This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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If anyone can upset the Cowboys to win the division it’s the Giants.  They are a very streaky team in recent years and it is hard to trust many of their players from a fantasy standpoint.  If they can find someone on their roster that can be effective while handling a heavy workload at the running back position they have a serious chance to make the playoffs at least as a wild card.   Look for Hakeem Nicks to have a breakout performance this season and vault himself to the number 1 on the team.  I had Nicks pegged as a sleeper before the season ending injury to Domenik Hixon but now that is a no-brainer. He is a promising young talent that will make the most out of every snap.

Top Fantasy Players

Brandon Jacobs – I very much so dislike this guy, and not just in fantasy football.  Jacobs is a big guy that should be much more effective between the tackles.  If last year’s stats did not scare you away from this guy, then I don’t know what will.  I believe that by the end of the year Ahmad Bradshaw will end up being the feature back for the Giants.

Eli Manning – There is no consistency from this team and without a steady running game to be concerned with defenses should be able to contain Eli and the passing attack.  Do not be fooled into thinking he is a good option for your number one fantasy QB.

Steve Smith – If there continues to be a lack of an effective running game, Smith could have production issues. If Bradshaw or Jacobs can give the offense balance again Smith could end up being a bargain pick for your 2nd WR.

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Love

Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace (PIT) – With a bad Browns team having a short week to prepare, and with receiver Hines Ward unlikely to play, Thursday night should be a big game for the two would-be starting receivers.

Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Robert Meachem (NO) – The Falcons have a pretty bad passing defense ranked 29th in the league and go against the best Offense in football lead by Drew Brees.  Brees’ favorite targets include receivers Colston and Meachem who will be creating mismatches in the secondary all day long.  Colston is a WR1 this week and Meachem is a great WR3 or flex play!

Andre Johnson (HOU) – Seahawks rank 25th against the pass and should be in over their heads on Sunday vs Johnson and the Texans.  Also a heavier emphasis will be placed on the passing game with Steve Slaton placed on IR.

Jamaal Charles (KC) – The Bills are dead last against the run and Charles has a 4.8 yards per carry average!  He is a must start at RB this week!

Terrell Owens (BUF) – Owens has been a part of the Bills offense since Perry Fewell took over as interim head coach.  The Chiefs are 28th in the league against the pass and wont be likely to contain TO and Evans.

Jets (D/ST) – The Buccaneers are pretty bad this year as you know.  Last week Freeman threw 5 interceptions against the Panthers.  The Jets will dominate this game on defense and play ball control on offense.

Vince Young, Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt (TEN) – The Rams are a great match-up for anyone, and the Titans are still red hot even though they lost last week (it was the Colts, you didn’t expect it anyways).  Rebound week for Vince Young!

Phillip Rivers (SD) – Rivers has been very productive and mistake-free the past few weeks even with the statistical absence of Vincent Jackson.  You cannot expect this lack of production to continue for Jackson and that only stands to improve Rivers’ production even more.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – Best receiver in the league versus the 27th ranked passing defense.

Hate

Bruce Gradkowski (OAK) -You may have picked him up for a deep format but the Skins can only defend the pass, so this is not the week to try to use him.

Antonio Bryant (TB) -If Bryant was on a winning team with a real QB he would be a household name and he would really be something special to watch.  He’s not, he gets his passes thrown to him by a rookie and he plays the top passing defense in the league.  Sit him!

Jerome Harrison (CLE) -Like Gradkowski, you picked him up for other weeks, not this match-up sit him down this week.

Kevin Smith (DET) -Hard to imagine the Lions getting much done on offense against the Ravens.  I wouldn’t trust Smith enough for a playoff start this week.

Devin Hester and Matt Forte (CHI) – You got a decent week from Forte so don’t think it’s the start of something.  You need to have multiple productive weeks to get trust in fantasy football, not one versus a squishy match-up.  The Packers have been playing pretty well as of late and should roll right over the Bears.  Oh, and Hester was on my dump-list a couple weeks ago…. please do yourself a favor and ditch him!

Matt Cassel and Chris Chambers (KC) – The Bills passing defense has been about the only bright spot throughout the season.  If the Chiefs are going to win it will be on the back of Jamaal Charles and not the arm of Matt Cassel.

Frank Gore (SF) – The 9ers offense has gone the way of the pass as Alex Smith matures in that offense.  The Cardinals looked like Super Bowl contenders last week and the 49ers are struggling.  I don’t like any 49ers this week.

Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – Jacobs has been terrible, the only game he was any good for you was when he had a 74 yard screen pass.  It’s time to find his replacment (it was time a month ago actually).

