Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  The Eagles are my and most people’s favorites to win the NFC in 2011.  This is largely due to the ABSURD amount of talent added in free agency over the past week, which includes Ronnie Brown, Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC), Nnamdi Asomugha and Jason Babin.  Jenkins is a wall of a defensive tackle with a particular talent for getting his hands up into the passing lanes and batting down short passes (he holds the Green Bay Franchise record for this statistic in a single season by a D-lineman with 9 in the 2007 season). Rodgers-Cromartie is a very solid Cornerback that has been getting better each year since drafted 16^th overall in 2008.  He has made a name for himself by coming up with big plays in crucial situations, namely a 99 yard INT return for a touchdown against the Rams in his rookie season which secured the division title for the Cards. Jason Babin was also brought back to Philly this offseason through free agency off the heels of a 12.5 sack season in 2010. The least attractive addition to the roster for the Eagles is the most recent, Ronnie Brown.  Don’t get me wrong, Brown makes the team better and will probably handle short yardage and goal line touches.  But, with all the blockbuster players picked up on defense, its easy to barely acknowledge this one. Lastly, the biggest surprise acquisition for Andy Reid’s ball club was Nnamdi Asomugha.  Asomugha is in most people’s eyes the 2^nd best cornerback in the entire league.  With three cornerbacks that are talented enough to be the top guy on any team in the league and a formidable pass rush the Eagles defense is, on paper, the best in the NFL for the upcoming 2011 season.  It is difficult to see what could stand in the way of this team’s success apart from a slew of injuries.

Kenny Britt

If we set aside all the off-field issues and pretend that Britt would play in all 16 games, I would have him as a top 15 wide receiver this season.  Now he will be facing some disciplinary actions and I expect him to see a four game suspension and have it reduced down to two.  He was not likely to crack my top 20 at WR given Jake Locker looked to be the starting QB for this seasuon but now that Matthew Hasselbeck is in Tennessee, Britt has a QB that can accurately and reliably hit an open receiver.  Last season, when Britt was on the field, he looked like a man among boys in what was otherwise a very pedestrian passing attack. Britt got hurt in week 8 and did not return until week 14, but despite missing all this time to injury, he still amassed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  Most impressive to me was how much more successful the Titans were with him on the field.  The first 7 games of the season were all played with Britt in the lineup and the Titans were sitting at 5-2.  Starting the week that Britt got hurt, the Titans slid on a 6 game losing streak.  This was more to do with poor QB play from Rusty Smith and Kerry Collins, but Britt is by far the best receiving threat the Titans have on their roster and defenses are forced to keep 8 in the box in an effort to contain Chris Johnson.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cards were in a tough spot this offseason.  They wanted to do everything they could to make Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that he would not leave the team after the 2011 season.  In order to do that, they needed to get him a QB.  The draft did not provide this for them, but a trade with Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb did.  He cost them Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2^nd round pick, but you don’t often get a potential franchise QB cheap, so it was worth the risk.  DRC was expendable after the drafting of Patrick Peterson and in the sub-par NFC West; the Cards are playoff contenders again.

Donovan McNabb

I don’t think the Vikings are going to be in the running for the division title, but with Adrian Peterson carrying the load and a solid defense to keep the offense on the field, McNabb is able to prove that he was not the problem in Washington last season.  Losing Sidney Rice hurts but with Roy Williams, Johnny Knox and Devin Hester at receiver, McNabb has a better receiving corp than many of his pro bowl seasons in Philly.  Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect McNabb to be more than a QB2, but Vikings fans can be happy to have someone who can potentially take them back to the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

If you are familiar with me, you know I am a big Bills fan.  I might be just excited for my team here, but Buffalo made two very nice acquisitions this week in Free Agency. Unfortunately, Buffalo lost Paul Posluszny early in the Free Agency period to Jacksonville, but Pos is a better 4-3 middle linebacker than he is ILB in the 3-4 and since the Bills are still adjusting their personnel to suit the new scheme, this won’t likely hurt too bad.  Especially after drafting Kelvin Sheppard and signing Nick Barnett, they should be okay at ILB.  The Bills are also set up to take serious advantage of the new 3^rd-QB rule, or lack there-of.  Buffalo took an explosive playmaker from their division-rival New York Jets when they signed Brad Smith.  Smith can now be placed at the 46^th roster spot (3rd QB) and take snaps from under center.  Previously, using your 3^rd QB before the 4^th quarter meant that your 1^st and 2^nd string QB’s could not re-enter the game.  Buffalo needs excitement brought back to their football team badly and even the idea of CJ Spiller and Brad Smith in a Wildcat formation is pretty darn exciting.  I expect Buffalo to remain a losing football team next season, especially since they are still in the AFC East, but look for a lot more big plays and fantasy points in 2011.

