Question 1: Asked by @bereninga

Should Spiller start over Ogbonnaya or Hardesty? I have all three.

Answer

I think I would, unless Hardesty AND Hillis are both inactive this week. The sheer number of carries that Spiller is bound to get combined with his big-play potential give him enough upside.  The Browns face a very stout Bengals defense this week so yardage will be tough to come by. If there is a time-share as well, then I think I would rather take the chance that Spiller breaks a big run off on the Jets.

Question 2: Asked by @Dena_Beth

Pretty sure I know the answer but should I play Victor Cruz and Steve Smith for my Wide Receivers and sit Santonio Holmes?

Answer

This seems right to me. It is admittedly close between Cruz and Holmes but with Manningham banged up and listed as questionable, I think that Cruz is bound to see an increase in targets.  Cruz has been coming along really nicely and progressing with each game. He may be a bit hit-or-miss but he has manage enough consistency that I think you need to start him and take the risk.

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Pickups

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – Smith is the one of the biggest surprises of the week as he tallied the most fantasy points of anyone in the NFL on Sunday and yet no one had him started on their team. This obviously makes him very likely to be a hot pick up and with the Jahvid Best injury situation so up in the air, I see no reason why this guy shouldn’t be owned in every league.

Santana Moss, WR, WAS – Even though the Redskins are in shambles, Moss is a very good playmaker that creates bad match ups lined up as the slot receiver.  Shanahan has been pretty good at utilizing him when he was healthy and while the team will likely continue to struggle, Moss should mean good things for their offensive production. He was playing like a WR2 or really good flex-play before his injury.

Toby Gerhart, RB, MINN – Peterson said that he was hoping to be out there next week but he won’t be if he has a high-ankle sprain.  We need to hear the results of today’s MRI to know for sure but if you own Peterson, you can NOT afford to let someone else pick up Gerhart.

Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, CLE – This game was probably the best performance that a running back has had in Cleveland all season.  I still like Hardesty more but until he comes back and plays better than Ogbonnaya, I would rather own Ogbonnaya.

Carson Palmer, QB, OAK – It sure looks like Oakland is a playoff team and they aren’t likely to have their playoff seeding locked up before week 17.  They will only get better when McFadden comes back and Palmer will only get more acclimated to his new surroundings.  I wouldn’t say the sky is the limit but Palmer might just be a top 10 fantasy QB  again the rest of the way. Don’t let him continue to sit on free agency.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – Of the big-time injuries that happened to RBs this week, Jackson’s is the one that concerns me the least. Buffalo is reeling from their absurd list of injuries that occurred in this game and they had more than their fair share prior to this week. There are no amount of injuries that justify this performance against the Dolphins but if Jackson does miss a game, which could easily happen, Spiller will be the feature back and is worth a pick up if your throwing a Hail Mary trying to make the playoffs.

Joe McKnight, RB, NYJ – It looks like Greene and LT are both going to be back for the upcoming game against the Bills on Sunday.  If your in a deep league or have an open roster spot, you might want to look at McKnight.  The match-up is great and he ran the ball very well last week.  He may end up being the starting RB for the Jets before long.

Dump List

Maurice Morris, RB, DET – The emergence of Kevin Smith AND the chance that Jahvid Best comes back soon kills Morris’ value. Drop him in all leagues.

Michael Jenkins, WR, MIN – This group of receivers are un-ownable except for Harvin.  His value comes from his versatility and ability to score on a hand off, reception OR kick return. Ponder might be playing solid football but he isn’t a miracle worker and can’t keep Jenkins relevant to fantasy-owners.

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – With Torain appearing to be the starter, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Helu started next week, I am ok with Dropping Helu if you need to fill another spot on your roster. The unpredictability is maddening and I don’t think you can trust any Redskins RB to start at the moment anyways.

Vincent Brown, WR, SD – With Rivers playing so poorly and the offense as a whole struggling as a result, feel free to drop Brown already.  There aren’t many weeks left and with Floyd coming back soon, I don’t think Brown can make me trust him enough to be worth a start in the playoffs.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – Ok, so we know for sure that the Packers are just going to go to the air against everyone and when they do try and run, it will be with Starks.  There is no reason to own Grant anymore.  His value would remain pretty low even if Starks was placed on IR tomorrow.

Jason Hill, WR, JAC – Hill has been the receiver you want to own this season in Jacksonville but Gabbert hasn’t been able to gel with this offense so far this season and I just can’t imagine holding on to Hill or Mike Thomas in a standard league.  Gabbert was particularly bad this week and I would just cut your loses and get someone else to ride your bench if your still holding one of these guys.

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – If I had to pick a Redskins back to own, it would be Torain. I would assume if you are that desperate for an RB, its a rough season.  If he is just going to sit on your bench, drop him. There is a handcuff that would be better out there anyways.

