Love

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – This isn’t a matter of me changing my mind or jumping to a conclusion. I feel as though I have been very level-headed and consistent in my analysis of RG3 thus far.  The reason that Griffen is even STARTABLE is not his arm, rather his legs.  Just as with Tebow being a top 10 guy at the end of last season, the consistency that 50 or so rushing yards provides a quarterback is undeniable. That yardage is worth two points throwing but 5  points with his feet. The reason that I have the rookie in my top 3 for this week is the match up; Tampa Bay is the absolute worst pass defense in the league over three weeks.  They are also the absolute BEST rush defense.  Now your saying “I thought RG3′s value was dependent on running the ball?!” It is but defending a QB is a lot different than defending the standard rushing threat and the stats on this defense are still skewed by the 10 yard rushing day of the Panthers in week 1. You can’t bench this guy this week unless you own Rodgers or Brady, who I simply refuse to bench for any reason still.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – All the concerns aside, this week I have none.  Buffalo’s new defensive scheme has not really clicked with the guys on the feild yet and except for against the Chiefs, they really haven’t held anyone down yet. They HAVE made strides each week but the play in the secondary has been poor and the only chance they will have at containing the Pats is to pressure Brady.  When Brady gets pressure, they run a lot of short passing routes to Welker. This game has the potential to be the highest fantasy point total of the season for all Patriot weapons in the passing game.

Doug Martin, RB, TB – What the Redskins dealt with the last two weeks is what I believe will be the norm.  A high-scoring game where the Skins’ defense just craps out on them by the end.  Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo were the best two players on the front seven of Washington and since they are both on IR, all bets are off.  It will at least take a couple of months for them to fill these holes and become capable of stuffing the run.  Martin may not have been a stat-machine thus far but he has looked really good on film and is due a break out performance VERY soon. I believe it will be this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, CAR – The Falcons at home are just one of the most appealing offenses for fantasy owners. The dome provides perfect conditions to move the ball in the air and even outdoors, these Falcons have been nothing short of impressive thus far.  With New Orleans three games back already, the division is theirs for the taking and they will be thought of as the best team in the NFC before long if San Francisco doesn’t get back on track immediately. He’s in that elite class as far as I am concerned for as long as Cam and Stafford are still struggling.

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – He is a VERY hit or miss guy, so I wouldn’t fall-over if he literally had zero points on Monday. This is why he didn’t crack the top 20. The match up dictates that you’ve got to get him in your lineup though.  I’ve already talked about the injuries in the front-seven but Orakpo was by and far the best pass rusher the Skins had

Cedric Benson, RB, GB – He really hasn’t looked too impressive yet. He had a nice game and the Packers are definitely using him so that is enough when you play against the worst rush defense in the league.  New Orleans has allowed big games to running backs each week thus far and the team is just in turmoil right now. Green Bay is mad about the “loss” to the Seahawks on Monday night and they are finally getting back to regular, regular-season games. By that I mean not in prime-time, rather on Sunday afternoon.  Don’t over-think it here, It is a pretty safe bet to start a running back whose opponent is allowing an average of 215 yards per game on the ground.

Hate

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – Last week was his best week and it’s not that I actually hate the guy, I just want to caution his owners here.  This is a RUN-FIRST team…Don’t forget.  Don’t get upset that he was on your bench for the big week and try and get him in there this week in a good match-up. Good match-ups scare me more here because I am so worried that the Texans just run the ball down the throat of the Titans the entire game with both backs and Schaub gets almost nothing done.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I hate you.  Your not going to fool me again, Jay. He’s talented enough to have a good game this week but I want Forte back and some consistent numbers before I trust Cutler as a top 10 guy again. Also, the Cowboys defense has been very good this year and is among the most underrated defenses in the league.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – He’s fallen to a flex-play, surprisingly.  While I believe that he and the Packers offense will rebound well this season, I want to know more about how they are going to use these guys before I consider him the WR2 I expected him to be.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – Despite all the scoring that I think is going to happen in this game, I’d have to say to just bench Ridley this week if you’ve got a good roster.  The Pats really seemed back to a committee in the backfield against the Ravens and the way to beat my Bills is vertically down the field. Shh, don’t tell the Patriots.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – He might still rank as a flex-option but that is only because of the bye weeks.  Britt looked better last week and if he had a good match-up i’d rank him as a really solid flex-guy but try and avoid using him against the Texans, who just bottle up Demaryius Thomas last week.

