Pickups

David Nelson, WR, BUF – He should have been picked up already, but he hasn’t been in the vast majority of leagues. Let’s face it, he is the real deal. He will catch a lot of balls for owners in PPR leagues and in this suddenly explosive Bills offense, he will rack up plenty of yardage and TD’s too. GO GET HIM OFF WAIVERS RIGHT NOW.  After beating New England to sit alone at 3-0 atop the AFC East, people will not be dismissing the Bills as a fluke anymore.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith caught his first three NFL passes early on in the first quarter. All of them were TDs.  What a breakout, complete surprise performance here from Smith.  He has to be owned in every league because he might just push past Lee Evans on the depth chart and the Ravens have been dying for a receiver to break out and take over games.  If they think Smith might be that guy, he will get a chance to prove it.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Ridley was the most productive rusher for the Patriots in the shootout in Buffalo. He has 7 touches to BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 9 and out rushed him 44 yards to 16. Let’s be realistic, at best we are hoping that the rookie gets moved into the rotation and helps to destroy the value of Law Firm and Woodhead. However if you have a bench spot open, go pick him up.  He is likely to touch the ball some more and if he remains more productive than Green-Ellis, he could become a viable flex play by the end of the year.

Nate Washington, WR, TEN – Who is going to step up and fill in for Britt now? Well, Washington has been with the team a bit and has  had some chemistry with Matt Hasselbeck this season. Washington is immediately the most fantasy-relevant player on the Titans and he is probably a decent flex play in PPR formats without Britt on the field.

Alfonso Smith, RB, ARI – I thought that Chester Taylor was going to get the work with Beanie Wells and LeRod Stephens-Howling out for this game on Sunday. I was wrong and it was Smith that saw the lion’s share of the carries.  It is a pretty safe bet that Wells misses some time again later this season and I would say that Smith will be the every down guy even if Stephens-Howling is active.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – Manningham is going to come back and he will get his #2 job back opposite Nicks. But the Giants are still thin at receiver and Cruz is likely to jump up and play in the slot now. I am not big on Manning and do not think Cruz will be overly successful at this point but if the Giants can keep on the right track, Cruz just may end up being a good bye-week plugin.

Dump List

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Walter is back and Jones is banged up. He won’t be productive enough from #3 on the depth chart at receiver so you do not need to hold him any longer.

Deion Branch, WR, NE – I think we know what your going to get from Branch and that is a lot of bad games and few great ones.  Unfortunately, this makes him VERY scary to start any given week and really only allows him to post numbers on your bench.  If your in a 10-team league, go ahead and get someone else.

Carnell Williams, RB, STL – He ran well against the Ravens this week, but Steven Jackson came back and will take the lead role back.

Braylon Edwards, WR, SF – I am surprised to see that he is still owned in 40% of leagues. This should not be. The 9ers offense does not feature a vertical passing attack and has a mediocre at best QB. I expect Edwards to be slow to return from surgery and even when he is 100% he will not be overly productive with Alex Smith at QB.

Jerome Harrison, RB, DET – Best has been doing well and Maurice Morris seems to be the primary guy. Go get Ridley instead of holding Harrison another week.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, PIT – The Steelers offensive line is a mess and they were barely able to beat the Colts without Peyton Manning on Sunday night. Sanders has not been able to get much going this season and he definitely wont be able to be even remotely consistent this season.

No Comments »

Question 1. Asked by @Dantvman

@BigJim_SFL with no manning, should i play d branch or d amendola over austin collie?

Answer

Without Peyton, I don’t trust Collie very much.  Manning made a lot of the Colts better players than they can be without him.  I’m not saying that Collie wont be a factor anymore, rather than I want to see him play some in this new offense before I risk starting him.  Amendola is third on the depth chart at receiver so this week he’ll be covered by either Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Asante Samuel… I’d just sit him down as I think the Rams are going to get crushed.  That leaves you with Branch, who is a fine play considering Tom Brady is still the QB in New England.

