Love

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – To be clear, I couldn’t care less if RGIII plays or not.  Even if he plays, Morris’ workload WILL increase as a precaution to try and keep Griffen from running too much.  Morris was already an irreplaceable factor for this offense and given his youth, they won’t be afraid to lean on him.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – The Buccaneers are headed on the road to New Orleans this week and that means there are two bad defenses on the field and the potential for a lot of points to be scored.  Jackson has been an amazing addition for Tampa and they have been able to keep him VERY productive.  They are going to have to throw deep to keep up with Brees and that should mean plenty of opportunity for VJax.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Law Firm has been on a tear lately and with a game against the Eagles (among the worst defenses in the NFL since firing Juan Castillo) this week, there is no reason to expect a change.  Law Firm is typically a mid-to-low end RB2 but in this matchu-up, he falls just outside the top 10.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – Alexander continues to be a force for the Chargers offense that took down Pittsburgh this past week.  Danario is a large man that uses that size to box-out defenders and give Philip Rivers somewhere to throw.  So far he is the only guy getting open with any consistency and that isn’t likely to change against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – There is no hotter QB in the NFL at the moment and especially so for fantasy owners.  Newton has had 37, 28 and 36 fantasy points in the past 3 weeks. Atlanta is the only defense that was really any good in this stretch but San Diego is far from a great defense too and I think, if your still alive in the playoffs, you’ve GOTTA keep Newton in there.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – This may seem like an obvious one here but Charles owners should have high hopes this week.  The Raiders are just 26th against the run and they are struggling as of late.  Charles is the entirety of the Kansas City offense and is almost certain to see the 100 yard mark this week.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The fact that Turner keeled over in exhaustion at the end of the game and by coincidence fell over the goal line does not give me any confidence.  Watch the tape people, this isn’t the same guy you had on your team three years ago.  He’s too slow to get through a hole and into the second and third levels like he used to, leave him on your bench because ALL of his value is at the goal line.  It’s like starting Michael Bush.

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I won’t be surprised if he gets a big game here but it’s about risk in the playoffs and that is one thing that Moore has in spades.  The whole Raiders team is floundering a little bit and while Moore was good for you in the middle of the season, don’t look for it here.  I know the match up is appealing but you need safe and consistent, not a hail-mary.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – The Packers do not have a crippling defense by any means but the Bears DO have a pretty bad offensive line.  Clay Matthews is set to return and with all that rest, he’s going to be coming back with a vengeance. If he gets in Cutler’s face early on, it will frustrate the Bears signal caller and we’ve all seen him play when he is frustrated.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Mr. Smith, have you met Champ Bailey?  You are about to.  Old man Bailey has been playing like he’s 25 again this season and he’s doing that all with the added experience that comes from actually being 34 years old.  Jim Caldwell will utilize Ray Rice much more now that he has the offensive coordinator position and that makes Smith nothing more than a poor flex option this week. 27th among WRs in my rankings.

Bryce Brown, RB, PHI – I can’t believe analysts can still put Brown as an RB 2 this week.  I had him at 20 last week, after consecutive great games and now that he just put up zero points last week, they have him higher… it doesn’t add up to me.  You won the lottery if you started this guy and won last week, don’t try and win it twice.

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Not many teams have as strong of a commitment to the run as the 49ers do.  Colin Kaepernick didn’t have his best game passing the ball against the Rams this past week and in order to get back on track, I anticipate a heavy dose of Gore.  Don’t sweat the match-up either because the Dolphins are not the stout run defense that they were in the first half of the season. I blame the offensive for this as their inability to convert on third downs has led to a tired defense late in games and they simply get over run. Expect more of the same this week when the east coast team travels west.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – I expect both Cruz and Nicks to do very well in this game. Let’s be honest about their opponent… Brees is NOT going to lay another egg like last week and the Saints defense is NOT going to be able to stop this Giants offense that really turned a corner last week on offense. Manning certainly played better than before the bye week but the timing was just a shade off against the Skins and I expect the throws to be right on time the rest of the way.  New York always finishes the season strong and because of that, I love their players during the fantasy playoffs.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET –There are a lot of negatives surrounding the Lions right now.  They dropped too many winnable games early in the season to be fighting for a playoff spot and injuries have decimated the receiving corps but Calvin Johnson remains healthy and that is enough for me.  The Packers secondary is their weak spot and with Clay Matthews looking to miss this game as well, Stafford will have plenty of time to let Megatron get open before he dumps it off to Pettigrew and Mike Thomas.  If somehow Stafford DIDN’T cost you your playoff spot, you can confidently start him this week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – The Bengals lost an offensive weapon (Mohammed Sanu) to IR this week and while it won’t have a big impact on the game plan, it could lead to a few extra run plays.  Given that the Law Firm has been playing by and far his best football of the season over the past three games, I am able to start him with as much confidence as I’ve ever been able to all year.  Dallas isn’t a good match-up but after what Bryce Brown did to them last week, I am far from scared of playing a quality running back against them.

Browns, D/ST, CLE – It takes a lot for me to step up and stake a claim to a defensive unit for my love list but here it is.  And it’s the Browns of all teams.  Everyone has been so surprised by the production of Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon and Brandon Weeden that they don’t notice that it is the defense keeping them a competitive ball club. The wins haven’t come but they also haven’t played any games against Brady Quinn yet.  Jamaal Charles will be productive but the Browns have as much value this week as they ever will and at 6 in my rankings, they are the defense that I am looking to on free agency this week.

