Starting Fantasy Lineup
Dec
20
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 16

POSTED BY Big Jim | No Comments »

Love

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Moreno is averaging 20 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks against pretty good match-ups.  Speaking of good match-ups… The Broncos play against the Browns and the Chiefs to close out the season.  Cleveland this week and considering Joe Haden can actually cause some problems for opponents, I look for Denver to give the Browns a heavy helping of the run game.  He has a pretty good chance for 100 yards and a score here but he is only listed as an RB2 in my rankings because we haven’t seen enough tape for me to be too confident yet.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots aren’t playing for a whole lot this week but come on… Brady vs the Jags? That’s a pretty great match-up for your Super Bowl week!  Welker is going to be free to roam around the line of scrimmage all game and Brady is going to use him to pick the defense apart.  I like Lloyd a lot too as a really good flex option but Welker is a must-start in almost any imaginable circumstance.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – I hate to say it but for fantasy purposes, Romo has actually been decent.  If you were able to get two serviceable Quarterbacks and did a good job of deciding which to play, you could easily be in the Super Bowl right now.  If Romo is one of those guys, he is your choice this weekend against a soft Saints defense.  Hopefully Dez Bryant isn’t affected as severely by his finger injury but he was still a quality play for fantasy owners even with visible signs of pain.  The Cowboys are also benefiting from the work of DeMarco Murray once again and Romo is most effective in the play-action passing situations.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Morris is a beast.  Last week, with Kirk Cousins at QB and the defense knowing that he was going to be a huge factor, he still got it done with 20 fantasy points.  RG3 is going to play this week and Philly, who is already weak to the run, will not even be able to bring an 8th man into the box very often.  Bottom line is that, in the Playoffs, you NEED consistency at every position and Morris is as close to a sure-thing as it gets for 100 yards rushing for players not named Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson.

Randall Cobb, WR, GB – James Jones may lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns but he isn’t even close to the lead in targets or receptions on his own team.  Scores are fluky and not easy to do with consistency.  Cobb is a FAR safer option this week and Jones is more of a flex-option.

Hate

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – There can’t be many of you left in the Super Bowl if you own this guy but maybe you capitalized on Alfred Morris and didn’t use CJ much until late in the season.  Either way, if you’ve got him, you may have to start him but try not to.  His value is almost entirely in the one big play he has been getting more often than not.  If he doesn’t get that play, he won’t have more than 5 points and you can’t take that chance.  Not with as bad as his o-line is, especially.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – It’s a shame that the team is in disarray right now because this should be a really nice match-up.  Now it’s a complete crap-shoot because given how poor the entire team played last week, Coughlin could potentially do anything with his running backs this week.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB – Steer clear of Freeman this week against the Rams.  They are no slouch on defense and after the entire team imploded last week, if your still alive, you wan’t to stay away from them.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG – I have no choice but to play him in a Super Bowl match-up this week and I am really nervous about it.  Like I just said, this team is a mess and while they have a really good chance of rebounding VERY strong and blowing up the scoreboard, it’s a gamble and as I’ve said a thousand times so far this post-season… this is not the time for a gamble.

Anotonio Brown, WR, PIT – I loved seeing him rebound last week too but you CAN NOT forget how bad he was for the entire rest of the season, before his injury.  WAY too risky.

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Nov
29
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 13

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Love

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Newton showed us all, last week, that he can still put up some BIG numbers against bad teams.  The team lost Jonathan Stewart and while fantasy owners wouldn’t believe it, it will have a negative impact on the team.  DeAngelo Williams has been the worse of the two and with him getting the lion’s share of the work, I believe the running game will suffer significantly because of it.  Expect them to ask Cam to pick up the slack around the goal line and expect him to have a nice day throwing as well.  He falls just outside my top 10 but only because Kaepernick has a little more upside to me.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – The Chiefs are pretty bad and unfortunately that can mean abandoning the run and looking to the air but Carolina is ranked 25th at defending the run and Charles is better than your average running back.  I think Crennel would like to keep his job and if that means winning more games, he just might give Charles another 30 carry game.  Don’t rely on that but if Charles starts strong, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see it.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – The way to beat the Lions is by passing.  They will be throwing a ton themselves (the leagues top passing offense), so you will have to keep up and their secondary is pretty porous.  Andrew Luck has been solid and Wayne has been great as he is on pace to beat his personal record for single season receiving yards.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – I don’t think he can hold up all the way through a playoff run, physically, and history backs me up on that.  However, the Giants need to MAKE the playoffs first and a key to that will be keeping Robert Griffen III off the field by running the ball with Bradshaw.  I don’t expect Coughlin to suddenly throw David Wilson out there more than he has to.  The Redskins defense is really bad too so i’m looking for a great performance from Bradshaw as well as the passing game.

