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Giants at Cowboys

If your a football fan, you have to watch this game.  The Giants and Cowboys have to play each other twice still and Dallas has just a one game lead for first place in the NFC East. New York lost to the Packers last week and the Cowboys had a HUGE opportunity to go up by two games against the Arizona Cardinals but they blew it and lost in overtime.  The Giants have had a lot of trouble stopping opposing running backs over the past month to month and a half as teams have really forced the running game in an effort to slow the elite pass rush of New York. Last week the Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Felix Jones more involved and this limited the number of carries that DeMarco Murray saw.  This strategy led to a disappointing performance for both backs and by the end of the game, it was back to the DeMarco Murray show but it was just too late. On the flip-side the Giants have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL and fantasy-owners can go ahead and expect the top 10 performances of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to continue against a very average Cowboys secondary that is currently ranked 14th in the league. The bottom line for fantasy owners is that all the offensive players that you have been starting have to be started again.  Some crazy things happen when two NFC East teams face off and when the playoff implications are THIS high, I think we can expect more of a shoot-out than a defensive struggle over field position.  Miles Austin should be active in this game assuming he finds a way to practice without a setback but I think the Cowboys will continue to use Laurent Robinson in some of the 2 wide receiver sets.  I like the Cowboys to squeak out a win here after such a disappointing game last week with a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray in the running game to keep Eli Manning and his slew of receivers on the sideline.

Texans at Bengals

I hope you like defense because your going to see it in this game.  Despite adding Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia to the roster, Houston will continue to start T.J. Yates at QB and rely on him limiting mistakes and taking what the Bengals defense give him.  This game will be about field position and field goals and as a result, you have to downgrade all your fantasy options out of this game.  Arian Foster and A.J. Green remain must-starts due to their track record of performing admirably regardless of match up and to a lesser extent, Cedric Benson also retains enough value to be a decent starter this week.  A.J. Green has been incredibly consistent and has been able to beat every secondary deep with one exception, The 49ers back in week 3.  Houston’s defense has been great this season and is one of the best that Green will have to play this season but after remaining a top 10 receiver against the Steelers twice and the Browns, who are surprisingly the best pass defense in the NFL so far this season, I am not going to bench him now.  Andy Dalton however is not likely to do much more than find Green on one big play so I would definitely look elsewhere as opposed to starting Dalton. Anyone not mentioned needs to be left on your bench unless they are a kicker and even the guys that are mentioned as starters anyways are easily capable of being a disappointment so tread carefully and hope your studs come out of this game with a decent number of points.  I like the Bengals to win this CLOSE game because they are mildly able to pass the ball and eventually Benson will wear out this Texans defense.

Bears at Broncos

Speaking of defensive match-ups… The offense-less Bears are facing off against the story of the past month named Tim Tebow.  Tebow has just been winning games in whatever way has been available to him.  This game could easily be 6-3 going into the 4th quarter (or Tebow-time) and yet by the time it is all said and done, Tebow should be in the area of 20 fantasy points.  Regardless of how well Tebow plays, his ability to run the ball for positive yardage every time he tries translates into a very consistent fantasy QB.  Most leagues also only give 4 points for a passing TD so when Tebow runs one in, it means an extra 2 points.  Tebow remains a top 10 guy for fantasy owners and Willis McGahee is also a very quality RB2 option despite the rough match up.  I think the grind-it-out style of the Broncos will eventually break the Bears D after their offense gets almost nothing accomplished on the game.  I wouldn’t start a single Bear on offense unless you lost Forte and are desperate for an RB, then you can play Barber but do NOT expect much at all from him. Eric Decker is still a poor flex-play option for standard leagues as he is the most likely of the Broncos receivers to catch a deep ball.  Make Thomas have a big game in consecutive weeks before you risk starting him in the playoffs. The Broncos continue their unpredictable run for the divisional title and win this one.

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Studs

Bears, D/ST, CHI – I don’t think very many people expected a one-sided game between the Lions and Bears. Three defensive and/or special teams TDs for the Bears was unexpected and how this game got out of hand.  Chicago has one of them defenses that you should probably just start regardless of match-up and that strategy paid off this week.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Bush was just an absurd play-maker on Thursday night as he torched the Chargers defense for 157 rushing yards on 30 carries as well as 85 yards receiving. Bush only found the end zone once but still scored 29 points and was the 2nd highest scoring back for fantasy owners in week 10.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – Usually I don’t put the elite guys at each position in my Studs list when they perform like elite guys at their position… The difference this time is that John Skelton was at QB and Fitz still was able to haul in 7 catches for 146 yards and 2 scores.  No matter who is at QB for Arizona, you have to start Fitz.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – If you had told me in the preseason that I would be surprised that CJ put up 23 fantasy points against the Panthers , I would think you were crazy. I don’t think that we should be overly impressed here or expect some big turn around.  The Panthers defense is riddled with injuries and most of CJ’s stats came at the end of the game, when the Panthers were exhausted and had for all intensive purposes given up. CJ is still just an RB2 or flex play.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – He’s made me look foolish in the past but I am going to be pretty high on Lynch for a few weeks to come.  These past two games are the first back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances of Lynch’s entire career and with zero scary match ups until Chicago in week 15, Lynch may be in for a VERY big second half.  For now I would only be using him as a low-end RB2 to protect yourself from his inconsistency.