Pierre Garcon, WR, WAS – A TON of owners bailed on this guy after a few too many weeks on the inactive list.  I scooped him up in a few leagues and I have to say, he’s a great addition so late in the year.  This is the unquestioned top threat for RGIII, who is going to make plays regardless of who is on the field. Given the elite level of play that Griffen has been displaying on a weekly basis, it’s hard to imagine there being very many under-whelming games for Garcon.  He didn’t crack my top 20 quite yet but if he can find the end zone again this week, he’ll be there for sure for week 15.

Hate

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Throw away all the stats about what month it is because they are irrelevant, albeit fun to talk about.  Tony Romo has been awful all year.  The team sits at .500 and yet it’s been in spite of the play of Romo.  He is making poor decisions and turning the ball over far more consistently in years past and I can’t trust him to be a starter in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Josh Gordon, WR, CLE – I had written some positive things about Gordon leading up to my rankings and then, quite frankly, I wussed out.  I just can’t list a Cleveland Browns receiver inside my top 20 inside the playoffs. He fell to 28 in my ranks because I am not supremely confident that I can expect him to score a TD, even if it IS against the Chiefs.  There is even a decent chance that Richardson runs away with the game and the Browns aren’t focused on the vertical passing game.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – I am fully aware of how good he has been for you thus far but a lot of owners would be wise to sit him down this week against the Texans.  Houston can move the ball on offense however they chose, especially against such a weak defense.  This leads me to believe that they game plan will be heavy on Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels and a little lighter for Arian Foster.  The Patriots on the other hand, won’t have free reign on offense as they play host to one of the best defenses in the AFC.  Brady will need to be slinging the ball around and Ridley’s value will be too dependent on goal line work for me to call him a must-start, which I think most people would do.

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – This is more so a cautionary warning for Brown owners with a bad memory.  He was AWFUL so far this season prior to the injury and when you add in the fact that Big Ben’s performance will likely be less than 100%, there isn’t a lot of faith that starting Brown won’t mean my season is over.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – I saw his game last week and I still can’t get myself to want to start this aging running back.  He even has a decent match-up against Carolina who I expect to lose by a fair margin, which would usually mean a fair amount of work to run clock and put the game on ice.  I am just too worried about the prospect of a 13 carry 45 yard performance with Rodgers and Snelling seeing a little bit more work to ensure the healthy of Turner in the post season.

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The New York Giants have the second easiest schedule for fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs for the playoffs.

Ahmad Bradshaw is 15th in the NFL in points scored among running backs.

Andre Brown has been the goal line back since he played relief-duty for Bradshaw earlier in the season.

Brown is now on IR and Bradshaw will be getting those goal line touches.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has just 2 100 yard games and 5 TDs on the entire season.

2 of those 100 yard games have come in the last two weeks.

In each of those games he also scored once.

The emergence of Andy Dalton and the passing game has helped bring the 8th man out of the box and into pass coverage.

Cincinnati has an incredibly tough schedule for fantasy points allowed during the playoffs.

The Law Firm is going to sit at around 18 or so in my rankings headed into the playoffs.

Denarius Moore had at least 4 catches in every game between weeks 3 and 10.

Moore has just 2 catches in as many games.

Oakland has the 5th hardest schedule for fantasy production at the wide receiver position.

Moore is not going to be anything more than a bad flex play headed into the playoffs.

Josh Gordon is a big-play threat.

Gordon has not scored a TD in 5 weeks, which includes a bye week.

Brandon Weeden has a good chance to make it back to action in time for next week’s game.

The next three match-ups for Cleveland are Oakland, Kansas City and Washington.

Gordon is a poor flex option in a standard 10 team league.

Brandon Lloyd has just 1 game with more than 5 receptions since week 3.

Lloyd has just 3 TDs on the season.

Brandon Lloyd is only even a consideration at the flex position for one more week, while we see what happens with Gronkowski out.

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Studs

Marques Colston, WR, NO – So typically Colston is a very hit or miss player but with two simply great performances in a row, fantasy owners might just be falling in love… Don’t. This is what he has done for years, he WILL finish the season as a top 15 or so WR every year and it will be because of a few really big games and a whole slew of mediocre or worse ones.  Despite that, I enjoy drafting Colston because if he often slips far down and if he gets a couple of these games in a row, someone will be willing to pick him up in a trade. Try and sell high if you can but do not expect Colston to be turning into a new #1 WR.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – Indianapolis Colts fans should be almost as excited as dynasty league fantasy-owners of Andrew Luck as he won a really big statement making game against the Packers this week. Watch the game if you can, it was an incredible drive where Luck continued to find Reggie Wayne despite all 11 defenders being fully aware that he was the target the entire time.  Luck is climbing the ranks of #2 QBs at the moment but I would still be surprised to see him crack the top 10 at all.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – 30 carries and 200 yards is exactly what you want to see if you have an irrational fear of odd numbers.  Really a very impressive outing from a guy that we thought would be sharing the load with Andre Brown.  I’m not dropping Brown yet however because Bradshaw isn’t known for durability and the Giants would be smart to let Brown keep him healthy a bit more than was the plan this week. Bradshaw will be ranked somewhere around the 10-15 range I am thinking right now.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – What a phenomenal game here from Wayne. I mentioned him above so I’ll just throw the numbers at you. 20 targets, 13 receptions, 212 yards and a score. He was super human and he is not going to stop any time soon.  He has a slew of awesome match ups until week 15 against the Texans seems likely to dampen his numbers.  Kudos to you for this draft day steal, might be the biggest one of the year.

