No Comments »

Love

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – Wells has had a very solid season in spite of some injuries.  When he has been in there, his production can not be denied. He did have a bad week in week 14 but everyone has against San Francisco this season and I am ready to look past it. Joe Haden will be locked up on Larry Fitzgerald, limiting his impact on the game significantly. Arizona is likely going to get another win this week on the back of Wells.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – With Greg Jennings on the sidelines for this coming game, Rodgers will be sure to look towards Jordy Nelson and all the rest of his receivers a bit more often.  The match-up is pretty good against the Chiefs and while we may see the starters on the bench by the 4th quarter again but I think all your Packers are good for a start this week regardless.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – There is no softer secondary in the NFL than New England’s.  Tebow is very unlikely to get a win this week but I do think he is very likely to have his highest fantasy point total of the season anyways.  Denver’s grind-it-out offense almost definitely can’t outscore the Pats and Brady but they will limit their production and keep it competitive.  This could be a 350+ yard passing day for the promising second year QB.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – The Bengals are on a two game losing streak and are looking to cling to their playoff hopes, which are fading fast, against the league’s worst rush defense. They should have little trouble righting the ship against the Rams, who have been inept all season and especially on defense. Benson is sure to play a big role in this game and is a must-start this week for your playoff match up.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – I expect Miami to focus on the ground game early on and it should be effective against the Bills’ soft defense that has really missed Kyle Williams since he went on IR. This is going to open up the passing game and Marshall should have little trouble racking up stats, especially since Buffalo stopped forcing all the turnovers they were able to cause early in the year.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL – With DeMarco Murray on IR, the running game is now in the hands of Felix.  He handled himself well with a good match up last week and has another this week against the Buccaneers, who have allowed an average of 23.5 yards per game to opposing RBs.  You shouldn’t expect him to top 20 but it is possible and he will do just fine for a play as an RB2 this week.

Hate

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – He has had a disappointing season and plays the 9ers this week, who are by and far the best rush defense in the league. He fell outside my top 20 so don’t hesitate to put him on your bench if you have better options.

Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ – I am down on both of the Jets’ receivers this week due to the depth of the Eagles’ secondary. With Vick back the Eagles offense is able to stay on the field more and limit opportunities against their defense too.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – Houston may be without some of their most important offensive weapons but their defense is still in-tact and playing great. The Panthers’ running backs have been thoroughly un-impressive this season and that is not likely to change with such a tough match up in front of them.  Lower expectations on all Panthers this week.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – He rebounded slightly last week but it wasn’t a huge performance and he is on Revis Island this week.  He might draw some added coverage from Antonio Cromartie because Cromartie is slightly better defending vertical routes, which Jackson runs more often than not.

No Comments »

No Comments »

No Comments »

Studs

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Of all the people I expected to carry the Lions to victory on Sunday, Smith was not one of them.  20 touches racked up 201 yards on the game for Smith and we have to be careful not to over react to this performance.  Smith needs to be owned in every league and just might be an RB2.  He is certainly going to rank as a flex play immediately but we have to look seriously at the match up before we trust him with the season on the line.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – I am not sure how much of Nelson’s success is because of Aaron Rodgers and I am not sure how much I care either. At least once a game, every game, Nelson blows the top off of the coverage on his side of the field and no one is playing QB better than Aaron Rodgers.  There is no reason to expect Nelson to stop having at least one big reception in each game.  He has even been more consistent than Jennings, he just doesn’t have more upside.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – None of the Browns RBs have played as well as Ogbonnaya did this week.  I am still very wary of exactly how effective he will be the rest of the way but he has to be owned and could be worth a flex start depending on the match up.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – The emergence of Damian Williams did what I expected it to… open up the field for Nate Washington to be more effective.  The depth chart still shows Washington at #1 but I think defenses are more concerned with Williams getting deep and coverage showed this on Sunday.  Washington had a lot of room to run his routes and get open and if Williams can find a way to keep the focus of opposing defenses, Washington could settle in as a solid WR2 for the playoffs.

Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Who would have thought that the Raiders wouldn’t even miss Darren McFadden? Not me. Bush has been unbelievable since run DMC went down and the Raiders have said that McFadden WILL NOT come back until he is 100% and while his fantasy owners might not want to hear that, Bush’s do.  Bush has been a workhorse and was again this week with 30 carries, over 100 yards and a score. That’s top-end RB2 material there.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – He might not be consistent but as we get into the playoffs, people need to throw a “hail mary” and put in a guy like Smith on the chance he has a big game.  Most leagues have “that team” that tops the entire league in scoring almost every week and it takes big-play threats like Smith to take down “that team”.  Smith is very ownable and very start-able as a flex play. If you are “that team” stick to your consistent producers that have gotten you there.

Duds

Greg Jennings, WR, GB – He got banged up in this game and missed some time but he did come back into this game.  He only caught two passes for 6 yards.  That is zero points for Rodgers’ top receiver.  I don’t think that will happen again this year.  I am not concerned but this game was a huge disappointment.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – I don’t care how bad the match up is, Mathews is supposed to be at least an RB2.  If you started him, you will agree that 2 points is NOT enough. Losing the fumble doesn’t help but if he loses the trust of Norv Turner and the Chargers’ coaching staff, his opportunities will continue to drop.  He has to turn it around fast to salvage his value.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – Wonder why I jumped off the Bills’ bandwagon so fast? This team was never a playoff-caliber team, they were just playing as a team and above their talent level. Injuries are not why they have lost the past three games but they just might be why they lose the next 6. Except for Miami and Denver in weeks 15 and 16, the Bills’ schedule is intimidating and those two games aren’t cake walks.  We saw what Miami can do against this team and Tebow just keeps winning. Johnson is down to a flex play and will fall quickly if he can’t be productive despite the teams’ short-comings.

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – He clearly was not himself on Thursday night but the extra rest should serve him well going into their week 12 match up. I would still count him as an RB2 as so much of that offense has to be run on the ground.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – This zero point outing was baffling for me.  The one saving-quality of Matt Moore is that he trusts his top receiver and gets him the ball.  He looked like Tom Brady against Buffalo this past week and yet his top receiver did almost nothing.  I don’t think you should worry about Marshall going forward, he is a low-end WR1 or great WR2 the rest of the season.

1 Comment »

Question 1: Asked by Zach

Hey so with Schuab being out the rest of the season (most likely) how do you think this affects Andre Johnson?  I Remember Fitzgerald delt with a bad QB and went from a #1 WR to a #2 WR last season… of course they did not have a huge running game like Houston but still, should I worry at all about AJ going forward?  I am in a PPR league.

Answer

You certainly should be worried but I wouldn’t lose sleep over it. You mentioned how Fitzgerald slid last season and I think that is the worst case scenario.  On pure talent alone I do not see him dropping below WR 2 status, no matter how poorly Matt Leinart plays. The two-headed attack of Foster and Tate will clearly be the primary focus of opposing defenses and this should lead to a few deep passes throughout the game.  There really isn’t anyone else with the deep threat capability of Johnson on the Texans roster, so he should be good for a decent yardage total and a score in most every game the rest of the way.

Question 2: Asked by @UofMnumber1Fan

Brandon Marshall or Denarius Moore at WR2?

Answer

I write a lot of cautions against the Raiders’ receivers ever since I started this site and while Moore has admittedly looked really good this season and even with Palmer, I don’t think you can afford to bench Marshall here.  He has been targeted a lot recently and has really started to develop a chemistry with Matt Moore. Last season I wrote about how Matt Moore was able to make Steve Smith a viable fantasy option in Carolina because even though he is NOT a very good QB, he trusts in his top guy and gives him an opportunity to make plays.  The Bills secondary has allowed a lot of yardage all season and with Reggie Bush providing a rushing threat that is worth paying attention to, Marshall will have his chance to make a big play this week.

Question 3: Asked by @Shaban09

Let’s say vick’s out. Do I go with Bradford or V. Young?

Answer

With how mediocre Bradford’s play has been this season I have to say you should play Young.  Philly’s offense is VERY QB friendly and if you remember the recent past, Kevin Kolb was always able to put up good fantasy production as a fill-in. The Eagles just pass so much that the numbers are bound to show up by the end of the game and the Eagles will be able to keep a very similar playbook to what it is when Vick is out there.  In standard leagues, I don’t think Bradford is an own-able QB.

