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Patriots at Jets

The AFC East is still up for grabs.  Brady and the Pats have already lost more games than they did during the entirety of last season and after losing the the Giants when they didn’t have their two top offensive weapons (Bradshaw and Nicks), I am starting to think they might not be as invincible as they’ve been in years past. Thankfully for them, I think they match up well against the Jets. Welker has not really had too much issue being productive against the Jets in the past and usually Revis does not follow him all over the field. Teams have had success against the Pats this season by locking into man-to-man coverage on the less than elite receiving corp of New England and sending as much pressure as possible at Brady.  In order to get the win, Sanchez needs to play a perfect game and not give up any turnovers. If he can do that, there will be plenty of yardage and opportunities to get points on the board.  The Pats secondary has been just awful this season and still may prove to be their Achilles heel, much like it was for the Texans last year. Brady and the Pats need to lean on Law Firm and the running game in order to limit the time that their defense can be out there giving away the game.  I like the Patriots to win a high scoring affair after New York gets off to a slow start and is unable to catch up.  Welker and Brady are must-starts despite the less than appealing match-up but you should stay away from Deion Branch.  Upgrade Sanchez and the Jets receivers going against the NFL’s worst pass defense and feel free to use Shonn Greene in his typical RB2 role.

Saints at Falcons

Atlanta sits a game behind the Saints for first in the NFC  south and with the game being at home, I like Atlanta in this game.  They need to get back to running most of their offense through Michael Turner so that Roddy White and Julio Jones are able to see more man-to-man coverage and make big plays. Neither team has a scary defense that should make you concerned about giving them a start this week.  Atlanta needs to find a way to slow the Saints’ pass rush and and Turner is their best bet to do so.  Once they are able to bring the 8th man into the box, their receivers will be able to make the difference and get the win.  This game could easily go either way but Matt Ryan is almost a completely different quarterback at home and the Saints lack the depth at receiver to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Start all your typical players with confidence as this is not likely going to be a low scoring affair but do NOT expect a repeat performance from Julio Jones, who I anticipate being a very hit or miss player for his fantasy owners.  I am considering him as a very good flex play for the rest of the season unless he is able to consistently hit double digit points.

Lions at Bears

Don’t worry I won’t make  a joke about Tigers here, but this game should make a HUGE difference later on as the NFC wild card spots start to get figured out.  I think we all expect the Packers to win the NFC North and I would be surprised if at least one more team from the division didn’t make the playoffs.  Detroit is up a game on the Bears at the moment and getting this win would be huge for their playoff hopes this season. Detroit’s front seven has slipped in recent weeks and their issues with stopping the run has caused them to have issues late in games when they had been able to be so effective early on this season. Unfortunately for them they face Matt Forte this week and he has been simply incredible for the Bears.  For the past few weeks the Bears’ offensive line has been playing much improved football and when Jay Cutler has time to throw, this Bears offense is very difficult to stop and the Lions’ secondary has not been playing that great either. This is a very difficult game to predict the outcome for however with the Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson connection being near impossible to stop.  I wouldn’t use a Lions receiver outside of Megatron unless I absolutely needed to and I also am downgrading the Lions’ running backs.  If Best can play, which I doubt, I wouldn’t think he would see his normal workload and Maurice Morris is not quite good enough to run wild against the Bears stout defense. I like Chicago to win this close game and Cutler has a relatively clean jersey at the end of the game.

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Bills at Giants

I am very excited to watch my Bills play this weekend as they go on the road to face Eli Manning and the Giants. The last time Buffalo played on the road they were beat by an inferior Bengals team as Fitzpatrick struggled against a stout defense.  The Giants defensive front is phenomenal and finally healthy. Jason Pierre-Paul is quietly having a breakout season and with Osi Umenyiora back, the Bills’ offensive line is in for a long day. It will be up to Scott Chandler and the running backs to aid in protection because if they can give Fitzpatrick time, Steve Johnson and David Nelson will be able to get open. Terrence McGee will finally be on the field after injuring his hamstring in the season opener and this is very good news for Bills fans. The Giants have one of the best wide receiver trio’s in the NFL now that Victor Cruz has emerged as a play maker. Hakeem Nicks is one of the best red zone targets in the NFL and Manningham is a very complete receiver with great hands who runs very crisp routes. The story of this game will be simple: turnovers. Buffalo’s secondary has been incredibly opportunistic and has forced 4 INTs from both Tom Brady and Michael Vick this season. Eli Manning had issues with turnovers last week against the Seahawks, throwing 3 interceptions. If the Giants want to win this game, they have to protect the football and pressure Fitzpatrick.  Rookie Chris Hairston has a tall-task in his second start filling in for the injured Demetrius Bell at left tackle, but nothing slows down the pass rush like an effective run game and I like Buffalo to win a close game this week on the shoulders of Fred Jackson.  I would not sit any of your fantasy players in this game because these offenses are not going to be stopped completely. Eli Manning remains an good QB2 option, but I am too nervous about him throwing too many INTs to start him in standard leagues. Ahmad Bradshaw has the best match up here and will see a lot of use unless the game gets out of hand. David Nelson makes a very nice flex play because the loss of Donald Jones should lead to an increase in targets for Nelson.