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Brad

Pick 2 (PPR/PPC League) Mendenhall vs. Oak, Jacobs vs. Dal, Charles vs. Den, Forsett vs. SF, McCoy @ Atl, and Wells vs. Min

Mendenhall is a given versus the Oakland run defense, in my eyes, and I was leaning towards Jacobs vs. Dallas because both Bradshaw and their 3rd string RB may be unable to play, leaving Jacobs with a bulk of the carries.

What do you think?

I gotta disagree with ya here Brad, I think Charles and McCoy are better options for you.  McCoy is a solid RB2 down the stretch till Westbrook comes back, and Charles has been on a tear as of late and I don’t foresee his production getting any worse this week!  McCoy is the safest play, and Charles is the guy if you need a big game!

Ed T

I am in a 12 team no PRR league and trying to get into playoffs with an important match-up.  Any advice on setting my line up would be highly appreciated.

QB’s – V. Young against Indy or J. Flaco against Green Bay or A Smith against Seattle.

RB’s – 1) J. Addai, against TItans 2) S. Slaton against Jacksonville 3) J. Stewart against Tampa Bay 4) J. Charles against Denver 5) R. Mendenhall against Raiders 5) J. Forsett against 49ers

WR’s 1)R. White against Eagles 2)Derek Mason against Green Bay or 3) Randy Moss against Miami

TE – D. Clark against Titans

Def – Steelers against Raiders

I need 2 RB’s 2 WR’s and a FLex RB

Thanks in advance!!!!

QB – Flacco is a no go given the quality of the GB secondary as of late not to mention his inconsistancy.  Young is a solid option, but with a tough match-up I don’t think he is your best bet. Smith plays a soft defense and has plenty of weapons, he is your guy this week.

RB1 – J Addai’s been very consistent and he’s the guy your going to need.

RB2 – Rashard Mendenhall is your best bet with Big Ben likely not be the focal point coming off his concussion and versus a SOFT rushing D

WR1 – REVENGE! The Patriots are looking for it and they wont stop scoring till time runs out.

WR2 – Backup QB or not Roddy White is the most talented guy you’ve got and will probably be facing man coverage while the Eagles blitz heavy to confuse the back up.

Flex – J Charles has been a BEAST lately, ride that wave!all set on TE and D/ST so good luck buddy!

MyZou

Should I start Cedric Benson or Pierre Thomas? Adrian Peterson is my other RB.

Benson all the way here buddy, i’m currently riding these two backs into the playoffs with a bye week already locked down. Hope you were able to have as much success! Benson was held out last week as mostly as a precaution, he is at 100% and is set for a big game. Don’t value him any differently because of the injury. It wasn’t bad and they just didn’t need him at all banged up going into the playoffs.  I wouldn’t value Benson any differently than you did before he got hurt, he is still a top10 guy.

JoshG

Avant or Mason?

Start Indy or Balt for defense?

Avant for sure, much bigger upside and he’s is facing the 27th ranked passing defense!  I’d have to say go with Baltimore due to their play making ability. It is very possible that both teams have 28 points scored on them, but Baltimore seems more likely that they have a defensive score or even possibly two. Ravens are ranked near number 10 this week and the Colts are around 15th.

Brett

I’m starting Ray Rice and Matt Forte, but if Deangelo Williams is out on Sunday, do I swap Jonathan Stewart for Forte?

If Williams is INACTIVE then yes, if they say he’s got a decreased role that could be BS and just start Forte since his match-up is so good.

Eddie

Should I play Santonio Holmes or Jason Avant?

Avant, he has been vulturing big plays from Jackson and Maclin lately anyways, now he’s going to be used a lot more often.

That is it for this weeks columns folks, stay tuned on game-day for injury updates as well as a link to my live Q&A on game-days!

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Titans @ Colts – I am so excited to sit down and watch this game Sunday,  it is hard to think that we can even be talking about this match up when one team is 11-0 and the other started 0-5, but how can we not?! We are about to have sooooo many questions answered about Vince Young and his red hot Titans.  I cannot expect the Titans to win it, but what if they do!? We would not be able to argue that they weren’t SUPER BOWL contenders let alone playoff bound.  The Colts have not displayed the Dominance that the Saints have but they are winning every game on the fortitude and genius of Manning.  But what about the Fantasy Relevance of the players?  Wayne and Manning are auto starts, and Addai has been so productive you probably don’t have a better option for your RB2 spot so no worries there.  Garcon is a flex play or a WR3 if your league starts that many, and he should get more credit for how well he does in that offense.  On the other side of the ball Young is not really a good fantasy option here unless it’s a 2 QB league or you’re counting on someone who ends up inactive, but I think Kenny Britt is the most relevant Titan this week.  He is an interesting flex play here as if the Titans win Britt will find the end zone.  No question CJ is the home run hitter, but you cannot stay in a ball game with Peyton Manning unless you get big plays from your passing game.

