Love
Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Charles is a dynamic game-changing back that has never been used to his maximum potential in Kansas City. While it still remains true that the Chiefs did not go out and sign Thomas Jones to ride the bench, Todd Haley will soon be shamed into doing the right thing and stopping this 50/50 time share shenanigans. If that happens this week, Charles just may return the favor for what Harrison did to the Chiefs last year.
Michael Vick, QB, PHI - Typically a QB stepping into a starting job mid-season wouldn’t show up on a list like this… but this one has pro-bowl credentials and a very squishy match up. While the Bears’ receivers were not able to make big plays vs the Lion’s secondary that was primarily the fault of two Cutler turnovers and Matt Forte having probably the best game of his season.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – Even though he is in a time share, Stewart did not look very productive last week and the Panthers tend to ride the hot-handed back hardest. Playing against among the worst teams in the league should allow Williams the opportunity to have a great week and we all know he has the ability.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – The Texans exposed the weakness of the Colts defense, the running game. Bradshaw is a VERY similar back to Arian Foster and the Giants have begun to embrace him as their lead guy. Bradshaw will have a big game this week and while he wont be getting any goal line carries I still think he should be able to find the end zone at least once.
Brett Favre, QB, MIN - It will take him some time to find a receiver that he is comfortable with other than Harvin and last week he was unable to get the ball rolling. I will never ask Favre to play like he did last season but he will have a good game so if you have one of the questionable QBs this week don’t hesitate to start Brett.
Brandon Jackson, RB, GB – He had a lot of chances last week to get him used to his new role as feature back in this high-powered Packers offense. He has among the best match-ups possible against a weak Bills run D. If you are strong at the RB position I would not blame you for not wanting to put an unknown in over a proven RB2, but you should definitely use him for your flex spot if you have one.
Jason Campbell, QB, OAK – Campbell has been very consistent for faithful fantasy owners that have been willing to ignore bad match-ups and mediocre offensive talent to give this guy a start. Now he gets the chance to have a good match-up so if you are in a 2 Quarterback league then this is an easy choice.
Roddy White, WR, ATL - This guy is the entire Falcons passing game this season. White got targeted TWENTY THREE TIMES last week against the Steelers and was able to total 111 receiving yards in a very defensive game in which his team did not score a TD. Now they play a poor Cardinals team that lost a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball.
DeSean Jackson, WR, PHI – He may only get two catches this week, but if that is the case I’d say he has over a hundred yards and a score. Vick is not a QB that DJax can excel with, but regardless of his QB i’d rank him top 10 against the Lions.
Wes Welker, WR, NE – Welker’s confidence in his knee was my issue last week and that cannot be an area of concern any more. This week I worry about the match up, but with Revis nose-to-nose with Randy Moss all day and how effective the Ravens were moving the ball while attacking the other CBs I think Welker could end up in the top 5 points-wise this week.
Jason Witten, TE, DAL – When the line plays poorly the QB has to use his check downs and quick routes to pick up first downs. Enter the tight end. The Cowboys have one of the best in the league and if they want to win they need to get him more involved. They play the Bears this week and the passing attack will be crucial to their success.
Chris Cooley, TE, WAS – It sure was nice to see McNabb rely on Cooley for the exact sort of plays I love Witten for this week. Against a high-powered Texans offense the Skins will need to use an areal attack to keep up and Cooley could end up the leading receiver if the Texans decide to double cover Santana Moss.
Hate
Tom Brady, QB, NE – Last season the Bills were able to seriously impact the fantasy point totals of Brady twice, the Jets defense is much better than Buffalo’s so I think it is unreasonable to expect a 300 yard performance from Brady. Also, it would shock no one if he was only able to get one TD. I do expect him to be able to use Welker effectively as their only real weapon so as if you don’t have another top 10 QB this week then your gonna have to start him anyways.
Frank Gore, RB, SF - What a disappointment last week! I am still speechless that the 9ers blew it last week against a mediocre Seahawks team. With the Saints this week the 9ers will need to attempt to stretch the field. If Gore has a slow start he is not going to do very well at all. He is outside my top10 this week but not by much, so your still likely going to have to start him.
Justin Forsett, RB, SEA – Silly me, I thought when the Seahawks cut Julius Jones he would NOT LEAD THE TEAM IN CARRIES ANYMORE. Seriously Pete Carrol he had 8 carries for 18 yards… what is it about this guy that mesmerizes coaches so much? It is in my mind the main thing that cost Jim Mora Jr. his job.
Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – If you owned Harrison at all last year you very possibly benched him for his crazy ridiculous game vs the Chiefs due to the week to week guessing game at who in Cleveland would get the most carries. Peyton Hillis tied Harrison for 9 carries and one-upped him with a TD. Don’t start either one till something gets sorted out.
Randy Moss, WR, NE – Have you met Darrelle Revis? He is about to hurt your argument for a new contract mid-season.
Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC - Try and not use this guy this week. He got blanked by the Broncos secondary which is good… but not great. The quiet reports from local sources in Jacksonville during training camp that Mike Thomas was going to win the starting job were right and he just might pass MSW for the top spot on the depth chart.
