Studs

Michael Vick, QB, PHI – Vick is proving to be a very serious threat for fantasy owners after another huge game on Sunday.  In Philadelphia, Vick has more weapons than he has ever had before in his career and appears to have matured as a pocket passer.  This makes Vick even more frustrating for opposing defenses because he still has the speed to extend plays and make runs that no one else in football can.  I think it is reasonable to expect Vick to be a top 10 fantasy QB unless things take a dramatic downward spiral.

Kyle Orton, QB, DEN – Going up against the high-powered Colts offense Orton and the Broncos were forced to try and keep up with their aerial attack.  Even though they lost I was really impressed with the Broncos’ ability to stretch the field as Orton totaled a career-best 476 yards.  He only got one TD though and the team was terrible at running without Knowshon Moreno in the lineup.  Orton will be an efficient QB throughout the season if you have a bye-week need or injury.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Hillis has done what almost no running back in football has been able to do in a few years, run for over 100 yards against the Ravens.  This is quite an astonishing feat to be honest, but Jerome Harrison is likely to see a lot of carries when he is healthy.  Hillis should be considered a flex play from here on out, but he is the RB I would rather own from Cleveland after that game.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - I was big on a lot of the Ravens but with Ray Rice getting hurt and Boldin shredding the Browns secondary, there was not much room for anyone else on the Ravens offense to be productive.  Anquan pulled in 142 yards and THREE TDs in an a surprisingly close win for the Ravens.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – I had him on my love list this week and even with passing TDs Mendenhall was still able to find the end zone himself as well as get up over 100 yards.

Austin Collie, WR, IND – With Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon gone and Champ Bailey shadowing Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie is a beast.  It is going to be very interesting to see how the depth chart ends up once Gonzalez and Garcon come back.  If Collie can win the number 2 job, he will be what I thought Garcon was going to be… a top 15 receiver.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – A lot of people doubted DJax’s ability to make big plays without Donovan McNabb at QB.  Initially I thought Vick at QB was going to be worse for Jackson than Kolb would have been, but with Vick’s new-found poise in the pocket Jackson should be able to make these big plays almost as consistently as last season.

Louis Murphy, WR, OAK – We have been waiting quite a while for one receiver in Oakland to step up and earn the top spot and it appears that it will be Murphy.  After back to back good games Murphy should be able to fill the role of WR3 or flex play.

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ – Sanchez has no other options for mid range passing plays and it appears that Keller is more than up to the task.  Keller has been a real surprise for anyone brave enough to take a chance on him and with Santonio Holmes being a deep threat, I don’t see his return as much of threat to Keller’s number of targets.

Duds

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears are the real deal and I am not concerned about Forte down the stretch, but this week he was only able to get fantasy owners 3 points.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – Lance Moore stole the show in a shocking Saints home loss to the Falcons.  I still view Colston as the best WR2 in fantasy football despite only getting 4 catches for 25 yards.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – The Cowboys offense finally looked like we thought they would and Austin has his first bad game of the season.  Roy Williams did not likely transform into a reliable receiver overnight so I cannot see him cutting into the work that Austin would normally get.  Houston consistently double teamed Austin and considering it was not an effective strategy I would not expect too many teams to focus on him that much.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – I am still shocked that LT is the best RB in New York, but I do expect that to change as the end of the season approaches and LT wears down due to age.  Don’t start him unless you have to, but definitely don’t get rid of him.

Carson Palmer, QB, CIN – I know Ochocino is the more-often-started fantasy player, but his lack of production is the fault of Palmer and the reason I think Chad’s owners should try and trade him.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Matt Moore was at least able to use his best weapon effectively once per game, but Clausen will have brighter days ahead and I am not panicking on Smith yet.

Michael Crabtree, WR, SF – I don’t know what else to say, other than the 49ers suck.  I was confident they would win their division and it is bad enough that it is still a possibility.  I don’t agree with firing their Offensive Coordinator, but don’t drop Crabtree yet unless you can work him into a good trade.

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Pickups

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – As long as Mike Shanahan is coaching in this league there will be some great waiver wire pick-ups at running back.  Torain tied Portis at 7 carries and while neither looked particularly good, each of them was able to rip off a big gain.  The Redskins as a whole looked pretty inept most of the game as they suffered a loss on the road against the Rams.  Bad weeks happen and while you still can’t start any of the Redskins running backs Torain and Portis should be on a roster as one of them will end up getting the majority of the work.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL - We cannot expect this kind of performance from Williams OR Austin down the stretch, but Williams may just not be useless after all.  While he did take the workload of Miles Austin this week, he will mostly cut into Dez Bryant’s production if he can remain a factor in this offense.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – Belichick remains true to form and after recently losing 2 of their top running backs the Patriots still deployed a committee of four running backs and being against the Bills they were all effective. BJGE (get used to it) by far led the team with 16 carries and fell just short of 100 yards (including a TD).  Given the soft match up and the likelihood that the Patriots feature someone else next week I wouldn’t start any of them, but Taylor and Green-Ellis deserve a spot on someones roster.

Laurence Maroney, RB, DEN – Once we found out that Moreno was going to miss the game due to his hamstring injury Correll Buckhalter became a very popular late-week pickup that was expected to do well against a Colts defense that had not been good at stuffing the run.  While he did not do well, averaging 2 yards per carry on 12 carries it is clear that his ex-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is more comfortable with Maroney as the lead back.

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ - Hard to argue with his current production, but down the stretch Santonio Holmes will be the primary target for Sanchez and the Jets passing game.  Keller will remain a red zone target for Sanchez and could end up a top 10 TE on the season.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, NE - PPR owners that might need a TE do not need to look any further than this guy.  What really impressed me in this game was the end-around Hernandez took for a 13 yard game on the opening drive.  He looked like Wes Welker for a second there.  If you aren’t in a PPR league Keller is a better pick-up until Hernandez can prove he is able to find the end zone.

