Chicago Bears

The Bears were the surprise NFC North Champions last season, even with the Super Bowl Champions in their division.  They played exceptionally on defense and even found a balance between the rushing and passing attacks on offense during last regular season.  Unfortunately for Bears fans, they were not able to overcome their mediocre at best offensive line in the playoffs, but this made it clear where their first pick should go.  With the 29^th overall pick, the Bears took Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin to anchor their line for years to come. Carimi is a prototypical right tackle, but might spend a little time playing at guard on this line next season unless the Bears go after any interior lineman in free agency. I also think that he would do well on the left side after he develops as an NFL athlete, but ideally there will be another tackle added to the roster next year that can play the left side.  In round two with the 53^rd overall pick, Chicago selected Stephen Paea who set the Scouting Combine record on the bench press. He is a bit of a developmental prospect with raw athleticism, but he will excel as a one gap run stopper in the middle of the defensive line in the future. His incredible strength will translate to this role in the Bears’ defense that loves to blitz up the middle.  Paea will eat up at least two blockers and should allow pressure by the linebackers through the middle. In round three, the Bears took DB Chris Conte from California.  Conte is an incredibly versatile defensive back that filled in at just about every spot during his time in college before transitioning to safety in his final season.  He will make an immediate impact on special teams and with the veterans on defense to help him develop, he will find a spot somewhere in the starting lineup before too long. I would have liked to see the Bears take an interior offensive lineman that would allow Carimi to play at right tackle, but Paea will be an impact player and clearly the Bears were confident in his abilities. Also, they opted not to take a playmaker at WR. I am not jumping for joy at this draft, but I think they should be running the ball more anyways and there is plenty of free agent talent available at receiver, so all hope is not lost.

My Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Many people are very big on this year’s draft for the Lions, but I am not one of them.  They added some great players to their team, but ignored their biggest need in the secondary. Prince Amukamara fell past Houston and seemed to be a lock for Detroit who continues to lose games because they cannot contain the big play.  I will admit that I had Fairley higher on my draft board than Prince, but it was because of how well Fairley fits into Tennessee’s defensive scheme and how big of a reach it was for them to take Locker 8th overall. Fairley along with Suh at DT will give the Lions a VERY stout run defense and will obviously make the pass rush more effective, but this is not enough for a secondary that was average at best last season statistically. There were two picks in the second round for Detroit and both were spent on offensive skill positions.  First the Lions selected Titus Young from Boise State.  Young is just 5’1’’ 174 lbs, but he has the speed to be a very impactful deep threat as well as return man.  He is so fast he makes it very difficult for teams to not provide safety help to the corner that is covering him and with Calvin Johnson on the other side of the field, one of these guys will be in man-coverage more often that opposing defenses would like. The second pick in round two for the Lions was spent on Mikel Leshoure who is much better between the tackles than Jahvid Best, who is almost certain to serve as a 3^rd down / change of pace back from here on out.  Passing on Amukamara was a mistake, but they made considerable improvements to their team and stayed true to their draft board.  They won’t get an A from me, but I don’t hate their choices.

My Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Super Bowl Champion Packers had needs on both sides of the line as well as WR and DB.  They were able to address these concerns for the most part in this draft, by selecting someone at each of these positions in the first four rounds with defensive lineman being the only exception.  In the first round, they took Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State. This isn’t a pick that is going to excite too many fans, but he has the versatility to play anywhere on the line, but would ideally be a great RT of the future for the Packers opposite Chad Clifton. In round two the Packers took Randall Cobb from Kentucky, who is a speedy playmaker that could fill in for James Jones, who is looking to enter free agency after his fourth season.  In round three the Packers made what was, to me, a puzzling selection with RB Alex Green from Hawaii.  Green is a big, punishing runner with great hands out of the backfield. To me, the Packers are a passing team with Ryan Grant at RB and James Starks as a change of pace back.  If I was coaching the Packers, Green would just be a goal line back at best… but don’t be surprised if he has a much larger role than this starting in his rookie season. I am not sure how much better they got with this draft, but they filled gaps that will be opened by departing free agents and added depth along both offensive and defensive line.  And after all, they were Super Bowl Champions last year, so they will certainly still be able compete for a chance to repeat next season.

My Grade: B

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings only had two selections in the first three rounds this season and with their first round pick, they made the second most questionable selection in this year’s draft by taking Christian Ponder 12^th overall.  Ponder has a lot of the intangibles that you want to see in a franchise QB and came from a pro-style offense.  It will take the Vikes a little time to adjust their personnel and playbook to suit the quick timing attack that suits Ponder’s strengths, but with great risk comes great reward… so only time will tell how good this pick was. He might be in over his head if he has to start week 1, especially considering the lockout, but there is certainly a nice running back at his disposal to help him move the ball down the field.  In round two the Vikes took the draft’s top Tight End, Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.  Rudolph is likely to assume a primarily blocking role and for good reason, he might as well be a tackle… judging by the size of him.  I would have thought the Vikes would look to add a possession receiver or grab an impact player on defense with this pick, but having a TE tandem like Rudolph and Shiancoe can provide one hell of a crutch for a young QB.  Minnesota’s saving grace was that they were able to address areas where they lacked depth with their 6 picks in rounds 6 and 7.  With reaching for Ponder AND ignoring positions of need to take Kyle Rudolph, I can’t grade Minnesota well, but if Ponder becomes a successful NFL QB, I’ll be happy to have been wrong!