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Studs

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – He only had three catches but when one of them is a 99 yard TD grab, it’s a good day regardless. Cruz had 167 yards and a score on those three catches in a BIG win for the Giants.  He will need another big win next week against the Cowboys to make the playoffs and Cruz will remain a must-start and one of the biggest free agency acquisitions of the 2011 season.

Bills, D/ST, BUF – The Buffalo defense started the season as an incredibly opportunistic unit that forced an absurd amount of interceptions and turnovers.  Going into this game, Tim Tebow had just 5 interceptions on his entire career and yet he had 4 in this game.  The only thing I take from this game is the same thing I took from the Bills-Patriots game earlier in the season; The Bills defense has some great pieces in place for the future and they faced a QB having an off day.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – The Packers bounced back quick against the Bears this week and did so on the arm of Aaron Rodgers as normal.  They were still without Greg Jennings but Nelson stepped up in a big way. Nelson was over 100 yards with 2 scores and really rewarded his fantasy-owners that stuck by him the past couple weeks.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – Spiller just keeps getting better with each passing game.  People were eager to call him a bust but there was just no reason to do so as he wasn’t given a chance to succeed behind Fred Jackson.  Since Jackson went on IR and Spiller took over, he has gotten better with each passing game. Expect that to continue next week against a poor Patriots secondary.

Joe Webb, QB, MIN – The Vikings were playing mediocre football when Christian Ponder left the game this week with a concussion and Joe Webb stepped in. Webb attempted just 5 passes but still got to 20 fantasy points with 4 completions for 84 yards and 2 passing TDs.  He also had 5 carries for 34 yards and another TD.  Webb is a playmaker and will be a bit “feast or famine” when he plays.  But if your in a 2 QB league or able to play a QB in your flex spot, Webb might be a solid play in your week 17 super bowl.

Duds

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – The Bengals had a soft match up against the Cardinals this week and they won to keep their playoff hopes alive. Benson on the other hand only had 50 yards on the ground and yet with two lost fumbles, his fantasy owners got just one fantasy point. Huge disappointment.

A.J. Green, WR, CIN – Clearly the Bengals relied on some unusual suspects this week in their win, with the 2nd offensive star showing up on my Duds list.  Green had been a huge offensive star for the Bengals and had beaten almost every match up that he had faced this season.  He did not get the better of Patrick Peterson however and had just 25 yards receiving. He also had 25 yards rushing to add a couple extra points in there but four points is disappointing.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – After fumbling the opening snap of the game, Blount didn’t see the field much Sunday.  Head coach Maurice Morris said ”To not get that play executed on the first play of the football game is unacceptable” and he is right.  He also said that he won’t give up on Blount but his fantasy owners should next week.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – The Panthers won big and Smith was a big part of their turn-around season.  He was not a big part of this win though. Just two fantasy points.  He was never the most consistent receiver but you should still be starting him next week if your still alive.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, NE – You don’t need me to tell you that starting the Law Firm is really risky these days but just one fantasy point is a huge disappointment.  I know he is in a committee system but he used to see the lion’s share of the work. He doesn’t always get that anymore.

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Love

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – Wells has had a very solid season in spite of some injuries.  When he has been in there, his production can not be denied. He did have a bad week in week 14 but everyone has against San Francisco this season and I am ready to look past it. Joe Haden will be locked up on Larry Fitzgerald, limiting his impact on the game significantly. Arizona is likely going to get another win this week on the back of Wells.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – With Greg Jennings on the sidelines for this coming game, Rodgers will be sure to look towards Jordy Nelson and all the rest of his receivers a bit more often.  The match-up is pretty good against the Chiefs and while we may see the starters on the bench by the 4th quarter again but I think all your Packers are good for a start this week regardless.

Tim Tebow, QB, DEN – There is no softer secondary in the NFL than New England’s.  Tebow is very unlikely to get a win this week but I do think he is very likely to have his highest fantasy point total of the season anyways.  Denver’s grind-it-out offense almost definitely can’t outscore the Pats and Brady but they will limit their production and keep it competitive.  This could be a 350+ yard passing day for the promising second year QB.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – The Bengals are on a two game losing streak and are looking to cling to their playoff hopes, which are fading fast, against the league’s worst rush defense. They should have little trouble righting the ship against the Rams, who have been inept all season and especially on defense. Benson is sure to play a big role in this game and is a must-start this week for your playoff match up.

