It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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Tight end is a very deep position this year.  There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10.  The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL.  The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft.  More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses.  Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent.  Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone.  When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.

The Top Two

Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own.  No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack.  When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR.  With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates.  Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.

The Next Three

Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys.  Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates.  In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense.  The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover.  Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again.  Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.

The Last of The Starters

Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends.  These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB.  Brent Celek falls under the new QB category.  There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not.  It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other.  Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year.  Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self.  The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.

The Best of The Rest

Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year.  Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe.  Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball.  Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano

Busts

Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap

Recap

If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it!  You will be getting to start an extra WR every week.  If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft.  The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.  Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.

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This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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