remain the feature of the offense.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – He’s started three games and even with one of them being as a tight-end, he has been the most effective receiver in every single one.  This is a really good flex-option and he is fast approaching WR 2 territory with another strong game this week.

Hate

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I didn’t know I hated Richardson till I finished my rankings and looked at what the other websites had up… TOP THREE?! Not for me.  He’s been great and I think he is one of the best RB2′s you can ask for but he’s a Cleveland Brown and that limits your upside significantly.  I would not start him over any of the elite guys just because of his nice match-up.  So, if you own Peterson, Doug Martin and CJ Spiller, which is incredibly possible, you just keep Richardson on your bench and don’t let anyone make you feel bad about it.

Danny Amendola, WR, STL – I wouldn’t blame PPR owners for playing him but even there he is a flex play at best against the incredibly stout 49er defense.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – People, hear me now and remember how right I was later… THIS IS NOT A TOP 10 RUNNING BACK.  He’s put up far too many awful performances, he plays behind an awful offensive line  and plays against the Texans this week.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE – I really thought he was going to be a flex play again for one more week but I just couldn’t do it. Not with your playoff chances on the line. Sit him down and live to fight another week.

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ – I really like Keller but he hasn’t been consistent and all I can think about is the fact that the Cardinals picked off Matt Ryan 5 times a couple weeks ago and now they play Sanchez.

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The New York Giants have the second easiest schedule for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs for the playoffs.

Ahmad Bradshaw is 15th in the NFL in points scored among running backs.

Andre Brown has been the goal line back since he played relief-duty for Bradshaw earlier in the season.

Brown is now on IR and Bradshaw will be getting those goal line touches.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has just 2 100 yard games and 5 TDs on the entire season.

2 of those 100 yard games have come in the last two weeks.

In each of those games he also scored once.

The emergence of Andy Dalton and the passing game has helped bring the 8th man out of the box and into pass coverage.

Cincinnati has an incredibly tough schedule for fantasy points allowed during the playoffs.

The Law Firm is going to sit at around 18 or so in my rankings headed into the playoffs.

Denarius Moore had at least 4 catches in every game between weeks 3 and 10.

Moore has just 2 catches in as many games.

Oakland has the 5th hardest schedule for fantasy production at the wide receiver position.

Moore is not going to be anything more than a bad flex play headed into the playoffs.

Josh Gordon is a big-play threat.

Gordon has not scored a TD in 5 weeks, which includes a bye week.

Brandon Weeden has a good chance to make it back to action in time for next week’s game.

The next three match-ups for Cleveland are Oakland, Kansas City and Washington.

Gordon is a poor flex option in a standard 10 team league.

Brandon Lloyd has just 1 game with more than 5 receptions since week 3.

Lloyd has just 3 TDs on the season.

Brandon Lloyd is only even a consideration at the flex position for one more week, while we see what happens with Gronkowski out.

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Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Active

Dez Bryant, WR, DET – Active

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Active

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – Inactive

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – Active

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – Active

Jimmy Graham, TE, NO - Inactive

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Studs

Marques Colston, WR, NO – So typically Colston is a very hit or miss player but with two simply great performances in a row, fantasy owners might just be falling in love… Don’t. This is what he has done for years, he WILL finish the season as a top 15 or so WR every year and it will be because of a few really big games and a whole slew of mediocre or worse ones.  Despite that, I enjoy drafting Colston because if he often slips far down and if he gets a couple of these games in a row, someone will be willing to pick him up in a trade. Try and sell high if you can but do not expect Colston to be turning into a new #1 WR.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – Indianapolis Colts fans should be almost as excited as dynasty league fantasy-owners of Andrew Luck as he won a really big statement making game against the Packers this week. Watch the game if you can, it was an incredible drive where Luck continued to find Reggie Wayne despite all 11 defenders being fully aware that he was the target the entire time.  Luck is climbing the ranks of #2 QBs at the moment but I would still be surprised to see him crack the top 10 at all.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – 30 carries and 200 yards is exactly what you want to see if you have an irrational fear of odd numbers.  Really a very impressive outing from a guy that we thought would be sharing the load with Andre Brown.  I’m not dropping Brown yet however because Bradshaw isn’t known for durability and the Giants would be smart to let Brown keep him healthy a bit more than was the plan this week. Bradshaw will be ranked somewhere around the 10-15 range I am thinking right now.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – What a phenomenal game here from Wayne. I mentioned him above so I’ll just throw the numbers at you. 20 targets, 13 receptions, 212 yards and a score. He was super human and he is not going to stop any time soon.  He has a slew of awesome match ups until week 15 against the Texans seems likely to dampen his numbers.  Kudos to you for this draft day steal, might be the biggest one of the year.