My Grade: C

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Well, week 3 of the preseason is where we get the best look at the fantasy players from each team (if healthy) before the season.  And while many people don’t like to use the preseason to impact their rankings, I feel this week is one of the best indicators you can find before your draft.

Packers vs. Colts

Well this was a hell of a game to watch.  You usually don’t get to see quite so many sparks fly in the preseason, but with these two high powered offenses playing for around 3 quarters… It was bound to be a fun one to see.  Since all the insanity with Favre and now Sidney Rice being out half the year I have to think the Packers are now the favorite to win their division.  Rodgers looks like an MVP candidate so far, and Jennings has been much more active in the passing game than last year. He (Jennings) could rack up 1400 yards and 10 TDs no problem this year.

As for the Colts, no need to be concerned.  They had some rough spots caused by, what seemed to me, deliberately pushing the limits of the new ball spotting system.  I hope that the Reggie Wayne doubters have been paying attention, because I think he has had a VERY strong preseason and he will remain my number 3 WR.  Garcon has done a good job separating himself from Collie and Gonzalez and in doing so he earned a bump in my rankings.  Also I am starting to have some concerns about Addai.  He is in a contract year, and the Colts drafted Donald Brown for a reason.  I think if Addai misses just one game he will lose his job permanently to Brown.  The Colts will not want to pay to re-sign a back in his decline.

Cowboys vs. Texans

It is no surprise that the offensive line is the biggest area of concern for the Cowboys offense this year, but even so, Romo spent too much time on his back this week.  If they play this poorly during the season Romo will not be able to stay healthy.  Austin and Witten will maintain their production through these issues, but I am concerned for Felix Jones who seems to get injured a lot as is.

Arian Foster became the first Houston Texan to break 100 yards rushing in a preseason game this week and moved up quite a bit in my ranks as it is becoming clear he will see the vast majority of the carries.  Seeing Slaton back to return kicks shows that they don’t intend to use him like they used to by any means.  Jacoby Jones also had a strong showing in this game, helping his cause for becoming the #2 guy over Kevin Walter.

Bears vs. Cardinals

So far this preseason we really hadn’t seen a glimpse of last year’s Jay Cutler, until this week that is.  The bottom line is with this guy, is he is a gunslinger that makes some bad choices.  You need to expect around 20 interceptions from Cutler this year but you can also expect 30 TDs and around 4,000 yards.  Johnny Knox and Chester Taylor both looked very strong in this game as well but I don’t quite give anyone a bump in the rankings.

Oh Arizona… I thought you were finally going to be a good team, but now there are rumors flying around about them trading away Matt Leinart or cutting him altogether.  It is definitely time to downgrade all the Cardinals in our rankings. Beanie Wells can’t be productive in an inconsistent offense that can’t convert on third downs and between the injury and the QB situation I am afraid that Fitzgerald will have a very bad season (at least by his standards).  Tim Hightower is falling too far in the drafts that I have seen, he will still be their third down guy and if he is hot they will certainly not be afraid to let him get some carries.

Chiefs vs Eagles

First thing first, Jamaal Charles is fine, no worries for fantasy owners here.  He is not supposed to miss any time in the regular season.  After he left the game Thomas Jones did a great job filling in for him, but I still think he will be inconsistent behind a worse offensive line and might actually be more productive as the number 2 with fewer carries and hits taken.  It was good to see Dwayne Bowe get involved a bit more too, he remains a sleeper of mine for the middle rounds.

I remain convinced that the success of the Eagles offense hinges on DeSean Jackson.  So, it was not much of a surprise to me that they did not do well without him after he left very early.  As with Charles, no concern here for fantasy owners… he will be back by week 1.  LeSean McCoy ran well, but did not see a lot of carries.  No adjustments to my rankings for any of these guys.

Other Notable Performances

LaDainian Tomlinson – Gotta start calling him a sleeper.  Watching Hard Knocks may be tainting my reaction here, but I just keep hearing Rex Ryan say “I love being right”.

Pierre Thomas

Reggie Bush

Joe Flacco

Frank Gore

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The Bears had a pretty bad off season in my opinion, considering they addressed none of their offensive line issues.  It is hard to blame them for this too much as they were without any draft selections in the first two rounds as well as had some pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball.  They did make some big name moves getting Chester Taylor and Julius Peppers, but without an offensive line none of it matters.  They should still see some decent production from their playmakers and I expect a rebound year for just about all of the fantasy relevant Bears.  The popular choice for which receiver will have a breakout year is Aromashodu who has tremendous upside given the chemistry him and Cutler had at the end of last season.  While I do rank him slightly higher than Johnny Knox it is mostly due to Devin’s tremendous potential.  I think Knox is the safer pick and should remain the Bears best and most consistent deep threat.