Question 2. Asked by @KifuTheGREAT

@BigJim_SFL I must decide to play Braylon Edwards or Mike Sims-Walker. Any suggestions. Thanks.

Answer

Sims-Walker is too risky against the stacked Eagles secondary and with Crabtree injured I think Edwards has a decent chance for a big game.  To me, the choice is pretty easy as Edwards is both the safer pick and he has higher upside.

Question 3. Asked by @MFarrell21

Who to start as my 3rd WR in a PPR league? Amendola or Harvin and why?

Answer

Amendola is third on the depth chart and likely to face off against Rodgers-Cromartie. I don’t like this match up.  Harvin does also have an unfavorable match up, but he has a more reliable QB and running game to take the pressure off the passing game.  Also, he is the only viable receiver for McNabb to throw to and I expect them to use him.

No Comments »

Week 14 was a disaster for many fantasy owners as most of the elite talent in the league fell victim to bad weather, QB injuries, dropped passes and just plain getting shut down by opposing defenses. Out of these mediocre performances a few waiver wire gems appear, and here they are:

Pickups

Tim Hightower, RB, ARI - 18 carries for 148 yards and 2 TDs is like a dream for Hightower owners who were hoping for a third of that production from him this week.  Skelton at QB is not something that should scare us anymore as he has been the only guy to march the Cards down the field and balance out their mediocre offense.  If you’re still alive on your league, then look for Hightower to have another good performance next week against the Panthers inept rush defense.

Anthony Dixon, RB, SF - Dixon was by far the 49ers most productive runner in what was essentially a playoff game for the 49ers.  He saw the most carries (14) and racked up 60 yards, while Westbrook primarily contributed in the passing game with 6 grabs for 87 yards and a score.  Westbrook will remain the top ranked RB in San Fran due to his pass catching ability, but Dixon is startable in the flex position in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Rams and Cardinals.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – It appears as though we have found the Redskins RB for the rest of the season as Torain had 24 carries for 172 yards.  He didn’t find the endzone, but the Skins are bad and if he is able to produce like this right after coming back from an injury… then I see no reason he can’t be a flex starter the rest of the playoffs.  He won’t likely rise above that level any time soon, because you can’t trust Shanahan to follow common sense with his RBs.

Josh Morgan, WR, SF – After Crabtree was a non-factor in what was a great game for Alex Smith, there is little trust to be had in any of the 9ers receivers… but if you are in a deep format there is plenty of upside for a team looking to stay productive after losing Frank Gore.

Arrelious Benn, WR, TB – Another deep league guy, especially considering Mike Williams is clearly the bigger threat on the Buccaneers offense… but Benn was the guy that I liked in the preseason (until we found out Williams was going to be the starter anyways) and he demonstrated why with 4 catches for 122 yards.  You can ignore him in standard leagues, but he makes an interesting choice for Williams owners in those deeper formats where the options are minimal.

Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC - Jennings took just 5 carries and racked up 109 yards and a score this week against a soft Raiders run defense.  Rashad is the best handcuff you could possibly have and if you own MJD, then he should have been on your team for a couple weeks now.

Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN - Another one of them handcuffs, Adrian Peterson owners should not wait until he gets hurt to try and scoop him up… do it now!

Dump List

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – The playoffs is not really the time to play a guy who has been a disappointment and is a part of a team that is collapsing.  While he could end up being a big part of any resurgence that the Jets may have in coming up, he has to earn a starting job and go on a hot streak… and do it all inside the next two weeks.  Since that isn’t going to happen feel free to drop Greene if there are any good options left.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI - You probably can’t find better on free agency or waivers… but with Earl Bennett emerging as Cutler’s new favorite weapon, Knox falls under the category of people you wouldn’t want to start… so go get Bennett or someone with more upside that could provide a better value if he does well.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR - Well, you probably don’t still have him and you definitely aren’t starting him… but with no signs of life coming from the Panthers now that Clausen is back, you can safely drop Smith and not be worried about anyone using him against you.  They truly are the worst team in the league and I do not expect that to change in the remaining few weeks of the season.

Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ – There are some very serious issues that the Jets offense has to over come and since you really can’t count on him for the next couple weeks… go ahead and drop him.

Kyle Orton, QB, DEN - Oh how quickly the mighty have fallen… Studesville was chosen to be the interim because he will not be the new Head Coach next season.  After 6 years in Buffalo, I think the Broncos want to keep him as a part of their staff and since he is the only guy where this is the case, he was the logical choice.  I wouldn’t trust anyone but Knowshon Moreno now that the running back coach is in charge and don’t be surprised to see Tebow start or two to end the season.

No Comments »

Question 1: Asked by @Velve23

flex help in ppr pick 1 expert! Maclin, Blount or K WIlliams? do or die this week…#fantasyfootball

Answer

To me, its Maclin.  The fact that you’re in a PPR league makes it no contest! The Giants are facing the Eagles this week as they try and avoid a slump following their loss to the previously one-win Cowboys.  Michael Vick is the hottest QB in the league and has yet to turn the ball over for the entire season.  I think it would be a mistake to sit a guy that gets the ball thrown to him by a guy that, to this point, appears to be unstoppable… unless he’s hurt.  You should take some time on Sunday to confirm this decision when we know more about what role Clinton Portis will have, because if he is inactive (and we already know Torain will be) then Williams might be worth considering!

Question 2: Asked by wadadli24

Which two WRs do I start out of this group? M. Colston, B. Edwards, P. Garcon, M. Manningham, M. Thomas, D. Amendola, M. Crabtree

Answer

Colston is the clear top guy in this list to me, he has a good match-up at home against the Seahawks and it shouldn’t be forgotten that they are coming off a bye week.  It did look like we were getting Reggie Bush back this week, but it is now said to be a game-time decision.  For the second spot, the question is really Edwards, Manningham and Crabtree.  The winner to me is Crabtree, since the new offensive coordinator has taken over the offense Crabtree has scored a TD (and double digit fantasy points) in 4 of his 5 games.  Troy Smith should have dispelled any concerns about him leading this team by now and unless you need to take a risk to find someone who will have a HUGE performance I would stick with the consistency of Crabtree.  If you do need that big-game, look to Braylon Edwards against the Texans secondary and hope I am wrong on Santonio Holmes being the more-trusted guy in that offense. You can view my answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

Question 2: Asked by mach4831

Who do I start in Week 11, Kyle Orton or Eli Manning?

Answer

I am guessing you’re frustrated with the use of Tim Tebow in the red zone, but most of his touches are runs and if they weren’t going to Tebow… they would go to Moreno, not Orton.  Orton has been a GREAT pick up for you this year, so ride it out after they completely DISMANTLED the Chiefs last week.  Manning faces the Eagles this week, who are on fire.  Manning turns the ball over and Vick does not, so I also have questions about how much time the Giants offense will be spending on the field in this game. You can view my answer and the answers of others on Fandemic.

No Comments »

This year is unique in Fantasy Football, the Wide Receivers are in a position of importance.  In the Running back article I talked about how the use of RBs has changed in the NFL.  This change has caused different statistical outcomes for the wide receivers as well.  With offenses like the Colts and Saints emerging throughout the league, a premium wide out is essential.  The increased reliance on the passing game has lead to more receptions, yards and scores from wide receivers.  Historically consistency was a problem at this position and it forced us to put our emphasis on RBs during our drafts, but this year is a different story.  You can see my top 50 WR’s here.

The Top 5

If you told me last year that Larry Fitzgerald would not be a top 5 WR on my rankings in 2010 I would have probably laughed inappropriately at you, but here we are going into week 4 of the preseason and we aren’t sure who the starting QB will be for week 1.  Andre Johnson is EVERYONE’S number one WR this year, and deservedly so… he is a shoe-in for 1400 yards and 10 TDs.  Last Year AJ lead the league in targets and yardage.  Many people are predicting the beginning of the end for Reggie Wayne, but I am not one of them.  He looked very sharp in the preseason and last I checked he was still the guy Manning looks for when he needs a big play.  You always run the risk of not having him in your Super Bowl since the Colts love to bench starters at the end of the year, but on Draft day… lets focus on getting to that game! Last year Miles Austin was the third best receiver in fantasy football, which is even more impressive when you consider he didn’t start for the Cowboys until Week 5 when he had a monster breakout game against the Chiefs.  With a full season and a better receiving corp to draw the double coverage away from him, Austin should be a special player again this year.  He is not higher than 4th because of the offensive line issues the Cowboys have to figure out.  Once you are facing the decision of whether or not to draft a slightly questionable running back, consider one of these consistent stud receivers.

