What a crazy start to the 2011 season. We saw proven, storied franchises collapse completely and we saw a rookie debut record from a class of QBs that no one was excited about. So lets get this week 1 recap started!

Studs

Tom Brady, QB, NE – Over 500 yards and 4 TDs. I’ll excuse the INT because he probably single-handedly won your week 1 match up if you had him.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton was not expected to be an immediate success in the NFL.  He came from an option-style offense after just one year and one NCAA championship. Many people, including myself, felt that he was not worth the number 1 overall draft pick.  24 completions on 37 attempts, 422 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. That shut me up. This yardage total is a record for rookie’s in their debut, beating out Peyton Manning’s first ever rookie performance.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL – Wow. Are the Raven’s that good or are the Steelers that bad? Honestly, probably neither.  But Rice’s performance was outstanding considering how dominant the Steelers defense has been.  He was certainly helped by 7 turnovers increasing his number of chances, but I am interested to see just how big of a season Rice will have running behind Vonta Leach.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Smith definitely helped Cam look good Sunday as he faced off against Patrick Peterson and made him look foolish all day in coverage. After last season, in my Year in Review article, I discussed how if Carolina could land a decent QB then Smith would return to fantasy relevance. I am still not betting on Newton’s consistency, but Newton sure looks like he will be enough to make Smith into a startable option for fantasy owners.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD – He may not have racked up too much yardage, but any fantasy owner loves to see a 3 TD performance and that’s what Tolbert did this week. He did appear to be hurt late in that game, but all reports have been great since the game and we can expect Tolbert to be at 100% for week 2.  His usage in the passing game and especially in the red zone makes Tolbert the clear guy to own of the Chargers running backs.  At least for now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Bears offense looks to be building off their success from last season and Forte is going to be a big part of that with his pass catching ability out of the backfield. I was surprised to see Khalil Bell get 10 carries in the win over the Falcons, but in a Mike Martz system, you want the guy that catches the ball so I am not concerned.  Especially not following 158 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN – I love to talk about this guy, I don’t think people are giving him the credit he deserves.  He tallied 136 yards on 5 catches and scored twice in Week 1.  This is going to be a season to remember for Britt and it will be without an elite QB.  This guy has a really bright future and will be a big part of your season if you were lucky enough to draft him.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – 150 yards on 22 carries? I guess he isn’t a one-year wonder.  While the match-up wasn’t great, neither was anyone else on the Raiders.  He will remain an integral part of the game plan and he is a number 1 caliber back in my opinion.

Chad Henne, QB, MIA – People might not have noticed exactly how good Henne was in a losing effort on Monday night.  His opponent Brady overshadowed him pretty bad, but Henne finished as the 2nd highest point total among all QB’s in the NFL in week 1 and should not be on free agency if you have serious QB concerns.

Duds

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben committed FIVE turnovers this week with three interceptions and two lost fumbles as the Steelers looked completely inept against division rival Baltimore Ravens.  A bad game doesn’t make me as nervous as the loss of right tackle Willie Colon for the season as the offensive line was weak already.  You need a good, servicable back up for Ben this year.

Vincent Jackson, WR, SD – Rivers ended up with a decent enough point total that he evades a spot on this list, but Rivers did not play that well in Week 1.  The Chargers are known to start slow and managed to claw their way to a win… but special teams hurt them again and Jackson was not a factor in the vertical passing game, which will need to change for the Chargers to be a Super Bowl contender as they hope to be.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Holding out as long as he did really slowed the start of the season for CJ2k as he had just 24 yards rushing and 25 receiving. I thought he was supposed to be one of the top playmakers in the NFL? I guess he’ll have to earn that pay check next week.  If you own him, your starting him.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – The Buccs have some work to do because despite how close the score looked at the end of the game, the Lions really controlled the game from start to finish and Blount was rendered ineffective by a need to pass to try and get back into the game.  Blount needs carries to get into a rhythm and wear down the defense so I am not too concerned, but we can expect at least a few more games like this by the end of the season.  He is still a solid RB2.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC – I kinda called this one, the Buffalo pass defense does not get enough credit and they really shut down the Chiefs in week 1.  I have concerns going forward for Bowe, but I had them before and he is no more than a low-end WR2 in my eyes.  He will drop further if KC can’t get their running game going either.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – The Falcons offense looked out-matched against the Bears D and Ryan was not a very effective passer in this game. I think the Falcons will get ti figured out and I am not overly concerned with Ryan going forward.