Tavaris Jackson

After Hasselbeck left town for Tennessee, Tavaris Jackson signed a deal to reunite him with his old offensive coordinator in Seattle.  There will be some competition between Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst, but my guess is that his understanding of the offense and his relationship with fellow former Viking and newly acquired Seahawk Sidney Rice makes Jackson the heavy favorite to win the starting job.  Throw in the addition of Zach Miller to the receiving corp for good measure and now Seattle might actually have an offense.  Jackson has a lot of talent and play-making ability so if he was able to work on his down field accuracy and pocket-presence, he may be able to resurrect his career with this opportunity.  In my eyes, it comes down to how consistent Marshawn Lynch can be to take the pressure off the passing game.

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The NFL draft is coming up quickly now and its time I release my first mock draft of the year.  I have spent a lot more time agonizing about how the top 10 picks will go, since my Bills hold the number 3 pick overall and I truly think (unless free agency gets started after the April 6^th court date) I have a pretty decent grasp as to how it will go:

Blaine Gabbert, 1^st overall pick, Carolina - It is time to tear it all down and rebuild in Carolina.  Their new coach, Ron Rivera, has just left an offense with Phillip Rivers and I don’t think he has any interest in trying to further develop Jimmy Clausen.  Cam Newton has been talked about as having the talent to go here, but there is too much to risk with the number 1 pick and Gabbert is the safest QB on the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers take Patrick Peterson with this pick either, but their biggest need (QB) would still need to be addressed and when you have the top pick, it becomes very difficult to pass on someone as well-rounded as Gabbert.

Marcell Dareus, 2^nd overall pick, Denver – The Broncos rush defense has been a mess for the past few seasons.  They still have a pretty good secondary, but have fallen short of the playoffs due to abysmal d-line play for two seasons now.  Marcell Dareus is a beast of a DT and can play in just about any technique the Broncos could dream to use him in.  When looking at tape on Dareus, I can’t help but be reminded of Warren Sapp.  To me, Dareus is the best prospect available in the draft and considering DT is hands down the biggest need for the Broncos, I just don’t see him going anywhere else.

Cam Newton, 3^rd overall pick, Buffalo – As a native to Buffalo and a die-hard Bills fan, believe me when I say that the Bills need to find a way to excite their fan base.  The search for Dick Jauron’s replacement was cut short when GM Buddy Nix and owner Ralph Wilson found Chan Gailey.  Time has shown to me that this was the correct move, but at the time it was a bit of a let-down to not see Buffalo make a serious bid for a headline coach.  Now that Gailey is running the show, I expect him to get his QB with the number 3 pick due to the immense upside that comes with Newton. Gailey used to coach Kordell “Slash” Stewart in Pittsburgh and is widely known for building a scheme around the talents of his QB.  While I am not convinced that Cam is destined for greatness, there are few Coaches out there better suited to maximize his potential.  QB is not the only need Buffalo has, but with no sure-fire left tackle at the top of the draft, Chan will take his franchise QB while he still has time to develop him left on his contract.

Robert Quinn, 4^th overall pick, Cincinnati – Despite the uncertainty at QB and WR for the Bengals, they are about to embrace their identity as a run-first offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals could use some help rushing the passer.  With medical issues still encircling Da’Quan Bowers, the Bengals will take a compliment to Carlos Dunlap and solidify both DE spots with Robert Quinn from UNC.  This could change easily if Dareus, Gabbert or Newton are still on the board… but as I see things, the Bengals will not have a crack at those three guys and they don’t have much need for Vonn Miller or Patrick Peterson.

Vonn Miller, 5^th overall pick, Arizona – The Cardinals are a team that is built to win now.  They are in the softest division in the league and have no one capable of playing the Quarterback position.  I expect them to attack the free agent market and find a more seasoned QB like Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, or even Marc Bulger… which leaves them free to take the best player available for their defense.  I still can’t quite decide if that will be Patrick Peterson or Vonn Miller, but the best pure pass rusher in the draft is difficult to pass up.