The Second Tier

My 2nd tier of  wide-outs covers ranks 6-13 and starts to include people that will lack in consistency.  At the top of this group is Calvin Johnson, a Detroit Lion.  That is a big enough question as it is, but this guy is a freak of an athlete and is the only one in this group capable of scoring more points than Andre Johnson.  We have seen flashes of brilliance with Calvin, but mediocre-at-best quarterback play has been his limiting factor.  Matthew Stafford showed us his leadership abilities and toughness last year that compliments his throwing ability quite nicely.  If Detroit can continue to develop Stafford and the rest of the team, Megatron could have a career year.  Brandon Marshall has been too widely praised by fantasy owners this year, I think people confuse him for a home run threat… and that is not what he will be.  Marshall will see his fair share of scores, don’t get me wrong… but he is much more of the Wes Welker type than that of Randy Moss.  You should feel much more comfortable reaching for Marshall in a PPR format.  Larry Fitzgerald terrifies me this season, Leinart is being shopped around on the trade market, he took a pretty nasty shot on a crossing route early in the preseason and has yet to come back and they lost some significant talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cardinal’s offense will spend a lot less time on the field this year, and wont come close to the number of TDs they had last year.  Fitzgerald is a supreme talent but has no upside attached to him.  Best case scenario he finishes as the number 8 WR at the end of the season… exactly where he is ranked today.  DeSean Jackson will not produce what he did last year, but I am encouraged by his involvement in the intermediate passing game this preseason.  He is the key to the Eagles’ offensive success this year and they have to find ways to get him the ball.  Anquan Boldin can vastly exceed his ranking this year… if he stays healthy.  It has been a little while since we have seen Boldin play in 16 games, but if he can do it this year he will be a top 5 fantasy receiver. It probably won’t happen though.

Second, Third and Flex Receivers

So far this preseason I have seen this group (ranks 14-27) of guys FLY off the draft board in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Wes Welker is back in full speed action during the preseason… he won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  If he recovered that quickly from his injury then it is fully healed and I do not anticipate any drop in production from this PPR gold mine.  With a full preseason under his belt, and a clear number one QB at the helm, we should be about to witness the start of a very good career.  We all remember that he held out to start last season and there was good reason he was able to do it.  He is incredibly talented.  Dwayne Bowe has gotten back into shape this season and with a much more balanced offensive attack he could have the best season of his career this year.  Pierre Garcon has done a great job cementing his number two role in Peyton Manning’s offense.  We saw Reggie Wayne excel in this role behind Marvin Harrison and the Colts have a knack for drafting talent.  Popular sleeper picks Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace round out this group all of whom have big play ability and an offense capable of utilizing their talents.  Wallace is ranked last of these three solely because of Big Ben’s suspension.

Spot Fillers and Sleepers

In the last half of the rankings (28 – 50) comes guys you will use to fill in for bad match ups and bye weeks. Vincent Jackson is an elite talent that needs to sign with a team by Saturday or else he will be ineligible for the first six weeks of the season.  Santonio Holmes is another guy that would be ranked much higher, but he will be missing the first four games for a suspension.  Malcom Floyd could be a huge bargain as he will be filling in for VJax while he holds out/is suspended.  Sidney Rice will miss at least 6 games and this brings up the value of teammate Bernard Berrian.  Kenny Britt and Vince Young appear to have some chemistry between them and Britt has huge upside this year, I could see him getting to 1,000 yards receiving.