Justin Blackmon, WR, JAC - I ranked Cecil Shorts considerably higher but Blackmon was the more surprising to me, considering that he was the second guy to make it into the top 25.  Buffalo’s defense has been pretty stout in recent weeks but that doesn’t mean that there isnt fantasy production to go around.  The weak spot, still, is the secondary and if Henne and the Jags wanna win some games, they will pass a TON this week.  Even if MJD makes it out there, you have to think it’s a limited touches scenario and the passing game will remain the feature of the offense.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD – He’s started three games and even with one of them being as a tight-end, he has been the most effective receiver in every single one.  This is a really good flex-option and he is fast approaching WR 2 territory with another strong game this week.

Hate

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I didn’t know I hated Richardson till I finished my rankings and looked at what the other websites had up… TOP THREE?! Not for me.  He’s been great and I think he is one of the best RB2′s you can ask for but he’s a Cleveland Brown and that limits your upside significantly.  I would not start him over any of the elite guys just because of his nice match-up.  So, if you own Peterson, Doug Martin and CJ Spiller, which is incredibly possible, you just keep Richardson on your bench and don’t let anyone make you feel bad about it.

Danny Amendola, WR, STL – I wouldn’t blame PPR owners for playing him but even there he is a flex play at best against the incredibly stout 49er defense.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – People, hear me now and remember how right I was later… THIS IS NOT A TOP 10 RUNNING BACK.  He’s put up far too many awful performances, he plays behind an awful offensive line  and plays against the Texans this week.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE – I really thought he was going to be a flex play again for one more week but I just couldn’t do it. Not with your playoff chances on the line. Sit him down and live to fight another week.

Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ – I really like Keller but he hasn’t been consistent and all I can think about is the fact that the Cardinals picked off Matt Ryan 5 times a couple weeks ago and now they play Sanchez.

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Nov
08
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 10

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Love

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – There are a lot of people out there that are under the assumption that the Patriots are a pass-first offense. New England has attempted 276 rushing plays and 323 passing plays.  A surprisingly even split when the perception is that they almost never run.  Ridley is the lead back on the NFL’s 4th best rushing offense and he is playing against the NFL’s 31st ranked rushing defense.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – Stafford didn’t knock his fantasy owners’ socks off last week with points.  He did however play pretty well and the team was running the ball with an effectiveness that we have really never seen before.  This ability to run the ball opened up Calvin Johnson in the passing game.  Stafford should bounce back well in the second half of the season.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – Johnson has been a fairly large disappointment in the past few weeks.  The Bills passing offense has fallen apart and they are leaning heavily on their running game.  But, I’ve got news for fantasy owners… New England’s secondary is awful.  Aqib Talib is not eligible to play for the Patriots yet as he finished out his suspension and it is reasonable to look for 100 yards and a score from Johnson this week.

Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC – It may be hard to get excited about a back up running back on the worst team in the NFL.  Sorry Jaguars fans, I don’t mean to offend, but they really are that bad. I am excited because this is a winnable game for Jacksonville.  They are playing at home against the 5-3 Indianapolis Colts, who have a terrible run defense.  They have been gashed by a variety of backs this season and Jennings will have more room to run in this game than any Jaguar back has all season.  Get this guy in your lineup unless your team is stacked.

Brandon Meyers, TE, OAK – The only thing that I am nervous about with Meyers is that he is on a west coast team that is traveling to the east, to play at 1pm.  Carson Palmer is playing pretty well as of late and Oakland is starting to improve.  Darren McFadden is banged up and even if he gets out there, which I doubt, he will have a limited role.  This means that Oakland will be opening up the passing game even more this week and Meyers has been a VERY sure-handed and reliable threat for Palmer all season.  He’s close to being a top 10 guy until further notice.

Brian Hartline, WR, MIA – If after last week, you still require more proof to believe me when I say that Tennessee is a bad team, your insane.  The offense was turning the ball over like crazy and the secondary couldn’t contain Brandon Marshall, who was the primary AND secondary receiver on every pass that Jay Cutler threw.  Hartline is no Brandon Marshall but he is a reliable weapon for Tannehill and could be in-line for his second best game of the season.

Hate

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – The Jets offense has struggled, to say the least, at times this season and while Greene has been able to put up some very good statistical performances, he has yet to WOW me when I watch the game film.  Seattle has one of this season’s best defenses and when they are at home, they can shut down ANYONE. This is not a good week to risk your fate on Greene or any New York Jet.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – A LOT of fantasy analysts have listed Mike Williams as a top 20 guy this week and honestly, I think that this is absurd. He has not had a 100-yard game in 3 weeks and while he has 3 TD’s in 4 games, I am not sure that there is any real certainty that he will be continuing this trend.  Don’t get me wrong, his value is on the rise and he is a viable flex option but a WR #2? Get real… not yet.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – IF you still love this guy, you haven’t seen his games.  You should have been in the market for a new QB already and Josh Freeman, Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck all found their way above Freeman in my rankings. Sit Romo down or you are asking to lose.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I was really upset when Johnson pulled the fluke 80 yard TD run out of thin air as the Titans were DOMINATED by the Bears last week.  If you take away that ONE play, Johnson would have gotten you just two fantasy points.  He is not a top 20 guy and just a flex-option because it is possible that he pulls another big play out of nowhere.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Dallas’s defense has been incredibly improved from last year.  That goes double for the secondary, which was simply awful last season.  Between that and how poor Vick has been playing lately, there is not much chance of quality production from Maclin.  DeSean Jackson gets ranked higher this week because he is far more likely to take a short pass the distance but even he is just a flex-play in a week where big-plays are not very likely.  If your desperate, you can use Maclin because NFC East games tend to be tough to analyze… anything can happen.

