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Texans at Titans

Houston failed to run away with the division as I had thought they would and Tennessee actually sits in first at 3-2 with the Texans at 3-3.  The Titans got off to a VERY fast start when Kenny Britt was healthy and even with VERY limited production from Chris Johnson over the first three weeks. Johnson HAS had 12 fantasy points in two consecutive games to start to recoup some of his value but with where you drafted him and the size of his contract, I think we ALL can agree that one 100 yard rushing game is not good enough. Both defenses here are allowing just over 100 yards on the ground per game and I think that the Tate and Foster combo will prove to be too much for Tennessee to deal with.  Matt Schaub is listed as Questionable at the moment but assuming he plays, I like the Titans to win this game handily. I think Chris Johnson and Arian Foster are must starts this week, as per the usual. And Nate Washington and Jacoby Jones are viable plug-in guys for an owner in Bye week hell.  In deeper formats Hasselbeck might be OK, but this Texans secondary is legitimate under Wade Phillips and you should look elsewhere if possible.

Chargers at Jets

With the Chargers’ record being this good, this early and the fact that the Jets have gone to two straight AFC championship games… I could see this being a preview of the AFC Championship game.  One thing needs to happen in order for us to get to that point though; The Jets need to play a LOT better. Both on offense and defense, the Jets are not the team I thought they would be and it all starts with the running game. The recipe for playoff success is simple; Run the ball and stop the run. Obviously you need to be able to stretch the field vertically to compete with the Drew Brees’, Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s of the world, but nothing shuts these elite QBs down like a lot of time on the sideline. This is exactly why the Chargers are going to win this game and I am not convinced it will be close.  The Chargers are healthy on offense again with Antonio Gates looking to rejoin the list of Rivers’ targets on offense and the Bye week helped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert get back into playing shape.  With two backs that are more productive than Shonn Greene and the Jets defense appearing unable to contain the running game, I think that we will see very limited fantasy production from all of your New York Jets.  The one guy I do want to start from New York is Santonio Holmes because of junk-time stats after the Chargers have already run away with it. Bye weeks might force you to use Greene, but I feel like you are hoping for a goal line carry or two here so that you can at least get a TD out of him. I think Mathews and Gates are in for big games for San Diego, but don’t expect too much from VJax and Rivers despite the fact that your going to be playing them.

Bears at Buccaneers

This game, if you didn’t know, is being played at Wembley Stadium in London. Tampa has made this trip to play in London and they learned a thing or two the last time they did it. Don’t travel to London late in the week and face jet lag as well as your opponent… Tampa has been in London since Monday and holding practices in England all week. Chicago waited until today to make the trip and as a result, I think Tampa Bay has a serious advantage in this game.  You couldn’t make me bench Matt Forte at all this season but since Cutler and his receivers are risky under ideal circumstances, just leave them on the bench this week. Mike Williams clings to a top 20 spot in the rankings despite his hugely disappointing season thus far, but if this advantage holds true, one step is all a receiver needs to beat coverage deep and Freeman is still more than good enough to to recoup his fantasy value.  Earnest Graham is worth a play to fill-in for a bye week despite the weak match-up should Blount sit and it looks like he will. You shouldn’t look to this game for any deep or sneaky plays, but you should see solid outings from the guys that you have been counting on all year long.  I think Tampa gets the win as the “home team” and stays on top of their division.

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Chargers at Patriots

I love when these two teams meet up.  It may be a little better in the post-season, but that might still happen this year too.  The Chargers travel to the east coast to play in Foxboro and this is enough of an edge that I think the Patriots are going to win this game.  Despite winning last week, the Chargers still had special teams issues and Philip Rivers did not look that good in week 1.  Tom Brady on the other hand looked phenomenal in his season opener as the offense kept up the pressure throughout the game and just kept scoring points in any way they could.  For some reason the Chargers never seem to have their act together early on and I don’t see how they keep up with the Patriot’s machine.  I do not think that Ryan Mathews is a very viable starter this week as the passing game is likely to be the focal point for San Diego as they try and keep pace, but Tolbert’s involvement in the passing game makes him a weak RB2 or good flex play.  I feel like Vincent Jackson will have to be a factor in order for this game to be close and I would expect them to try and get him involved early and often.  Despite the quality of the Charger’s defense, you should be starting all your usual Patriots except Danny Woodhead, who is not likely to be used much outside of third downs.

