Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds. As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all. That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts. As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once. This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium. Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky. Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust. Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.
Defenses
This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense. I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy). Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them. My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL. None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense. The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense. Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.
Kickers
Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct. Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points. However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP. Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for. Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!
Sleepers
Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.
Busts
Giants, Patriots and Bears.
I hope you are all as excited as I am that there is live football on TV again. After each week of the regular season comes to a close I will discuss the Fantasy Football relevant news from the week. Lets get started since week two is underway!
Ravens vs Panthers
This was not a confidence building game for the Ravens and their fans. Flacco performed admirably without Ray Rice in the backfield to provide the balance that will make them so dangerous. His absence also allowed the panthers secondary to focus on Boldin and keep him in check. What this game taught me was that the Ravens need to have all the peices of the puzzle in place in order to be an elite offense.
On the other side of the ball I hoped we would start to see the emergence of a number two receiver for Matt Moore, but both Dwayne Jarrett and Bradon LaFell showed me nothing. There was a nice 23 yard run by DeAngelo Williams, but with no Steve Smith in the game and as little time as we saw Matt Moore it is too early to judge this offense.
Raiders vs Cowboys
The one question i kept asking myself over and over after this game was “Is Heyward-Bey in some sort of witness protection program?” Seriously, considering what the Raiders gave up for this kid he has to start producing and fast to erase the memory of last year (9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD… embarrassing). I thought Michael Bush looked mediocre at best and I would hope to see that turn around in the preseason before I targeted him on draft day. I still don’t see how people can pick this team to make a surprise playoff run until one of their receivers steps up to give that offense a vertical threat.
I have enjoyed watching Romo get back to his old buddy Miles Austin early and often this preseason. There are serious question marks on the offensive line right now, but by using the playaction and letting Romo move out of the pocket some they should continue with the same level of production. I expect Jason Witten to return to an elite fantasy TE this year as he is an incredible red zone target.
Bills vs Redskins
The Bills saw injuries to both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson in Week 1 leaving all the first team reps to go to CJ Spiller. If he can capitalize on these reps and produce throughout the rest of the preseason he will keep climbing in my rankings. Last nights week 2 game was a great start at catching up to Jackson for Buffalo’s top ranked fantasy RB.
Gotta love McNabb, despite all the challenges of changing teams after so long in one system he came out and delivered in the limited time he was on the field. He will be the Redskins biggest offensive playmaker and if you are waiting as long as I am this year to draft a QB (and you miss out on Flacco) then McNabb may just be a bargain for the price. I am starting to tone down my love of Devin Thomas as a really late round pick as he just did not look natural catching the ball from McNabb or kick/punt returns. And lastly, Clinton Portis looked strong out of the backfield and is climbing in my rankings.
Eagles vs Jaguars
I was very interested in how Kolb would do in this game. The Jags do not have the most solid pass defense in the league and I really wanted to see him able to find the open guy and move them down the field. He sure did that. His first pass was to DeSean Jackson on a slant pattern he took for 20 yards. He later connected on two deep balls, one a piece to DJax and Jeremy Maclin. The play I liked seeing the most was his scramble to pick up a key conversion on 3rd and 5 to extend a drive and get points on the board.
The Jaguars looked terrible, MJD is definitely the number three back and Mike Sims-Walker has value in the middle rounds, but David Garrard is why none of these players will be able to fulfill their potential this year.
Browns vs Packers
It feels funny not typing something bad about the Browns these days… But Jerome Harrison found the endzone and Delhomme went 6/7 and 60 yards. They didn’t play long and couldn’t sustain that type of success against that defense. But for fantasy we don’t need them to to have value. I am more confident grabbing Harrison now than I was before I watched them march down the field against the Packers.
Ryan Grant gave me quite a scare with his fumble and mild concussion, however he is back at practice and won’t be missing any time in the regular season. No reason to lower him at all in the rankings, he is already a great bargain. Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings sure looked in sync with each other and raise expectations a bit. The battle for my number 10 WR this year is getting pretty fierce between Jennings and Marques Colston.