Alex Smith, QB, SF – Yes, I am bitter about it but I almost didn’t put Smith in the list as his numbers were more a by-product of abysmal coverage by my Bills on Sunday than anything else. That isn’t really fair because they registered for fantasy owners all the same. You wish you had Alex Smith to back up Matthew Stafford this week because 28 points is always a welcome sight from your back up QB. Don’t overreact though because sadly, my Bills’ secondary IS that bad.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – So you will always have this lingering thought in your head whispering “committee back” but the numbers are there. Another big week with 28 carries 151 yards and a TD. I can’t imagine a scenario where your team is so good that you aren’t starting this guy.  I don’t think he is a sell high unless someone is absolutely in love with him and thinks he’s a top 5 guy but he is an ideal #2 RB at the moment.

Duds

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – He has elite-level upside but he isn’t showing me the consistency to think that he will always be a top 10 guy.  It’ll take an especially tough match-up to drop him that low but you have to be worried and you HAVE to have another option at your disposal at this point.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – The Bills absolutely sucked. The offense was completely inept and while no one was surprised that they got smothered by the 49ers defense, I ranked Johnson well on an expectation of junk-time.  Boy was there a TON of junk time.  San Francisco pulled their starters with like 9 minutes left and yet still… three points. Disappointing. Johnson might just prove to be a frustrating player the rest of the way as he almost alternates between good and bad match ups. I think the Bills will beat the really bad teams but continue to struggle against talented ones.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – I never am happy to see a guy get injured but law firm owners are lucky that Bernard Scott got hurt in this game because the Bengals had Scott in the game for the entire second series so indications were that a time share was incoming for the Bengals offense. I guess it’s back to the original high volume plan for Green-Ellis.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I say it a ton but honestly, can you really count on this guy ever again? Completely random good weeks don’t help anyone. The fact that he did well against Houston of all teams makes this all the more frustrating. Don’t own him anymore.  Someone will pick him up and he WILL be a blight on their roster.

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – There is no secondary elite tier anymore. Gates used to be the only one there and I’m over that. Wake me up when he gets double digit points.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – Bye weeks are the ONLY reason that he will likely remain inside or around the top 20-25. Hugely disappointing year in my opinion so far.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – I haven’t seen this game yet but I don’t have to in order to understand that fantasy owners aren’t going to like one point. The stats tell me that New York’s defense is still at least average in the passing game and Schaub wasn’t at his best. This will happen on such a run-focused team but you still gotta start this guy.

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Love

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – I’m just re-aggravating myself about week 1 as I write this but Spiller has the reins of this offense in his hands and currently is the NFL’s leading rusher.  Who knows what to expect from the Bills defense but no matter what you say about them, you have to admit that they found a way to provide fantasy-production to their players by the time the game ended.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – The Bengals lost a bad game bloody this week and they now have probably the easiest match-up of the season as the Browns come to town. To make matters worse, Joe Haden is officially suspended and will not be with the team this week so there won’t be ANYONE to contain Green in this game. He is among the best receivers in the NFL already in his young career and this could well be his best game of the season.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Ryan played a phenomenal game last week on the road against the Chiefs. Rumor has it that Arrowhead is a tough place to play and it just didn’t matter. With Ryan’s track record for being a BETTER player at home, you can not bench him now. The Broncos are coming to play in the dome and that bodes well for Peyton too so we could have a shoot out on our hands and Ryan owners sure won’t mind that.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – Chicago couldn’t even cover Reggie Wayne last week.  He had 9 catches on 18 targets and racked up 135 receiving yards (most in the NFL).  Greg Jennings has a groin injury and is listed as doubtful for Thursday night.  Historically speaking, doubtful is as good as being listed as out so Nelson will have a nice match-up in a potential shoot-out. Must start this week.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – If you DON’T love the law firm this week, you clearly didn’t watch the same week 1 performance that I did. He had 18 carries for 91 yards and a score, which was good enough to make him the 11th best back for the week. What’s most impressive is that he did it against a terrible match-up in a blow-out loss. He is a MUST start against the Browns who are just about the worst team in the NFL this season.  He should see a lot of work to close out the win and I would be shocked if he wasn’t over 100 yards.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Cutler makes it into my top 10 QB’s for the week with a tough Thursday night match-up against the Packers. Alex Smith pretty well carved up this defense last week and while they will certainly be out for redemption, Cutler has a more prolific offense at his disposal and I think he should be in for another 300 yard passing game whether they win or lose.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Coach Shanahan’s running backs… I know. I can’t blame you even a little bit if you just refuse to start this guy but let’s take a look at Shanahan’s offenses historically. His best teams were with a mobile quarterback and a featured running back.  From John Elway and Terrell Davis to Jake Plummer with Clinton Portis/Reuben Droughns, Shanahan has always strived to set up an offense like the one he now has.  Griffen fits the mold of the big-armed mobile QB that he always wants to use but he will still be rough around the edges and Morris will carry the load to keep the offense on-track. There is still at minimum, a 35% chance that Morris gets just 5 carries this week but It’s a nice match-up vs the Rams and I’m willing to make that gamble because no back has ever gotten as many carries in a game as Morris did in week 1 for the Redskins with Shanahan at the helm.

Hate

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – I said all preseason that until I see something to indicate that Turner is declining, I won’t be expecting it.  I haven’t seen much of the game but just by looking at the stat-line, I can tell you that he just wasn’t given near the touches he used to.  Especially on the road.  Atlanta will look to bury Peyton in points this week at home and I think we need to downgrade Turner to a low-end RB2 or flex play for the time being. Don’t just bench him without much thought though… he’s still the lead back and will see a good amount of goal line work.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – I absolutely think the Steelers win this game, I just think it’s an ugly one.  I have no faith in the Jets offense because Sanchez has never really shown consistency before but their Defense is DEFINITELY the real deal.   They loosened up against Buffalo and allowed both yardage and points in junk-time but they won’t be running away with this one offensively so that won’t be an option.  If you drafted Ben, you almost certainly got yourself a very quality backup so this is a week to use him.