Alex Smith, QB, SF – Yes, I am bitter about it but I almost didn’t put Smith in the list as his numbers were more a by-product of abysmal coverage by my Bills on Sunday than anything else. That isn’t really fair because they registered for fantasy owners all the same. You wish you had Alex Smith to back up Matthew Stafford this week because 28 points is always a welcome sight from your back up QB. Don’t overreact though because sadly, my Bills’ secondary IS that bad.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – So you will always have this lingering thought in your head whispering “committee back” but the numbers are there. Another big week with 28 carries 151 yards and a TD. I can’t imagine a scenario where your team is so good that you aren’t starting this guy.  I don’t think he is a sell high unless someone is absolutely in love with him and thinks he’s a top 5 guy but he is an ideal #2 RB at the moment.

Duds

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – He has elite-level upside but he isn’t showing me the consistency to think that he will always be a top 10 guy.  It’ll take an especially tough match-up to drop him that low but you have to be worried and you HAVE to have another option at your disposal at this point.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – The Bills absolutely sucked. The offense was completely inept and while no one was surprised that they got smothered by the 49ers defense, I ranked Johnson well on an expectation of junk-time.  Boy was there a TON of junk time.  San Francisco pulled their starters with like 9 minutes left and yet still… three points. Disappointing. Johnson might just prove to be a frustrating player the rest of the way as he almost alternates between good and bad match ups. I think the Bills will beat the really bad teams but continue to struggle against talented ones.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – I never am happy to see a guy get injured but law firm owners are lucky that Bernard Scott got hurt in this game because the Bengals had Scott in the game for the entire second series so indications were that a time share was incoming for the Bengals offense. I guess it’s back to the original high volume plan for Green-Ellis.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I say it a ton but honestly, can you really count on this guy ever again? Completely random good weeks don’t help anyone. The fact that he did well against Houston of all teams makes this all the more frustrating. Don’t own him anymore.  Someone will pick him up and he WILL be a blight on their roster.

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – There is no secondary elite tier anymore. Gates used to be the only one there and I’m over that. Wake me up when he gets double digit points.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – Bye weeks are the ONLY reason that he will likely remain inside or around the top 20-25. Hugely disappointing year in my opinion so far.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – I haven’t seen this game yet but I don’t have to in order to understand that fantasy owners aren’t going to like one point. The stats tell me that New York’s defense is still at least average in the passing game and Schaub wasn’t at his best. This will happen on such a run-focused team but you still gotta start this guy.

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Question 1. Asked by @2RudeRogers

Thinking about benching DeSean Jackson for Ramses Barden… Thoughts? #fantasyfootball

Answer

I hate to say it but that’s just crazy talk.  Bradshaw is back so Ramses is now at best the 4th target on this passing game behind Cruz, Bennett and Bradshaw.  He also carries zero value when Nicks is in the line up.  The news that Nicks is doubtful means that Nicks’ owners should scoop him up but I still think your only using him when Nicks is a game-time decision and ends up being inactive. He would have to really prove to me he can be productive with Cruz and Nicks on the field before I considered him roster-able for non-Nicks owners. I don’t think there is much of any chance he is better than Manningham was this season and he only ever was a poor flex play.  Jackson certainly has a good chance at being a low-scorer and maybe Barden DOES out score him but it’s still a bad bet and I’d be worried that Jackson blows up the one week I don’t play him. That’s kind of the price you pay for drafting a big play receiver, you’ve gotta start him every week.

Question 2. Asked by @plamorte

If Nicks and Garcon sit I have to pick 2 from Hankerson, Wright and Simpson.

Answer

I would rather play Barden than Hankerson to sub for Nicks because you can make up your mind when you have the status of Nicks. So go scoop him up if you can and drop Wright for him.  Now that Britt is coming back, even though this week is in doubt, Wright’s value is dropping fast.  I certainly have zero confidence in him this week on the road against the Texans.  I am admittedly not a Hankerson fan either (I like Aldrick Robinson more than Hankerson) but I am a HUGE fan of the match-up against the Buccaneers who are the NFL’s worst pass defense thus far. It also helps that since the Skins are the 2nd worst pass defense as this could really devolve into a shoot out.

Question 3. Asked by @AOrton10

Do I start Jamaal Charles against the Chargers or LeSean McCoy against the Giants? #fantasyfootball

Answer

So it’s close but these are two clear-cut must start players. I have to say McCoy, with Vick struggling, the offense is all about McCoy and he is a LOT less risky.  I am really concerned that it will be near impossible for you to  pick the right guy every week.  I am VERY curious who the other RB is that your playing and I am assuming there isn’t a flex spot open for Charles to play in?  Assuming the other RB is a better option and there is no flex spot, you should trade one of these two guys to pick up a must-start, elite player at a different position.

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Question 1. Asked by @bereninga

@BigJim_SFL I have V. Jackson, A. Brown, V. Cruz and Steve Johnson. I can play 3. Who can I depend on?