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Every few days I will be breaking down each position in fantasy football to help you get ready for draft day.  Since they get all the glory let’s get it started with the Quarterbacks.  I am also updating the rankings for each position the day that the I do the breakdown.  You can catch the QB ranks here.

The Top Two

When ranking QB’s for fantasy drafts there are really only two options for the number one spot, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.  Both of these guys are precision passers with a big arm and touch when it is needed.  Not much room for criticism when talking about either guy.  Personally, I think there will be almost no difference in production from these guys in the passing game.  I rank Aaron Rodgers at number one solely because of his rushing ability.  It is never much, but around the goal line Rodgers is very good about getting the TD one way or the other.  In standard scoring the rushing TD is worth more than the passing one.  I expect around 300 yards rushing on the year and 3-5 TD’s.

The Rest of the Elite

Ranks 3 – 7 on my rankings are as follows: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.  My best recommendation is that you wait for one of these guys on draft day.  Last year Aaron Rodgers had a huge lead in total fantasy points among QB’s, but that won’t be likely to happen twice.  Typically, the difference between the number 1 QB and number 10 QB is not quite as big of a difference as you would think. For example, I just talked about the huge lead Rodgers had on the number 2 guy last year (who was Drew Brees).  That lead was 47 points.  The difference between Brees (2nd highest scorer) and McNabb (10th highest scorer) was only 23 points!  After these five guys you should not be confident with starting anyone regardless of their match up.  If you do land one of these guys then I believe there will be no need to draft a backup QB, just pick someone up off of waivers for their bye week.  Using this strategy will allow you to pick an additional high-upside guy at RB or WR in the late rounds.

The Best of the Rest

Rounding out the rest of the “starting” fantasy QB’s are Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  This is where I would most like to make my QB selection for a standard scoring league.  My favorite QB to target in my drafts is Joe Flacco.  This guy is coming into his third year in the league.  It is time to put up or shut up for Joe, because he has the best set of offensive weapons any Baltimore Ravens QB has had at his disposal in a long time.  Flacco is a big sleeper for me this year because he has tools for every aspect of the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Dante Stallworth able to go over the middle and stretch the feild, Todd Heap and Derrick Mason for possession routes and short gains and we can’t forget about the element that Ray Rice brings to the passing attack out of the backfield.  Kevin Kolb has looked great in the first 2 preseason games and has even been able to involve DeSean Jackson in the intermediate routes which has me upgrading my expectations for both of them.  Jay Cutler is finally going to be playing in an offense that will use his strengths.  Mike Martz loves to stretch the field and pass it deep, I expect to see 30 – 40 passes per game.  I still foresee a lot of him getting hit and a throwing a similar number of interceptions… But he should have more yards and TD’s to make him a better QB in fantasy than he was last year.

The Rest

If you missed out on the top 10 QB’s that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world.  You will just now be left with the task of hunting the waiver wire for the guy playing against a terrible defense.  Among the best options in this group for you to scoop up on draft day are Brett Favre, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger.  There are serious reasons to be concerned with all of these guys.  Most people wouldn’t even put Chad Henne in this group, but with Brandon Marshall able to help him stretch the field everyone on offense will improve this year.  McNabb will be able to keep the Redskins offense on the field for longer drives.  He has an uncanny ability to buy time in the pocket to pick up crucial 3rd down conversions.  This means more plays, more fantasy points from any Redskins you may own.  I don’t think Eli will get his second 4,000 yard season this year, but he should go over 30 TD’s and have a similar total number of fantasy points.  I am afraid of Favre this year now that Sidney Rice is down for an extended block of time.

Sleepers

Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell.

Busts

Brett Favre, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez and Carson Palmer.