Kevin Ogletree, WR, DAL – Don’t overreact here.  You did a good thing picking him up but there is a plethora of receiving talent on his offense and he isn’t going to move up past the slot receiver for quite some time, no matter how well he does. We’ve likely seen his best game of the season and I don’t want to take a chance with him until he proves it wasn’t a fluke.

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, I’m just an idiot.  You may not have a choice but to play him anyways but don’t expect much against the Ravens defense.  McCoy will be just fine but I’m just no longer convinced that Vick is the same play-maker he was two years ago.  With his injury risk, you have a backup and should consider him this week (especially Cutler!)

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – The match-up is tough so he’s likely not a starter even if Mendenhall is out again.  If Mendenhall DOES play, he is a definite sit.

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So I am in three leagues that are my main focus and important to me. The first two are my money leagues, not a lot of cheddar but enough to keep people honest and active throughout the season. I feel bad that I have not given near as much content for my readers this off season and have decided to recap each of my drafts for those of you who have a late draft still scheduled.  I promise you all a much more thorough preseason next year and each year to follow.

Money League #1 – Big Jim’s League of Doom.

I am the commissioner of this league if you didn’t pick up on that by it’s name and I just drafted this team last night.  The scoring is pretty much standard except for the following:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-2 points per INT (usually 1)

+1 point for 100 yards rushing in a game (added)

+1 point for 150 yards rushing in a game (added)

+2 points for 200 yards rushing in a game (added)

I personally have always run my league with this scoring, I love the passing TD’s at 6 points and think that having a high rushing total on a game is hard to come by and worth some recognition on the score board for fantasy owners.

The league consists of my personal friends, some of their friends and some people who I am trying to introduce to the game because I think they would get a lot of enjoyment from it.

I was given the 6th pick in the first round and my team ended up as follows:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(6)	Tom Brady (NE – QB)
2.	(19)	Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
3.	(30)	Hakeem Nicks (NYG – WR)
4.	(43)	BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cin – RB)
5.	(54)	Antonio Brown (Pit – WR)
6.	(67)	Willis McGahee (Den – RB)
7.	(78)	Ben Tate (Hou – RB)
8.	(91)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
9.	(102)	LeGarrette Blount (TB – RB)
10.	(115)	Kendall Wright (Ten – WR)
11.	(126)	Randy Moss (SF – WR)
12.	(139)	Alshon Jeffery (Chi – WR)
13.	(150)	Buffalo (Buf – DEF)
14.	(163)	Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
15.	(174)	Jason Hanson (Det – K)

Brady was a no-brainer with the scoring for passing TDs.  I stayed true to my strategy of QB then RB in the first two rounds and went with Charles in the 2nd here. I am confident that he is back to full strength and think he will be back to his old self by the first game of the season.  Hakeem Nicks was #5 on my WR board at the time of the draft and with 10 other wide receivers already taken, I felt very fortunate to be left the option of Nicks with my third round pick.  Fred Jackson, Lynch and Peterson were still available at RB but with 8 picks between then and my round 4 pick, I was pretty sure I could get a suitable RB 2. This was a risky call that paid off for me but barely.  Only Law Firm remained on my list of guys that I was targeting at RB2 and I didn’t hesitate to scoop him up.  This guy has never fumbled in his career and the Bengals will just be feeding him the ball over 20 times in every game.  He is worth a play as an RB2 based solely off the opportunity that this many guaranteed touches will give him.

I was left with a tough choice for WR2 and to be honest, I betrayed my board by taking Brown over Jeremy Maclin with the 54th overall pick. They are right next to each other at the bottom of my top 20 but as I had already gotten Maclin in both of the leagues below I wanted to spread out my bets and go with Brown, who I did plan to target for my WR2 this year anyways.  I spent the next two picks on safe and consistent RB depth because I knew I could get some good WR options later on and felt that the value of McGahee and Tate were too high. With such a shallow pool of RB talent this season, to have 3 top 20 guys and 5 top 30 guys by the end, I feel that I am in great shape to make some trades.  I also feel really safe in the event that an early RB selection goes down to injury. A few of these guys will turn out to be viable RB2 or flex plays.

The rest of the first 12 rounds were spent on high upside sleeper WRs. I did miss Justin Blackmon but I got each of my other deep targets with Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery and Randy Moss. Any one of these guys has top 10 upside but in reality, if I could just pick up a quality WR2 to fill in for the injury prone Hakeem Nicks out of this group, my team will be stacked and poised for a deep playoff run.  I reached for Buffalo in the 13th round because I had them at 8 in my rankings after their impressive performance keeping Roethlisberger and the Steelers at bay simply by rushing the front four for almost an entire half. Daniels was also at the bottom of my top 10 TE’s and waiting on these two positions should prove very valuable to me as I was able to ensure I got all my sleeper picks and increased the chance that one of late round guys has a big year.

Money League #2 - Interweb Pigskin 2012.