Top Fantasy Players

Matt Forte – Last year’s biggest bust is bound to fall pretty far in drafts this coming year.  I think he will do ok and could even finish inside the top 20 by the end of the season in the Bears new Mike Martz offense, but without the offensive line issues resolved it won’t be easy.

Jay Cutler – If he is able to curtail the number of interceptions this season his fantasy points will be in the top 10.  It would take effort to throw as many interceptions as he did last year, so should definitely improve on his numbers.  Also, a Mike Martz offense will utilize the strengths of Cutler’s game better so expect to see more touchdowns and yardage too.

Devin Aromashodu – There are no polished pass catchers on this offense and this young guy is the closest thing they’ve got.  He was drafted as a raw physical talent with impressive physical attributes, so the only question was were they able to tame this beast and turn him into the receiver the offense desperately needs.  Personally I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Johnny Knox had the most fantasy points out of Chicago receivers.

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Both last season and this upcoming one should end with similar standings.  The Vikings will be bringing Favre back and the Packers are the only team with a chance at upsetting them for the division title.  I expect the competition to be tight between the two powerhouses in this division, but I most look forward to how the Lions do this year!  I think they have made some huge steps in improving their franchise and fantasy owners should get used to the name Matthew Stafford right now.

Chicago Bears

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings

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With the first weekend of free agency drawing to a close its time to look at how the moves that have been made so far impact next years Fantasy Football season.  Many big-names have changed teams during this week, and  will shake up next seasons pre-draft rankings quite a bit.  Here are the roster moves made so far during this free agency period that have an impact on fantasy football:

Anquan Boldin traded to Ravens – The biggest move of the free agency period was not a signing, but a trade.  With the addition of Anquan Boldin to the Ravens offense three different players all receive a bump in my rankings; Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin (shocker!), and Ray Rice.  The biggest weakness of the Ravens last year was balance in the passing game.  They have been lacking a serious play-maker at the wide receiver position, and Flacco’s production was hurt the worst by it.  Mason is getting old and may not be back in a Ravens uniform next year, but with the addition of Stallworth and now Boldin the Ravens will finally have two polished receivers that can stretch the field AND get open over the middle.  The impact on Ray Rice will also be significant, with Boldin on the roster the Ravens will have a balanced offensive attack instead of the Ray Rice show that was last season.  Next year he wont be a surprise, people know what he can do now and without a balanced attack he would be vulnerable to being schemed against.  With game-breaking talent at wide-out defenses will need to respect the deep ball and Rice will remain a top tier back.

Antonio Cromartie traded to the Jets – Another trade tops my list of moves made during free agency week, and yes I know it was the day before but its so significant I’m sneaking it in!  This move will solidify the Jets as my #1 Defense for next season barring some unforeseen incident.  While Cromartie  is certainly no Revis, he is a very gifted player filling the area of biggest need for the Jets already number one ranked defense.  Oh, and the Jets were already first in the league in passing defense last year… 30 yards fewer per game than the number two Bills.

Bears sign Chester Taylor – I am really excited to see what Taylor can do outside the shadow of Adrian Peterson… but I do not think we will know his full potential until at least next year.  The Bears have no picks in the first two rounds, and have an offensive line that could use quite a bit of work.  Good news for the Bears however, this is a VERY deep draft class at offensive line and there is a real chance they could find a diamond in the rough.  Taylor is a very complete back and he will likely take over the primary role leaving Forte to handle third downs.

Lions sign Nate Burleson – Calvin Johnson finally has someone that could pull some double teams away from him… ok not quite. However,  Burleson has 7 years of experience and a fair few left in him.  His veteran leadership and experience at being on mediocre teams could go a long way to helping the Lions on the road to average.  And lets face it, with a tough and talented kid like Stafford at the helm they could get there pretty quick.  Burleson will likely see similar production as he had in his disappointing last season, but he could really help Megatron get open a couple more times per game… and that is certainly a good thing.

Bears sign Julius Peppers – The Bears make my list twice since they needed to use the limited free agent pool as their draft, and lets face it… you cant draft the best pass rushing defensive end and that is what the Bears got in Peppers.  The biggest weakness for the Bears defense last year was… well… their offense.  With Cutler throwing such a large number of interceptions as well as the Bears’ inability to extend drives and provide some rest for their defenders, just about every game the defense was worn out by the fourth quarter and unable to stop much of anything.  Hopefully Taylor and Manumaleuna help to extend drives and give those poor guys a break.  If the Bears find a good lineman or two, their defense could be a top5 fantasy defense again soon.

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