With only one spot up for grabs in the NFC playoff picture and 2 spots open in the AFC, there are a lot of teams with little to play for and this week is a bit of a mess.  This is exactly why leagues should all be finishing on week 16.  You should talk to the commissioner about next season if it is not.

Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – They have been out of the playoff race for a long time so it’s not like the motivation is gone for Newton, who wants to continue to expand on the records he has already eclipsed in this incredible rookie season. New Orleans’ defense thrives on generating pressure, which is hard to do when the QB can just take off running.  Newton will be able to score points against this defense and maybe even a win if Brees and the rest of the Saints’ starters take some of the game off.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – When the game is on the line, Eli is going to look towards Nicks.  Victor Cruz might be the new talent but this game is no joke; win the game and win the division. Dallas’ secondary is not going to contain these two and it will be up to Romo to outscore Eli. Both Giants receivers are good starts this week.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – People were quick to call Spiller a bust as he sat behind Fred Jackson but ever since he has taken over for Freddie, he has improved on a weekly basis. Statistically and fundamentally, Spiller has made progress with each passing game.  He is learning to hit the pocket quickly and get up field and his ability to be an impact in the passing game makes him a very versatile threat.  Buffalo has a tough choice going into next season about who to start but fantasy owners do not, Spiller has to be out there.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson faces the league’s worst pass defense and is playing what is potentially his last game as a Buffalo Bill.  He would like to impress as he heads into an off season where he is a free agent to help drive up the size of his next contract, with whichever team that may be.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – After being dead wrong about how Lynch would perform against by far the best rush defense in the league last week, there is zero chance that I would make the same mistake twice.  Consistency has always been the downside with Lynch.  He has however been consistently phenomenal the 2nd half of the year and is very likely to go as a top 10 RB in next season’s draft.

Hate

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben is likely to take it easy this week, should he play. He faces a Browns defense that is stout against the pass and weak to the run.  Expect a heavy dose of the ground game and less of an emphasis on the aerial assault.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – I think the Buccaneers will still look to Blount first but they showed last week that he is on a short leash and you should expect them to yank him out of the game if he has any more fumbling problems.  He is just too risky for a start this week in my opinion.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Even if he comes back, he isn’t an auto-start.  The Texans aren’t likely to push him back and I expect him to see limited snaps.  He is a flex play at best on talent alone.  There still aren’t many red zone targets in the league and I would think that is where they would hope to use him the most.

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Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

Who do u think I should start at RB out of… Foster, MJD, Murray and Sproles? I need 3 of 4.

Answer

I am sitting Sproles here if I was you. Keep your expectations low on Foster this week but Sproles is the only guy that I wouldn’t call a “stud”.  These should be your three regardless of match-up.  New Orleans is pass-first and Sproles’ touches are limited. He has been a great weapon for them and I am sure they will continue to use him a fair amount but the other options are all feature backs in their offense.

Question 2: Asked by @bdavis712 and Eric via email.

Should I start Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson or Andre Johnson?

Answer

This is a really, really difficult decision you have this week.  I have Cruz 10th and Nelson 11th in my rankings and you are going to have to trust your gut.  The reason why I would go with Cruz is simple, the stats.  Green Bay is currently ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense and this is due in large part to what fantasy owners call “junk-time”.  Basically, after Green Bay has the game wrapped up and out of reach, the opponent just keeps throwing the ball on every play and the Packers sit in prevent defense and essentially allow a lot of yardage.  The secondary is definitely weaker than it has been in years past but not quite as bad as 31st. The nice thing is, junk-time counts just as much as anything else and even if Cruz has no catches going into the 4th quarter, there is no way he finishes the game that way.  Green Bay on the other hand will likely have the game locked-up and be running out the clock by the end of the game.  This limits Nelson’s chances and makes Cruz a slightly better play in my opinion.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

