Well for the first time in 2 years we all thought it was in the bag that he would be returning for another season.  And at the first whiff of a rumor it is assumed that he will not be playing. Having heard Brett’s retirement speech already I will remain under the assumption that he will be playing until he is not on the field against the Saints for the season opener.  So if any of you are wondering why he is still on my rankings pretty high up there and Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are also unaffected… that is why.  The most interesting part of the storyline here for fantasy football is not Tarvaris Jackson or the fall of Rice and Harvin; Instead, its that without Favre to call the audibles and boost the passing game, Adrian Peterson would likely become my number one overall RB. With Favre at QB, the Vikings dropped back to pass 7% more than in 2008 with Ferotte and Jackson at the helm (Thanks to the guys on the Fantasy Focus podcast for that stat).  Having done a couple of mock drafts since the “news” about Favre I think we all need to look at the Vikings players as having big upside.  Most people are letting Harvin drop into the 8th round, where he still has value with Jackson pulling the trigger… and if Favre comes back he would go in round 5 or so.

Fantasy Relevant Players

Adrian Peterson – He was our number one back last year and while people were disappointed that he did not have many HUGE games… he was a model on consistency and did nothing to lose his ranking.  The reason he DID lose the ranking was merely the absurd stats that Chris Johnson put up.

Sidney Rice – Whether he has Favre or not Rice will be a very relevant fantasy WR.  He will not be an elite receiver without his favorite gunslinger so his rank will need to fall if we do not hear some good news soon, but I’m not doing it yet.

D/ST – The Vikings defense comes in 3rd on my rankings despite the weakness in the secondary.  To me, the success of a defense is dependent on it’s ability to stop the run, for evidence you can look at the stats on my Buffalo Bills’ defense last year.

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Both last season and this upcoming one should end with similar standings.  The Vikings will be bringing Favre back and the Packers are the only team with a chance at upsetting them for the division title.  I expect the competition to be tight between the two powerhouses in this division, but I most look forward to how the Lions do this year!  I think they have made some huge steps in improving their franchise and fantasy owners should get used to the name Matthew Stafford right now.

Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings

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Titans @ Colts – I am so excited to sit down and watch this game Sunday,  it is hard to think that we can even be talking about this match up when one team is 11-0 and the other started 0-5, but how can we not?! We are about to have sooooo many questions answered about Vince Young and his red hot Titans.  I cannot expect the Titans to win it, but what if they do!? We would not be able to argue that they weren’t SUPER BOWL contenders let alone playoff bound.  The Colts have not displayed the Dominance that the Saints have but they are winning every game on the fortitude and genius of Manning.  But what about the Fantasy Relevance of the players?  Wayne and Manning are auto starts, and Addai has been so productive you probably don’t have a better option for your RB2 spot so no worries there.  Garcon is a flex play or a WR3 if your league starts that many, and he should get more credit for how well he does in that offense.  On the other side of the ball Young is not really a good fantasy option here unless it’s a 2 QB league or you’re counting on someone who ends up inactive, but I think Kenny Britt is the most relevant Titan this week.  He is an interesting flex play here as if the Titans win Britt will find the end zone.  No question CJ is the home run hitter, but you cannot stay in a ball game with Peyton Manning unless you get big plays from your passing game.

Eagles @ Falcons – Both teams are suffering some key injuries that really rob us of an even better match-up, however both teams are also fighting to make the Playoffs and the Falcons realistically can’t lose with back-up QB Redman taking the snaps and a week after rushing Michael Turner back too fast and causing him to re-injure his ankle.  The Eagles are missing starting RB Westbrook and start WR Jackson both with concussions.  White had decent production with Redman last weekend so I do not downgrade him too much, just some for the match-up.  The win here for the Eagles will give them the inside track to the Wild Card round and keep them in the hunt for the division.  I am very unsure about the Falcons RB situation this week, Snelling got minimal work and Norwood looked pretty good, so I am expecting a time share between the two making it a coin flip for who is the better start.  Eagles WRs Avant and Maclin both see big upside as they are facing a very soft Falcons secondary that ranks among the worst in the NFL.  Both WRs were active in the passing game even with Jackson in the lineup so McNabb will have little issues getting used to them.  McCoy has done very well as a fill in for Westbrook and remains a solid RB2 start till Westbrook comes back and takes some snaps away from him.