Sleepers

Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Legedu Naanee and Mike Williams (TB)

Busts

Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Braylon Edwards and Steve Breaston

Recap

You definitely will need an elite WR this year.  Do not get left without one in my top two tiers you will have headaches.  I know it feels funny, but don’t be afraid to reach for a 2nd guy as well.

No Comments »

Rex Ryan is apparently a genius.  Every move he has made has been the right one and assuming nothing insane happens with the Revis contract talks or the development of Mark Sanchez; the Jets are my favorite to win the division.  They will have the best defense in the NFL as well as fantasy football due to the complex blitzing scheme of mastermind Rex Ryan. If they can keep the best rushing attack in the league as well… then they will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time. LaDanian Tomlinson can be expected to pick up some goal line and third down work.

Top Fantasy Players

Shonn Greene – Given the level work given to Greene during the playoffs last year and the departure of all the other running backs on the team there is an immense amount of confidence in this young man.

Santonio Holmes – Sanchez needed a deep threat with better hands than Braylon Edwards, and that is exactly what Holmes will be… come week 5.  Shortly after being acquired by the Jets it was announced that Holmes would face a 4 game suspension due to violating the substance abuse policy.  This will make Holmes a great value in late rounds, but there is some risk that there is no chemistry between him and Sanchez so production could start slow as well as late.

Jets D/ST – If last year’s defense was any indication of what is to come then opposing offenses are in for some trouble.  The Jets were the best defense last year, and they added depth and talent to the roster.

No Comments »

This is an interesting time to do some scouting very early for next year’s fantasy football team and now is the best time to start taking notes on players that made the Playoffs.

Among the biggest stand-out teams in this year’s playoffs are the New York Jets.  The player everyone will want to know about is Mark Sanchez, and I don’t see any way that Sanchez is a viable fantasy option outside of very deep formats.  The forecast that I see for him is similar to that of Joe Flacco.  His performance this season was streaky, but he made plays when it mattered most and he will continue to do so.  I think the Jets are likely to repeat a playoff berth and possibly even win the division.  With that said the player I see making the biggest impact on fantasy rosters next season is Shonn Greene.  The way Ryan and the Jets used him at the end of the season led me to believe that Thomas Jones was worn out.  I would expect Greene to take the majority of the work starting early next year so that Jones is able to contribute the entire season.  I envision Jones getting most the short yardage work and splitting goal-line carries with Greene, who will take up the primary rushing role.  Braylon Edwards will likely remain a Jet going into next season but when you think about drafting him think about the pass that bounced off his face mask in the the open field against Buffalo, because no matter who throws the ball Edwards has a problem with drops.

Another team that I felt stood out was the Baltimore Ravens.  With how young Flacco is it would be hard for them to be playing instead of Manning and the Colts, but all this post-season time he is seeing early in his career will help him to develop into a premiere QB in the league.  He may not yet be a starting Fantasy Football QB but that is not much his fault… If the Ravens can get some deeper talent at WR he will end up top 10 at his position next season.  Ray Rice never slowed down, all season.  He gained respect among Fantasy owners every time he touched the football this season and the Playoffs was no different.  He is a threat in both dimensions of the offense and will mature with the rest of that offensive unit.  I also respect the Ravens because of their Defense, which at times struggled and faced injuries to big play-makers but they kept Flacco and their offense in almost every game and they will lead the Ravens back to the Playoffs again next year.

The biggest disappointment this post season was the Cincinnati Bungals.  They swept their division by playing smart and disciplined in all three phases and with a punishing run game.  These are the most important elements to playoff football, but they still broke down at the end and took an early exit against the Jets.  I saw great things come from the Bengals all season and after the unfortunate passing of their teammate, they never quite seemed the same.  Not that this is why, but it definitely crushed the momentum they had built for themselves and following that incident Cedric Benson was ROBBED of Comeback Player of the Year and they were snubbed by the Pro Bowl.  All these distractions broke the focus of the team down and cost them a chance to make a deep run into the playoffs.  Next season they are hopefully able to retain focus deep into the year and Palmer has one last shot to win a Super Bowl because after that they may need a new QB.

