Starting Fantasy Lineup
Sep
02
2010

2010 Draft Analysis by Position: Tight End

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Tight end is a very deep position this year.  There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10.  The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL.  The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft.  More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses.  Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent.  Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone.  When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.

The Top Two

Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own.  No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack.  When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR.  With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates.  Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.

The Next Three

Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys.  Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates.  In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense.  The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover.  Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again.  Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.

The Last of The Starters

Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends.  These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB.  Brent Celek falls under the new QB category.  There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not.  It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other.  Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year.  Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self.  The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.

The Best of The Rest

Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams.  Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year.  Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe.  Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball.  Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.

Sleepers

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano

Busts

Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap

Recap

If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it!  You will be getting to start an extra WR every week.  If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft.  The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion.  Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.

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Aug
25
2010

NFL 2010 Preseason In Review: Week 2

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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