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Nov
01
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 9

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Love

Vincent Jackson, WR, TB – Making a claim about VJax’s production is always playing with fire.  He takes plays off and looks slow and tired some games but coming off of a long rest following their Thursday night game, Jackson seems poised for a big game.  Josh Freeman has been playing great for 3 weeks in a row now and Jackson had all that time for his legs to get fresh.  Oakland is a soft match up for receivers too. REALLY like him this week, only bench him if you have three top 10 guys who are very consistent.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – Yes, he’s been bad lately. Wildly inconsistent and not even close to what you were hoping for when you drafted him.  He still has a lot of big-play ability and his upside is still pretty high up there. He plays against a Redskins secondary that can’t stop anyone and can’t rush the quarterback.  This has the potential to be his biggest game of the season, even though his 37 points against Atlanta will be tough to top.  You would be foolish to bench him now.

Trent Richardson, RB, CLE – I was in the “don’t draft this guy” camp during the preseason. Mostly because people were so crazy in love with him that they were taking him in the first two rounds… Which I still think was insane and stupid.  But i’m becoming less and less confident about it with each passing week.  Clearly health isnt an issue after his big game last week and the Ravens defense has been being run on like crazy in recent weeks. He’s a top 10 guy with this match-up.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Its weird for me to have this guy outside my top 15 and classify him as a love… but the Eagles offense has struggled a lot recently, losing three straight games. The Saints as an opponent is nice though as their defense has been bad and their offense has still been effective.  Look for a high scoring game and look for Maclin to have a big game.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – This guy has been playing like exactly the type of back that Steeler fans love to see. He’s quick to the hole and physical with the ball in his hands.  Ive heard some lofty comparisons to Bettis and while I won’t go there yet, I believe he is the new starting RB for the Steelers and in-line for 60% of the work, even after Mendenhall returns.  The Giants aren’t a great match-up here but in order to slow their pass rush, the Steelers will have to run the ball a good amount.

Hate

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – On talent alone, you HAVE to put him as a top 5 WR in the NFL.  Situation matters and the Cardinals are awful.  I still don’t know how they started 4-0 with no running game, no offensive line and just a slightly better than good defense.  This isn’t an 8 win ball-club even with the start and unless teams stop being successful at taking Fitz out of the game, I can’t even list him as a top 20 guy.  Sad to say but bench him.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – You may look at his recent performances and think he’s back.  I look at them and see a guy that can be productive against GREAT match ups, which is, with one exception, the only time he’s even been DECENT this year.  Guess what? Chicago is not a good match-up and Johnson is not a good play this week.  If he does well in this game, I will stand up and take notice and it WILL reflect in my rankings but I was actually disappointed with his performance last week so I am not going to reward him for being decent.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – I love their match-up and I like Thomas but he’s only gotten a fair-share of the work ONCE while Bush has been around and I’m not sold that he’s going to repeat that number of carries again.  Bush is a better back and especially for this match-up but Thomas is an OK fill-in or flex play as a goal line back if you need one pretty bad.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – If you’ve got Romo, you NEED other options.  Romo is like Jay Cutler without the good games this year.  He simply isn’t a starting caliber fantasy QB any longer.

Mike Williams, WR, TB – Listen, I know he’s been good and I know that I wrote a section above this about the nice match-up, etc… But the WR talent pool is as deep as it’s been in my lifetime and Williams has not PROVEN to be a consistent threat. With bye weeks, he’s an acceptable plug in but he’s at 35 in my rankings… you can find better.

Michael Bush, RB, CHI – Did you think I was kidding in my one-liners post? Nope. HE is outside my top 30 and SHOULD be benched if at all possible.

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Oct
25
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 8

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Love

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN – Willis has been good this year but he hasn’t done enough to deserve the top 10 rankings that he got this week.  The ranking is really about match-up with the Saints coming to Denver this week.  The Saints are allowing over 160 yards per game and McGahee doesn’t really share the workload.  Lastly, the Broncos will look to control the clock and keep Brees on the sidelines so that he will have a positive effect on McGahee’s number of carries.