Duds

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – What the hell Buffalo… With a soft secondary, you can’t get anything done through the air? Your number one receiver has zero fantasy points?  Buffalo played like complete crap and its time to reel back in all the love for this offense.  Steve is a flex play and Fitz is barely a QB2 anymore.  The only person you can start reliably and without pause is Fred Jackson.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – Sproles had been phenomenal for the Saints this season and even though they got the win in OT against the Falcons, Atlanta COMPLETELY shut down the run.  Sproles, Thomas and Ingram ALL were just awful in this game.  I don’t think this means anything about the Saints’ backs but remember this when you have one of your other backs going up against the Falcons.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Speaking of duds… VJax got out-shined in a big way by rookie Vincent Brown and specifically Jackson gave up on a long pass into the end zone and did not even challenge the two receivers for the jump-ball.  Even if you lost it in the sun, you jump when they do and try to swat it away. Jackson had a terrible game and I am worried about how consistent he can be this season on this offense.  I am thinking of him as a WR2 unless its a favorable match-up from now on.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Pats tore the Jets to shreds and I am surprised that the Law Firm wasn’t even involved late to close out the game.  He is just a flex play at best due to the committee system and his inconsistency even when he gets the touches. Look to find someone to replace him asap if you are relying on him.

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Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Texans at Titans

Houston failed to run away with the division as I had thought they would and Tennessee actually sits in first at 3-2 with the Texans at 3-3.  The Titans got off to a VERY fast start when Kenny Britt was healthy and even with VERY limited production from Chris Johnson over the first three weeks. Johnson HAS had 12 fantasy points in two consecutive games to start to recoup some of his value but with where you drafted him and the size of his contract, I think we ALL can agree that one 100 yard rushing game is not good enough. Both defenses here are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per game and I think that the Tate and Foster combo will prove to be too much for Tennessee to deal with.  Matt Schaub is listed as Questionable at the moment but assuming he plays, I like the Titans to win this game handily. I think Chris Johnson and Arian Foster are must starts this week, as per the usual. And Nate Washington and Jacoby Jones are viable plug-in guys for an owner in Bye week hell.  In deeper formats Hasselbeck might be OK, but this Texans secondary is legitimate under Wade Phillips and you should look elsewhere if possible.

Chargers at Jets

With the Chargers’ record being this good, this early and the fact that the Jets have gone to two straight AFC championship games… I could see this being a preview of the AFC Championship game.  One thing needs to happen in order for us to get to that point though; The Jets need to play a LOT better. Both on offense and defense, the Jets are not the team I thought they would be and it all starts with the running game. The recipe for playoff success is simple; Run the ball and stop the run. Obviously you need to be able to stretch the field vertically to compete with the Drew Brees’, Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s of the world, but nothing shuts these elite QBs down like a lot of time on the sideline. This is exactly why the Chargers are going to win this game and I am not convinced it will be close.  The Chargers are healthy on offense again with Antonio Gates looking to rejoin the list of Rivers’ targets on offense and the Bye week helped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert get back into playing shape.  With two backs that are more productive than Shonn Greene and the Jets defense appearing unable to contain the running game, I think that we will see very limited fantasy production from all of your New York Jets.  The one guy I do want to start from New York is Santonio Holmes because of junk-time stats after the Chargers have already run away with it. Bye weeks might force you to use Greene, but I feel like you are hoping for a goal line carry or two here so that you can at least get a TD out of him. I think Mathews and Gates are in for big games for San Diego, but don’t expect too much from VJax and Rivers despite the fact that your going to be playing them.

Bears at Buccaneers

This game, if you didn’t know, is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Tampa has made this trip to play in London and they learned a thing or two the last time they did it. Don’t travel to London late in the week and face jet lag as well as your opponent… Tampa has been in London since Monday and holding practices in England all week. Chicago waited until today to make the trip and as a result, I think Tampa Bay has a serious advantage in this game.  You couldn’t make me bench Matt Forte at all this season but since Cutler and his receivers are risky under ideal circumstances, just leave them on the bench this week. Mike Williams clings to a top 20 spot in the rankings despite his hugely disappointing season thus far, but if this advantage holds true, one step is all a receiver needs to beat coverage deep and Freeman is still more than good enough to to recoup his fantasy value.  Earnest Graham is worth a play to fill-in for a bye week despite the weak match-up should Blount sit and it looks like he will. You shouldn’t look to this game for any deep or sneaky plays, but you should see solid outings from the guys that you have been counting on all year long.  I think Tampa gets the win as the “home team” and stays on top of their division.

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