Recap

The QB pool is very deep this year, but there is a steep drop off outside the top 10.  If you are in a 12 or 14 team league do not be one of the teams left out of the elite QB’s.  There are about 8 of them so wait as long as you can without missing the boat.  There is no need to reach for Rodgers or Brees but if you pick really late in the first round snatch one up, the next pick is coming soon.

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Week 2 of the preseason is in the books and fantasy football drafts are coming up rather quickly.  As the preseason continues we all carry on our search for sleepers in this years draft.

Eagles vs Bengals

Kolb continues to look strong through week 2, but most surprising to me so far is the involvement of DeSean Jackson in the intermediate passing game.  The primary reason for DJax not being a part of the elite group of receivers this year is that when McNabb left the team so did the deep ball.  Not entirely, but not many people throw long balls like Donovan.  Kolb has been making completions to Jackson over the middle and inside of 20 yards with much more frequency than McNabb did.  This won’t upgrade Jackson in my rankings but it will hold him firm at number 9 and removes a lot of the doubt I had about his consistency. I have yet to see much of anything from LeSean McCoy and I am starting to expect very little from him.  I recommend not taking the risk on McCoy on draft day, not when guys like Joseph Addai and Ronnie Brown should still be available in the next round.

My dislike for Carson Palmer is still growing after this last game.  2 interceptions and a bad decision that got his star receiver leveled in a preseason game.  Good judgment.  Also, there is a lot of talk about how well T.O. has done thus far.  They are trying to get the fan base excited and as much as the fans may love 85, they won’t get excited about him catching balls in the preseason.  My expectations for T.O. are for him to be marginally better than last season.  Someone will be reaching for him on draft day, don’t let it be you.  Lastly, I want to point out that Bernard Scott should never go undrafted this year (except for maybe 8 team leagues).  He has performed well whenever given that chance and with Benson being such a workhorse he is bound to miss a game or two.

Redskins vs Ravens

Even though the ‘Skins were only able to put a field goal up on the board McNabb was able to demonstrate why players on this team will be fantasy-relevant again.  Throughout his time in the game McNabb was able to use his play-making ability to extend drives and keep the defense rested.  Being able to convert on third and long allows Portis to get more carries and receivers to get more catches and yards as well.  McNabb allows this team to have more offensive plays in a game than Campbell or any other option available to them.

The Ravens looked flat this week, even with Ray Rice on the field.  I am certainly not concerned about Flacco as the Redskins were among the better pass defenses in the league last year and they were a much worse team then they are now.  The only player on the Ravens that I do have concerns about is Derrick Mason. He has been hobbled by leg injuries through camp, is getting older and saw only one target on Thursday.  Flacco has a new toy to play with and he is good enough to make him forget that Mason is still on the field.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Henne is a great backup option for you this year.  I think he will develop into a top 10 QB by the end of the season, but there could be some growing pains early.  There weren’t any this week however… The Dolphins offense looked very strong and even incorporated Brandon Marshall quite nicely.  Look for Anthony Fasano in the late rounds if you really want a backup TE.  If anyone has the chance to do what Celek did last year, its this guy right here.

David Garrard was having a pretty good night before he got hurt and was pulled out of the exhibition game.  I have seen very little about his injury since it happened which leads me to think it is minor.  He has just enough skill to make Mike Sims-Walker a WR2 or flex play but Maurice Jones-Drew will remain the star of this offense.

Bears vs Raiders

We saw some good things from the Bears this week.  Forte had a nice TD run of 89 yards, which is a great example of how a Mike Martz offense creates holes in the opposing defense.  Cutler had a solid outing, no interceptions as well as finding Johnny Knox in the end zone in the second quarter.

The Raiders played good, solid football in all three phases of the game this week and won the game because of it.  This is a sign of good coaching and a franchise on its way back to prominence.  Not yet though, because there is not one receiver that can be relied on week-to-week.

Other Week 2 one-liners

Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are not to be taken lightly, they will perform in Vincent Jackson’s absence.

Ryan Mathews should be a consistent performing RB2.

The Cowboys will have a few bad offensive games until they solidify their offensive line.

Miles Austin will produce consistently anyway.