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Ponder has been really good, except for last week. Even with 4 teams on bye he didn’t crack my top 10, but he did come in higher than Romo, Stafford, Rivers and Freeman.  Tampa Bay has the third best rush defense in the NFL and the second worst pass defense in the NFL, what do you think Minnesota is going to try and do?

Antonio Brown, WR, PIT – Just one TD on the season is not really what fantasy owners were hoping for through 7 weeks of the season. This week is definitely where I look for him to have one of his best games of the season, if not the best.  The Redskins rank 32nd against the pass on defense and the fact that they have a VERY productive offense certainly helps things for the stats of their opponents.   Ben is probably going to face less pressure in this game than he has all season and Brown played pretty well last week.  Don’t think it’s time to bench Brown, it would be a big mistake.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – After two good games, I am ready to make a decision on Johnson.  He isn’t terrible! But his offensive line is.  He torched Buffalo last week and the Colts are another abysmal rush defense so the offensive line shouldn’t really keep him from some decent numbers.  Once the easy match-ups are done, I am selling this guy as fast as humanly possible.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – Thomas is the 15th highest scoring receiver in the NFL for fantasy owners but cracks my top 5 this week in my rankings.  Why? Well simply put, Brees WILL score points and while I wrote earlier that the Broncos will try and control the clock, there will come a time when that goes out the window and they will have to stretch the field vertically. With the Bronco defense not playing well this year, this game has a LOT of shoot out potential.

Hate

Denarius Moore, WR, OAK – I’ve seen some REALLY high rankings for Moore this week and I don’t get it.  I’m high on his chances at being a WR2 or quality flex play the rest of the way but with Brady Quinn at the helm and the Chiefs having a pretty poor rush defense, I am thinking that this will be more of a bounce back game for McFadden than a break out game for Moore.

Matthew Stafford, QB, DET – The Lions have been a pretty big disappointment this season and Stafford’s fantasy owners have felt it almost as much as Lions fans. OK, probably not that much but I promise you, it’s bad.  After last week, I’ve given up on Stafford as someone worth considering as a starting QB. I know his point total at the end of the game was decent but it all came in the last half of the 4th quarter.  He did a tad bit more than nothing through the rest of the game and isn’t even finding Calvin Johnson anymore. If your still a playoff contender, you need to make a trade.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI – Talent isn’t the issue but the rest of his offense is.  The line is poor on their best day and they have not been able to run the ball with any sort of consistency.

Shonne Greene, RB, NYJ – Miami has a really strong rush defense and a secondary that  could use some work.  This game will need to be won on the arm of Mark Sanchez, NOT on the legs of Greene.  Despite the last two games from Greene, he is NOT even an RB2 the rest of the way.  You can do better, I hope.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – He’s been a very solid performer recently but Champ Bailey will be covering him is my guess and Colston has a LONG track record of inconsistency.  Play him but don’t expect huge numbers.  He is just a below average WR2 this week and a poor one when there are no byes.

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Oct
09
2012

Studs And Duds From Week 5

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Studs

Marques Colston, WR, NO – So typically Colston is a very hit or miss player but with two simply great performances in a row, fantasy owners might just be falling in love… Don’t. This is what he has done for years, he WILL finish the season as a top 15 or so WR every year and it will be because of a few really big games and a whole slew of mediocre or worse ones.  Despite that, I enjoy drafting Colston because if he often slips far down and if he gets a couple of these games in a row, someone will be willing to pick him up in a trade. Try and sell high if you can but do not expect Colston to be turning into a new #1 WR.

Andrew Luck, QB, IND – Indianapolis Colts fans should be almost as excited as dynasty league fantasy-owners of Andrew Luck as he won a really big statement making game against the Packers this week. Watch the game if you can, it was an incredible drive where Luck continued to find Reggie Wayne despite all 11 defenders being fully aware that he was the target the entire time.  Luck is climbing the ranks of #2 QBs at the moment but I would still be surprised to see him crack the top 10 at all.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – 30 carries and 200 yards is exactly what you want to see if you have an irrational fear of odd numbers.  Really a very impressive outing from a guy that we thought would be sharing the load with Andre Brown.  I’m not dropping Brown yet however because Bradshaw isn’t known for durability and the Giants would be smart to let Brown keep him healthy a bit more than was the plan this week. Bradshaw will be ranked somewhere around the 10-15 range I am thinking right now.

Reggie Wayne, WR, IND – What a phenomenal game here from Wayne. I mentioned him above so I’ll just throw the numbers at you. 20 targets, 13 receptions, 212 yards and a score. He was super human and he is not going to stop any time soon.  He has a slew of awesome match ups until week 15 against the Texans seems likely to dampen his numbers.  Kudos to you for this draft day steal, might be the biggest one of the year.

Alex Smith, QB, SF – Yes, I am bitter about it but I almost didn’t put Smith in the list as his numbers were more a by-product of abysmal coverage by my Bills on Sunday than anything else. That isn’t really fair because they registered for fantasy owners all the same. You wish you had Alex Smith to back up Matthew Stafford this week because 28 points is always a welcome sight from your back up QB. Don’t overreact though because sadly, my Bills’ secondary IS that bad.

