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Studs

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – After being pretty well shut down for the first three quarters of the game, Vick picked the Eagles up and carried them to an amazing comeback victory that many are calling the Miracle at The New Meadowlands. Vick was personally responsible for 372 of the Eagles’ 418 yards.  He made one hell of a convincing argument for the NFL MVP and earned the top spot in my rankings for next week.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Rice had by far his best game of the season, with 31 carries for 153 yards and a TD, as well as 5 receptions for 80 yards and a second touchdown.  With the Browns as opponents next week, Rice is sure to have another solid performance and just in time for your super bowl.  Colt McCoy does provide stability and efficiency for the Browns offense, so don’t expect a repeat performance.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – He only caught five passes on 7 targets, but racked up 112 yards with THREE scores.  This is exactly why people drafted him in the late rounds, knowing it would take until at least half of the season for him to touch the field.  He is a top 10 WR as far as talent is concerned and with one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL throwing to him, he is a must start this week against the Bengals’ injured secondary.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – This is by far the best performance of Week 15 that NO ONE got the points for.  There have been many opportunities for Grossman to prove that he can be a starting QB in the NFL and he has never before managed to sustain success.  I will be assuming that this was a fluke, but regardless of how average his talent may be, the Jaguars do not have a very good secondary.  I am much more intrigued with Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong, but Rex should be able to get you double digit points if you are desperate for a QB2 in your super bowl.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Finally, the Bengals used Benson as their work horse and he saw over 30 carries in this game.  It looked oddly reminiscent of last season, when they were a winning football team.  With the Chargers coming into town there is little reason to assume the Bengals will be able to run the ball for long.  They should be down by a sizable margin by halftime and unable to provide the number of carries that Benson will need to be this productive again.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – This is the perfect scenario for Manningham to be productive.  I do not think he is good enough to be the top receiver and he is not able to maximize his potential as the slot receiver.  By being 2nd on the depth chart he avoids double teams and is on the field enough to really get into a rhythm with Manning.  He managed 8 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs in his new role and I like Manningham as a low-end WR2 or great flex play in your super bowl.

Bears, D/ST, CHI – The Bears’ D outscored Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson… this is no easy accomplishment!  If they had Webb leading the Vikings offense all game, there would have been more turnovers (though they did force an INT from Favre on a nice tipped pass at the line of scrimmage).  They were able to disguise their blitzes in order to confuse Webb all throughout the second half.  They should have a good game against the Jets inconsistent offense, in what should be a low scoring affair.

Jason Witten, TE, DAL – This makes 4 great fantasy-performances in a row under Jason Garrett and there is little reason to think it will stop with a game against the Cardinals coming up. It will be either Witten or Vernon Davis at the top of my TE rankings this week but i’m pretty sure you don’t own them both so don’t over think it, Witten is a must start for your Super Bowl match up.

Duds

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – I am almost lost for words about how disappointing his level of production and consistency has been in his new offense.  Whether you like it or not, Derrick Mason is the top receiver on the Ravens offense and Boldin cannot be trusted for your super bowl this week.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Jacobs was only able to muster 3 fantasy points after stringing together some very nice outings over the past few weeks.  This is primarily because they were not able to close out the game against the Eagles.  With Vick controlling the ball for the vast majority of the 4th quarter, Jacobs was on the bench during the part of the game where he normally excels.

Reggie Wayne, WR, JAC – The reason for this week’s 3 point game is pretty simple, Collie did a great job in the first half and stole the show.  In the 2nd half, Donald Brown was able to efficiently close out the game with the best performance of his short career. Wayne is still a top 5 wide receiver and should be in your lineup when the Colts play the Raiders next week.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Another hugely disappointing game with just 1 point for his fantasy owners.  Meanwhile, Maurice Morris was able to get 17 points.  Leave Best on your bench and if you have no better options than Morris, go ahead and use him!

Vernon Davis, TE, SF – To say that the 49er offense had troubles on Thursday is putting it mildly.  Their struggles should not be blamed on Alex Smith, who played a decent game.  He got no help from any of his receivers and all he needed was someone to step up and make a play.  That person should have been Davis, but the play calling of their newest offensive coordinator did not make an effort to get the ball into his hands.   You have to keep playing him, because hopefully they will realize how important he is to the synergy of their Frank Gore-less offense.