Cowboys @ Giants – Alright readers it’s December so we all know what that means!  Snow falling on Sundays, Fantasy Football playoffs are here, Egg Nog, and absurd amounts of terrible QB play in Dallas.  Romo is facing a division rival in the month of December so I don’t much like the Cowboy’s chances here, but for the sake of Fantasy Football I remind you all once again to have a very short memory!  All we care about is the last three weeks really, and while that’s not that good for Romo I think it levels out your expectations and gives him a chance to meet them.  Miles Austin is slated to have a big game and I agree, the only other player with upside around that city right now is Felix Jones as they are finally using him as the home run hitter he ought to have been all season.  Bottom line is that we get to watch the Cowboys make the playoffs this month or we get to watch the melt down and find a new head coach and starting QB in the off season, great entertainment either way.  As for the Giants, Eli wasn’t anyone’s starting QB at this point in the season anyways but with his foot injury we need to downgrade the wide outs a little bit.  Jacobs has been a huge disappointment so far and productivity from him would help this team down the stretch tremendously.  Unfortunately Jacobs has shown none of the talent he did last season and I have no reason to expect anything to improve.

Vikings @ Cardinals – Hard not to get excited about two playoff bound teams meeting at the end of the season, it’s a preview of coming attractions!  Warner has come back to limited participation in practice Wednesday but is still splitting the snaps with Leinart in case he cannot go.  Options in Warner’s place if he doesn’t go are Alex Smith and Vince Young.  Tough match-up for the Duo of Cardinals RBs this week, you should find a better option.  Peterson had an off game and had pretty bad production until the Vikes were putting the game on ice late with the running game.  Favre remains a trusted start this week as I do not think the Cards can with stand the balanced attack the Viking offense has this season.  I think Minnesota is stronger in all three phases of the game and should win impressively.

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LOVE

Thomas Jones – Bills are soft against opposing RBs given the injuries that have plagued their entire team.  Jones has been a model of consistency all season there is no reason it doesn’t happen again.

Matt Forte – I love all offensive players against the Rams unless they are Browns.

Cedric Benson – Benson was over rested to ensure his production deep into the playoffs.  He is aching to get back and they wont be afraid to use him in a great match up!

Brandon Marshall – The fact that the Chiefs have been on a tear as of late only makes it more likely that the passing game will be relevant deep into the game.

Jason Avant – Avant is a great pickup this week as Jackson’s absence is going to be missed against a weak Falcons secondary in week 13.  Avant is the lead candidate to fill the void Jackson will leave in the offense.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson – The game is in Jacksonville but the Jags are quite bad against the pass.  This duo is all set to have quite a great week for fantasy owners especially considering coach Kubiak is intent on ruining their running game.

Randy Moss – Bill Belichick is not pleased with the outing Monday night and is out for revenge against a team Ryan Fitzpatrick just torched!

Rashard Mendenhall – He’s been a bit quiet this past few weeks but with Ben Roethlisberger on the mend they will lean on the running game.

Pierre Thomas – Thomas looked good last week and the Saints wont need to pass against the leagues number one passing defense with Thomas ready to carry it as much as the Saints let him.

Ladainian Tomlinson – The Browns are really soft and if the Chargers can get to the goal line LT can still punch it in.

Vincent Jackson – Jackson has been a big disappointment over the past few weeks but the Browns have been much more disappointing for a lot longer.

Michael Crabtree – Seattle has the 25th ranked pass defense allowing an average of 231 yards per game.  Coach Singletary has this team believing in itself and they are still on the skirts of the wild card hunt.

Burleson and Houshmandzadeh – SF has the 28th ranked passing defense allowing 256.5 yards per game.  I do not think both can put up big numbers but one should have a big game and the other one should be respectable.  It’s up to Hasselbeck and the 49ers defense who gets the scores!

Donald Driver – Driver and Jennings have reversed their roles from what we thought they would be preseason and I have seen nothing to make me expect the roles to switch back.

Brett Favre and Sydney Rice – It’s near impossible to develop the kind of chemistry these two have over the single season time frame that these two have known each other.  I was skeptical but have recently hopped on board…

HATE

Terrell Owens – Guess whose turn it is to get shut down by Darrelle Revis!