Stevan Ridley, RB, NE – So you will always have this lingering thought in your head whispering “committee back” but the numbers are there. Another big week with 28 carries 151 yards and a TD. I can’t imagine a scenario where your team is so good that you aren’t starting this guy.  I don’t think he is a sell high unless someone is absolutely in love with him and thinks he’s a top 5 guy but he is an ideal #2 RB at the moment.

Duds

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – He has elite-level upside but he isn’t showing me the consistency to think that he will always be a top 10 guy.  It’ll take an especially tough match-up to drop him that low but you have to be worried and you HAVE to have another option at your disposal at this point.

Stevie Johnson, WR, BUF – The Bills absolutely sucked. The offense was completely inept and while no one was surprised that they got smothered by the 49ers defense, I ranked Johnson well on an expectation of junk-time.  Boy was there a TON of junk time.  San Francisco pulled their starters with like 9 minutes left and yet still… three points. Disappointing. Johnson might just prove to be a frustrating player the rest of the way as he almost alternates between good and bad match ups. I think the Bills will beat the really bad teams but continue to struggle against talented ones.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN – I never am happy to see a guy get injured but law firm owners are lucky that Bernard Scott got hurt in this game because the Bengals had Scott in the game for the entire second series so indications were that a time share was incoming for the Bengals offense. I guess it’s back to the original high volume plan for Green-Ellis.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I say it a ton but honestly, can you really count on this guy ever again? Completely random good weeks don’t help anyone. The fact that he did well against Houston of all teams makes this all the more frustrating. Don’t own him anymore.  Someone will pick him up and he WILL be a blight on their roster.

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – There is no secondary elite tier anymore. Gates used to be the only one there and I’m over that. Wake me up when he gets double digit points.

Darren Sproles, RB, NO – Bye weeks are the ONLY reason that he will likely remain inside or around the top 20-25. Hugely disappointing year in my opinion so far.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – I haven’t seen this game yet but I don’t have to in order to understand that fantasy owners aren’t going to like one point. The stats tell me that New York’s defense is still at least average in the passing game and Schaub wasn’t at his best. This will happen on such a run-focused team but you still gotta start this guy.

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Oct
08
2012

Waiver Wire Pickups and The Dump List for Week 6

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Pickups

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT – He’s still available in over 18% of leagues. He was drafted low because it would take time to see the field but he is back now and helped out any fantasy owners who risked using him as a bye week replacement. He won’t be great but he is certainly someone that will get flex consideration and will serve you well when you have bye week problems of your own.

Chris Givens, WR, STL – Amendola suffered a bizarre injury in the Thursday night game and SOMEONE has to catch some balls in this offense. Givens had the most targets other than Amendola in this game as well as the big insurance score.  That play was his only catch so DEFINITELY don’t try and use Givens quite yet but if you don’t need a receiver for a couple weeks, he has a chance to rack up some stats while Amendola is out.

Kendall Hunter, RB, SF – Obviously San Francisco isn’t going to be decimating teams like they have the past couple of weeks but Hunter is probably the best handcuff option in the league right now.  Gore may be playing great but Hunter has also been really effective with his limited time.  Gore is getting up there in age and San Fran loves to pound the running game so I think Gore is a likely candidate to miss a couple games. Everyone who owns Gore should make a run at this guy.

Kendall Wright, WR, TEN – He was a popular preseason sleeper and he struggled early.  His stock is on the rise again after 9 grabs on 11 targets. He didn’t break double digit points but what he was able to do was impressive considering just how bad this Titans team is through 5 weeks. He’s a flex possibility for bye weeks and injuries.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN – So a lot of people, myself included, like to play TE roulette on free agency all year and Rudolph might be worth holding on to.  I almost NEVER carry multiple tight ends on my roster so with a matchup against the Redskins next week, Rudolph is as likely as ever to score a TD and have a big day. Take note Jimmy Graham owners, he is on bye next week!

Jordan Norwood, WR, CLE – So clearly there aren’t very many injuries or shake ups this week because Jordan Norwood has graced one of my posts.  You’d need to be in a pretty deep league to go for this guy in my opinion but over the past two weeks he has 13 catches on 14 targets.  There has been some chemistry between him and Brandon Weeden, which can not be denied so if your digging really deep, then as long as Massaquoi is out, Norwood has a chance to be productive.

Dump List

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – You almost get two bonuses when you drop Johnson at this point. A) you don’t have to waste time thinking about this walking disappointment and B) one of the other guys in your league does! What kind of damage has he done to your weekly match-ups thus far?

Donnie Avery, WR, IND – If you truly won’t need him for a while, you can hold him.  The Colts looked better than I thought they were going into this game against the Packers.  It was a huge win and the manner in which Luck drove down the field on the final drive might just be a foreshadowing of the future for Indianapolis fans. Avery will have some nice games but given how successful they were without using him, I have a hard time trusting him for next week.