Hard to call losing with such a profound effort a disappointment but I expected the Packers to go deep this year, not out in the first round.  It made for a fitting end to Warner’s career who is too often forgotten as one of the most incredible football players of our time, but I view it like the Packers do, a loss, and a big one.  Rodgers has yet to step up and really fill the shoes of Favre, and lasting long enough to beat him (or even face him) in the Playoffs would have done just that.  Next year will be another phenomenal fantasy campaign for Rodgers and a fair few Packers, but that is little consolation if they are one and done in the post season again next season.

No Comments »

Studs

Brady Quinn and Matthew Stafford – I want to address the performances of the two quarterbacks at the same time. Stafford’s game is statistically the best performance from a rookie QB ever. Look it up, stafford is the first rookie to throw five TD passes since 1937!!!!… Leather helmet wearing Ray Buivid of the Bears was the last one to do it. In addition the 422 yards is the best ever, beating Leinart’s 2006 season-high total of 405 in Arizona. This means little in fantasy football to be honest, neither QB is someone you want to rely on going into the playoffs. All season we have been happily starting anyone playing the Browns and the Lions anyways, so the stars did their job under the ideal circumstances… big deal. From a non-fantasy perspective these games mean that these QB’s have the ability, and its up to the coaching staffs and front offices to make the teams better with more talent and getting everything they can from what they have.

Terrell Owens

Who knew the Bills had an offense? No one!. After one game it has become relatively apparent that Jauron was largely to blame for many of the offensive issues. Fitzpatrick was the first 200 yard passer in Buffalo since dating back to last season, and Owens totaled 9 catches on 14 targets for 197 yards including a 98 yard TD pass. He also finished the week as the highest scoring fantasy WR in the league. The real question is can we expect this type of output from the Bills week after week? We all know I certainly hope so, however it is not likely. Fitzpatrick played really well, and the success of this team is dependant on the QB position (where is it not?) and I do not think Fitz is the answer for the Bills. Remember the name Brian Brohm, because I think you’ll see him taking snaps before the season is over, and I sincerely think he would be better than Edwards and Fitzpatrick. So where does this leave Owens and Evans? Who knows, they are both worth a roster spot for a match-up play its up to the Bills to find a QB for them though!

Greg Jennings

Wow, you finally got what you drafted! The question is, did you already find better options to replace him? Lots of owners are going to feel more than a little burned by Jennings’ performance versus a solid opposing defense on Sunday. Jennings got 10 grabs for 128 yards and a TD which are about the numbers you expected to see probably 4 times by now. Jennings was drafted a top10 WR in most leagues and has been a pretty steady disappointment since week 3, which was the last 100 yard game. Jennings remains a deep threat and a red zone threat as well, and with a superb match-up Thursday versus a Lions D that Brady Quinn made look like a college team… wonder what Rodgers will throw for!?

Brett Favre

Well I don’t know what the Vikings are thinking letting Brett throw so much with AP in the backfield. Did they not watch the film from the end of last season when he just wore out and his team crumbled around him. I am a Peterson owner and have loved every minute of the incredible consistency that he continues to show despite tying the lowest total he has had all season, 9. However with that said, in Fantasy Football you are a fool if you don’t have a pretty short memory. I don’t think he will be able to keep up this kind of output into the playoffs, but as a fantasy owner you dont care start him till the game he tosses 4 or 5 picks in a game. Hope that’s not the playoffs!

Duds

Roy Williams – Dump list earning performance this week versus, admittedly, the best passing defense in the league, but the match-ups don’t get better. His only chance is if teams are still keying on Austin who has been lackluster as of late, and could be tossed aside onto my dump list soon too.

Brandon Marshall – Orton had to play hurt versus a very good pass defense and Marshall suffered. Only 2 points… his fantasy production is linked to Orton’s so it’s up in the air. Your probably still starting him baring you have an obviously better option.

Braylon Edwards – Exactly the same number of drops as fantasy points… ONE! Not a ridiculous number of drops, but not too many catches either (1 on 5 targets).

No Comments »