No Comments »

No Comments »

Love

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – The Eagles face a stout defense that will need to spend a TON of time on the field this Sunday. Last week, the Bears drew up a blueprint for how to beat Joe Webb. They were very effective at disguising pressure and forcing Webb to make mistakes. With the ballhawks in the secondary for the Eagles, don’t be surprised to see a blow out come from this Sunday night game.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Isn’t it the law that I have to love running backs against the Bills?  It should be!  Despite having a decent performance last week against the Dolphins, the Bills run D is still ranked 32nd in the league.  Don’t expect the Pats to look past Buffalo either, especially not after such a narrow escape against Matt Flynn and the Packers.

Mike Wallace, WR, PIT – The Steelers are likely to obliterate the Panthers this week at home on Thursday night. Wallace is a huge part of their vertical passing game and should see his share of targets early on in the game.  If he is not able to haul one in before it gets out of hand Wallace owners could be in trouble, but I don’t think the Panthers will be able to cover him with any consistency.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Except for in Week 14 against the Redskins, Blount has been a major contributor against each below average defense the Buccs have faced since he took over the starting job.  Despite breaking the road game losing streak for the Lions last week, look for the Buccaneers’ young core group of players to rebound strong and be able to produce offensively.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – There is a lot going for Ryan here.  He beat the Saints on the road earlier in the season and he is a much more efficient and productive QB at home.  The Saints offense will score points and force Ryan to air it out plenty in this game and he should be able to produce a quality outing for fantasy owners regardless of whether they win or lose.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – The Broncos face the Texans this week, who are on pace to be the worst pass defense in NFL history.  While Tebow scares me some, his ability to run will force defenses to stay honest and Lloyd was targeted enough last week to maintain some value going into your Super Bowl.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – The Titans play the Chiefs this week who are allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground.  I think we can all agree that Johnson is better than the average running back and with Kerry Collins able to move the ball effectively through the air, you shouldn’t be shy about playing your first round draft pick.

Hate

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Since the Bye week, Moreno has been a picture of consistency.  Last week he got hurt and was not able to finish the game.  If somehow this didn’t knock you out of the playoffs, stay away from Moreno this week.  Tebow will be running a little more and these carries will be taken from Moreno.  Couple that with his sore ribs and he is just a little bit too risky for my liking this week.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL – Boldin has really only had one good game this season and it was a 3 TD outing against the same opponent that the Ravens face this week.  With his incredible lack of consistency, there is no reason you should risk starting him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF – I expect this to a be a one-sided affair and the Bills are clearly not who I anticipate winning.  He is a solid QB2 play, but there are better options for standard leagues.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – Many teams would not be able to recover from the crushing defeat that the Giants suffered last week.  It is tough not to be mentally affected by a let down like that and since Aaron Rodgers is looking to return in time for this week’s game, they would have their hands full under the best of circumstances.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – Marshall has TDs in consecutive games for the first time all year and just caught 11 passes last week against what was the league’s 4th ranked defense.  With that said, after a long disappointing season the odds are pretty bad that he is able to put together another quality performance even with his very nice match up. Consider him a flex play at best this week.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – You’re still going to need to start him because of his involvement in the passing game, but lower expectations of Forte this week as he faces the Jets.  Their injuries have weakened their front 7, but the Jets’ blitzing scheme is still among the best in the league.  If Forte is to be successful he will need to break a fair few tackles in the backfield.

No Comments »

Love

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - I have used this stat a lot, but it stays relevant so here it is again: McFadden has gotten 100 yards from scrimmage in all but two starts this season and one of them was against the Steelers.  The players that perform consistently all season are the ones you should be using in the playoffs.  DMC also has a great match up against the Broncos who are the 31st ranked rush defense in the NFL, who allow an average of 150 yards per game.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – With the Saints as opponents next week, we should expect to see the Ravens attack New Orleans on the ground.  The Greg Williams blitzing scheme has been disrupting the timing of opposing QBs all season and when you have such a talented backfield with Rice, McClain and McGahee… there is little reason to not attempt to control the clock and run the ball as much as possible.  If the Saints are able to build an early lead, then this will all go out the window and the Ravens will go to the air.  IF you didn’t know Rice is pretty good at catching the ball out of the back field.