Dexter McCluster, RB/WR, KC – There just is nothing going on in Kansas City not named Jamaal Charles that I want to be a part of at the moment. Hold him in PPR leagues but you can’t play him.

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Sep
25
2012

Studs And Duds From Week 3

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Studs

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – I love this time of year for fantasy owners. Weeks 2 and 3 teach us more about our draft strategies and tell us a lot about how good our teams will be for the rest of the way.  The verdict isn’t fully in on Charles yet but I did learn a lot in the last two games.  The first thing I learned is that if Charles isn’t performing well or suffering ANY pain in his knee, he will sit. The second thing I learned is that I am not worried about that.  Charles had THIRTY THREE carries just one game after he only managed one fantasy point and didn’t play in the 2nd half of week 2.  33 carries isn’t going to repeat itself, not for this runner in that offense but at least we KNOW he’s got his speed and lateral quickness back.  And if your thinking that these impressive numbers are all about that one big play… without it he still average 4.4 yards per carry on 32 carries.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – God bless this man and his family.  Smith played in this game very shortly after learning of his brother’s motorcycle accident that resulted in his death. Where he summoned the strength required to put up this performance, I couldn’t ever figure out. He hauled in 6 catches on 10 targets for 127 yards and two scores.  Not much else to say here as performances like this speak for themselves.

Andre Brown, RB, NYG – I rated Brown as a low-end RB2 or good flex-play this week but I didn’t expect the numbers he put up.  I also didn’t expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to collapse and hand the game to the Giants either.  That is why Brown looked so good… because the Panthers played awfully.  Regardless, Brown showed some traits that make him a solid RB2 for as long as Bradshaw is out and those traits were vision and patience.  Brown saw holes before they developed and the reason I know this is because he would delay himself behind his blockers and wait for them to open before putting on a burst and getting through them.  It was a very impressive performance.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT – Ben had a great game and did what he could to get the win and it worked for many of his fantasy owners at least… Ben was 36/49 for 384 yards with 4 TDs and no turnovers.  These stats are impressive considering the offensive line that guards him. He will remain a streaky player and he isn’t a reliable QB1 but when the defense isn’t particularly adept at rushing the QB, he will be ranked as one for the week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC – There was a lot of mystery around MJD at fantasy drafts.  We all expected the team to struggle but even through struggles, MJD was always a productive and elite fantasy back.  There is a big stigma surrounding players that hold out of their contracts.  Players like Chris Johnson have done it and then collapsed into complete irrelevance ever since and others come back only to suffer an early-season injury and cost fantasy-owners dearly.  MJD put those fears to bed and debunked the myth in this game.  He simply looked great in this game and had the numbers to back it up, 193 total yards and a score.  Even if he goes out and gets hurt next week, I think it’s safe to say it wasn’t because of the hold out.

Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET – He might be a second year player but Week 3 was Mikel’s first ever game. 26 carries, 100 yards and a TD. Funny thing is, the Lions always wanted him to be a weekly 100 yard rusher so expect them to keep giving him the opportunity to fulfill this need.

Duds

Mark Ingram, RB, NO – Another week and another loss for the Saints.  Ingram had fantasy value on draft day because he was the goal line back on an elite offense. Woops, this offense and this team are not what we thought they would be and neither is Ingram.

Antonio Gates, TE, SD – Admittedly the entire team stayed at home on Sunday, but Gates has NOT been worth a round 10 or higher draft pick yet. He has been drafted in higher than the 10th round in just about every league.  Most frustrating thing about this is that Rosario scored three times in Gates’ absence.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB, PIT – I had previously thought that this was the guy to own of the Steelers’ running backs. Now I just don’t want to own any of them but Mendenhall and I promise, my expectations are pretty low for him too.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN – I know that the match-up was bad against Houston but Thomas had shown himself to be the top receiver in that offense.  If the Broncos are going to be a playoff contender, then Thomas must stand up and make plays in the tough games.  His value won’t take a hit from one game but it certainly got my attention.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE – I am not going to pretend like this guy isn’t still the #2 TE for fantasy owners but there is a reason I put Graham at #1 and this is why.  Gronk will do this at least one more time over the course of the season, twice if Hernandez is out a while.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – I said to drop him in yesterday’s article. I’ve got nothing left to add today.

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – Oh Dallas, you got the win but what happened? The Buccaneers secondary has played terribly and yet, the Cowboys could only manage 283 yards passing and an INT. Disappointing and from the limited film I’ve seen on the game, it was Romo’s fault.

