With only one spot up for grabs in the NFC playoff picture and 2 spots open in the AFC, there are a lot of teams with little to play for and this week is a bit of a mess.  This is exactly why leagues should all be finishing on week 16.  You should talk to the commissioner about next season if it is not.

Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – They have been out of the playoff race for a long time so it’s not like the motivation is gone for Newton, who wants to continue to expand on the records he has already eclipsed in this incredible rookie season. New Orleans’ defense thrives on generating pressure, which is hard to do when the QB can just take off running.  Newton will be able to score points against this defense and maybe even a win if Brees and the rest of the Saints’ starters take some of the game off.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – When the game is on the line, Eli is going to look towards Nicks.  Victor Cruz might be the new talent but this game is no joke; win the game and win the division. Dallas’ secondary is not going to contain these two and it will be up to Romo to outscore Eli. Both Giants receivers are good starts this week.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – People were quick to call Spiller a bust as he sat behind Fred Jackson but ever since he has taken over for Freddie, he has improved on a weekly basis. Statistically and fundamentally, Spiller has made progress with each passing game.  He is learning to hit the pocket quickly and get up field and his ability to be an impact in the passing game makes him a very versatile threat.  Buffalo has a tough choice going into next season about who to start but fantasy owners do not, Spiller has to be out there.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson faces the league’s worst pass defense and is playing what is potentially his last game as a Buffalo Bill.  He would like to impress as he heads into an off season where he is a free agent to help drive up the size of his next contract, with whichever team that may be.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – After being dead wrong about how Lynch would perform against by far the best rush defense in the league last week, there is zero chance that I would make the same mistake twice.  Consistency has always been the downside with Lynch.  He has however been consistently phenomenal the 2nd half of the year and is very likely to go as a top 10 RB in next season’s draft.

Hate

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben is likely to take it easy this week, should he play. He faces a Browns defense that is stout against the pass and weak to the run.  Expect a heavy dose of the ground game and less of an emphasis on the aerial assault.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – I think the Buccaneers will still look to Blount first but they showed last week that he is on a short leash and you should expect them to yank him out of the game if he has any more fumbling problems.  He is just too risky for a start this week in my opinion.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Even if he comes back, he isn’t an auto-start.  The Texans aren’t likely to push him back and I expect him to see limited snaps.  He is a flex play at best on talent alone.  There still aren’t many red zone targets in the league and I would think that is where they would hope to use him the most.

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Patriots at Broncos

Don’t worry, I am not going to go on an on about how awesome Tebow is.  This is however the ultimate test of his abilities as a passer as well as the ultimate test for the Denver defense.  I watched my Bills win a string of close, come from behind games and I can assure you that the bubble has to burst some time. The Patriots have proven to be a beatable team this season because their secondary is the worst in the league and people have been able to keep pace with their offense.  It is really going to take a hell of a performance from the Bronco defense to contain both Welker and Gronkowski throughout the game and I think we would be foolish to expect the Broncos to be able to put up over 30 points.  Either way I think Tebow is in for one of his best statistical performances of the season and he is a great start for fantasy owners this week.  As for your Patriot players, production on the overall might be a little below the normal but you shouldn’t be too scared to play your guys anyways where you normally would.  Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are both viable flex plays this week, as for the first time there should be enough targets to go around.  I’m not about to predict a Tebow victory here but I do think it will be a relatively close game. I would guess in the area of 35 to 28.

Steelers at 49ers

The 49ers are on a bit of a slump at the moment after a rough loss to the Cardinals last week. They have a tough test this week to try and put this behind them with Pittsburgh coming to town.  In all honesty, I don’t see San Fran pulling this one off because they will need to get the job done in the running game and Pittsburgh has been much improved on defense in the second half of the season.  San Francisco should continue to shut down the running game but Pittsburgh is no longer a run-first team and Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown are going to be able to make a few big plays throughout the course of this game. Do everything in your power to leave Rashard Mendenhall on your bench and lower expectations from Frank Gore too although you likely have to play him regardless this week. Ben Roethlisberger is also worth a start but he is not at all likely to have a really big game against such a solid defense. I think Pittsburgh will likely win this by 2 scores unless Gore can break through the Steel Curtain and the 49ers defense holds the Steelers offense to under 20 points.