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI – After a big week 14, Hightower let his fantasy-owners down against the Panthers of all teams.  I did not expect him to top 100 yards, but I certainly thought he would manage more than two points!

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Chiefs at Chargers

The Kansas City Chiefs have a rare opportunity to bury the annual champions of their division this week.  KC has a two game lead on both the Chargers and the Raiders, so with only 4 games left in the regular season… a second December loss for Rivers and the rest of the Chargers would all but kill their hopes of making the playoffs.  They would drop below .500 and have nothing but an outside shot at a wild card spot, assuming they win the next three to finish 9-7.  The Chargers defense has been great all year, statistically, and should pose problems for Cassel and the Chiefs.  They have been able to bring pressure on the QB with their blitzing scheme all year, but they have not faced many offenses as balanced as the Chiefs.  The Chiefs’ two headed rushing attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones has been the key to their success and while Charles is clearly the superior back, the carries get split roughly evenly to keep both of them rested throughout the game.  A solid rushing attack like this allows the Chiefs to win tough, low scoring games like last week, but their pass catching tandem of Cassel and Bowe is currently responsible for the most TD passes in the league.  The Chiefs are a very complete team this year, even on the defensive side of the ball… but I have to think that the Chargers are more desperate and will find a way to win an important game at home in December.  Expect a good game from Philip Rivers against the 21st ranked pass defense in the league and Malcom Floyd is the receiver most likely to have a good week for fantasy owners.  Antonio Gates is holding his spot at the top of my TE rankings, so don’t keep downgrading him for his planar fascia injury.  Jamaal Charles should have trouble consistently finding holes in the Chargers stout defensive front, but his big-play ability keeps him as a must start and a top 10 in my rankings.  Even after being shut down last week against Denver, Dwayne Bowe remains a must start as he leads the league with TD catches and has earned a free-pass.

Patriots at Bears

Despite receiving very little recognition, the Bears are 9-3 and atop their division.  They are hoping to stay a game ahead of the Packers, but face the best team (by record) that the AFC has to offer.  Tom Brady has made the league’s elite defenses look foolish each time he has played one in recent weeks, but possibly faces the best pass rush he will in 2010.  Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher are playing inspired football so far this season and have been adept at forcing turnovers (26).  Brady on the other hand has not thrown an INT since week 6 against the Ravens in an OT win.  Tom Brady passed Brett Favre for the longest home winning streak by a starting QB in NFL history, but the game is in Chicago!  I expect the Bears to win this game, if Cutler is able to keep playing smart football and not put the ball where defenders can make a play on it.  If he can reduce his mistakes and limit his turnovers to, at most, one… He will upset the Patriots and earn a win that would all but clinch a playoff berth for his team.  I really like Earl Bennett’s chances to exploit a weak and inexperienced Patriots secondary and to continue his hot streak for fantasy owners who have recently added him to their team.  Cutler should have a good day as well, but there is always the concern that he starts making bad decisions and throws a small handful of INTs to one of the league’s worst secondaries.   Lower expectations for BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he remains a top 20 RB in my rankings for week 14.  Wes Welker is back to being a starting, quality, fantasy wide receiver finally and should be the one to see the most targets as Brady looks to his hot route to avoid the pass rush.