For those of you who don’t know me personally, I am a reasonably competitive Magic: The Gathering player and joined a league commished by the owner of my local card shop.  The scoring is set up as standard with the following tweaks:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-3 points per INT (usually 4)

+1 point per reception

-2 points per FG missed 0-19 yards (added)

-1 points per FG missed 20-29 yards (added)

+3 points per defensive INT (usually 2)

+5 points per safety (usually 2)

+3 points per blocked kick (usually 2)

Here we go, nightmare announcement… 12th pick in the draft. =(.  Ok not really, this isn’t the worst spot you can be in so don’t panic.  Here is my logic on why I like drafting last more than anywhere else in the 2nd half of the first round; In almost every draft I do, someone takes a player in the first round who I do not think is worthy of a first round selection. No draft has ever followed my exact rankings for longer than 6 selections and I am always able to get two players who I have given a first round grade on.  Picking in round 7 or later just means that the elite talent has passed me by and now im taking a risk on someone with some substantial downside to keep him from being inside that top tier. If I must take that risk, I’d prefer to get two of them to make make it even more likely I have a top 5 scorer at the end of the season. Here is how it worked out for me in this one:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(12)	Matthew Stafford (Det – QB)
2.	(13)	Matt Forte (Chi – RB)
3.	(36)	Antonio Gates (SD – TE)
4.	(37)	DeMarco Murray (Dal – RB)
5.	(60)	Stevie Johnson (Buf – WR)
6.	(61)	Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
7.	(84)	Nate Washington (Ten – WR)
8.	(85)	C.J. Spiller (Buf – RB)
9.	(108)	LeGarrette Blount (TB – RB)
10.	(109)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
11.	(132)	Mario Manningham (SF – WR)
12.	(133)	Alshon Jeffery (Chi – WR)
13.	(156)	Toby Gerhart (Min – RB)
14.	(157)	Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buf – QB)
15.	(180)	Atlanta (Atl – DEF)

Another league with 6 points per passing TD means that a lot my QB’s are first round guys. Stafford was the 5th one taken and the last QB I think has the potential to lead this entire league in points. He has some injury risk so I made sure to draft a backup and decided to not take a kicker yet so that I can drop Gerhart should AP indeed make it back for week 1. I decided to go with Forte at the top of the second because of the PPR scoring. He is a lock at 4 in the rankings for PPR in my opinion and was a very safe pick this late with 4 other backs already gone.  Antonio Gates is as healthy as he has been in the past few seasons and the options that Rivers has left are not that strong.  Say what you want about Meachem but there is definitely not the same trust that he has with Gates and now that Tolbert is gone, Gates is by and far the best red zone threat for Rivers.  I wasn’t wild about my WR options and thought this would likely give me the best overall roster since I could get so many more quality receivers late.  DeMarco Murray is somewhat involved in the receiving game but really, he was just as good of an RB2 as I could have hoped for this late as he is 8th in my rankings for standard leagues and PPR only matters so much.

When I play in PPR leagues, I really try and avoid the big-play receivers. I can field a much more consistent team in this format by taking those receivers who are the primary 3rd down target for the team.  First was Stevie Johnson, who is the #1 guy for my Bills and Fitpatrick’s most trusted receiver over the past couple years.  He has had some issues with drops in some key plays but for PPR owners, Johnson is a very good WR2.  For me he will serve as my WR1 but he sat within three spots in my rankings from Jeremy Maclin at the time and I went ahead and scooped up Maclin with the very next pick. After two rounds of picks, I decided that I would get both a good WR and RB to split time in my flex spot throughout the season.  Both Nate Washington and C.J. Spiller are more valuable in a PPR format than they normally would be and I think they were solid choices for the 7th and 8th round. Spiller has not made much of his opportunities thus far but his physical abilities are not in question. He is a dynamic playmaker who just hasn’t put it together in the run game.  The Bills have Fred Jackson playing at an elite level so I expect Spiller to serve as the third down back in passing situations and I also expect them to do a fair amount of motioning him out of the backfield or just lining him up at receiver in certain situations to try and get him the ball with space.

As usual, I loaded up on deep sleeper WRs by taking Malcom Floyd, Mario Manningham and Alshon Jeffery late. I think Manningham is the most interesting PPR sleeper in the draft.  Rumor has it that he has been the hardest receiver to cover in training camp and as Alex Smith develops a report with him, it will be interesting to see how the targets get divided up. I will happily the upside of a top 15 WR in end of the 11th round.  Not the best draft ever but I will be a contender and with some smart moves, I could be a force to be reckoned with.

“Tailgating At Tha KRIB Podcast” League - GRIDIRON Dawgz

This is the league that was set up by @wcsteelerfan that consists of writers and experts in the wide world of sports. @buccos12 and myself co-host with @wcsteelerfan producing and playing with us is  @BoxingVoice_Vic @Pacman453323 @SethDaSportsMan as well as numerous others.  The league’s scoring and settings differed from standard leagues because of the following changes:

+6 points per passing TD (usually 4)

-2 points per INT (usually 1)

No more than 4 RB’s per team

No more than 4 WR’s per team

This draft was done live and on air by all of our league’s owners and you can listen to it right now on Blog Talk Radio. I was given the 2nd overall pick and here is how it went down:

Rnd #	Pick #	Selection
1.	(2)	Aaron Rodgers (GB – QB)
2.	(23)	Jamaal Charles (KC – RB)
3.	(26)	Adrian Peterson (Min – RB)
4.	(47)	Brandon Lloyd (NE – WR)
5.	(50)	Jeremy Maclin (Phi – WR)
6.	(71)	Beanie Wells (Ari – RB)
7.	(74)	Malcom Floyd (SD – WR)
8.	(95)	Toby Gerhart (Min – RB)
9.	(98)	Denarius Moore (Oak – WR)
10.	(119)	Baltimore (Bal – D/ST)
11.	(122)	Owen Daniels (Hou – TE)
12.	(143)	Carson Palmer (Oak – QB)
13.	(146)	New York (NYG – D/ST)
14.	(167)	Kellen Winslow (Sea – TE)
15.	(170)	Jason Hanson (Det – K)

