Vikings at Saints

There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game.  The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses.  To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four.  Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed.  If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary.  Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest.  Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes.  Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.

Ravens at Jets

There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive,  field position battle.  If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle.  Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch.  I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.

Bengals at Patriots

This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week.  The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense.  The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game.  I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.  I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to.  He will be fine overall on the season  but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years.  Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues.  Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.

Colts at Texans

The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season.  The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it.  The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game.  If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive.  The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone.  In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.  The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes.  I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning.  Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.

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Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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The Bengals were a heart wrenching team last season.  They won every game against divisional opponents with a devastating running game and stout defense.  Late in the year a team member passed away, and the team seemed to never recover from that.  They lost two consecutive games to the New York Jets in week 17 and then in the playoffs to end the season and left us all wondering if Carson Palmer has enough left in the tank to try and make one last playoff run.  Cedric Benson will continue to be the driving force of the offense and the addition of Antonio Bryant should give the passing game a significant boost as well.  I am torn about the allegations made against Benson recently.  It took quite a long time to hear about it which leads me to believe the incident was pretty low key.  I am an innocent until proven guilty kinda guy and will be treating the situation as though he wont miss any time.

Top Fantasy Players

Cedric Benson – This guy was robbed of comeback player of the year last year because of the league’s love affair with Tom Brady.  Benson was a workhorse for the Bengals, he carried the team to one of the best regular seasons they have ever seen.  Benson will not have quite as productive of a season, but should be a great RB2 option.

Chad Ochocinco – I know, he talks better than he catches. With that said he still catches pretty damn well, and now there is a very talented WR on the other side of the ball in Antonio Bryant.  Chad may just have his best season in a while… assuming I am wrong about Carson Palmer being done playing competitively in this league.

Antonio Bryant – Sleeper Alert! Bryant was a WR3 or flex option when he played in Tampa Bay, and now he upgrades offenses and quarterbacks.  With a back like Benson there is no way defenses will be scheming against the number 2 receiver.

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The AFC North is, in my opinion, not really up for grabs this year.  The smart money to win it this year is the Ravens… Hands down!  The Browns are almost sure to be basement dwellers again this time around and with Big Ben out for at least 4 games the Steelers ought to be too far back from the outset but they will have a chance to compete for a wild card run.

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

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1. Vikings
2. Bengals
3. Packers
4. Cardinals
5. Cowboys
6. Saints
7. Steelers
8. Jets
9. Broncos
10. Ravens
11. 49ers
12. Eagles
13. Chargers
14. Redskins
15. Colts
16. Texans
17. Titans
18. Bills
19. Giants
20. Dolphins

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1. Vikings
2. Bengals
3. Cardinals
4. Packers
5. Saints
6. Steelers
7. Broncos
8. Cowboys
9. Ravens
10. 49ers
11. Jets
12. Eagles
13. Chargers
14. Redskins
15. Colts
16. Texans
17. Titans
18. Bills
19. Giants
20. Dolphins

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Cowboys at Saints – This is a match-up between a team struggling for a playoff birth and another team striving for a perfect season.  There is a lot of emotion involved in a game like this.  If the Cowboys lose to the perfect Saints their playoff hopes are all but gone, and many people with-in the organization will need to update resumes.  I actually think that this Cowboys offense is playing well and that despite everything that is stacked up against them, the Boys will find a way to win this one.  They are a desperate team that has struggled as of late, however good games from Romo and the receiving core could give the Saints their only loss of the year if they can force a couple turnovers on defense.  Upgrade Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush as this should be a game of big plays.