Bears at Saints

People constantly want to discredit the Bears over the past few years, but shutting down Atlanta last week really opened my eyes.  The defense is a top 5 unit and Jay Cutler is growing into quite the gunslinger.  He is going to throw a couple INTs in each game but that is because of all the big plays that he is going for and fantasy owners should respect him for his ability to take risks.  I think it is too tall of a task for the Bears to win this game in New Orleans, but I am almost positive that they will be able to keep it competitive and this should be a great game to watch.  I am not downgrading anyone for the match up at this point however, the Saints RB’s are not start-able at this time and I am not big on Meachem or Henderson, despite the Colston injury.  Someone has to have a good game for the Saints in the receiving game, but good luck trying to figure out who it will be.  I personally think Graham will become the primary red zone target, so that just leaves it up to a game of chance to try and start the receiver that comes up with the big play for Brees. I wouldn’t start Jay Cutler either in this game as I think the Saint’s complex blitzing scheme will be able to exploit a weak Bears offensive line, but I am not too scared to start him if I normally would.  Forte is the key member of the Bears offense and the one guy that is always going to be worth a spot on your roster, so don’t be afraid to start him either.

Eagles at Falcons

Atlanta disappointed me by not being competitive against the Bears in week 1.  They looked out matched and were unable to keep up with Jay Cutler and the Mike Martz offense in place for Chicago.  I had high hopes for their defense this season and they disappointed me almost as much as the offense.  The Falcons are a much better team on the road and it all starts with Matt Ryan.  At home, in the dome, the Falcons looked to be unstoppable last season and I expect this to be the game of the week as the Eagles come to town. I feel like the Eagles’ superstar secondary will be more than capable of containing Roddy White and the rest of the Faclons’ receivers and the Philadelphia offense is too explosive for Michael Turner to be able to win this game for his team.  I think Vick and the Eagles are going to win a close game and it will likely not be as high scoring as we might think.  With that said you still have to start all the usual suspects, but I don’t see a big game from any of the Falcons on the horizon.

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Denver Broncos

The Broncos had the NFL’s 2^nd worst rush defense.  They lacked playmakers in their front seven to help Elvis Dumervil disrupt opposing offenses.  They allowed an absurd 154.6 yards per game on the ground and despite breakout seasons from a variety of offensive players… the Broncos were unable to finish better than 4-12.  This staggering disappointment for a team averaging 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game on offense led to the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, who really gave this team a boost in his first couple seasons.  Unfortunately, each season ended with a meltdown and no playoff appearance, so now John Fox is going to try his hand at running this Broncos franchise. Denver held the third overall draft pick and went with the best pure-pass rusher that this draft had to offer.  Von Miller is almost a sure-fire success at the NFL level and while it is hard to criticize the pick at all, I fully expected them to take Marcell Dareus to fix their issues with the running game.  This however, is not the way John Fox operates.  When he arrived in Carolina, he drafted Julius Peppers to build his defense around.  This is the role that Miller will fill in the John Fox scheme and we should expect him to flourish.  The Broncos ended up with two 2^nd round picks as well, taking Rahim Moore (FS) and Orlando Franklin (OL).  Moore is a great player and a good value where he was selected, but I do not feel that the need in the secondary was great enough to warrant this pick.  Taking Miller in the first meant this pick needed to be spent on the defensive line and no DL was taken by Denver until round 7.  At the end of the day, the Broncos got players that will contribute, but they did a poor job of matching picks with needs.  I would not expect to see a winning football team in Denver next season, since they are still unlikely to be able to stop the run.  I would also expect to see some long-time Broncos leave the team once the lock out is lifted as the Broncos try to rebuild under their new coach.