Rodgers shouldn’t have made it to me even with the #2 pick so I was happy to add him. A #2 overall pick is very risky and Rodgers is a guy I am positive will return my expected value. Charles fell pretty far to me in the 2nd round and I followed him up with Peterson in the third, just 3 picks after I took Charles. Peterson has been coming back from injury faster than I thought he would and while I still expect that he will be slow to get back to his old self, he is pretty likely to see the field in week 1 from what I have heard thus far. Brandon Lloyd was a big get for me here as I think he easily has top 5 receiver potential in that offense. Brady will look for him and McDaniels will call his number.  Since I waited on WR and don’t really have a sure-fire WR1, I was pleased to get a sure-fire WR2 in Maclin.

My next two picks were unfortunate.  Many of us guys were not aware of the cap at four WRs and RBs. So I would very likely have taken a flier on a QB or reached on a lesser TE here rather than add Floyd and Wells to my squad.  I think both guys will do OK but they have very limited upside and I would have rather gone with a  couple of late-round sleepers. However after that, I was able to scoop up Gerhart to handcuff Peterson and he will provide me with some good insurance in case of injury.  I was able to get Denarius Moore to serve as my sleeper but I usually like to have 3 or 4 sleeper picks coming out of a draft.  From here on out I just ensured that I had backups for my QB, TE and D/ST as there was nothing better to do with these bench slots after I capped out at RB and WR.  If Adrian Peterson doesn’t get hurt again, I feel as though I am a lock for one of the top playoff seeds.  The roster requirements make us all a LOT more vulnerable to fantasy-season-ruining injuries but that increased risk isn’t specific to me so I like my odds to take home the bragging rights for this league.

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This year’s running back pool is… well… disgusting. Teams are trying to protect their investments (player salaries) by rotating a duo or trio of backs because they are just passing the majority of the time anyways and they can save some salary cap space by not needing to seek out and pay an elite talent in free agency. For this season’s draft, I am going to focus on the guys with the best chance at seeing the lion’s share of the workload.  Whether it be one member of a duo whose partner is injury prone or a new talent coming up behind an aging veteran.  I am generally not looking to draft anyone in a three-way time-share and while there are some players from these teams inside my top 50, I think avoiding any running backs from Washington, Carolina, New England or New Orleans is a VERY sound strategy. Let’s break them down by tier.

The Top 10

Ray Rice

Arian Foster

LeSean McCoy

 

 

I apologize for my deception but this are the guys who, in the past, are worthy of a top 10 ranking at the RB position.  There are so few teams that still focus on the running game first and even fewer that have a workhorse back.  These three guys are the only ones who are almost fool-proof picks worthy of a first round draft pick.

Ray Rice is both a workhorse and the focal point of the offense.  Joe Flacco has matured into an above average “game-manager” but the wide receiver talent is not quite up to par. Rice is a true three-down back who can run inside and outside the tackles. There is no reason that I can see for the Ravens to take him off the field other than he needs a breather. Because of this, he is the first non-QB on my draft board and my third overall ranked player.

Arian Foster has one minor “wart”. It’s name is Ben Tate. Tate is a young talent that sees enough carries to keep Foster from topping my preseason rankings. Foster is still certain to see the lion’s share of the work for the Houston offense that runs a vast majority of the time.  With Matt Schaub recovering from a foot injury and Andre Johnson barely able to make it on the field for half of the games, I would be astonished if Houston made a drastic change in their offensive philosophy and suddenly started airing it out. I don’t have a serious injury concern here either so Foster is another great first round selection.

The Philadelphia Eagles may have a plethora of talent on the offensive side of the ball but there is only one irreplaceable cog in the machine: LeSean McCoy.  Michael Vick has matured into more of a pocket passer but he has also maintained the ability to score any time he decides to scramble. This forces defenses to respect him at all times and this usually means that one of the 7 or 8 men in the box is not focused on McCoy over the first few seconds of the play.

Starters

Alright, there has to be a top 10 guys so here are the rest of them:

Matt Forte

Chris Johnson

Maurice Jones-Drew

Jamaal Charles

DeMarco Murray

Darren McFadden

Michael Turner

 

 

 

 

I generally do not want to have to pick from this group of players and would heavily consider looking to the available QBs, Tight Ends or Calvin Johnsons if you are considering one of these guys with your first round pick.  At least four of these guys have to go somewhere in the first round though, so I will focus on the guys I feel you should take a chance on should you be stuck in a tough spot when it’s your turn to pick.

The problem with Forte is that he just doesn’t get  many rushing touchdowns. He had just three all last season. Mike Martz’s offensive scheme really helps him to stay a consistent producer and I am not very scared of Michael Bush vulturing any scores from Forte… because he doesn’t get any.  Forte still had just shy of 1500 all purpose yards last year and was the 17th best running back. Impressive when you account for the fact that he didn’t really play after week 12.

Jamaal Charles is coming off of a torn ACL.  This is stereo-typically a death sentence for an NFL running back for the following season. I am willing to take a risk on him is because he is so young and his injury occurred in week 2.  This means that Charles will have less of a trip back to full speed than Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall, who each suffered the same injury. The other thing that I like about Charles is that he does not require a high volume of carries to be a great fantasy producer. I expect him to average 15 touches per game and if he plays all 16 games, he is a safe-bet to finish the year as the top 10 back you wanted when you drafted him.