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Love

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – You are right to be concerned about how Johnson will play with Leinart at QB. The only thing is that Jacksonville has a very tough time stopping elite receivers.  Leinart was at one time a starting QB in this league and he is used to having that elite receiver that you can just toss the ball up to.  I expect a very nice game from Johnson this week.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – He had an off game last week and still managed double digit fantasy points.  Miami is on playing really well at the moment but Dallas is too.  As long as Romo doesn’t give the game away with interceptions, I think that Dallas wins this one with relative ease and Murray is the guy that closes it out in the end.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – I usually have Cam at #2 in my rankings and he is there now.  I would have him at number one but I have seen Aaron Rodgers play this season and that would be insanity.  This match up for Newton is fantastic and I think he has an honest shot at being the week’s top scorer.  You probably don’t need any convincing to start him but I am expecting a huge game this week from the soon to be rookie of the year.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – Nelson has been great this season.  He is a big play guy that is able to make that big play with staggering consistency.  I am not ready to rank him above Jennings yet but the fact that I had to think about it is a credit to Nelson’s ability.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Brown has taken over as the lead back in this offense and while they have been inept this year, Carolina’s defense just may be worse. If your struggling to find a replacement for Fred Jackson, you can do worse than Brown this week.

Hate

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – I ranked Smith poorly this week and partially because I also ranked Jahvid Best. But even if Best does not play, I still would have a hard time starting Smith for this game.  The Lions are at home against the Packers and regardless of how well Detroit has been playing this season I think it would be a huge surprise if they were able to take down the Packers. I expect the Lions to be forced to go to the air early and often in an effort to keep up.  Smith is still a relatively decent flex play because of his ability to catch balls out of the backfield but don’t let that big game cause you to make a foolish decision this week.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – The downfall of the Bills has been especially rough on Johnson’s fantasy owners.  He is no longer to be considered a WR2 and is a flex play at best. You should look for another option, especially on Revis island this week.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – Bradford has been bad this year for fantasy owners. He has an awesome match-up this week but don’t be tempted to use him.  The only guy involved in the Rams’ passing game that I trust is Brandon Lloyd.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Normally a running back going against Buffalo ends up on the other list.  But with how well Joe McKnight played after Greene went down last week, I am concerned that there is a time-share about to happen.  Greene is still my favorite to get the lion’s share of the work and remains a low-end RB2 in my ranks.

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Question 1: Asked by Zach

Hey so with Schuab being out the rest of the season (most likely) how do you think this affects Andre Johnson?  I Remember Fitzgerald delt with a bad QB and went from a #1 WR to a #2 WR last season… of course they did not have a huge running game like Houston but still, should I worry at all about AJ going forward?  I am in a PPR league.

Answer

You certainly should be worried but I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. You mentioned how Fitzgerald slid last season and I think that is the worst case scenario.  On pure talent alone I do not see him dropping below WR 2 status, no matter how poorly Matt Leinart plays. The two-headed attack of Foster and Tate will clearly be the primary focus of opposing defenses and this should lead to a few deep passes throughout the game.  There really isn’t anyone else with the deep threat capability of Johnson on the Texans roster, so he should be good for a decent yardage total and a score in most every game the rest of the way.

Question 2: Asked by @UofMnumber1Fan

Brandon Marshall or Denarius Moore at WR2?

Answer

I write a lot of cautions against the Raiders’ receivers ever since I started this site and while Moore has admittedly looked really good this season and even with Palmer, I don’t think you can afford to bench Marshall here.  He has been targeted a lot recently and has really started to develop a chemistry with Matt Moore. Last season I wrote about how Matt Moore was able to make Steve Smith a viable fantasy option in Carolina because even though he is NOT a very good QB, he trusts in his top guy and gives him an opportunity to make plays.  The Bills secondary has allowed a lot of yardage all season and with Reggie Bush providing a rushing threat that is worth paying attention to, Marshall will have his chance to make a big play this week.

Question 3: Asked by @Shaban09

Let’s say vick’s out. Do I go with Bradford or V. Young?

Answer

With how mediocre Bradford’s play has been this season I have to say you should play Young.  Philly’s offense is VERY QB friendly and if you remember the recent past, Kevin Kolb was always able to put up good fantasy production as a fill-in. The Eagles just pass so much that the numbers are bound to show up by the end of the game and the Eagles will be able to keep a very similar playbook to what it is when Vick is out there.  In standard leagues, I don’t think Bradford is an own-able QB.

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