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Pickups

Javon Ringer, RB, TEN – Chris Johnson is clearly the bust of the 2011 season and the Titans seem to have caught on as well.  Ringer split carries evenly with CJ.5k as each back had 14.  Ringer was almost twice as productive on the ground and also out performed Johnson in the receiving game as well.  At this point I might rather own Ringer, but I truly believe that if you drafted Johnson you need to keep him and go down with the ship.

Eric Decker, WR, DEN – I may have called the Decker vs. Thomas decision a little early. I am not going to make a sweeping declaration yet about who is the better play and the rankings of them in the future will be based off match up and how I think opposing defenses will treat each receiver. For now though, you should hope to use a different option even in your flex as Tebow really has not played very well over the two games he has started.

Reggie Bush, RB, MIA – This is very likely as good as it gets for Reggie this season but if you can put up over a hundred yards on fewer than 20 carries, you have my attention.  Bush is an underrated as an interior rusher but the issue is that Daniel Thomas is still better at it.  Bush needs to be owned after this performance and should make a decent flex play in the weeks that Thomas can not start.

Ben Obomanu, WR, SEA – Seattle has had their troubles and they certainly did continue in this game. One thing that can be said is that they were able to stretch the field vertically in the passing game. Obomanu and Rice were over 100 yards and Baldwin was over 70 as well.  The Seahawks are going to keep falling behind and the will have to pass. If Obamanu can keep getting open deep he will put up some decent numbers, even if it is in junk-time.

Christian Ponder, QB, MIN – Ponder did more than win this game, he played very well.  When you have a back like Adrian Peterson all you really need to do is manage the game and minimize mistakes. A missed field goal that would tie the game in the closing seconds does help but if your in a deep league or a 2 QB league, I think Ponder should be good for double digit fantasy points on a weekly basis.

Dump List

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR – When Carolina gets to the goal line, they use Cam Newton or Jonathan Stewart. Williams got a big contract extension and really hasn’t been proving that he was worth it. He will need to start breaking off some big TD runs to be of much value to fantasy owners.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, NE – Still owned in over 50% of leagues. Really people?

Ryan Torain, RB, WAS – Torain and the Redskins have had three pretty good match ups in a row and in these three weeks, Torain has totaled three fantasy points.  I will be ranking Helu highest of the three, but have no confidence in ANY Redskin apart from Fred Davis.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – He is still owned in about 25% of leagues and this is too much. With Fred Jackson playing out of his mind, there is no reason to expect Spiller to get on the field and be much of a factor.

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Pickups

Mewelde Moore, RB, PIT – I don’t quite understand why Mendenhall saw such a limited number of carries this week, but if Moore is able to keep seeing such a big workload then he will steal some of the value that Mendenhall has had in the first half of the season.  I wouldn’t be comfortable starting him quite yet, but Sunday night’s game makes it so that Moore has to be owned in standard leagues.

Reggie Bush, RB, NO - If you have owned Reggie in the past, then you understand this warning; he is an incredibly frustrating guy to own!  Bush has never been a very strong option for fantasy owners, but his big play ability can provide some incredibly high-scoring weeks.  Unfortunately for you, it is seemingly at random and almost impossible to predict.  If Pierre Thomas remains inactive after the return of Bush, I will likely rate him as a RB2 because of the additional, more traditional, carries that will fall to him.

Danny Amendola, WR, STL – It isn’t like he is going to become an elite receiver or anything considering how long it has been since his last big game, but he is definitely still worth owning.  The Rams are playing some very solid football this season this will not be the last time Amendola will have a productive outing for fantasy owners.  If you are in a PPR format, this could be a very solid flex play in the 2nd half given there are no dominant secondaries left on their schedule.

Justin Forsett, RB, SEA – I still like Marshawn Lynch the most of the RBs in Seattle, but with more fantasy points coming from Forsett this week than Lynch… we will have to keep a close eye on how the workload gets divided up.  This week against the Cardinals, Forsett managed more than double the yardage of Lynch on less carries and both of them were able to manage a touchdown.

Kevin Smith, RB, DET - If you can’t produce a decent amount of yardage against the Bills defense, then your probably not someone fantasy owners should trust!  Jahvid Best came in at 11 in my rankings and was only able to manage THREE points on his 21 touches.  Smith on the other-hand only saw 9 touches and with his production in the receiving game he was able to manage 5 points.  Neither are really worth the start until one produces consistently… but both should be owned for the time being.

Cadillac Williams, RB, TB - Blount is definitely the guy for the Buccaneers running game, but Cadillac is solid flex option/handcuff for the playoffs and second half of the season.  Especially considering the really easy schedule the Bucs have for your fantasy playoffs!

Dump List

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF – Take his complete lack of production and the HUGE performance from Freddie Jackson and add in the hamstring injury that took Spiller out of this game… there is literally no upside left to make you wanna cling to this bad draft day decision.