Dolphins at Titans – This is a battle for the inside track to the wild-card seed in the playoffs.  The Titans need to win out, and the Dolphins still have the division within their grasp, though they need some help from the Patriots to over take them.  Both teams are fighting for their lives and this always leads to some exciting football.  Williams owners should curb your expectations for him… he is still as a RB2 or a great flex option but he wont be having a huge yardage game this week.  Davone Bess is the best fantasy option at receiver from the Dolphins but you’re digging deep if your going there anyways because there are no big play threats in that receiving core which was built for Pennington and can’t take advantage of Henne’s deep ball ability.  Kenny Britt should be fine as a flex or WR3 play in 12 team leagues (or more) assuming VY is active, and of course Chris Johnson is the best back in fantasy this season and there is no reason that should change this week.

49ers at Eagles – DeSean Jackson is set to go off this week against a 9ers secondary vulnerable to the big play.  They beat up on the Cardinals because they got so much pressure, they wont have as much luck against this offensive line.  Gore is a great play at RB as last week there was an excellent balance in the San Francisco offense which is the environment that Gore thrives in.  Maclin is going to be inactive for this week so Jason Avant is a great play at WR this week, and Michael Crabtree is also a great play.  As this offense matures so does Crabtree, excellent flex option this week in what could be a shoot out.

Bengals at Chargers – Two AFC studs meet this weekend in a potential playoff preview.  The Chargers don’t lose in December, and the Bengals have only been beaten twice this year (I know they have three losses, I just don’t count that fluke play against Denver as being “beaten”) and are coming off a loss and want the momentum back for going into the playoffs.  The Chargers are pretty decent at stopping the run but Benson gets so many carries that he overcomes bad match-ups and he remains a good start this week.  Temper expectations on players in this one, as there are good defenses on the field and big plays wont come easy.  Vincent Jackson should stay on track as an elite receiver.

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Sunman

Cinci defense ok to start against Minnesota? My other choice is to get buffalo def off waivers.

I think they are ok, something has Peterson not at 100%, what that is we don’t know.  What we do know is that he was absolutley a non-factor in last weeks game and Childress won’t let that happen again… With that said the Bengals are very stout vs the run, however haven’t faced more than one ELITE back this season.  It will be a really interesting game, but I do not think you can trust the Bills defense in the playoffs.  Also to take into consideration Harvin has had issues with migraines since he was a boy, and they have flared back up this week, he has now missed two practices.

MR.MVP

WR help who Rober Meachem (NO) @ Atl, Terrell Owens (Buf) @ KC, Michael Crabtree (SF) vs Ari, or Mario Manningham (NYG) vs Phi

I’m planning on starting RB’s Ricky Williams (Mia) @ Jac and Cedric Benson (Cin) @ Min, other option would be Laurence Maroney(NE) vs Car.. what do you think??

Well MVP, I see no reason to hold a roster spot for Manningham if you can get a britt, or a crabtree, or avant, or lots of people really so your good to go ahead and drop him.  TO is your starter this week, the Chiefs are not a very good team by any stretch, and apart from his turn on Revis island (I think he had a photo shoot there for his modeling gig) TO has been very productive recently.  Trust him against a week secondary as the Bills are likely to slide in draft position this week after a win.

Benson is a workhorse, 30+ carries last week, you got it right and here is why: Sammy Morris looked explosive last week as well as Fred Taylor is possibly making his return this week.  Maroney looked good, but there are two guys around now that will take goal line work (Taylor) and 3rd down as well as some regular work (Morris).  Not much is left as far as being relevant in fantasy football.

T Hop

Hi Big Jim,
I can start 2 RBs, which 2 do I start. Addai, D. Williams, or J. Charles. I’m completely stuck here so thanks for your help!

This actually goes a little contrary to my rankings, but I’m going to put a stipulation on it.  I would start Charles and Addai, however, If Williams looks like he will be 100% based off late week practices then go with him over Charles.  This is the playoffs so we can’t take a risk and bench a guy like Williams if he is healthy.

Willie M.

hey Jim two questions:
1. Whats the deal with Mike Sims-Walker; yahoo says he has a calf injury. Is he worth a start?
2. Whats the deal with Kenny Britt and Justin Gage? yahoo says Gage is back in the starting lineup but im still starting Britt at this point. Good idea?