Dump List

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE – The Browns offense was more effective against this tough Ravens D than the Jets was this week and Massaquoi was not able to catch a pass.  Cribbs is the receiver that I want in Cleveland and he is almost definitely available unless your league counts return yards.

Carson Palmer, QB, CIN – The Panthers struggled all game and the Bengals leaned heavily on Cedric Benson who was very effective in week 3. Even with the success of Benson Palmer was unable to make either “superstar” wide receiver fantasy-relevant.  This once-great QB’s career is over and while they do not have any better options for this year, I expect the Bengals to target a QB early in next year’s draft.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – Lynch is the RB to own in Buffalo (other than Spiller of course!) and since the Bills offense won’t get any better than they were this week and either a trade or an injury will likely need to happen before you would consider using Jackson again this season.

Correll Buckhalter, RB, DEN – It is clear that 3rd down back is the only role Josh McDaniels intends to use Buckhalter in.  4 carries is not enough to be productive.

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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The Bengals were a heart wrenching team last season.  They won every game against divisional opponents with a devastating running game and stout defense.  Late in the year a team member passed away, and the team seemed to never recover from that.  They lost two consecutive games to the New York Jets in week 17 and then in the playoffs to end the season and left us all wondering if Carson Palmer has enough left in the tank to try and make one last playoff run.  Cedric Benson will continue to be the driving force of the offense and the addition of Antonio Bryant should give the passing game a significant boost as well.  I am torn about the allegations made against Benson recently.  It took quite a long time to hear about it which leads me to believe the incident was pretty low key.  I am an innocent until proven guilty kinda guy and will be treating the situation as though he wont miss any time.

Top Fantasy Players

Cedric Benson – This guy was robbed of comeback player of the year last year because of the league’s love affair with Tom Brady.  Benson was a workhorse for the Bengals, he carried the team to one of the best regular seasons they have ever seen.  Benson will not have quite as productive of a season, but should be a great RB2 option.

Chad Ochocinco – I know, he talks better than he catches. With that said he still catches pretty damn well, and now there is a very talented WR on the other side of the ball in Antonio Bryant.  Chad may just have his best season in a while… assuming I am wrong about Carson Palmer being done playing competitively in this league.

Antonio Bryant – Sleeper Alert! Bryant was a WR3 or flex option when he played in Tampa Bay, and now he upgrades offenses and quarterbacks.  With a back like Benson there is no way defenses will be scheming against the number 2 receiver.

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This is an interesting time to do some scouting very early for next year’s fantasy football team and now is the best time to start taking notes on players that made the Playoffs.

Among the biggest stand-out teams in this year’s playoffs are the New York Jets.  The player everyone will want to know about is Mark Sanchez, and I don’t see any way that Sanchez is a viable fantasy option outside of very deep formats.  The forecast that I see for him is similar to that of Joe Flacco.  His performance this season was streaky, but he made plays when it mattered most and he will continue to do so.  I think the Jets are likely to repeat a playoff berth and possibly even win the division.  With that said the player I see making the biggest impact on fantasy rosters next season is Shonn Greene.  The way Ryan and the Jets used him at the end of the season led me to believe that Thomas Jones was worn out.  I would expect Greene to take the majority of the work starting early next year so that Jones is able to contribute the entire season.  I envision Jones getting most the short yardage work and splitting goal-line carries with Greene, who will take up the primary rushing role.  Braylon Edwards will likely remain a Jet going into next season but when you think about drafting him think about the pass that bounced off his face mask in the the open field against Buffalo, because no matter who throws the ball Edwards has a problem with drops.

Another team that I felt stood out was the Baltimore Ravens.  With how young Flacco is it would be hard for them to be playing instead of Manning and the Colts, but all this post-season time he is seeing early in his career will help him to develop into a premiere QB in the league.  He may not yet be a starting Fantasy Football QB but that is not much his fault… If the Ravens can get some deeper talent at WR he will end up top 10 at his position next season.  Ray Rice never slowed down, all season.  He gained respect among Fantasy owners every time he touched the football this season and the Playoffs was no different.  He is a threat in both dimensions of the offense and will mature with the rest of that offensive unit.  I also respect the Ravens because of their Defense, which at times struggled and faced injuries to big play-makers but they kept Flacco and their offense in almost every game and they will lead the Ravens back to the Playoffs again next year.

The biggest disappointment this post season was the Cincinnati Bungals.  They swept their division by playing smart and disciplined in all three phases and with a punishing run game.  These are the most important elements to playoff football, but they still broke down at the end and took an early exit against the Jets.  I saw great things come from the Bengals all season and after the unfortunate passing of their teammate, they never quite seemed the same.  Not that this is why, but it definitely crushed the momentum they had built for themselves and following that incident Cedric Benson was ROBBED of Comeback Player of the Year and they were snubbed by the Pro Bowl.  All these distractions broke the focus of the team down and cost them a chance to make a deep run into the playoffs.  Next season they are hopefully able to retain focus deep into the year and Palmer has one last shot to win a Super Bowl because after that they may need a new QB.

Hard to call losing with such a profound effort a disappointment but I expected the Packers to go deep this year, not out in the first round.  It made for a fitting end to Warner’s career who is too often forgotten as one of the most incredible football players of our time, but I view it like the Packers do, a loss, and a big one.  Rodgers has yet to step up and really fill the shoes of Favre, and lasting long enough to beat him (or even face him) in the Playoffs would have done just that.  Next year will be another phenomenal fantasy campaign for Rodgers and a fair few Packers, but that is little consolation if they are one and done in the post season again next season.

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