Brandon Marshall, WR, MIA – I expect Miami to focus on the ground game early on and it should be effective against the Bills’ soft defense that has really missed Kyle Williams since he went on IR. This is going to open up the passing game and Marshall should have little trouble racking up stats, especially since Buffalo stopped forcing all the turnovers they were able to cause early in the year.

Felix Jones, RB, DAL – With DeMarco Murray on IR, the running game is now in the hands of Felix.  He handled himself well with a good match up last week and has another this week against the Buccaneers, who have allowed an average of 23.5 yards per game to opposing RBs.  You shouldn’t expect him to top 20 but it is possible and he will do just fine for a play as an RB2 this week.

Hate

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – He has had a disappointing season and plays the 9ers this week, who are by and far the best rush defense in the league. He fell outside my top 20 so don’t hesitate to put him on your bench if you have better options.

Plaxico Burress, WR, NYJ – I am down on both of the Jets’ receivers this week due to the depth of the Eagles’ secondary. With Vick back the Eagles offense is able to stay on the field more and limit opportunities against their defense too.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – Houston may be without some of their most important offensive weapons but their defense is still in-tact and playing great. The Panthers’ running backs have been thoroughly un-impressive this season and that is not likely to change with such a tough match up in front of them.  Lower expectations on all Panthers this week.

DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – He rebounded slightly last week but it wasn’t a huge performance and he is on Revis Island this week.  He might draw some added coverage from Antonio Cromartie because Cromartie is slightly better defending vertical routes, which Jackson runs more often than not.

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Question 1: Asked by @E_RICHT5F3LD

There are a ton of options at QB in my league who should I go with? Tebow, Moore, Sanchez, Smith, Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick or Rivers.

Answer

I would have to say that it’s Tebow time!  Unless your league has some goofy scoring, I would take the consistency that Tebow provides.  His rushing ability has made it so that he is able to put up a solid point total every week.  This week he faces off against a tough Bears D but they should be able to wear down Chicago’s defense by keeping their offense off the field.  Without Cutler or Forte to help extend drives and win the field position battle on offense, I don’t see how they are able to bottle up the consistent and punishing run-game of the Broncos.

Question 2: Asked by @JoshVitale

Who do I start at Flex: Plaxico, Benson, D.Moore or K.Smith (if healthy)? Or should I just quit #fantasyfootball?

Answer

Quitters never prosper Josh… Play Benson.  He has a rough match up and while he is probably going to have a mediocre at best week, he is a feature back and therefore will see enough carries to make him worth the start.  We can reasonably expect A.J. Green to force Houston to respect the deep ball and this will open a few running lanes for Benson.  Whether or not he disappoints will come down to whether or not he punches one in but I think you have to play him in the playoffs, where risks tend to back fire.

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Giants at Cowboys

If your a football fan, you have to watch this game.  The Giants and Cowboys have to play each other twice still and Dallas has just a one game lead for first place in the NFC East. New York lost to the Packers last week and the Cowboys had a HUGE opportunity to go up by two games against the Arizona Cardinals but they blew it and lost in overtime.  The Giants have had a lot of trouble stopping opposing running backs over the past month to month and a half as teams have really forced the running game in an effort to slow the elite pass rush of New York. Last week the Cowboys made a concerted effort to get Felix Jones more involved and this limited the number of carries that DeMarco Murray saw.  This strategy led to a disappointing performance for both backs and by the end of the game, it was back to the DeMarco Murray show but it was just too late. On the flip-side the Giants have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL and fantasy-owners can go ahead and expect the top 10 performances of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to continue against a very average Cowboys secondary that is currently ranked 14th in the league. The bottom line for fantasy owners is that all the offensive players that you have been starting have to be started again.  Some crazy things happen when two NFC East teams face off and when the playoff implications are THIS high, I think we can expect more of a shoot-out than a defensive struggle over field position.  Miles Austin should be active in this game assuming he finds a way to practice without a setback but I think the Cowboys will continue to use Laurent Robinson in some of the 2 wide receiver sets.  I like the Cowboys to squeak out a win here after such a disappointing game last week with a heavy dose of DeMarco Murray in the running game to keep Eli Manning and his slew of receivers on the sideline.