Chargers vs Bears
Phillip Rivers is the key to the success of this team. After watching this game Vincent Jackson must be disappointed because the Chargers were able to move the ball just fine through the air. Malcom Floyd is going to do just fine as a deep threat and Legedu Naanee is certainly eligible for sleeper status now. Rookie Ryan Mathews looked good in this game as well, performing as I would expect from a 2nd round fantasy RB.
Johnny Knox is clearly winning the number one job in this offense. His vertical speed is the perfect fit for this offense, but I am keeping Aromashodu above Knox in my rankings since he makes for a better red zone target.
Other players who had notable outings in week 1:
Eddie Royal
Calvin Johnson
Cadillac Williams
Mike Williams (TB)
Matt Schaub
Victor Cruz
The Chargers are among the elite teams in the league, and that is not about to change anytime soon. I really think that all this talk about Marcus McNeil is just posturing and that he will be signed by the start of the regular season, but with much more serious problems facing each other team in the division the Chargers should be back to them old selves well before the playoffs. Phillip Rivers has become one of the very best QBs in the league and if he can get himself a Super Bowl ring or two he will be well on his way to Canton. Chargers fans need only hope that their contract holdouts end up signed so that they can have another deep playoff run even with a rookie running back.
Top Fantasy Players
Phillip Rivers – Rivers is an elite QB and with targets like Jackson and Gates to throw to the sky is the limit for this offense. Also, don’t worry about the holdouts when valuing Rivers. He will find whatever target is available.
Ryan Matthews – Even though he is a rookie, we already know that he will be the feature back. With that many carries and not too much pressure given the quality of the passing attack he has an incredible chance for success.
Vincent Jackson – Unfortunately Jackson is able to serve his 3 game suspension while not under contract, so Jackson is probably not going to be signed by week one. Hopefully he will not miss any additional time other than his 3 game suspension but i think he will. Be wary of drafting him, but scoop him up if he falls into round 5 or 6 as he’ll be very productive when he gets back.
For the past two seasons the story of this division has been the same; The Broncos start really strong but collapse late and let the Chargers take the division. This year will be slightly different, the Chargers should be able to grab the lead early and hold it all year. All the other teams in this division are in a rebuilding mode and even though the Chargers have a few issues to work out, by the end of the season Vincent Jackson will be on the field and Ryan Matthews should have proven to be a very productive back.
Cowboys at Saints – This is a match-up between a team struggling for a playoff birth and another team striving for a perfect season. There is a lot of emotion involved in a game like this. If the Cowboys lose to the perfect Saints their playoff hopes are all but gone, and many people with-in the organization will need to update resumes. I actually think that this Cowboys offense is playing well and that despite everything that is stacked up against them, the Boys will find a way to win this one. They are a desperate team that has struggled as of late, however good games from Romo and the receiving core could give the Saints their only loss of the year if they can force a couple turnovers on defense. Upgrade Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush as this should be a game of big plays.
Dolphins at Titans – This is a battle for the inside track to the wild-card seed in the playoffs. The Titans need to win out, and the Dolphins still have the division within their grasp, though they need some help from the Patriots to over take them. Both teams are fighting for their lives and this always leads to some exciting football. Williams owners should curb your expectations for him… he is still as a RB2 or a great flex option but he wont be having a huge yardage game this week. Davone Bess is the best fantasy option at receiver from the Dolphins but you’re digging deep if your going there anyways because there are no big play threats in that receiving core which was built for Pennington and can’t take advantage of Henne’s deep ball ability. Kenny Britt should be fine as a flex or WR3 play in 12 team leagues (or more) assuming VY is active, and of course Chris Johnson is the best back in fantasy this season and there is no reason that should change this week.