Darren McFadden has one HUGE blemish on his record, injury risk.  McFadden has only played in 70% of the possible games throughout his career and last season, he only suited up for 7. Michael Bush has left town and left the workload to Run DMC.  The reason to take McFadden is that he is GOING to give you good production when healthy and he has the upside to be the number one RB at the end of the season, should the stars align and he plays in all 16 games.

Backups

Eleven through twenty in the rankings are the fantasy-backups, or RB2, in your standard league so here they are:

Marshawn Lynch

Steven Jackson

Frank Gore

Fred Jackson

Adrian Peterson

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Willis McGahee

Trent Richardson

Ahmad Bradshaw

Darren Sproles

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have I mentioned how bad the running back pool is this season?

Marshawn Lynch had a run-in with the law and is a likely candidate for a suspension. The worst-case scenario is 4 games in my eyes and the likely scenario is one or two games, if any. I have seen him crack the top 10 in plenty of rankings but as a Bills fan, I’ve been cheated by his flashes of brilliance before. He has to be considered at least an RB2 because he is the unquestioned starter and that gives him top 10 upside but I don’t expect the Seahawks to take too many steps forward this year and Lynch will likely be back to his inconsistent ways. I would look elsewhere, unless Lynch falls to the end of round 2 or somewhere in round 3.

Frank Gore is a guy that most people are staying far away from. They are expecting his production to fall off of a cliff this season and I agree that it will almost certainly NOT be increasing. The 9ers have more receiving options than in years past and Alex Smith showed some ability to move the ball down the field last season.  I believe that Gore still has some gas in the tank and he will be able to provide consistency to someone who might opt to follow my advice and go QB, WR and/or TE in the first few rounds and still needs their RB1 approaching the middle rounds.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a really interesting guy this year and I think he has an enormous opportunity ahead of him in Cincinnati. Cedric Benson was easily a top 20 guy during his time as a Bengal, almost entirely on the number of carries he would get per game.  Benson’s talents have not yet landed him a team on free agency and the law firm’s talents attracted the Bengals enough to drop Benson and sign him. My favorite law firm fact is that he has NEVER fumbled. Never. Thirty carries a game from an elusive runner with sure hands a nose for the end zone? Sign me up.

Trent Richardson is surrounded by a lot of hype right now and I don’t expect that having his knee scoped will really impact that.  A scope is not a very big deal for such a young guy and by week 2, Richardson should be at full speed.  He is the unquestioned starter for the Browns but I don’t think that I can muster up enough faith in Brandon Weeden extending drives on third and long to expect much more than 20 carries and 75 yards in a game before Cleveland has to abandon the running game completely.  I really like him as a third round pick because there is a chance that he is good enough to carry the offense or that Weeden is a legitimate Quarterback and provides some balance to the offense.  If either of these turn out to be true, he has a chance to be a top 5 guy but that makes him a late third round, early fourth round pick on my board and I think someone is going to reach for him sooner in almost every draft.

The Big Maybes

Because of how incredibly deep the wide receiver position is this year, you want to stock pile a fair few of these guys on your team and hope that you hit the jackpot. You can always just go and pick up a viable replacement receiver off the waiver wire should a need arise but an outside shot at a break out player is pretty darn valuable valuable in the later rounds of your draft.  These are the picks that decide championships so pay attention.

Ryan Mathews

Beanie Wells

Reggie Bush

Shonn Greene

Stevan Ridley

Ben Tate

Isaac Redman

Doug Martin

CJ Spiller

Peyton Hillis

Michael Bush

LeGarrette Blount

Roy Helu

Jonathan Stewart

Jahvid Best

Toby Gerhart

Donald Brown

Daniel Thomas

David Wilson

Mark Ingram

James Starks

Kevin Smith

Ryan Williams

Jonathan Dwyer

Brandon Jacobs

Delone Carter

Mike Goodson

Jacquizz Rodgers

Shane Vereen

Bernard Scott

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Mathews was much higher in my rankings last night before he broke his clavicle on the first play of the preseason opener Thursday night. This might be an over reaction as he should be just as swift on his feet when he returns. Early word has said that he will miss about two weeks of the regular season. How long until he is back on your I/R spot? I’m just going to steer clear this season.

A lot of negativity surrounds LeGarrette Blount and there has been nothing but positive words about Doug Martin. They are pretty close in my ranks for the preseason because I expect Martin to be the starter by week 4 or so but there will always be a time-share in place as long as they are both healthy.

Reggie Bush was the 12th highest scoring RB in fantasy last season.  I wrote him off last year and while my expectations are still conservative,  he is my 23rd ranked back.  The Dolphins will continue to involve him in the offense this season but with the QB question incredibly unanswered, I can’t feel comfortable with him as my RB2.

Peyton Hillis makes for a safe pick up late to fill out your roster in the last third of your draft. Charles isn’t going to get over 20 touches in a game and plenty of them will be in the passing game.  The Chiefs are definitely going to look to establish the run early and Hillis is going to be a big part of that. If Charles goes down or just misses a game or two, you might have a top 20 guy on your hands for those weeks.

