Week 3 Preview: Key Matchups and Their Fantasy Relevance
Texans at Saints
There aren’t too many better places for the Texans to make a statement to the NFL than the Super Dome. Houston is 2-0 and quickly became the favorites to win the division when David Garrard was released from Jacksonville and Peyton Manning went under the knife before Week 1. Houston is dying for a playoff birth and a big road win against Drew Brees and the Saints would really speak volumes about their chances in the post season. Houston still needs to show me that their secondary can play far better than their embarrassing performance last season and keeping Drew Brees at bay is just the task that I want to see them face in order to convince me. They have certainly showed signs of improvement this season and currently sit at #1 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, but I do think that Brees and the Saints will prove to be too tall of a task for Wade Phillips’ defense and I actually thing both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are quality plays this week with Colston still injured. Ingram remains a bit of a stretch to start as he is still carving out his niche in this offense and Sproles has earned a fair share of playing time with his ability to make plays over the first two weeks. I do not think that Arian Foster is a sure-fire #1 back if he plays because after he had to come out in week 2, I expect the Texans to bring him back slowly. Schaub should do fine facing a very good defense with a very disruptive pass rush now that Owen Daniels seems to be rebounding to the reliable target that he was two years ago and despite Andre Johnson finally not being my top ranked receiver, but obviously he remains a must start and only fell to 3rd.
Packers at Bears
A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game headlines the 4 o’clock games this weekend and it has a lot of meaning for both teams. The Bears are the defending division champs and the Packers are the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bears are trying to establish themselves as a Super Bowl contender and beating Green Bay has been an issue for them recently and means a whole lot to Bears fans. I think that a Mike Martz offense has a serious chance to exploit this Green Bay secondary that has allowed back to back 400 yard passing games, one of which was by Cam Newton in his 2nd start ever. The Bears defense has been playing well so far and should be able to contain the Packers offense enough to give the offense a chance. I actually like the home team to win in an upset here. Matt Forte produces more in the passing game than on the ground and as long as he keeps up this level on consistency, I don’t care how he does it. Forte is fast becoming a top 10 fantasy running back because of his receiving ability like we haven’t seen since Brian Westbrook and is a must-start regardless of match-up until further notice. Johnny Knox remains the top receiving threat for fantasy owners on the Bears because of his speed and big-play ability, but he is a flex play at best. Cutler is a good option this week in my opinion as there is a lot of tape of how to put up big numbers against the Packers in the air from the past two weeks and I really liked what I saw in the home opener against the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. There is no way the Packers go down without a fight and while I heavily downgraded the running backs for this week, you are starting Rodgers, Finley and Jennings no matter what happens and I can’t really argue with Jordy Nelson in the flex either if your in a deep format or short on receivers.
Patriots at Bills
I wasn’t going to take advantage of the opportunity to talk about my home town team, but the game really does just jump out at more than the rest of the games. If you had to guess who the top scoring offense in the NFL was who would yo say? Patriots right? They aren’t even the top scoring offense in their division with Buffalo having 79, Detroit having 75 and the Pats sit in 3rd with 73. It seems pretty obvious to me that the bubble is going to burst this week as the Patriots are a machine and the Bills are just not equipped to put up the number of points that are likely to be necessary to continue to out score Tom Brady. Buffalo fans are DYING to finally get a win over the Patriots (believe me) since the last time it happened was EIGHT YEARS AGO when they won 31-0 and came out to a blazing 5-1 start only to miss the playoffs. I still have trouble seeing Buffalo doing much more than 7-9 and scaring some wild card teams late in the season. One thing is apparent however, they may have found themselves a QB after all. People were scratching their heads when Buffalo left the draft and then free agency without a new QB prospect and GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey continued to reaffirm their confidence in the Amish Rifle (that’s Ryan Fitzpatrick if you didn’t guess by looking at his beard). I am a lifelong Bills fan and I can’t honestly say that I ever considered Fitz to be a potential QB of the future, but this blazing fast start has me excited to see what he can do. The Bills’ best hope for a huge upset is Fred Jackson. He has led Buffalo top ranked rushing attack to an average of 193 yards over the first two games of the season. If they can control the clock, keep Brady off the field and force a pair of timely turnovers, they just might do the unthinkable. The probable scenario is that they find themselves playing from behind early, need to abandon the running game and they can’t win a blow for blow shootout with Tom Brady. I am starting all the usual suspects with reasonably high expectations for a high scoring game. The loss of Aaron Hernandez will mean an increase in targets for Gronkowski and Welker and I don’t have too high of expectations for the Law Firm or Woodhead because the Bills’ defensive front seven is vastly improved over what it was a season ago.