Raiders at Jaguars

The Jaguars have made a habit of being a part of the playoff conversation, but that almost always quiets down by the time the playoffs actually start.  The Raiders on the other hand have not played a game with meaning in December for quite a long time.  Jason Campbell has been playing some quality football and finally doesn’t need to worry about losing his job any longer with Bruce Gradkowski out for the year.  The Jaguars have not been able to cover any WRs that they have faced all season long and I do not expect that to start now.  The Raiders have embraced the youth on their team and have started to develop a new dynamic play maker in Jacoby Ford.   They have gone out of their way to get this guy the ball in space to let him make a play and it has been a quality strategy so far.  Because of this he is returning kicks, playing receiver, and even getting involved in the running game.  Don’t worry about sneaking Ford into your lineup unless you are desperate because we have all been burned by a Raider WR at some point during our fantasy football career… but he has stuck around and been a factor longer than anyone in his position in recent memory.  I like the Raiders to find a way to contain Maurice Jones-Drew (somewhat) and to make a few big plays and earn a tough win on the road.  The Raiders have managed wins against a lot of opponents better than the Jags in recent years and they have never had so much incentive.  Downgrade all members of the Jaguars passing game against a formidable Raiders secondary led by Nnamdi Asomugha, but don’t be caught with MJD on your bench for some strange reason!  A lot of fantasy owners and analysts seem to have forgotten how good Darren McFadden has been this season, but with only two games all season (that DMC played in) where he did not toal 100 all-purpose yards and 3 consecutive good matchups… he is essential to any playoff run you hoped to make. DO NOT get caught with this guy on your bench.

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Chargers at Colts

There are very few teams that have had regular success against Peyton Manning and the Colts… Philip Rivers and the Chargers are one of them.  Rivers finally has his full compliment of receivers for the first time all season, as pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson is finally back in action on Sunday night.  On the other side of the ball, the Colts are still banged up… RBs Mike Hart and Joseph Addai are unlikely to make a reappearance in this game and Donald Brown will likely have to share the load with Javarris James.  It isn’t December just yet, so Rivers doesn’t have any streak to defend… but I still like him to squeak out a win on the road, in by far the most appealing game of the week.  Even though it is his first game back in action, VJax shows up just outside my top 20 at WR this week.  The game should be a high-scoring passing affair and there wont be any time available for him to get acclimated to the speed of the game.  Mike Tolbert is another player who looks poised to have a strong performance as he faces a weak rush defense who has allowed a fair few big-games to guys like Ryan Torain and Arian Foster.  Given how stout the Chargers defense has been this season, I would look to someone other than Donald Brown this week.  He doesn’t seem to have a nose for the end zone and with only mediocre yardage in the other games that he was the lead-back… I see no reason to anticipate a breakout performance.  No need to downgrade anyone in the passing game with Manning at QB however.

Eagles at Bears

Two playoff contenders meet on Sunday in the windy city.  The Bears have been finding a way to win ball games, regardless of questionable QB play and a receiving corp that lacks a big, physical guy that can out jump opponents and come down with the ball in the red zone.  The Eagles on the other hand have had near-perfect QB play when Michael Vick has been healthy.  Vick has yet to throw an INT all season and with his speed and maneuverability he appears to be immune to the standard pass rush that most teams utilize.  One of the biggest reasons for the Bears’ winning record is their ability to generate pressure on the QB while only rushing four people.  That isn’t enough to stop Vick and I like the Eagles to win this game convincingly. I did downgrade McCoy in my rankings as he will have some trouble finding running lanes against this defense.  A lot of analysts are scared about the production of DeSean Jackson but as someone that owned him last season, I can tell you that bad weeks happen with this guy.  Most weeks he is able to get open deep and make a big play (at least once).  With this explosive potential it is just too risky to bench Jackson!  Maclin on the other hand, is the goto receiver for Vick and he is a must-start every week… at least until Vick’s play deteriorates… if it does.  Look for the Eagles to win this game by capitalizing on Cutler’s turnovers and by Vick scrambling to allow the big-play to develop down the field.

Packers at Falcons

These are the two teams that I like to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  The Packers have faced a ton of injuries and their offense is better and more balanced because of it.  Ok… so they would be more balanced if they never lost Grant.  Either way, the Packers are finally getting healthy again on the defensive side of the ball… and as long as Clay Matthews is leading that defense, the Packers have a chance. Look for the Packers to win this match in the dome, which could be a shootout.  Most players involved in this game are either studs, or not fantasy-relevant… so start Rodgers, Jennings, White and Turner! If they aren’t listed there, then they aren’t worth a start in a standard league. Sorry to cut this one short, but it is time for me to get to my family and enjoy the holiday!

Happy Thanksgiving to you all, enjoy the family, turkey and as always… FOOTBALL!!

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