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Bengals at Steelers

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season.  They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go.  AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game.  I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game.  Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in.  Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them.  Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten.  I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league.  This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up.  I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears.  It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks.  Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game.  Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play.  This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense.  Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence.   Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

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Jets at Bills

I am lucky enough to be going to this game and there might not be one that has a bigger impact on the playoff picture in week 9. Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East and would have the #2 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today. Currently, the Jets are on the outside looking in on the playoff race and would have a really steep hill to climb if they lost this game. On offense, the Jets have gotten away from the ground and pound offense that has gotten them to two straight AFC championship games.  Buffalo’s defense has been incredibly opportunistic and currently leads the NFL with 14 interceptions. In order for Sanchez to get the win for his team and get back on track towards their Super Bowl aspirations, it will take a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and the run game. The Bills offense has been very explosive and it all starts with Fred Jackson, who is having an MVP caliber season. The Jets have been weak against the run and Jackson will pick them apart if they turn the ball over or get off to a slow start and force Sanchez to go to the air and play from behind. Unfortunately for Jets fans, that is how I see this game going.  Jackson just always seems to make the big play when it matters the most and the defense is constantly turning the ball over in crucial spots to help them put the game away. Steve Johnson is a flex play despite being on Revis island this week.  Fitzpatrick will look to him when he is in man coverage and should be able to put up OK stats in this game.  He hasn’t been great in recent weeks and I do not think that he will be able to do too much, but I just don’t think he can be benched. You can start all your normal Bills and Jets in this game, but I would avoid Sanchez as usual and expect this game to be largely about the running game.

Giants at Patriots

The Giants have a two game lead on their division and have been getting some incredible performances from both Bradshaw and Manning.  Bradshaw unfortunately is going to miss around a month of time and I am not sure Brandon Jacobs will be able to provide the same balanced offensive attack.  Luckily for them you do not need balance to attack the Patriots secondary, which is ranked dead last in the NFL and is allowing 323 yards per game. Hakeem Nicks is questionable going into this game and his presence would mean the difference in this game being either competitive or a blow out. If he plays it could go either way but without him, I do not know if they will be able to keep pace with Tom Brady. Brandon Jacobs gets a bump in value with Bradshaw out and you should play every Giants wide receiver that you own in this game.  Tom Brady is of course a must-start despite a pretty average performance last week and there are still no Patriots Wide Receivers that I would go out of my way to start.  I am expecting a Patriot victory in this game but if Nicks plays it will be a pretty close and high scoring affair.

Ravens at Steelers

My favorite part of the AFC North is that these two teams meet up twice a year.  There is always some great football to be had when defenses of this caliber meet up and these have been the best two defenses for at least a decade or two. This particular game could get out of hand as the Steelers are surging and the Ravens struggling, but nothing forces you to play your best like a divisional rivalry game that decides who will sit in first place. I would stay away from any flex plays from either team and just focus on your typical starters: Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Mike Wallace and Ben Roethlisberger.  Anquan Boldin is typically a very good WR2 option, but I think of him more as a poor flex play this week against this Steelers team that just shut down Brady.  I like Pittsburgh to get a tough win, but the Ravens defense has not been what has struggled as of late so I don’t see it being by any more than 10 points.

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Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas has been a very inconsistent team this season.  Half the time Romo looks like a hero and the other half he looks like a scapegoat. Philadelphia has the opposite problem.  They have been consistently awful all season long!  They struggle to stop the run on defense and they also have not been able to keep from turning the ball over on offense. Offensive production in terms of points and yardage have never been the issue, but they just simply have not been able to overcome the turn overs.  I expect Dallas to lean on DeMarco Murray to take full advantage of the Eagles undersized defensive front and inability to contain the running game.  Because of Murray, the Cowboys should be able to keep Vick and the Eagles high-flying offense on the sideline and control the clock.  Dallas also has the ability to go deep with Austin and Bryant at receiver so this should be a great game regardless of who wins. I slightly downgrade the Cowboys ground game and think Murray is a must-start as an RB2 for this week. The Dallas defense is not good enough to make me downgrade any of the Eagles and you should still be starting all the usual suspects despite the losing streak. I like Dallas to win a close game with a heavy dose of the run game.

Patriots at Steelers

Brady has historically had no trouble passing against the Steelers and Pittsburgh has no one that can contain Welker, but I expect the run game to be a big part of New England’s plan this week.  Law Firm has been running strong the past couple of weeks and Ridley has been coming along as his primary backup.  With two quality runners and a Steelers defense that has been pretty mediocre against the run, Brady will probably not stick to the pass too much.  I think that the Steelers passing game should be in a for a big day.  Roethlisberger has not had much time to throw this season but then again, the Patriots have not been able to get much pressure on the QB or cover receivers in the vertical passing game.  Mike Wallace is an absolute MUST start in this match up and if you have Big Ben, you likely do not have a better option either. Welker and Brady have just been too good this season to bench ever too and I think New England squeaks out a win in a VERY close game.

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