Texans at Bengals

I hope you like defense because your going to see it in this game.  Despite adding Jake Delhomme and Jeff Garcia to the roster, Houston will continue to start T.J. Yates at QB and rely on him limiting mistakes and taking what the Bengals defense give him.  This game will be about field position and field goals and as a result, you have to downgrade all your fantasy options out of this game.  Arian Foster and A.J. Green remain must-starts due to their track record of performing admirably regardless of match up and to a lesser extent, Cedric Benson also retains enough value to be a decent starter this week.  A.J. Green has been incredibly consistent and has been able to beat every secondary deep with one exception, The 49ers back in week 3.  Houston’s defense has been great this season and is one of the best that Green will have to play this season but after remaining a top 10 receiver against the Steelers twice and the Browns, who are surprisingly the best pass defense in the NFL so far this season, I am not going to bench him now.  Andy Dalton however is not likely to do much more than find Green on one big play so I would definitely look elsewhere as opposed to starting Dalton. Anyone not mentioned needs to be left on your bench unless they are a kicker and even the guys that are mentioned as starters anyways are easily capable of being a disappointment so tread carefully and hope your studs come out of this game with a decent number of points.  I like the Bengals to win this CLOSE game because they are mildly able to pass the ball and eventually Benson will wear out this Texans defense.

Bears at Broncos

Speaking of defensive match-ups… The offense-less Bears are facing off against the story of the past month named Tim Tebow.  Tebow has just been winning games in whatever way has been available to him.  This game could easily be 6-3 going into the 4th quarter (or Tebow-time) and yet by the time it is all said and done, Tebow should be in the area of 20 fantasy points.  Regardless of how well Tebow plays, his ability to run the ball for positive yardage every time he tries translates into a very consistent fantasy QB.  Most leagues also only give 4 points for a passing TD so when Tebow runs one in, it means an extra 2 points.  Tebow remains a top 10 guy for fantasy owners and Willis McGahee is also a very quality RB2 option despite the rough match up.  I think the grind-it-out style of the Broncos will eventually break the Bears D after their offense gets almost nothing accomplished on the game.  I wouldn’t start a single Bear on offense unless you lost Forte and are desperate for an RB, then you can play Barber but do NOT expect much at all from him. Eric Decker is still a poor flex-play option for standard leagues as he is the most likely of the Broncos receivers to catch a deep ball.  Make Thomas have a big game in consecutive weeks before you risk starting him in the playoffs. The Broncos continue their unpredictable run for the divisional title and win this one.

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Bengals at Steelers

The Bengals have been one of my favorite teams to watch thus far this season.  They have one of the most prolific rookie QB to rookie WR combinations ever as well as a solid running game to compliment one of the best and most complete defenses in the NFL. Despite being in the middle of 4 games against their division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, if the season ended today, the Bengals would be in the playoffs. They will need a big win this week against the Steelers to keep the Jets and Tim Tebow in the rear-view mirror and they certainly have a good shot at it. The status of Troy Polamalu could easily tell the tale of how this game will go.  AJ Green will be able to blow the top off of the coverage a few times without Troy and his hair out there on Sunday and this season teams have been able to run against the Steelers with limited success. Pittsburgh on the other hand had issues moving the ball on offense against the Chiefs last week and this has me far from confident that they can find a way to win this game.  I am going to follow my gut and take the underdog Bengals to win a very close game.  Cedric Benson falls JUST outside my top 20 (to 21st) in my running back rankings, which makes him a great flex option or passable RB2. I am continuing to consider AJ Green matchup-proof still and kept him inside my top 20 this week at wide receiver. Rashard Mendenhall has proven to be nothing more than an RB2 this season and I ranked him on the low-end of my top 20 against the 5th best rush defense in the NFL. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown were unaffected by the match up when doing my rankings so you can start them confidently in whatever role you have been using them in.  Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of upside and he remains a low-end starting QB this week.