49ers at Eagles – DeSean Jackson is set to go off this week against a 9ers secondary vulnerable to the big play. They beat up on the Cardinals because they got so much pressure, they wont have as much luck against this offensive line. Gore is a great play at RB as last week there was an excellent balance in the San Francisco offense which is the environment that Gore thrives in. Maclin is going to be inactive for this week so Jason Avant is a great play at WR this week, and Michael Crabtree is also a great play. As this offense matures so does Crabtree, excellent flex option this week in what could be a shoot out.
Bengals at Chargers – Two AFC studs meet this weekend in a potential playoff preview. The Chargers don’t lose in December, and the Bengals have only been beaten twice this year (I know they have three losses, I just don’t count that fluke play against Denver as being “beaten”) and are coming off a loss and want the momentum back for going into the playoffs. The Chargers are pretty decent at stopping the run but Benson gets so many carries that he overcomes bad match-ups and he remains a good start this week. Temper expectations on players in this one, as there are good defenses on the field and big plays wont come easy. Vincent Jackson should stay on track as an elite receiver.
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals – This match-up premiers two of the toughest run defenses in the league. The Vikings have a ridiculously large and powerful defensive line that is adept and both run stopping and pass rushing. The Bengals are more of a group of unknowns than Jared Allen and the Williams’ in the middle for the Vikes, but they rank 2nd in the league vs the run and 4th in the league in overall defense. We may not have expected them to be this good, but they are well coached and playing as a cohesive unit, something most defenses no longer due (Baltimore!). Two premiere RBs face two premiere run defenses so how do us analysts rank these guys? Well its sure tough but there is a reason you drafted Peterson first overall and that was to play him! Peterson is still a top10 back despite the match-up problems and has to be started. Benson is also a top 10 back this season but he falls a little farther past 15 but above 20. You are likely still playing him, however if you were lucky enough to draft Ray Rice and Ricky Williams you could very well have better options. As far as passing goes, Favre looks to be falling out of my top 10 at QB this week and not because of his age. I think the Vikings match-up really well here and I think that AP will get the best of this Bengal D that hasn’t faced too many elite backs so far this season. If the Vikings do not game plan to beat these guys in the running game and succeed I fear for how deep into the playoffs they can really go. The Vikes secondary can be thrown on, so I also think that if the Bengals are going to win it has to be in a shootout through the air. This wont be easy as Palmer hasn’t been playing like his old self this season (though quite good), he is merely managing the game they hope to win by running the ball over 30 times with Benson.
San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys seemed to have solved their offensive woes as they ad a good outing last week in a tough divisional loss to the Giants. The Cowboys have a tough schedule and the playoffs are a must if people like Wade Phillips and Tony Romo if they hope to be employed next year. Unluckily for them they are facing a red hot Chargers team that needs to maintain their winning ways now that Denver is out of its losing streak. I do not think that either defense is so good that there are any offensive players devalued by their match-up. On the contrary this should be a decently high scoring affair and the likes of Rivers, Austin, and Jackson see a slight increase in their stock this week.
Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts - This is the best chance there is left in the regular season for the Colts to add a notch to the loss column; Orton has come back from his injury pretty well, Marshall is making plays for him in the passing game, and Moreno and Buckhalter are both good backs that are making the most of their chances. The Broncos are a complete football team that is well coached, but the Colts have Manning and that has been the only coach to make much of a difference. The players I like in the game are the usual players for each team, Manning, Wayne, Moreno and Marshall.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – I love when two teams from this division play, they are always fun to watch so if you get the chance I recommend it. Brian Westbrook is potentially going to be playing in this game, and this devalues LeSean McCoy, and couple that with his limited use last week, and his future gets murky. He is still a great flex play this week or a RB2 if you are hurting from injuries at the moment. DeSean Jackson looks to be returning as well this week, and should do just fine in the same role you were using him before. Manningham has been a huge flop as of late so you aren’t using him, but Smith has been seeing a bump in productivity as he has seen at least 7 points in each of the last four weeks. Smith is coming fresh off a 110 yard performance last week and should be a solid WR2 spot this week as we should see a fair share of scoring.