A.J. Green, 6^th overall pick, Cleveland – The Browns have been in need of a playmaking WR since losing Braylon Edwards.  They have had bigger needs (like at QB) the past few years, but with Colt McCoy ready to take the starting job… he is going to need a decent target.  Green is the big playmaker that McCoy will need in order to flourish as a starting QB in a division with the Steelers and Ravens defenses.  Other possibilities are Robert Quinn (if he falls this far) or Da’Quan Bowers (if he is able to alleviate injury concerns at his pro day).

Patrick Peterson, 7^th overall pick, San Francisco – The 49ers have a new head coach, who will be looking to rebuild the team in his own image.  With the 7^th pick in the draft there are a lot of options for Jim Harbaugh.  But, with the elite QB talent gone, look for San Fran to take the best player available in LSU’s Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a shut down corner and by adding him, the 9ers maintain the best defense in their division (at least in my opinion). As far as other options, look for San Fran to take the top player available at the time… regardless of position.

Nick Fairley, 8^th overall pick, Tennessee – The Titans need a QB, but without an elite option left on the board I expect the Titans to fill the hole left by the departure of Albert Haynesworth.  Few head coaches understand the importance of offensive and defensive line play better than Mike Munchak and with a talent like Fairley available at a position of need for his team, expect the Titans to take their new DT.  Other possibilities include a QB or DE, but if the top 10 picks go at all like I expect, Fairley will be a great bargain.

Anthony Castonzo, 9^th overall pick, Dallas – The Cowboys have a pretty substantial need for a right tackle and Castonzo is, in my opinion, the only top 10 talent at the position.  I always envisioned him more at left tackle, but if they can figure out their offensive line issues, the Cowboys should go straight back to being a playoff team next season.  Other possibilities are fellow tackles Tyron Smith, Gabe Carimi, or CB Prince Amukamara.

Julio Jones, 10^th overall pick, Washington – The Redskins confuse the hell out of me at the moment.  I am unsure why Shanahan does not like Donovan McNabb, but assuming there is a QB he is comfortable with in place by the start of the season… he is going to need someone to throw to.  Santana Moss had a nice run, but it is time to pick the new long term deep threat for this offense.  Other options are DE Aldon Smith or any QBs that Shanahan decides he can mold into a starter in the NFL.

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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Kurt Warner will be missed, he brought this team out of the gutter and into the Super Bowl; He will always have a special place in the heart of Cardinals fans.  Now it is time for Matt Leinart to extend the winning tradition past the time of the future hall of famer.  There is no shortage of offensive weapons at the new guy’s disposal so it is up to him to live up to the expectations now.  Despite the uncertainty at quarterback Larry Fitzgerald is still an elite fantasy wide receiver on draft day only behind Johnson, Moss and Austin in my most recent WR rankings.  Beanie Wells got a fair bit of work in week one of the preseason and looked good, not great.  I still think the offense will find a rhythm and Beanie will do just fine.  Personally, I am not a big Matt Leinart fan.  I wish him well and hope he succeeds, but I there is a reason he lost the job to Warner.  Stay away on draft day unless you want to be disappointed.

Larry Fitzgerald – What can you say about this guy that hasn’t already been said? Nothing.  I do like Austin a bit more, mostly because of the stability of the guy throwing the ball.  However, he should produce just fine.

Beanie Wells – I think he is a down right steal if he falls to the 3rd round.  Wells will separate himself from Hightower as the lead back before long and I think he will end up a top 10 fantasy RB by the end of the season.

Early Doucet – Someone will need to fill in for Boldin if Leinart is able to run a pass-first offense.  Doucet will be that guy, but since it all hinges on Leinart you can get this guy in the last few rounds of your draft.

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With the retirement of Kurt Warner there is no clear number one team in this division.  Both the 49ers and the Cardinals have young untested QB’s and the battle for the division could come down to which of these two gets the best performance from their Quarterback position.  The race could get interesting as Matt Leinart has better weapons at his disposal, however I like that Alex Smith will be able to lean on his superior running game and defense when things get rough. The 49ers are my favorite to win the division.  The Seahawks will not be able to contend for a playoff spot until they find and groom Hasselbeck’s replacement (Charlie Whitehurst sure looked good in week 1 of the preseason).  The Rams will remain a basement dweller this year, but if Bradford can live up to the expectations that won’t remain the case for very long.

Arizona Cardinals

St. Louis Rams

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

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“Uh-oh. Kurt Warner woke up with sore neck and Cardinals now proceeding as if Matt Leinart will start. Source also said Warner could play.”

“So more and more, Warner looks like he is following the same path that Ben Roethlisberger did this week — to the bench to rest.”

This was just tweeted by Adam Schefter now!

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