Eagles @ Falcons – Both teams are suffering some key injuries that really rob us of an even better match-up, however both teams are also fighting to make the Playoffs and the Falcons realistically can’t lose with back-up QB Redman taking the snaps and a week after rushing Michael Turner back too fast and causing him to re-injure his ankle.  The Eagles are missing starting RB Westbrook and start WR Jackson both with concussions.  White had decent production with Redman last weekend so I do not downgrade him too much, just some for the match-up.  The win here for the Eagles will give them the inside track to the Wild Card round and keep them in the hunt for the division.  I am very unsure about the Falcons RB situation this week, Snelling got minimal work and Norwood looked pretty good, so I am expecting a time share between the two making it a coin flip for who is the better start.  Eagles WRs Avant and Maclin both see big upside as they are facing a very soft Falcons secondary that ranks among the worst in the NFL.  Both WRs were active in the passing game even with Jackson in the lineup so McNabb will have little issues getting used to them.  McCoy has done very well as a fill in for Westbrook and remains a solid RB2 start till Westbrook comes back and takes some snaps away from him.

Cowboys @ Giants – Alright readers it’s December so we all know what that means!  Snow falling on Sundays, Fantasy Football playoffs are here, Egg Nog, and absurd amounts of terrible QB play in Dallas.  Romo is facing a division rival in the month of December so I don’t much like the Cowboy’s chances here, but for the sake of Fantasy Football I remind you all once again to have a very short memory!  All we care about is the last three weeks really, and while that’s not that good for Romo I think it levels out your expectations and gives him a chance to meet them.  Miles Austin is slated to have a big game and I agree, the only other player with upside around that city right now is Felix Jones as they are finally using him as the home run hitter he ought to have been all season.  Bottom line is that we get to watch the Cowboys make the playoffs this month or we get to watch the melt down and find a new head coach and starting QB in the off season, great entertainment either way.  As for the Giants, Eli wasn’t anyone’s starting QB at this point in the season anyways but with his foot injury we need to downgrade the wide outs a little bit.  Jacobs has been a huge disappointment so far and productivity from him would help this team down the stretch tremendously.  Unfortunately Jacobs has shown none of the talent he did last season and I have no reason to expect anything to improve.

Vikings @ Cardinals – Hard not to get excited about two playoff bound teams meeting at the end of the season, it’s a preview of coming attractions!  Warner has come back to limited participation in practice Wednesday but is still splitting the snaps with Leinart in case he cannot go.  Options in Warner’s place if he doesn’t go are Alex Smith and Vince Young.  Tough match-up for the Duo of Cardinals RBs this week, you should find a better option.  Peterson had an off game and had pretty bad production until the Vikes were putting the game on ice late with the running game.  Favre remains a trusted start this week as I do not think the Cards can with stand the balanced attack the Viking offense has this season.  I think Minnesota is stronger in all three phases of the game and should win impressively.

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Love

The Seahawks! – against the Rams, who love to give up big points to the passing game.  Forsett will have a huge game too!

Jason Snelling – he is no Michael Tuner, but he’ll do! ESPN is projecting 123 yards and two TD’s I won’t go that far but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did it!

Marion Barber – Raiders are terrible and Barber will be the workhorse to get this offense back on track.

Michael Crabtree – Look at what Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to do to this Jaguars defense.  I expect Crabtree’s second consecutive game with a TD.

Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco – Two studs at their position against a team that let the Lions score at will, gotta like the odds!

LeSean McCoy – He looked great last week and should have a monster game versus a soft run D that is also the top passing D.

Ricky Williams – Bills did contain MJD pretty well last week but that is the only back all season that they can say that about.  Trust the history more than the single performance! (for all Bills players!)

Brandon Jacobs – Ahmad Bradshaw was on crutches tuesday and now has two injured feet!  Jacobs will be the primary back again… If he wants to keep his career going he needs to step it up.  I think he will!

Hates

T.O. – Phins are too good on D to trust the inconsistency at QB

Matt Forte – great run D and unless he gets it done in the air he shouldnt do much at all!

Matt Shaub – Coach Kubiak keeps ruining this team by taking away thier balance.  Without a running game they cannot be successful, and CHRIS BROWN GOT MOST THE CARRIES?! Over Slaton!? Insanity!

Pierre Thomas – This should be a shootout, and Thomas doesn’t get the goal line carries.

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