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Matt Hasselbeck, QB, TEN – Active

Matt Moore, QB, MIA – Active

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – Inactive

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Active

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Active

James Starks, RB, GB – Active

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Active

Devin Hester, WR, CHI – Active

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – Active

Roy Helu, RB,  WAS – Inactive

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Inactive

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Active

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Love

Frank Gore, RB, SF – Teams have been beating up on the Rams all season with a punishing rushing game. Gore has yet to play against them yet this year but I have little doubt that he is able to end his slump this week.  The Rams are allowing an average of 159 yards per game to opposing running backs and while Kendall Hunter is bound to see a fair few carries as well, Gore is just about a lock for 100 yards.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – The Buccaneers are not as well-rounded as they were last year and Freeman has certainly been a part of the problem.  Fortunately, the Panthers defense fixes a lot of issues.  You should start all your typical Buccaneers in this game because Carolina can neither stop the run or the pass. If you need convincing, take a look at the stats the Colts had on offense last week.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – All the attention is on Cruz lately and Nicks has been very underwhelming this season but I think Nicks is the one due for a huge game. Green Bay is going to win, I am pretty damned sure of it but the Packers have the 31st ranked pass defense in the league and I still trust Nicks more than Cruz.  He is a superior red zone target and when it counts, Eli will look his way.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Law Firm has been a very inconsistent player this season and he isn’t totally to blame.  Three backs other than Green-Ellis saw at least 4 carries in the game last week for the Patriots and while Law Firm was by and far the leader with 14, it is incredibly frustrating to see as a Law Firm owner. Don’t sweat it this week against the Colts who can’t stop anyone on the ground.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – The Texans are going to have to dig deep to pull off a win against Atlanta this week.  I am not crazy about Johnson this week but Atlanta has a lights-out run defense and eventually, TJ Yates or not, the Texans will have to go to the air.  The only thing that will keep Johnson from producing is opportunity so if he can get a few targets, he will do something with them. I think AJ is a solid WR2 this week.

Hate

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – The Bills were actually competitive again and Fitz played really well against that Jets D. I’m not sold yet.  The injury report for Buffalo is a mile long and I don’t see them as a high-powered offense without Fred Jackson in the lineup. Make Fitzpatrick do it one more time before you take a gamble and start him with your season on the line.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Hanie played bad on Sunday and while I expect him to improve, I have no reason to expect Knox to put up near the same numbers.  Watching the game last week showed that Knox was on fire and clearly the Bears’ best playmaker but after such a disappointing season I want to see him do it a couple of times before I start to buy in to it. Leave him on the bench.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – The Texans offense essentially runs through Foster and Tate now but the Falcons have absolutely been shutting down opposing running backs.  You have to start Foster regardless this week but I think he is going to be hard pressed to manage over a hundred yards. Lower expectations and hope for the best this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – The Vikings really made an effort to get the ball in the hands of Harvin with Peterson sidelined.  Unfortunately the Broncos defense has been playing great in recent weeks and Harvin is not very likely to have a repeat performance.  His speed and skill in the open field mean that you should be starting him in your flex spot anyways but I don’t expect a lot of open space in this game.

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Studs

Bears, D/ST, CHI – I don’t think very many people expected a one-sided game between the Lions and Bears. Three defensive and/or special teams TDs for the Bears was unexpected and how this game got out of hand.  Chicago has one of them defenses that you should probably just start regardless of match-up and that strategy paid off this week.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Bush was just an absurd play-maker on Thursday night as he torched the Chargers defense for 157 rushing yards on 30 carries as well as 85 yards receiving. Bush only found the end zone once but still scored 29 points and was the 2nd highest scoring back for fantasy owners in week 10.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – Usually I don’t put the elite guys at each position in my Studs list when they perform like elite guys at their position… The difference this time is that John Skelton was at QB and Fitz still was able to haul in 7 catches for 146 yards and 2 scores.  No matter who is at QB for Arizona, you have to start Fitz.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – If you had told me in the preseason that I would be surprised that CJ put up 23 fantasy points against the Panthers , I would think you were crazy. I don’t think that we should be overly impressed here or expect some big turn around.  The Panthers defense is riddled with injuries and most of CJ’s stats came at the end of the game, when the Panthers were exhausted and had for all intensive purposes given up. CJ is still just an RB2 or flex play.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA – He’s made me look foolish in the past but I am going to be pretty high on Lynch for a few weeks to come.  These past two games are the first back-to-back 100 yard rushing performances of Lynch’s entire career and with zero scary match ups until Chicago in week 15, Lynch may be in for a VERY big second half.  For now I would only be using him as a low-end RB2 to protect yourself from his inconsistency.

Duds

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – What the hell Buffalo… With a soft secondary, you can’t get anything done through the air? Your number one receiver has zero fantasy points?  Buffalo played like complete crap and its time to reel back in all the love for this offense.  Steve is a flex play and Fitz is barely a QB2 anymore.  The only person you can start reliably and without pause is Fred Jackson.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – Sproles had been phenomenal for the Saints this season and even though they got the win in OT against the Falcons, Atlanta COMPLETELY shut down the run.  Sproles, Thomas and Ingram ALL were just awful in this game.  I don’t think this means anything about the Saints’ backs but remember this when you have one of your other backs going up against the Falcons.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Speaking of duds… VJax got out-shined in a big way by rookie Vincent Brown and specifically Jackson gave up on a long pass into the end zone and did not even challenge the two receivers for the jump-ball.  Even if you lost it in the sun, you jump when they do and try to swat it away. Jackson had a terrible game and I am worried about how consistent he can be this season on this offense.  I am thinking of him as a WR2 unless its a favorable match-up from now on.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Pats tore the Jets to shreds and I am surprised that the Law Firm wasn’t even involved late to close out the game.  He is just a flex play at best due to the committee system and his inconsistency even when he gets the touches. Look to find someone to replace him asap if you are relying on him.

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