Packers at Giants

The Giants are in a dog fight over the NFC East title and this game is huge for them.  Unfortunately this is also one of the two games remaining where the Packers can reasonably be beaten.  I am obviously going to put my money on Green Bay but if they win this one, I only see the Lions in week 17 as the only team capable of beating them. I expect Green Bay to play for the undefeated season as they remain the best and among the least injured teams in the league. The Giants on the other hand have had a variety of injuries but have persevered through them and sit one game behind Dallas for the division lead. Neither team has a defense that scares me at all and surprisingly, the Packers are the 31st ranked pass defense in the league.  This is helped by the fact that they always have a sizable lead late and teams are throwing in desperation to try and play catch-up.  I think Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can be started with supreme confidence in this game as junk-time should be very good to them at least. Brandon Jacobs should be rendered irrelevant by the time the 4th quarter comes around and the duo of Starks and Grant for Green Bay has not been worth much attention for fantasy owners, so stay away.

Lions at Saints

The Lions have an opportunity to jump ahead of Chicago in the wild card race now that Caleb Hanie is at the helm for the Bears.  It won’t be easy this week against the Saints, who have really hit their stride in recent weeks.  Last Monday, the Saints dismantled the Giants and I honestly expect another convincing win for Brees. Detroit seems to have issues pushing the ball down field when they don’t have balance with the running game.  Teams have been able to roll coverage to Calvin Johnson and contain him in order to try and force someone else to make the big play.  This formula has worked better for some teams than others but I think it works very well for the Saints this week, who are bound to score plenty of points on offense.  Neither defense scares me from a fantasy-owners stand point, so you can go ahead and start your QBs and WRs with confidence.   Don’t bother with any of the running backs unless you are really desperate. James Jones is the most questionable receiver in this game and I think you have to play him if your light on options and are looking for a high-upside player that can beat a really high scoring opponent.

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Bengals at Ravens

I am fast becoming a huge Bengals fan.  I thought they were foolish for cutting Palmer from the team and holding out on trading him.  I thought they were forfeiting the season in favor of the future and didn’t quite understand why. Well, all their “questionable” decisions turned out to be the right one as they got a first round pick for Palmer by the end and maybe a second.  They are still a wild-card contender with Dalton and I’m not 100% that Palmer would have done as well as Dalton. I was very impressed with how well the Bengals D held up against the Steelers,  they gave the offense a chance to win and considering they were facing one of the top teams in the AFC, we have to take notice.  I am expecting Cinci to get an upset this week and bottle up Ray Rice for the most part.  If this game comes down to Flacco’s arm, I don’t think Baltimore will be able to score enough points to out-do Dalton, Green and Benson.  I look for more than each team’s fair share of turnovers and simply think that Cinci will do a better job of capitalizing on these possession changes and that makes all the difference in this one.  Expect a close, hard fought game. I am lowering my expectations of all offensive players in this game due to the quality of defense that we will see but Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin still should be started in their usual roles.  I expect AJ Green to play in this game and I believe that he is match-up proof and still should be good for a decent yardage total and a score as well. This will be a must-watch game for true football fans and people who like stout defenses.

Titans at Falcons

Christmas came early for the Titans when Matt Schaub was lost for the regular season.  Tennessee has a serious chance to make a push for the division title but has a very tough game this week on the road against the Falcons.  This season Atlanta has not been such a powerhouse on their home-turf but there is no denying that they still do play considerably better at home.  I was very impressed with how well the Falcons shut down the running game of the Saints and I expect them to do the same this week.  This game will be decided on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck.  He needs to be efficient pushing the ball down field despite how ineffective I expect Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer to be.  Damian Williams should be featured more as the #1 receiver and I think this will open up things for Nate Washington quite a bit and will really help him regain some of the fantasy-value he had when Kenny Britt was on the field.  Atlanta will be shoving Michael Turner down the Titans’ collective throat and limiting Hasselbeck’s chances to connect on that big-play.  Because I only see one of these teams being effective on the ground, I have to pick Atlanta to win this game.  I don’t think it is a blow-out, but I do believe that Atlanta will have control over the game from start to finish and it will be a fairly convincing victory for them.  Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner are all very solid starts this week and assuming Julio Jones does not play, Harry Douglas just may be a very sneaky flex-play this week as well.  I am using Nate Washington as a WR2 of flex play and only see CJ as a potential flex-play as well.  I would stay away from Damian Williams until we see how he does when opposing defenses are able to plan for him a bit more.

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Question 1: Asked by Valeri

Should I start Tim Tebow or Ryan Fitzpatrick this week? Thanks.