Beanie Wells – Hightower got more work last week, and it appears that the Cards trust him more in the critical scenarios!

Calvin Johnson – Now that he has had some good production over the last fort night I’m afraid he has peaked, certainly I can’t expect much from the playoff bound Bengals.

Ryan Grant – I don’t foresee that much production from Grant Monday night against a stout Ravens run defense and struggling secondary.

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STUDS

Drew Brees (NO) went 18/23 with 371 yrds and 5 TDs in what was the biggest chance the Saints had left to be beaten.  No team but Dallas has much chance of beating the Saints this season and Romo in December is a pretty good opponent to have.  If your in the playoffs with Brees your only concern is him sitting out in weeks 16 or 17 if its relevant.

Brett Favre (MIN) – All season I have been warning people of what would happen at the end of the season, and it sure wasn’t this!  We are at the end now and he tallied 392 yards and 3 TDs, I can no longer advise anyone to not trust him till he gives you a reason not to.  You gotta have a short memory in fantasy football so forget last season already!

Justin Forsett (SEA) – This was a big game, and Forsett owners will be using him again, but maybe not this week as apparently the Seahawks don’t want to start him over Jones once he is healthy.  I cannot see the reasoning here as Jones is elusive and explosive and Jones is not so much of either any more. 130 yards and 2 TDs, break out game!

Fred Jackson (BUF) – The Lynch injury was kept really quiet and we knew he would be active but they made Jackson the feature back and Lynch the backup given his shoulder.  The Bills appear to be keeping this dynamic even as Lynch gets back to full strength.  Jackson proved he gets better with more carries and that he can be a very productive part of the offense when given the feature role.  He ran for 73 yards and 2 scores while also catching all five throws that came his way for another 43 yards.

Jamaal Charles (KC) -Despite losing pretty big Charles was still able to rack up 93 yards rushing and a TD. He also added 54 yards on just 3 catches making for pretty impressive output from a RB whose team lost 43-14.  His point totals over the last three weeks have been 18, 17, and 18.

Donald Driver (GB) – Driver beat out Jennings for the majority of the workload on Thanksgiving again this season, he has been a big surprise for the Packers at his age. He pulled down 142 yards and a score.

Miles Austin (DAL) – The return of Austin this week was very good for the Cowboys offense, same with Felix Jones who got him self a decent amount of work this week as well.  Austin had 145 yards and a TD Thursday evening and looks to be critical to their success.  If Romo can produce in December… big if… Austin will benefit greatly.

Percy Harvin (MIN) -146 all purpose yards Sunday as well as a receiving TD make the Vikings slot receiver tied for top fantasy WR in week 12.  a few more weeks with these kinds of numbers will give Harvin rookie of the year honors of Byrd or Britt.  Should the Bills somehow rally Byrd will give him a run for his money.

Terrell Owens (BUF) – Owens got 5 grabs for 96 yards and a TD Sunday in a solid victory for the Bills.  He’s starting to get exciting to watch again, he’s a low WR2 but a definite flex play for as long as Fitzpatrick plays like he has been.

Kenny Britt (TEN) – The Titans are for real and have a shot at making a playoff run.  They are on a tear and momentum is a powerful force.  Britt looked like his late 4th quarter fumble, but when the Titans got the ball back on their own one yard line 2 minutes and 37 seconds on the clock Britt redeemed himself by catching a 4th and 4 conversion from the 7 yard line as well as his last second TD catch to win the game.

Antonio Gates (SD) – Gates finally performed like owners have hoped for all season.  He caught all 7 passes Rivers threw to him getting  118 yards and two scores.  I said it in yesterdays entry, you play your most talented tight end regardless of match-up.  Since you didn’t draft Witten AND Gates then your playing Gates every single week.

New York Jets (D/ST) – Four INTs and a TD this week by Revis and the Jets in a win over the tough running Panthers.  Their fantasy value dropped off since the beginning of the year but they are still usable based on match-up.

DUDS

The Seahawks Passing Game – This is purely from a fantasy football sense, but we all expected at least one TD to go to Housh or Burleson.  Forsett got two and so did the return game putting them so far ahead they were able to just control the clock and get the win.  Good win for the team, but it was done in an unfortunate manner for plenty of fantasy owners.