Mike Williams, WR, TB - I expect a good bounce-back game for Williams who was shut down last week.  Arrelious Benn is developing into another vertical threat for the Buccs offense and he will force the Lions’ depleted secondary to single cover Williams who should be able to get deep and find the end zone at least once.  Another nice thing to note here, is that the Lions seem to be competitive in every game they play.  This will keep Williams and the passing game relevant deep into the fourth quarter.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL - The Jason Garrett-led Dallas Cowboys have found an element of their offense that did not exist when Wade Phillips was running the show… the run game.  Tashard Choice has proven to be a versatile weapon with his ability to run between the tackles, as well as his speed through the hole.  Jones is the guy they look to get the ball to in open space and because of this, he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.  With the run-game being effective lately, his touches have increased and that is all that Jones will need to be a quality flex-starter for fantasy owners, opportunity!

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND - The Jaguars corner backs have been terrible this season, they allow big plays and are unable to cover physical receivers in a one on one scenario.  Wayne should have a good game as well, despite drawing double teams and safety help over the top, but Garcon should be left isolated on the other side of the field.  Coming off a big game, look for Pierre to catch at least 8 passes, totaling 80 yards and a score.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – The Texans pass defense has been terrible this season, they are on pace to be the worst in NFL history and even with Kerry Collins at QB, Britt should do just fine.  Keep in mind that, before his injury, Collins was the QB for Britt’s HUGE game back in week 7.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – After watching Alex Smith tear the Seahawks’ secondary to shreds last week, I have a lot of confidence in White this week.  Matt Ryan never plays that well on the road and outdoors, but he doesn’t need to play well to get White a great fantasy performance this week.  There is no one that can cover him one-on-one if they don’t at least provide safety help over the top, they will be burned by a big play.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG – With the outstanding performances of both Jacobs and Bradshaw in recent weeks, fantasy owners can NOT leave either guy on the bench any longer.  Jacobs will be the first to see a drop off in production, when opposing defenses figure out how to shut them down… but I don’t expect that to happen this week against the Eagles.  Philadelphia’s defense has two VERY important players on it, Stewart Bradley and Asante Samuel.  Bradley will be out for the remainder of the regular season (at least) and Samuel has missed the past three games.  If Samuel does not come back, expect the Giants to win… but without Bradley, the Eagles are not likely to stop the run with any consistency.

Hate

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - Last week Crabtree was a non-factor in the 49er offense and they got a great game from Alex Smith.  This week they face the Chargers, who lose games only because of abysmal special teams play.  Their defense has been fantastic all season and have only allowed an average of 13 points per week to opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – The Bills have the 4th ranked pass defense in the league and despite finding the end zone last week, he has performed FAR under everyone’s expectations.  He is no longer a viable fantasy-starter and should be reserved for your flex spot at best.  Don’t take a chance on him this week when common sense dictates the Dolphins will be running whenever possible.

Ladainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ - It is tough to start any Jets offensive players, except possibly Santonio Holmes.  Against Pittsburgh, there just won’t be any big plays and field goals are likely to decide this one. I know he is a large part of the reason you made the playoffs, but he is simply too risky to play this week.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - I would hate to do it, but I would still have to start Peterson this week.  You have to lower expectations as the Vikings offense has had little success lately, but Peterson remains the most complete and talented running back in the league.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – The Packers run defense has been great and Clay Matthews is my favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, but this is another situation where you will likely need to start him anyways.  The Patriots have been fantastic the past two weeks, decimating playoff teams and smart money is, they will be able to produce on offense no matter who their opponent is.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – Last week is enough to plummet the values of every Denver Bronco for fantasy purposes, with one exception… Knowshon Moreno.  Studesville was not able to lead an offense that could produce at all against the Arizona Cardinals.   Oakland has a quality secondary and should have few problems shutting down Orton and Lloyd.

No Comments »

Well this week we really only have a couple of Washington Redskins that are questionable and both Ryan Torain and Santana Moss will be active!

The Late Game players to watch are:

Antonio Gates, TE, SD

Ben Obomanu, WR, SEA

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – Active

Legedu Naanee, WR, SD

Mike Williams, WR, SEA

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD

No Comments »