Well Willie, MSW does indeed have a calf injury, but he will be a game time decision for Sunday so we’ll have to wait until then to decide.  His role might be minimized but i cannot speak to whether he is still worth a start without your other receivers.  Also Gage will be coming back at some point, but he has been out a while and will take some time to get used to the speed of the game again.  He won’t likely start eating at Britt’s productivity for a couple weeks.

Josh

which 2 wrs???
ocho, sims walker, V.Jax, smith NYG, D.Mason
thanks

VJax and Ocho – Jackson wont stay in this slump, I still trust him as a WR one without a doubt. The Vikes have proven they can be thrown on so Ocho should be just fine as well assuming they Bengals O-Line can contain Jared Allen.  I think they do a good enough job where Ocho gets in the end zone (this is what play action is for, and why Benson gets 30 carries a game).

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Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals – This match-up premiers two of the toughest run defenses in the league.  The Vikings have a ridiculously large and powerful defensive line that is adept and both run stopping and pass rushing.  The Bengals are more of a group of unknowns than Jared Allen and the Williams’ in the middle for the Vikes, but they rank 2nd in the league vs the run and 4th in the league in overall defense.  We may not have expected them to be this good, but they are well coached and playing as a cohesive unit, something most defenses no longer due (Baltimore!).  Two premiere RBs face two premiere run defenses so how do us analysts rank these guys?  Well its sure tough but there is a reason you drafted Peterson first overall and that was to play him!  Peterson is still a top10 back despite the match-up problems and has to be started.  Benson is also a top 10 back this season but he falls a little farther past 15 but above 20.  You are likely still playing him, however if you were lucky enough to draft Ray Rice and Ricky Williams you could very well have better options.  As far as passing goes, Favre looks to be falling out of my top 10 at QB this week and not because of his age.  I think the Vikings match-up really well here and I think that AP will get the best of this Bengal D that hasn’t faced too many elite backs so far this season.  If the Vikings do not game plan to beat these guys in the running game and succeed I fear for how deep into the playoffs they can really go.  The Vikes secondary can be thrown on, so I also think that if the Bengals are going to win it has to be in a shootout through the air.  This wont be easy as Palmer hasn’t been playing like his old self this season (though quite good), he is merely managing the game they hope to win by running the ball over 30 times with Benson.

San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys seemed to have solved their offensive woes as they ad a good outing last week in a tough divisional loss to the Giants.  The Cowboys have a tough schedule and the playoffs are a must if people like Wade Phillips and Tony Romo if they hope to be employed next year.  Unluckily for them they are facing a red hot Chargers team that needs to maintain their winning ways now that Denver is out of its losing streak.  I do not think that either defense is so good that there are any offensive players devalued by their match-up.  On the contrary this should be a decently high scoring affair and the likes of Rivers, Austin, and Jackson see a slight increase in their stock this week.

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts - This is the best chance there is left in the regular season for the Colts to add a notch to the loss column; Orton has come back from his injury pretty well, Marshall is making plays for him in the passing game, and Moreno and Buckhalter are both good backs that are making the most of their chances.  The Broncos are a complete football team that is well coached, but the Colts have Manning and that has been the only coach to make much of a difference.  The players I like in the game are the usual players for each team, Manning, Wayne, Moreno and Marshall.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – I love when two teams from this division play, they are always fun to watch so if you get the chance I recommend it.  Brian Westbrook is potentially going to be playing in this game, and this devalues LeSean McCoy, and couple that with his limited use last week, and his future gets murky.  He is still a great flex play this week or a RB2 if you are hurting from injuries at the moment.  DeSean Jackson looks to be returning as well this week, and should do just fine in the same role you were using him before.  Manningham has been a huge flop as of late so you aren’t using him, but Smith has been seeing a bump in productivity as he has seen at least 7 points in each of the last four weeks.  Smith is coming fresh off a 110 yard performance last week and should be a solid WR2 spot this week as we should see a fair share of scoring.

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