Answer

I say you sit VJax this week.  He’s VERY hit or miss and just too risky for me to play over such solid guys. To be fair he is a very viable option given that he has a significant chance to be the highest scoring of the bunch but I think he is also by far the most likely to have 0 points on Monday too.   Cruz and Brown seem to be a tier above the rest so let’s talk Stevie Johnson here.  Johnson got it done last week for fantasy owners despite a terrible game for the Bills as a whole.  Yes, it was junk-time but he was also facing a considerably better defense than the Chiefs have for his week 2 match-up.

Question 2. Asked by Jersey Mike Jr. @ThaSPORTSKRIB

Who is my best option for my flex out of Shonn Greene vs. PIT, Alfred Morris vs STL, Coby Fleener or Jeremy Kerley?

Answer

Well, I’m drinking the Alfred Morris kool-aid this week. I put some good stats in my love/hate list post for this week as for why.  I awknowledge that he is a significant risk but I think the signs are there to make it worth it. Greene has a BEAR of a match-up and so does Kerley.  Also with Kerley, I fear that Sanchez is every bit as bad as I think he is and won’t be able to maintain half of last week’s production down the line.  Fleener isn’t really in the running here in my opinion but my answer is Morris.  For what it’s worth, Greene if you disagree that Morris is THE GUY in Washington.

Question 3. Asked by @MFarrell21

@BigJim_SFL pick two of the three.  Bradshaw, Sproles, Donald Brown.

Answer

I think Donald Brown was a great draft day value this year but that’s because he went REALLY late for a starter and lead-back. He just hasn’t been overly productive with his carries but he DOES get plenty.  I think Brown is a value because he’s a guy that you can rely on in a pinch and simply put, you aren’t in a pinch.  The other guys are just safer AND have a higher upside.

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Studs

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – There is certainly no better place to start than the guy who ended my season and the season of many others.  MJD went absolutely crazy this week against the Buccaneers and totalled FOUR TDs on 136 all-purpose yards.  He was the highest scoring player from week 14 and if he can carry the Jaguars’ offense, he can carry your fantasy team too.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Yes, Dallas lost the game.  Tony Romo still had a big statistical performance for fantasy owners after starting RB DeMarco Murray went down early in the game.  Felix Jones filled in well against a soft rush defense but it was Romo’s 321 yards and 4 TDs that really kept Dallas in this game and it took some late heroics from Eli to take this game from Dallas.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Assuming you didn’t reach for him as your RB1 at draft time, you may have gotten by and into the playoffs with Green as your RB2. Good for you if you did because now that he is on fire late in the year, he is fast becoming one of the best second RBs that you could ask for. And you have to love a player that is at his best when it matters most for you.

Julio Jones, WR, ATL – These big-play guys can be frustrating but you have to start them when they have a soft match up.  And if you did this week with Jones, it paid off in a big way.  He only managed 3 catches but they totaled 104 yards and two scores.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – The only thing crazier than how unbelievably good Gronkowski has been this season is how early he will be taken in fantasy drafts next year.  He has already set the single-season TD record which was previously 13 for tight ends.  His current tally is 15 and counting with 3 games remaining. I heard an interesting fact on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus Podcast this week; If you took away all the TDs from Gronkowski and let all the other players keep theirs, he would still be the 4th highest scoring TE in the NFL for fantasy.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – The Saints offense did not look like it has in recent weeks.  They don’t play near as well outside and the Titans secondary did a great job of bottling up the receivers of New Orleans until the 4th quarter.  When it mattered most, to win the game, Brees found Colston twice on scoring plays and managed to squeak out a win.

Duds

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – The Lions passing game was working pretty well with a soft match up this week and yet Calvin Johnson only had 29 receiving yards and 11 rushing.  Three fantasy points is not enough from the top receiver in the NFL for fantasy football and it hurt a lot of people in a bad way. You have to keep starting him but I don’t expect teams to stop double covering him anytime soon.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – Zilch. Zippo. Nadda.  This is exactly how many points and catches Finley had this week.  Just one target too, that is what legitimately scares me. I expected more from Finley this year but his targets have been low and aren’t getting any better.  He is not a top 5 option like he was drafted as.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Hey, Bradshaw… how about you show up to team meetings…  He was benched for the first half of the game and wasn’t that productive in the 2nd half. Brandon Jacobs ran well in his place but there wasn’t much warning about this and it destroyed a lot of match ups this week.

Greg Jennings, WR, GB – This isn’t the first time Jennings’ numbers have been low but it is the first time that the entire Packers passing game had a mediocre day.  That’s what happens when the running game gets the job done for a change. Don’t be too worried about it if you made it through but you could easily have been eliminated by Jennings’ poor performance.

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