Roy Williams, WR, DAL – Even with the complete turnaround of the Cowboys this week, I don’t see it worth holding Williams if there is someone of value available on the waiver wire.  Kitna is a game manager and is not likely to be able to keep THREE receivers as viable options for fantasy owners.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR, JAC – I am sure there will be at least one more good performance from MSW this season, but if he couldn’t manage one against the Texans… how can you trust him again!?  Go pick up Mike Thomas if you really want a Jaguars receiver!

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Pickups

James Jones, WR, GB - If you are in a very competitive league with people that do their homework, Jones will not still be available.  He had a huge day filling in for Driver this week and if he can keep it up while Driver gets back to 100% it is entirely possible that Jones becomes the new #2 receiver for Rodgers and the Packers. Don’t let him remain unowned in your league for another day.

Mike Tolbert, RB, SD - With Ryan Mathews leaving this game after re-aggravating the same injury that has been hampering him all season, it is easy to see a scenario where Tolbert takes the reins of this rushing offense and with him already getting the goal line carries he will be a top 20 RB if Mathews does miss time after the Chargers week 10 bye.

Mike Goodson, RB, CAR - Admittedly, you are going to need to be pretty desperate to pick up and start Goodson.  But, with DeAngelo Williams being out for 2 weeks in a row, Jonathan Stewart leaving this game with a concussion and Tyrell Sutton unable to finish the game either… Goodson could see 20 plus carries next week if Williams is not able to go.

Nate Burleson, WR, DET - This may all be a waste since Stafford is hurt again and has been the reason that Burleson has value.  But, if you are in a PPR league you should go for it anyways.  Calvin Johnson runs the deep routes all game and Burleson handles all of the possession routes.  In standard formats you should watch to see if Stafford is going to be OK before making a move on Burleson.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN - Anyone who thought Brett Favre was done was mistaken.  There is no quit in that senior citizen and that is demonstrated by him putting up a career-high 446 passing yards in a tough overtime victory over the struggling Cardinals.  This value will only hold until Sidney Rice returns and that could be as soon as this week.

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU - With a game coming up against the Jaguars, who can’t cover receivers to save their lives, Jones is a sleeper pick for Week 10.  Jones is a big, physical receiver much like Andre Johnson and this is one of the only weeks left on the schedule that is favorable for the Texans passing attack.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG - The Giants are an incredibly streaky team that goes from looking like an elite Super Bowl contender to looking inept on both sides of the ball.  For now, they look more like one of the best teams in the NFC and with a game against the Cowboys coming up in week 10, all their receiving threats get a significant upgrade in the rankings this week.  Manningham should be able to cover for you as a flex play this week if your having injury or bye-week issues.

Mike Thomas, WR, JAC - Thomas is my third option as a injury/bye-week fill-in this week.  The team that allows the second most points per week to the WR position is the Houston Texans.  This game should be filled with big passing plays due to how inept each secondary is and before their last game in week 8, Thomas was the best receiver for the Jaguars.

Dump List

Darren Sproles, RB, SD – It really looked like Sproles was going to go back to being used by the Chargers offense this week considering all the injuries to receivers and how effective he is in the passing game.  Unfortunately even when Mathews was knocked out of the game, Sproles did not get used and shouldn’t be trusted at all the rest of the year.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – He just doesn’t have it in him anymore.  The Panthers offense is struggling and there is no telling who will lineup at QB for them any given week.  That inconsistency and the below-average play of Stewart make him a complete bust for this season, so get out while you still may be able to salvage your team!

Brent Celek, TE, PHI - Vick just doesn’t look for Celek with any regularity.  You may not be able to find a better option on free agency, but if you can then don’t feel bad about dumping Celek.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - I don’t care how dynamic of a play maker he is, you can’t wait forever for this guy to prove his worth.  He is on a bad team, with an inconsistent offense and since he has only had one decent week all year, you can’t trust him to start him… so just drop him and let him be someone else’s headache.

Marion Barber, RB, DAL - The Cowboys are a bad team.  It may not have looked like it going into the season, but as they fight with the Bills for the number 1 draft pick and are completely unable to run the ball, there is no reason to hold on to their number 2 RB.