Tight end is a very deep position this year. There is a lot of talent both inside and out of the top 10. The tight-end position is currently evolving in the NFL. The top two guys on my rankings (which can be found here) are used much more like wide receivers in their offense and are worth reaching for in rounds four and five of your draft. More and more teams are using their tight ends to create match up nightmares for opposing defenses. Later in the rankings you will be able to pick up some very good, but more traditional TE talent. Many young QBs and bad teams rely on their TE to pick up key first downs and be a big target in the red zone. When deciding on which TE to start this year rely on playing the most talented guy and do not take match up into heavy consideration.
The Top Two
Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are in a class of their own. No matter who you put at number one, you acknowledge that there is a large gap between these two guys and the rest of the pack. When you draft Gates or Clark you are essentially drafting a very consistent WR. With Vincent Jackson missing extensive time and probably never playing in a Chargers uniform again, the only reliable and trusted target Philip Rivers has left at his disposal is Gates. Both Clark and Gates are likely to get close to 100 catches and 10 TD’s.
The Next Three
Lacking a clever name to call my tier two group of right ends is not the only problem that I have with this group of guys. Jermichael Finley is an unproven guy that many people, including me, think will have a year similar to Clark and Gates. In the preseason the Packers have been an explosive offense, and stout defense. The Packers use Finley often as he truly is a matchup nightmare, he is too big for 95% of defensive backs to cover and too fast for almost any linebackers to cover. Vernon Davis had a huge year last year, but primarily because of touchdowns and you just can’t count on him getting 10 TDs again. Witten had a off year last season and should rebound fine, but until I see that the Cowboys can reliably protect Romo in the pocket he is stuck at number 5 on my rankings.
The Last of The Starters
Rounding out my top 10 is the traditional tight ends. These guys are on bad teams, have young QB’s or have mediocre talent and a good team/QB. Brent Celek falls under the new QB category. There will be times this year that Kevin Kolb struggles, or is in need of a check down and he will be turning to Celek more often than not. It is also worth noting that Celek and Kolb are friends off the field and roommates when on the road so they should be a solid level of trust and comfort with each other. Zach Miller is hands down the most consistent receiving threat that the Raiders have and after a considerable upgrade at QB I expect Miller to have a career year. Owen Daniels was in the 2nd tier last year and started very strong, however due to an injury he missed most of the season and it will take a little time for him to be back to his old self. The inevitable slow start is why he is ranked at 9th, but he could be a top 5 guy come the end of the year.
The Best of The Rest
Rounding out the starters in deep formats and the backups is a hodgepodge of inconsistent big guys that are often on run-first teams. Visanthe Shiancoe is a serious threat in the red zone that was often used by Brett Favre last year. Brett cannot replicate the production of last season, but he will still get his share of passing TDs and so will Shiancoe. Chris Cooley is another guy that was hurt last year and he is on a team with a poor receiving corp, offensive line and a quality QB that can get him the ball. Cooley represents the best value TE this year and getting either him or Zach Miller is the reason why I let all the top guys go off the board and stack up on WR and RB talent.
Sleepers
Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson and Anthony Fasano
Busts
Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen and Todd Heap
Recap
If either Gates or Clark falls to you in the 5th round and you don’t like any options left at WR RB or QB then do it! You will be getting to start an extra WR every week. If not, then wait for Zach Miller or Chris Cooley late in the draft. The fact that guys like John Carlson, Anthony Fasano, Heath Miller and Todd Heap should go un-drafted is pretty ridiculous in my opinion. Oh, and don’t take a backup… the guys I just mentioned can be gotten off waivers to cover your main guy’s bye week.
Just in case you didn’t hear enough about the McNabb trade in yesterday’s post now it is time to talk about the team that picked up this potential Hall of Fame QB. Instantly upon making this trade the Skins got a big time playmaker at the most important position on the field. All receiving targets on the offense got a significant boost, including one of my favorite sleeper receivers of this season… Devin Thomas. Target Thomas in the very late rounds where there is no substantial risk. Sidney Rice owners from last year can attest to the fact that sometimes all a young guy needs to have a breakout year is a veteran QB and a little chemistry between the two of them. Assuming they can get better play from their offensive line this year the Skins shouldn’t be basement dwellers again this year.
Top Fantasy Players
Donovan McNabb – He instantly became the team’s best offensive weapon. However, his new team has significantly worse offensive weapons to assist McNabb and you should treat him as a really good option for your backup QB. He will end up providing more value to players Santana Moss and Devin Thomas than he will have himself.
Chris Cooley – He is getting older and coming off of an injury. I do not know if he can match his previous production, but he certainly has the best QB he has ever had in Washington. Cooley will be one of the last tight ends to get selected in your draft making him potentially a great value. I do expect to see a lot of double TE formations from the Skins after the job that Fred Davis did in Cooley’s absence.
Santana Moss – He is getting older and will not have numbers like he had a few years ago, however he is a good possession receiver and will be relevant to fantasy football once again. I consider him as a WR3 or flex option.