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Sep
24
2012

Waiver Wire Pickups and The Dump List for Week 4

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Pick-ups

 

Mikel Leshoure, RB, DET – Stafford left the game with an injury and even though Shaun Hill is on this list and consistently performs as the back-up, the Lions would be sure to run more than normal.  Leshoure really, to me at least, cemented his role as the lead back simply because they invested a high draft pick on him and can finally use him. That is why he was used heavily in his first game and considering he did really well with his opportunities (100 yards and a TD on 26 carries), I can’t imagine he doesn’t get the feature-back for as long as he continues to be productive.  We are talking about an immediate playable guy in the flex and a potential RB2, make sure he’s owned in your league.

Lance Moore, WR, NO – I’ve really been on the fence about Moore for standard leagues.  He’s always been a must own for PPR players but with Colston working the middle and Graham owning the red zone, he just hasn’t been consistent enough to ever be comfortable with starting with out the points for receptions. My attitude always was if I won’t play him, why own him? Well with Meachem gone, I expected Henderson to see more of an increase in targets and not really so much for Moore and the rest.  I’m not convinced that I was wrong and that Moore can be a viable flex play or bye-week fill-in, which makes him someone that I actually would like to own.  He isn’t widely available but 20% of leagues still have him available.

Daniel Thomas, RB, MIA – Early reports indicate that Reggie Bush is not likely to miss extended time. He might play Sunday but since Thomas got the goal line TD BEFORE Bush left the game, you can expect them to call Thomas’ number in place of Bush’s this week.  I would have put Lamar Miller here in place of Thomas if Bush was going to miss a few weeks as I think Miller is the better player but on a short-term basis, they seem to trust Thomas more right now.

Tashard Choice, RB, BUF – Keep an eye on this and be cautious with this move because there are already talks of Fred Jackson wearing a special brace and playing against the Patriots in week 4 but that seems awful risky if Spiller is looking like a 3-4 week injury.  Choice had 91 yards on 20 carries after Spiller left with a shoulder injury early in the game.   Choice is going to wind up a top 20 RB behind this offensive line, which has been phenomenal this season.  The holes have been wide-open in the running game and Fitzpatrick and the Bills are #1 in the league in sacks allowed with a measly one.

Shaun Hill, QB, DET – If we hear any good news by tomorrow night for Stafford’s week 4 status, you should cancel any claims to get this guy (unless you actually own Stafford yourself) but if you need a QB and Stafford doesn’t play… Hill has always been very good when given the chance.  I think he might even be “safer” than Stafford after what I’ve seen this year, but you shouldn’t expect the same upside.

Andre Brown, RB, NYG – I’ll spare you too many stats and just say that after how this guy played on Thursday, Bradshaw better come back quickly if he like’s being the main-guy. New York is Brown’s third team in as many seasons but he was never given a chance in Denver or Indianapolis and has a real chance to blow up as a huge waiver wire acquisition on the season. I wouldn’t expect him to be an RB1 but if he keeps performing, he’ll split carries with Bradshaw when he comes back and could be a nice flex play.  He should now be 100% owned.

Dump List

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Yea, I said it. I’m ready for this. He is going to have a couple of big games this year but do you really want to guess which weeks? I don’t. Tennessee racked up 437 yards in this game. CJ only had just 29! That includes his 5 yard reception too.  Johnson carried 14 times and only had one decent run the entire game. If, in a shoot-out, he’s not going to be a factor in the offense then I can’t imagine he is a productive fantasy player at any point this year, apart from a couple long TDs that his speed are bound to give him on accident.

David Wilson, RB, NYG – Well, there goes Wilson’s chances at being a productive back this year… Brown did great and he just won’t be getting enough chances to retain any value before Bradshaw gets back.

Randy Moss, WR, SF – If he wasn’t going to be a big-time performer again, we’d know it by now.  I was waiting until after he played a former team to make up my mind for sure, thinking they might try and look his way due to the added motivation but now the 49ers look human so I’m REALLY ready to drop Moss for good. Don’t worry, it’s why you took him in the 13 round or later!

Mark Ingram, RB, NO – As long as this team is struggling, it wouldn’t break my heart to drop the goal-line back. Pierre Thomas has been a much better player so far and Sproles finally saw a few carries this week two. I’m just finished waiting for this guy to have value.

Peyton Hillis, RB, KC – You should hold him a little longer but Charles saw a shocking 28 carries on Sunday.  I know, I know, Hillis did get hurt early in the 3rd quarter.  But you can’t really defend a guy that only saw 3 carries in the first half.  Shaun Draughn wasn’t great either but he had his moments and now gets a chance to compete for the #2 job.

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Sep
19
2012

Love and Hate Lists for Week 3

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Love

Robert Griffen III, QB, WAS – This is a limited love and probably not as outlandish as some other people might have this guy. I’ve got him 6th this week in my QB rankings because I would still be starting each of the top 5 guys from draft day over him.  Each of them has had at least one very mediocre week and Griffen hasn’t yet, statistically.  To me, two weeks is still a pretty small sample size and while I am being impressed by the week, I still think it is important to keep expectations manageable so that you don’t get burned.  I see a lot of Rodgers and Brady owners panicking and making trades so this creates a nice opportunity for Griffen owners to upgrade their team and, in my opinion, eliminate risk by getting rid of him.  I’ve heard of offers like Brady and Lloyd for Griffen and think they are an absolute steal.