My Grade: B-

Kansas City Chiefs

The 2010 season was a breakout year for the entire Chiefs organization.  They led the league in rushing with a two-headed attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, with Dwayne Bowe finally being a playmaker and finishing the season with 15 touchdowns (just 3 behind the league’s leader, Arian Foster).  Going into this draft, the Chiefs needed to get impact players who could make a difference immediately. They managed to do that.  They drafted Jonathan Baldwin late in the first round to be a compliment to Bowe, as he was the only viable receiving threat they had at the receiver position.  Baldwin is 6’4’’, 228 lbs. and has incredible athletic ability for someone of that size.  The biggest knock on him thus far has been consistency, but if Haley and the Chiefs were able to get Dwayne Bowe’s act together, Baldwin should be able to benefit greatly from what this organization has to teach him.  Round two led to the selection of Rodney Hudson, a strong, intense interior offensive lineman.  This is really the last drastic need on offense for the Chiefs, who are now ready to go as far as Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel can take them.  With two picks in round three, the Chiefs finally addressed the defensive side of the ball.  With the 70^th overall pick, the Chiefs took Justin Houston, a very talented pass rusher from the OLB spot.  He slid primarily due to character issues, but the third round was clearly a steal for a player with this amount of pure talent.  I am very big on this draft for the Chiefs, who stayed disciplined and followed their draft board to get the players that will help them try and repeat as division champions.

B+

Oakland Raiders

I have to keep telling myself to just grade the draft here, due to how absurd the firing of Tom Cable was to me.  Admittedly, the Raiders are a franchise that demands success immediately… but they got it.  The drafting of JaMarcus Russell turned the Raiders into a punch line for a few seasons, but without him Cable took a fairly mediocre team and swept this division with it.  Playoffs or not, this was an impressive feat and makes you almost a shoe-in for a playoff run the next season.  Cable built the team to win in the AFC West and it did, so why get rid of him?  See, here I go again… back to the draft!  In round two Oakland got themselves a tough interior lineman to open up holes between the tackles for Darren McFadden when they took Stefan Wisniewski.  In the third round Al Davis did what he does, drafted a speedster with incredible physical attributes.  Defensive back Demarcus Van Dyke was among the fastest defensive backs at the combine and surely got Al Davis’ attention there.  This pick makes sense, because of the unpredictable nature of the Nnamdi Asomugha contract and the lockout combined.  I expect Asomugha to leave the team and there to be a big hole in the Raider secondary as a result.  Hopefully Van Dyke isn’t too much of a developmental prospect, because he could be needed right away.  The Raiders did not have a round 1 pick, but even so, they did very little to help themselves immediately… apart from drafting Wisniewski.

D+

San Diego Chargers

For a team that is a contender EVERY year, sometimes missing the playoffs is a good thing.  With the 18^th overall pick, the Chargers made one of the better first round selections when they took Corey Liuget from Illinois.  He is 6’2’’ 298 lbs and is going to be an effective run-stopper in this league.  The thing that really sets him apart as an interior d-lineman is his ability to contribute on pass rushing scenarios as well.  Liuget is a factor on all 4 downs and should anchor the front seven of San Diego for years to come.  Round two saw the Chargers pick twice and to my surprise both picks were also on the defensive side of the ball.  The Chargers added Marcus Gilchrist (DB) and Jonas Mouton (LB) to the roster with expectations that each will contribute on special teams.  I think Gilchrist has a chance to make the field on defense immediately however in nickel and dime packages and potentially even at safety, should there be any injuries through the course of the season.  Mouton has exceptional speed for a man his size and should immediately see the field on kickoff and kick return teams, but with the level the Charger defense played at last season, I just can’t see him playing a significant role on the defensive side of the ball for a little while. I was surprised to see no receivers taken by San Diego this year, but I guess the Special Teams was really what doomed them and Phillip Rivers will find SOMEONE to catch passes (Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson sound good enough?).  Not a great draft in my opinion, but they didn’t need to have one, they are still Super Bowl contenders next season.

My Grade: C+

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