Cowboys at Patriots

This game should be an entertaining one to say the least. Tony Romo is always the deciding factor in big games for the Cowboys, he either makes unbelievable game winning plays or bonehead mistakes that hand the game to his opponent. Maybe it’s wishful thinking as a Bills fan but I think that with an extra week to prepare and Miles Austin back in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to squeak out a victory in a nail-biter. The deciding factor for me is on defense; in the last 5 years no one has tallied more sacks than DeMarcus Ware who tallied 72 in that time frame. Of the two defenses, Dallas’ is the one that I think has the best chance to impact the game and force a couple turnovers. The smart money is certainly on New England because Dallas is not going to be able to contain Wes Welker and Tom Brady WILL score points. Neither defense is a scary match up for fantasy owners of all players in this game. I think Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are must starts along with Wes Welker who is on pace to break a few records this season. Tom Brady and Tony Romo should both be started with confidence as well but I don’t know as though any running back will have a huge game here. Each team has a weak secondary and plays a pass-first style of offense.

49ers at Lions

San Francisco has really impressed me after a slow start on offense. An easy schedule and a few timely punt returns have gotten them off to a 4-1 start and they have really started to impress me over the past two weeks on offense.  Alex Smith is playing smart and safe football and Frank Gore has been over 100 yards for the past two games. Detroit has been almost perfect over the first 5 games and they look to remain undefeated. This game will need to be won in the trenches. Detroit has invested a lot of high draft picks on their defensive line and San Francisco has invested their recent draft picks in their offensive line.  So far this season these young groups of lineman have been a huge part of their teams success and I think whoever wins THIS match up wins this football game. San Francisco has to keep Stafford and Megatron on the bench with a heavy dose of Frank Gore. Carlos Rogers is playing the best football of his life for the 9ers and has a pick in three straight games after returning one for a TD last week. I actually like San Fran to win a close game with a big play on defense giving them the edge. You have to start all your Detroit Lions though; Jahvid Best will be one of the best RB2 options for fantasy owners until he gets hurt and Calvin Johnson is by far the best receiver in the NFL for fantasy-purposes. Matthew Stafford is a very viable starter, but I don’t think he has too much big-game potential against this defense.   Alex Smith is an option in a pinch for 2 QB leagues if your having bye week issues, but I would stay away if possible.

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Bears vs. Lions

The Bears have something the Lions want. The title of “Division Champ”. They can’t win that this week but they can certainly help their cause considerably. The story of this game will be the Bears’ offensive line, which has played terribly this season.  The Lion’s front seven on defense has been able to make up for their secondary with a great pass rush.  Also, the run defense has been really good through the first four weeks and we can expect them to contain Forte on the ground. Don’t worry fantasy owners, he’ll get enough rushing yards to compliment his receiving total and remains a must-start and a top 10 RB. Cutler is a decent QB2 this week, should your league allow you to play two, and his receivers are all too inconsistent to be worth even a flex spot as even Johnny Knox has almost fallen outside of my top 40 receivers.  Calvin Johnson is quite possibly the MVP of the first quarter of the season with remarkable consistency as he has hauled in two touchdowns in every single game thus far. Stafford has also joined the ranks of the elite fantasy QBs. Injuries remain a long-term concern in my opinion but until that happens, he is still the guy throwing to Megatron and he has led the Lions to 4-0.  I like the Lions to win at home in the dome, but I would not be at all surprised if it was a relatively low-scoring game.

Packers vs. Falcons

Last year, the Packers handed the Falcons one of their only two home-losses of the season. That game also ended the season for Atlanta because it was in the divisional round of the playoffs. I actually like Atlanta to win this game in a shootout. The beat Green Bay at home last in week 12 of last season, but it was far from a shootout. This year, both defenses are not quite living up to the expectations that most of us had for them. This should make for a lot of big plays and Julio Jones is inside the top 25 at wide receiver for the first time, making him a very good flex play. Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone for the first time in his career. Most people are staying completely away from the Ryan Grant/James Starks situation, but I think Grant makes a pretty good flex play with six teams on their bye week. Starks did not impress me last week with Grant sidelined and the week before that, Grant outplayed Starks considerably. Rodgers, Jennings and White are all must starts as always.

Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets sure need a win to try and pull even with Buffalo for the number two spot in the division.  If they could pull it off and Buffalo loses to Philly, which I expect will happen, there would be a three-way tie at 2-2 atop the AFC East. That was fun wasn’t it? Let’s be serious, I like the Patriots to win this one handily. Rex Ryan’s defense has some explaining to do after two very mediocre performances in a row and an inability to contain the running game. I also don’t think Darrelle Revis can stop Wes Welker the way the Patriots have been using him over four weeks.  There is no one better at running shallow crossing routes to draw linebackers into trying to cover him and if the Jets really do force Revis to follow him all over the field, the rest of the Patriots receivers will be taking turns being open even deeper down the field. I also think the Jets offense will be able to be productive against a Pats defense that has struggled to pressure the quarterback.  If Sanchez can avoid stupid mistakes, Santonio Holmes could be in for a big day. I have him ranked is a viable WR2 or flex play. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the most likely back in New England’s committee to see carries at the goal line, so he remains the highest ranked of the three. Stevan Ridley HAS out performed Law Firm over the past two weeks though and might be worth a flex play in deeper formats however.

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Studs

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – That’s it, I am done fighting it. Cam Newton is now to be treated as the top 5 QB that he has been playing like so far for fantasy owners. Only Tom Brady and Drew Brees has passed for more yards so far on the season and one of Newton’s games was in a monsoon. Ron Rivera and the Panthers coaching staff have done a great job of game planning to help him feel more comfortable. This has meant employing a spread-style offense and letting Cam play from the shot gun.  I had my reservations about Cam this week against the Bears but he blew me away and he has maneuvered his way to being an elite, must-start QB every week from here on out.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – Last week the Bears seemed afraid to try and run the ball, this week Forte got 25 carries and racked up a staggering 205 yards on the ground with a TD just for good measure. I don’t know how long Mike Martz can keep this rushing attack going, but it is the only chance the Bears have of overcoming their O-line issues. Either way Forte is a top 10 back with his involvement in the passing game, but if they continue to run he might be a top 5 back.

Ravens, D/ST, BAL – In my Key Matchups article on Thursday, I stated that I thought the Ravens would keep Sanchez in check and force turnovers to win the game. I didn’t expect quite this dominating of a performance but I think we may have found the best fantasy-defense of 2011. The Ravens finished this week as the #2 scoring “player” in standard leagues with a whopping 32 points.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – We just didn’t see this coming as Wells returned from an injury that kept him out in Week 3. When healthy, expect big games from Beanie as he has had a TD in every game he has played as well as at least 90 yards each time as well. You can’t ask for more from a RB2 in my opinion.

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – This was a fluke, I wouldn’t even go pick up Garcon just yet. It is hard to call 146 yards and two scores a fluke, but I did it anyways. Garcon only caught two passes and each was a big scoring play, but he also dropped some very catch-able balls and at best I see Garcon back to a frustrating player that is bound to have some serious consistency issues.

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – Foster looked like a beast this week against Pittsburgh. Tate was a quality back in his absence and I was never too sold on Foster for this season after he got banged up. I saw Tate splitting time with Foster, but I now think I was wrong. Foster was a punishing physical runner and showed his break away speed on a long TD run late to seal the game. Consider him back to being a top 5 back.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Megatron is just hands down the fantasy football MVP of the first quarter of the season. He is on pace for a mind-blowing THIRTY TWO touchdown passes this season.  It is not likely that he can keep hauling in two TD passes per game the rest of the way, but he will no-doubt finish strong and have a career year.

Duds

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – The Cardinals secondary is full of holes and after the Giants torched the Eagles in Week 3, I expected a big day from Manningham. It didn’t quite happen, but both Nicks and Victor Cruz DID have good games. I am not worried about Manningham yet, but Cruz is clearly going to be a long-term factor in the passing game and might eat into Manningham’s targets a little bit.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – I touched on this a bit yesterday, but Hightower saw limited work as he banged up his shoulder against the Rams in week 3.  The Bye week is well-timed for putting this behind him but with Torain running so well, it’ll be VERY difficult to trust any of the Redskins’ RBs come week 6.

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ – I really just don’t see Sanchez as a viable starting QB for fantasy owners. If you saw this game, you probably have little trouble agreeing with me. No matter how good the opposing defense is, a QB should NEVER have negative fantasy points and I would have no trouble dropping Sanchez if i had him as my backup. Rex Grossman, Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton are all guys I would rather use a bench spot on.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – The Patriots spent an absurd amount of time in two tight end formations before Hernandez went down with an injury.  Now they only have one on the active roster and he did almost nothing against the Raiders.  Treat this as a fluke, because he is such a great red zone target for Brady. You just can’t afford to bench him.

Devery Henderson, WR, NO – The Saints receivers are getting back to healthy and Henderson and Meachem are back to the “too risky” category for me.  Someone will have a big game each week, but I think it is just too big a headache to try and guess who it will be each week.

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