Frank Gore, RB, SF – I personally believed that Gore and Turner still had what it takes to be an RB1 for fantasy owners. Thankfully I was at least right about Gore! He’s been a  powerhouse so far and this team looks almost unbeatable.  They are playing an old-school defense-first style that relies on the run game to wear opponents down.  They are passing more this year with Smith progressing beautifully in this offense but they revolve around Gore and the ground game.

Victor Cruz, WR, NYG – Well, it might not be clear in my rankings because after I had published the receivers, I found out that Hakeem Nicks will be inactive in this game for the Giants.  The defense is not one that scares me for the Panthers and if Nicks isn’t there, the sky is the limit for targets going Cruz’s way.

Alfred Morris, RB, WAS – Another week of primary work and he looked good doing it.  His stats won’t knock you out of your chair but the game-film sure impressed me. He was quick through the hole, which is important but the two things that caught my eye the most was his vision and how he finished the runs. He did a phenomenal job of seeing holes before they opened as well as found his cut-back lanes. I’d like to see him get more carries still but this game became a shoot out and Griffen was able to keep up right up until the end.  I normally wouldnt have loved him against Cinci but after last week, I’m just not scared of them at the moment.

Dez Bryant, WR, DAL – I know that your looking at the box score against the Seahawks and asking how I can love this guy but guess what, I love Austin too! They play Tampa who is fresh off of allowing 500+ yards to Eli Manning and sits as the NFL’s worst ranked pass defense. I used to give a lot more respect to Talib but he didn’t finish last season strong and Nicks destroyed him last week.

Martellus Bennett, TE, NYG – I said in my weekly pickups list this week that Bennett was the #3 option in the passing game for the Giants. I said in the Cruz section of this column that Nicks is out. BIG boost to Bennett here because he is the best red zone threat and now the #2 option in the passing game.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – Who isn’t in love with this guy right now? I don’t know but he’s putting up unbelievable stats and I’ve been saying it a lot but he’s the first guy since Jim Brown to average over 10 yards per carry over multiple weeks.  The Bills o-line is playing some REALLY good football thus far and Spiller seems to be breaking out and is showing the potential that Buffalo saw on draft day.  On top of all that, they play Cleveland who is short Joe Haden on defense and this will make it a lot harder to get that 8th guy around the line of scrimmage. The Browns have allowed an average of 115 yards per game on the ground over the first two weeks and Spiller simply CAN NOT be benched.

Hate

Peyton Manning, QB, DEN – This isn’t due to his first quarter on Monday.  This is because of the opponent, Houston.  The Texans defense has been great thus far and with the running game firing on all cylinders, I do not think that the Broncos D-line will be having a very good week.  If the Texans can control the ball as well as the clock like I think they will, Peyton will spend a lot of time watching from the sidelines. If you’re in a 12 team league, he rates as a starter but barely. I assume you drafted yourself a competent back up and this is a week you should try and use them.

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN – Seriously, what the hell CJ. You show a ray of hope in the preseason and get me to buy in on you. He was a first round pick! Now that the season has started, the line can’t block even a little and he just seems to being going for the home run on every play at the cost of quality 5 yard rushes that he could have if he’d hit the hole and lower his head to initiate contact with the defender. If anyone in your league still believes, trade this guy away because I’m finished if he doesn’t succeed this week.  He’s outside my top 20 already and falling fast.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE – The Ravens are on the schedule for Brady and the Pats and this is definitely a cause for concern for the Pats, who just lost to the Cardinals. Lloyd is now the top fantasy-WR on the team in my eyes but I still have Welker higher for this week alone.  Lloyd wants to work vertically but the Ravens pass rush is going to reach Brady and I think Welker gets back on the field more without Hernandez out there to play a possession-receiver role from the TE position.  You can use him this week but I ranked him as a mediocre flex-play.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL – There is just something about what happened in that game that has me really nervous here.  Jackson attempted a goal line rush and after his elbow touched the ground, the ball came out and it was ruled a fumble.  It took a challenge to get it right and on the next play, he felt he was in the endzone and was ruled short by an inch. He got up and spiked the ball out of frustration and got a 15 yard penalty and all they could get was the 3 points. Jeff Fischer never put him back in and Richardson ran well after Jackson was pulled.  You can tell me he has a groin injury but I still saw him standing next to Fisher for 2 series with his helmet under his arm. Exactly like I did in High School every week with hopes it might mean some playing time.

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL – The Ravens, unlike the Pats, will do a decent job giving the QB time to throw.  Boldin is becoming invisible fast and Smith’s targets are on the rise. The Pats secondary is still weak, despite containing Larry Fitzgerald in the Loss to the Cards.

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