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Studs

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – You drafted him for consistency and that is why he has stayed at the top of my rankings all this time.  Many of his owners were upset that he hasn’t had a really big game yet this season. So please, stop now! Three TD’s in the first quarter definitely qualifies as a HUGE game and was enough to earn more fantasy points than any other player in week 5.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – About time right? Ben finally blew up and threw for 5 TD’s and 1 INT on Sunday to go along with his 228 yards. Most impressively was completing 25 of 35 passes with a poor offensive line protecting him. He was never someone I would consider dropping and I won’t let one game pull him outta the doghouse, but if he can get back to 20+ fantasy points next week I will have to bring him back into the top 8 or so at QB.

Matt Cassel, QB, KC – Cassel waited until roughly every single fantasy owner had jumped ship and dropped him to finally have a good game. Cassel threw for 257 yards with 4 TDs and was tied for the 2nd best fantasy QB of the week. This was a fluke. There is no need to go pick him up, but it does make me like Steve Breaston a little bit more. The bottom line is that unless Jackie Battle is able to keep up such a productive rushing attack, the passing game is just not going to be able to get going.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – I have a hard time viewing this as not a fluke. Maybe it’s because he beat me this past week with his 125 yards and 2 TDs, but it also might be because i’ve seen this before.  Garcon does a good job of getting open and has plenty of upside, but he is inconsistent and frequently struggles with drops. This is compounded by Painter being a consistency issue as well. The stars have been aligned for these two the past two weeks, but I couldn’t start Garcon next week unless I was desperate.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – There are a lot of people who want to call this a fluke. I will agree that the TD catch WAS a fluke, but Cruz is not. He led the Giants in targets with 11 last week and hasn’t been behind ANYONE other than Nicks since week 3. Eli trusts him and is looking for him.  Cruz is a play maker and as long as he is being thrown to, he will be able to keep putting up numbers. I think Cruz has passed Manningham in my rankings and I don’t see that changing. If you didn’t see the catch, make sure you watch it below. (I hope you don’t mind salsa music…)

Duds

Mike Williams, WR, TB – I guess it really is time to panic. The 49ers should have been a very beatable team for the Buccaneers, but instead Tampa Bay just got crushed. They couldn’t stop the run or the pass on defense and the offense was not able to get ANYTHING going. I can’t in good conscience keep him in my top 20 at WR any longer. You should be looking for a long term replacement, but don’t drop him from your team just yet.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – See Mike Williams.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – I’m not worried at all about Johnson, but two points is lower than you were hoping for in week 5.  Whether they are winning or not, the Eagles have some great corner backs and I won’t even expect a big performance from a receiver against that group.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Walter definitely saw an increase in stats after Andre Johnson was inactive for week 5. I expected Jones to be the guy that filled in and I still think he will be the better start for the next few weeks. Walter is just not as good of a red zone target, though if it was a PPR league I would give the nod to Walter.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – I know it was against Green Bay, but the Falcon’s week 5 loss really makes me nervous. I thought they were a MUCH better team at home?! Michael Turner was the only guy that looked good for Atlanta in this game as Matt Ryan didn’t even pass 200 yards.

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What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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