Answer

I have to give the nod to Tebow.  Fitz has a fairly decent match up against the Cowboys secondary but with LT Demetrius Bell still looking like he will be sidelined again, I am concerned about Demarcus Ware severely limiting his ability to extend plays.  This game will become about Fred Jackson for the Bills.  If Jackson gets going, the pass rush should need to respect him enough that Fitz can make the big play.  Tebow on the other hand IS the running threat that slows the pass rush and McGahee doesn’t hurt.  Even if Tebow plays bad, he is almost a lock for double digit points because he will be giving you 5-6 in rushing yards alone.

Question 2: Asked my @MFarrell21

Benson vs Pitt or Donald Brown vs the Jags with Addai likely out?

Answer

It has to be Benson. Not many guys see 20-30 touches per game and Benson has fresh legs after the Bye and his one game suspension.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better as of late, but they are far from as lights-out against the run as they have been in recent years.  Start Benson with confidence this week but do not expect too much from him.  Be happy with 70 yards and hopefully he finds the end zone.

Question 3: Asked by Zach

Hey so what’s your take on Ryan Mathews? He did not get nearly as many carries as I expected him to last night, probably a result of his injury and the Chargers wanting to ease him back into play – as you stated in your love/hate list; but what do you think about going forward, after a 10 day stretch do you think he will start getting the bulk of carries again?  I have Starks on my bench and depending on how he plays this next game, I may consider playing him over Mathews week 11.

Answer

I think Mathews is doing fine. He only had 6 carries, but I am not really surprised that they split the carries evenly. Both backs were running well and if Tolbert can be productive, he will see touches.  Mathews was averaging 5.7 yards per carry last night and had it not gotten out of hand and San Diego would have continued to pound the rock.  My only issue with Mathews is health so if he is active and practicing all week, I think you have to start him. Especially over Starks who is on a by far pass-first team and sharing some touches with Ryan Grant.

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Love

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – The Falcons need to prove that they are a Super Bowl contender this year and Turner has been their most consistent performer. Cam Newton has been a play maker and has been finding a way to put up numbers against EVERYONE he has played. With the Falcons’ defense not playing up to expectations either, I think a heavy dose of Turner is the best way for the Falcons to avoid an upset at home.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Austin is coming off an injury and I would expect him to have a slow start, but the Patriots score a ton of points and struggle to stop opposing QBs.  I don’t think Dallas wins this game, but Austin and Bryant should be in for big statistical performances as they will play from behind and have little trouble passing the ball.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – Last week was a bit of a let-down for Benson owners, but he ran well and was far from a dud. This week he goes against the Colts who have not been able to stop anyone on the ground all season. Benson sees a lot of carries and Cinci tries to run first to take pressure off Andy Dalton, who will hear the footsteps of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney all day.

Jake Ballard, TE, NYG – Buffalo struggles to defend opposing tight ends. Ballard has TD’s in two straight games and this is not something you can expect to continue after this week, but the numbers say that Ballard is likely to make it three games in a row this week against the Bills. He is still outside my top 10, but if you have to fill a gap for your bye week, Ballard has a pretty good shot at a nice statistical performance.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – He hasn’t been active much, but he looks like a punishing runner when he is. Thomas goes against the Jets this week who have just had a terrible run game as of late and with Matt Moore at QB, Thomas will be the focal point if he is able to go.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – Smith had a breakout game in week 3 and then people kind of seemed to forget about him.  He did put up a goose-egg against the Jets the following week, but Flacco looked for him a fair few times and on one play specifically he beat Revis deep. The throw was just a hair too far, but if it had connected we would be talking about him like a top 20 guy right now. He has only had just one game with fantasy points so I don’t think he is a really smart start but with bye weeks upon us, if your digging deep for a flex play… don’t just look past Smith.

Hate

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – I see a lot of people have Eli inside their top 10 QB’s and that is crazy to me. The Bills’ secondary has been playing great as of late and Eli has been known to struggle with turnovers.  Buffalo leads the NFL with 12 INTs on the season and three consecutive games with a pick 6. Eli will keep his receivers’ stats up there, but I think that interceptions will keep him from crossing the 20 point mark this week.