Thomas Jones – 3.63 YPC and a fumble, Jamaal Charles 5 YPC and 23 yards receiving… Stop drafting Thomas Jones above round 8 or 9.

Mike Williams should be drafted in a 12 team league.

Arrelious Benn should not be.

Hasselbeck has something left in the tank, but it’s not what it used to be.

Aaron Rodgers really should be everyone’s number 1 ranked Quarterback.

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The Miami Dolphins are a franchise on the rise.  They saw great progress with Chad Henne last season, and still have a tough punishing running game.  Tony Sporano has done what ever is necessary to keep his team competitive and he has done a great job thus far.  This off season has been no different with signing two particularly big name players in Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby.  They did lose Jason Taylor, but their biggest issue is at outside linebacker.  Many people are questioning the RB duo that has been nothing short of spectacular when healthy, but I am not one of those people.  In the mock drafts that I have done thus far Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have fallen quite far and have been great value picks.

Top Fantasy Players:

Chad Henne – I really like Henne as a backup QB this year and potential sleeper.  If you are in a position on draft day where you can’t get one of the top 5 or so QBs then you should target this 2^nd year QB in later rounds.

Brandon Marshall – Marshall is one hell of an athlete, and while his hip injury situation is a concern as far as career longevity is concerned, it will not be an issue this season.  I do not value Marshall as high as others do, because despite the fact that I think Henne will continue getting better that is a gamble.

Ronnie Brown – No surprise here, Brown is the feature back and takes snaps in the Wildcat offense.  Look for another great season from Brown and hopefully he’ll stay healthy which is all that can stop him.

Ricky Williams – He wont have quite the same explosiveness of the past few seasons due to aging, but his time off earlier in his career has done him well and he will remain one of the most productive backup running backs in the league.

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Cowboys at Saints – This is a match-up between a team struggling for a playoff birth and another team striving for a perfect season.  There is a lot of emotion involved in a game like this.  If the Cowboys lose to the perfect Saints their playoff hopes are all but gone, and many people with-in the organization will need to update resumes.  I actually think that this Cowboys offense is playing well and that despite everything that is stacked up against them, the Boys will find a way to win this one.  They are a desperate team that has struggled as of late, however good games from Romo and the receiving core could give the Saints their only loss of the year if they can force a couple turnovers on defense.  Upgrade Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush as this should be a game of big plays.

Dolphins at Titans – This is a battle for the inside track to the wild-card seed in the playoffs.  The Titans need to win out, and the Dolphins still have the division within their grasp, though they need some help from the Patriots to over take them.  Both teams are fighting for their lives and this always leads to some exciting football.  Williams owners should curb your expectations for him… he is still as a RB2 or a great flex option but he wont be having a huge yardage game this week.  Davone Bess is the best fantasy option at receiver from the Dolphins but you’re digging deep if your going there anyways because there are no big play threats in that receiving core which was built for Pennington and can’t take advantage of Henne’s deep ball ability.  Kenny Britt should be fine as a flex or WR3 play in 12 team leagues (or more) assuming VY is active, and of course Chris Johnson is the best back in fantasy this season and there is no reason that should change this week.

49ers at Eagles – DeSean Jackson is set to go off this week against a 9ers secondary vulnerable to the big play.  They beat up on the Cardinals because they got so much pressure, they wont have as much luck against this offensive line.  Gore is a great play at RB as last week there was an excellent balance in the San Francisco offense which is the environment that Gore thrives in.  Maclin is going to be inactive for this week so Jason Avant is a great play at WR this week, and Michael Crabtree is also a great play.  As this offense matures so does Crabtree, excellent flex option this week in what could be a shoot out.

Bengals at Chargers – Two AFC studs meet this weekend in a potential playoff preview.  The Chargers don’t lose in December, and the Bengals have only been beaten twice this year (I know they have three losses, I just don’t count that fluke play against Denver as being “beaten”) and are coming off a loss and want the momentum back for going into the playoffs.  The Chargers are pretty decent at stopping the run but Benson gets so many carries that he overcomes bad match-ups and he remains a good start this week.  Temper expectations on players in this one, as there are good defenses on the field and big plays wont come easy.  Vincent Jackson should stay on track as an elite receiver.

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