Beanie Wells and Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) – Was a tough loss for the Cardinals who lost to a last second TD pass on Sunday while using back up QB Matt Leinart.  The offense didn’t have the rhythm it usually does and most all Arizona players suffered stat wise.  This should be fixed my Warner’s return next week.

Chad Ochocinco (CIN) -The Bengals won the game on the ground, and they really had no need to put the ball up in the air Sunday.  None-the-less he hurt some owners this weekend but he should be a viable starting WR in any format down the stretch.

Vincent Jackson (SD) – This makes three dud performances in a row for Jackson and it hurts but before that he’d been money ever week before that so deal with it he’s a stud and you have to start him.  Its not like shutting him down is working for these teams, they are still losing.

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Studs

Brady Quinn and Matthew Stafford – I want to address the performances of the two quarterbacks at the same time. Stafford’s game is statistically the best performance from a rookie QB ever. Look it up, stafford is the first rookie to throw five TD passes since 1937!!!!… Leather helmet wearing Ray Buivid of the Bears was the last one to do it. In addition the 422 yards is the best ever, beating Leinart’s 2006 season-high total of 405 in Arizona. This means little in fantasy football to be honest, neither QB is someone you want to rely on going into the playoffs. All season we have been happily starting anyone playing the Browns and the Lions anyways, so the stars did their job under the ideal circumstances… big deal. From a non-fantasy perspective these games mean that these QB’s have the ability, and its up to the coaching staffs and front offices to make the teams better with more talent and getting everything they can from what they have.

Terrell Owens

Who knew the Bills had an offense? No one!. After one game it has become relatively apparent that Jauron was largely to blame for many of the offensive issues. Fitzpatrick was the first 200 yard passer in Buffalo since dating back to last season, and Owens totaled 9 catches on 14 targets for 197 yards including a 98 yard TD pass. He also finished the week as the highest scoring fantasy WR in the league. The real question is can we expect this type of output from the Bills week after week? We all know I certainly hope so, however it is not likely. Fitzpatrick played really well, and the success of this team is dependant on the QB position (where is it not?) and I do not think Fitz is the answer for the Bills. Remember the name Brian Brohm, because I think you’ll see him taking snaps before the season is over, and I sincerely think he would be better than Edwards and Fitzpatrick. So where does this leave Owens and Evans? Who knows, they are both worth a roster spot for a match-up play its up to the Bills to find a QB for them though!

Greg Jennings

Wow, you finally got what you drafted! The question is, did you already find better options to replace him? Lots of owners are going to feel more than a little burned by Jennings’ performance versus a solid opposing defense on Sunday. Jennings got 10 grabs for 128 yards and a TD which are about the numbers you expected to see probably 4 times by now. Jennings was drafted a top10 WR in most leagues and has been a pretty steady disappointment since week 3, which was the last 100 yard game. Jennings remains a deep threat and a red zone threat as well, and with a superb match-up Thursday versus a Lions D that Brady Quinn made look like a college team… wonder what Rodgers will throw for!?

Brett Favre

Well I don’t know what the Vikings are thinking letting Brett throw so much with AP in the backfield. Did they not watch the film from the end of last season when he just wore out and his team crumbled around him. I am a Peterson owner and have loved every minute of the incredible consistency that he continues to show despite tying the lowest total he has had all season, 9. However with that said, in Fantasy Football you are a fool if you don’t have a pretty short memory. I don’t think he will be able to keep up this kind of output into the playoffs, but as a fantasy owner you dont care start him till the game he tosses 4 or 5 picks in a game. Hope that’s not the playoffs!

Duds

Roy Williams – Dump list earning performance this week versus, admittedly, the best passing defense in the league, but the match-ups don’t get better. His only chance is if teams are still keying on Austin who has been lackluster as of late, and could be tossed aside onto my dump list soon too.

Brandon Marshall – Orton had to play hurt versus a very good pass defense and Marshall suffered. Only 2 points… his fantasy production is linked to Orton’s so it’s up in the air. Your probably still starting him baring you have an obviously better option.

Braylon Edwards – Exactly the same number of drops as fantasy points… ONE! Not a ridiculous number of drops, but not too many catches either (1 on 5 targets).

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