Tim Hightower, RB, WAS – It’s not about his talent and it’s not about the match up. We just simply don’t know how the carries will be divided. I expect Hightower to be the third down back and Torain to see the most work. But I would NEVER bet on how Shanahan will use his running backs. Hightower is a flex play at best this week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, OAK – Playing with a Raiders receiver is a lot like playing Russian roulette for fantasy owners. Heyward-Bey has seen a lot of targets as of late, but I am not going to think that the emotional performances from Sunday are likely to repeat themselves. I have written about Darrius before as well as Jacoby Ford, Chaz Schillens and Denarius Moore over the past few season and not one of them were able to do anything consistently. Jacoby Ford is the receiver I want to start from this team if I need one and it is because they use him in the running game.

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT – Redman is the best bet to see the goal line carries even if Mendenhall was active, but he is not too likely to see much more work no matter who is inactive. Dwyer was just a better runner last week and if Mendenhall doesn’t go, I would rather start Dwyer over Redman.

James Jones, WR, GB – Don’t let one big game cause you to bring a guy from free agency straight into your lineup.  Any receiver can have a big game with Aaron Rodgers at QB and last week was Jones’ turn.  Odds are it’ll be a few games before he manages to make such an impact again.  Jennings, Finley and Nelson are all going to see more targets.

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Love

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Chiefs looked bad on both sides of the ball last week against Buffalo and they also have officially lost Eric Berry for the season.  I expect a  lot of big plays for the Lions this week and with a receiver like Calvin Johnson, it’s easy to be excited about the Lions passing game for week 2.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – The Bills offense opened a lot of eyes in Week 1 when they trounced a Chiefs team that looks to be far from what they were last year.  With the Raiders traveling across the continent to play at 1 pm on Sunday, I think the Bills are very likely to start the season at 2-0.  The Raiders defense IS underrated in my opinion, but Johnson has just been fantastic since early last season and seems to always find a way to be a factor on the scoreboard.

Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – With the Broncos as opponents in Week 2, I think you’ll be hard pressed to keep Benson out of your lineup after a pretty great week 1. The Broncos allowed a total of 27 fantasy points to the Raiders running backs last week and Benson is pretty much the entire Bengal rushing attack.

Jermichael Finley, TE, GB – The Panthers impressed in Week 1 against the Cardinals in a losing effort, but I think we can all agree that the Packers are going to have an easy road to victory in week 2 against the Panthers. They simply do not have good enough linebackers to contain Finley, who is a match up nightmare for opposing defenses.

Rex Grossman, QB, WAS – This is by no way saying you should sit Big Ben or Matt Schaub for Grossman, but if your in a 2 QB league, why not play the guy whose opponent just let Cam Newton throw for over 420 yards?  It is worth noting that Rex looked pretty good against the Giants, who have a much better defense than the Cardinals do.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – Boy, the Steelers sure took one on the chin in week 1 and they look to rebound against Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks in week 2.  I think the Steelers will alleviate a lot of concerns in this game and I expect a big day from all the play makers.  They will also try to re-establish their identity as a run-first team in this one and Mendenhall should have a very nice outting for his fantasy owners.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – There aren’t too many guys out there as consistent as Megatron.  He is such a dominating receiver in the red zone and as I said in the Stafford section, with no Eric Berry, I don’t see the Chiefs as able to contain Calvin Johnson that well at all.

Hate

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons struggle last week against the Bears and with the Eagles in week two, it is not an ideal time to bet on a rebound.  The Eagles secondary looks more like an all-star team’s secondary and unless Turner has a big game, the passing game is not likely to hold up well either.  I didn’t have Ryan rated as a #1 QB, so hopefully you have someone else you can play until the match up is a bit more favorable.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – He did so bad in week 1 that I still expect him to do better and you should be starting him anyways, but just don’t have high hopes for a big game.  If he gets to double digit points, he did his job.

Danny Woodhead, RB, NE – He saw a lot more snaps than BenJarvus Green-Ellis did in week 1, but that won’t remain the case all season.  The guy to be featured will depend largely on the match up and against San Diego I expect the Pats to want a more physical, punishing runner.  And Law Firm will be getting all the goal line work anyways.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, DEN – Lloyd had a good game and I think he will be ok this week, I just don’t have any faith in the Denver offense anymore and under John Fox, it is going to be about establishing the run.  Which will be harder to do with Moreno banged up.

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