Tight end is a very deep position this year. There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10. The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL. The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft. More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses. Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent. Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone. When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.
The Top Two
Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own. No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack. When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR. With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates. Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.
The Next Three
Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys. Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates. In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense. The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover. Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again. Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.
The Last of The Starters
Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends. These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB. Brent Celek falls under the new QB category. There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not. It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other. Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year. Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self. The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.
The Best of The Rest
Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams. Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year. Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe. Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball. Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.
Sleepers
Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano
Busts
Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap
Recap
If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it! You will be getting to start an extra WR every week. If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft. The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion. Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.
San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans
This really should be a VERY entertaining game for us to watch on Christmas. I expect a high scoring affair so go ahead and bench these defenses for your playoff or super bowl match-up. Rivers should do very well this weekend as well as Gates with Keith Bulluck out the middle will be much easier to attack. Obviously Johnson is a must start as he is almost a shoe-in for a hundred yards on the ground and a score. You may see a bit more receiving yards than normal here as like with Benson last week the Chargers are good at marginalizing their opponents rushing attack. They can’t make CJ irrelevant as he is just as big a threat out of the backfield. Britt is still your fantasy option at QB but Gage will vulture a few targets from him so town down expectations.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Rushing yards are at a premium so tone down expectations on Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall. Rice is a must start however because of his worth in the passing game but you shouldn’t expect a huge day. Mendenhall would likely be sitting but other starts from this game are Derrick Mason, Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. I like Holmes quite a bit, more than Ward this week as the Ravens are vulnerable to the deep threat and thats what he is so he has a huge upside. Downgrade Heath Miller as the Ravens have the line backers to cover a TE in man coverage pretty well.
Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles
This game could have its fair share of fireworks as the Broncos are desperate to prove that last week was a fluke and the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league. DeSean Jackson is an obvious must start as there really doesn’t appear to be any defense that is prepared for his speed. They do have a good secondary and should do an okay job limiting him from too big of a game, but Celek should should benefit from all the cover three and quarters coverage that Jackson will force. Stay away from Kyle Orton, and every Eagle running back you may have.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
The Jaguars have to win to stay in the playoff hunt and the Patriots can clinch the division with a win so both teams have something to prove. The normal cast of starters will still apply and you can expect a big day from the Patriots receivers as the Jags are pretty bad at corner back. Downgrade Garrard some as he never looks quite as good away as he does at home, but I do expect Mike Sims-Walker to do just fine as the Patriots secondary is pretty weak itself. Oh and Maurice Jones-Drew… rumor has it he’s pretty good so go ahead and start him too. =P
Have a Very Merry Christmas, I will have player rankings updated tonight or before the game Christmas Day! Please forgive me if I don’t do a mailbag article though, I don’t see me nieces and nephew enough as it is!
Randy Moss (NE) – Jaguars allow the 6th most yards per game in the air, and Moss is coming off a good game against a really good secondary. Moss is set to have a great game for your Super Bowl match-up.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) - Oh, what it must be like to have one of the hottest QB’s in the league go against the worst ranked passing defense in the league. You’ve been looking at this match-up hoping it would be relevant, and if it is congrats!
Vincent Jackson (SD) – He has been an elite guy all year until his brief cold streak, and boy has he bounced back (Just in time to get you into the Super Bowl too). The Titans passing defense has its wholes and has been burned by the big play all year, although less since they found an offense in week 6 or so. Rivers loves his favorite target and should be set to have a big game this week.
Drew Brees (NO) - If there is any team you want to play after your first loss it’s the Bucs. The Saints are going to let a little frustration out against this two win ball club.
Adrian Peterson (MIN) – He only had 35 rushing yards last week but with his long passing play in junk time he was able to get a very respectable fantasy total last week. The Bears are not as good as the Panthers, and the Vikes have a chip on their shoulder with the media TOTALLY OVER-REACTING about a sideline conversation that was “heated” although for the life of me it looks like they are talking normally to me… We all need to remember these are two passionate guys trying to win a game… will they get carried away when talking to people? Yup! Do we all get carried away when discussing what we are passionate about? YUP! With the hits that Favre took Peterson will get his chance to establish the run in order to slow the pass rush.
Frank Gore (SF) – The 49ers offense has been striving for balance lately and they have a really soft defense to practice on this week. Anyone you have from the 9ers is worth a start and an upgrade from how you would normally use them.
Cedric Benson (CIN) - Jerome Harrison just had the third biggest rushing performance in NFL history and Benson had been one of the most often used backs in the league despite missing two games with an injury. He is set to have a great game this week and could possibly top 200 yards himself.
Beanie Wells (ARI) – Wells broke a hundred yards last week and might well do it again as they face the terrible Rams.
Ryan Grant (GB) – Two weeks ago he had a breakout game, and last week he held his own against a very stout rush defense. This week its the struggling Lions that might be without Stafford, which means that the offense wont even be able to allow their defense to rest.
Fred Jackson (BUF) - With the Bills turning their failed hopes and dreams to a new QB this week there is no downside here. Either he is inconsistent and can’t often utilize all the offensive weapons, or Brian Brohm’s mobility helps him extend plays and make positives out of negatives. Early in this game you have to expect them to try to get going on the ground. This would help Brohm find a rhythm and get going at his own pace. Freddie just eeked out a top 20 spot this week, or will have once my updated ranks come out against the 20th ranked rushing defense allowing 118 yards per game! (Oh and you faithful few actually reading during the very beginning… you remember? just read the Terrell Owens section)
Jason Snelling (ATL) – I don’t see Turner rushing back after a third straight ankle injury, so the guy that is proven to get the most carries in his absence is Snelling. This Bills defense is the worst in the league against the run, and they are very picky through the air. I don’t have any idea why you would drop back to pass unless you absolutely had to against the Bills.
Michael Crabtree (SF) - He’s been more and more a part of the offense since he came onto the team, and there will be plenty of yards to be shared this Sunday.
Steve Smith (CAR) - Ever since Matt Moore has started taking the snaps Smith has been relevant again. All them INTs clearly had Delhomme too afraid to take a chance and let that stud
Brent Celek (PHI) – The Broncos have a strong enough defense that they can limit DeSean Jackson’s chances deep. In order to do this they are going to have to drop 3 back deep almost every play and Celek should have a big day over the middle.
Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis is making a bid to be considered the top TE in football this season. He’s among the top TD catchers in the league and is facing the Lions, gotta love it!
Visanthe Shaincoe – I’ve said it before, Bears linebackers are very good at covering TE’s.
Matt Ryan – Bills shut down Brady fantasy-wise.
Ray Rice – Tone down expectations given the match-up.
Rashard Mendenhall – Tone down expectations given the match-up.
Kyle Orton – I would have a tough time starting Orton this week with the ball hawks in the secondary for Philly.