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Studs

Arian Foster, RB, HOU – This was an easy choice to top this list.  Foster was able to propel the Houston Texans past Peyton Manning and the Colts for a great start in their bid to win this division.  I do not think there is any way for Foster to sustain the production of a number 1 fantasy RB for an entire season.  He is however set to be one of the best number 2 RB’s in the league for his fantasy owners due to his ability to make an impact in the passing game as well. As always Coach Kubiak is going to reserve the right to lose his mind and not use him enough to be very effective, but after Sunday Even Kubiak will realize that Foster should be the guy.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI - This was an ugly game with a terrible ending, but not for Matt Forte and the Bears.  In a game where the Bears should have been lighting up the scoreboard Cutler struggled, made bad decisions, and turned the ball over.  This is not a huge surprise, but what was to me was the lack of production of the receiving corp.  Forte was the only spark that existed for the Bears and his two scoring plays were enough to beat the Lions after a terrible rule was enforced to ROB Megatron of a game-winning TD.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - While this game was great for Nicks’ fantasy owners this week, I do not like what it means for him in terms of consistency.  Touchdowns are random and unpredictable, even more so in the Giants offense where Smith, Boss and, to a lesser extent, Manningham compete for red zone targets.  If you take away the touchdown plays, which were 26, 19 and 5 yard passes, Nicks has only one catch for 25 yards.  He will be a very good flex play down the stretch but I might look to trade Nicks at a high value soon.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN - Carson Palmer looked terrible in the first half Sunday, but once the Patriots had the game locked up and started to employ some prevent defense Ochocinco and the Bengals’ receivers were able to rack up some decent yardage.  I still fear that Palmer’s play will decrease Chad’s value, but if you drafted him he is likely going to be your #2 WR as long as he is healthy.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK - He sure took advantage of Michael Bush’s absence but fantasy owners have been burned by Raiders running backs in the past so I would not start either McFadden or Bush yet.  With that said, you probably shouldn’t leave this guy unowned because he is making a strong case to the coaching staff to get the starting job after a good performance Sunday. No matter who it is, if either of these running backs are getting a majority of the work they will make a very viable starter for fantasy football owners.

Wes Welker, WR, NE - The Patriots did the best thing they could to get Welker the confidence back that he needs to play at 100%.  Often times with severe knee injuries the player will not be confident enough in the knee to make strong cuts.  Welker would not be effective if he was hesitant and not running perfect routes.  Welker was able to pull in 8 catches and 2 TDs which is a hell of a way to get your confidence back, welcome back Wes.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – When you think about what makes an elite fantasy WR consistency has to be at the top of the list.  After watching a shining example of how inept the Cowboys offense really can be it is comforting to see that Austin was still incredibly productive.  Austin caught 10 of the 11 passes thrown at him for 146 yards and a TD, even with Dez Bryant being very active in the offense.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - Revis did not stay on Boldin all game and because of it he he was able to be a difference maker on offense for the Ravens in the toughest match up they will face offensively. Boldin was targeted 10 times last night hauling in 7 of them for 110 yards.  This was much better than what was reasonable for us to expect and has me excited to see what he will do throughout the season.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – It may not have looked like it on your fantasy score sheet unless you are in a PPR league, but Roddy White had a very good game for fantasy owners this week.  He had 111 receiving yards on a league-high 13 receptions.  The more important statistic from this game is his targets, he was targeting 23 times by Matt Ryan.  White is the entire Falcons passing offense until they reach the red zone, when Tony Gonzalez becomes relevant again.  With all these opportunities and his talent he is bound to be productive on a consistent basis.

Duds

Frank Gore, RB, SF - I don’t know what happened in this game, I am stunned.  I still can’t figure out if the Seahawks are for real, or the 49ers are not who I thought they would be.  Every 49er deserves to make this list, but Gore will take the fall as he was by far the biggest disappointment for fantasy owners this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Arian Foster stole the show.  No one would bother to pass when you can run the ball like that and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  Houston is still one of the top 3 passing offenses in football.

Matt Schaub, QB, HOU – See Andre Johnson.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – After only managing 18 rushing yards and losing a fumble Shonn Greene cost his fantasy owners a point this week and crushing Monday night dreams of many I am sure.  The fumbling is the biggest concern, because if it continues there will be zero goal line chances for Greene.

Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – It appears that Jerome Harrison was not able to do enough to earn the starting job when he ended the season last year playing like one of the best running backs in the league.  I thought for sure that once Hardesty was put on IR Harrison would definitely be the guy, but Peyton Hillis is apparently going to cause a lot of guessing from week to week about who will have the best game for Cleveland.

CJ Spiller, RB, BUF - The best thing that could happen to this Bills offense is a healthy Fred Jackson.  Spiller does not have the ability to be an effective feature back in this league yet.  He will be valuable to the Bills in a change of pace role as the third down back.  A return to this role will increase his production in fantasy football as well, but if you have him you probably drafted him too high.

Thomas Jones, RB, KC – I was sort of wrong about Jones, I did not think he would have a decent opportunity to be productive in this Jamaal Charles offense.  Jones got the same number of carries as Charles and did nothing with them.  If Haley can’t see that Charles needs to be the feature back then he is blind.  They were able to win, but it was close and did not need to be.  Jones has minimal value to me down the stretch unless there is an injury to Charles, but you can’t drop him yet.

Bernard Berrian, WR, MIN – With all the injuries, there could not be much more opportunity for Berrian and Harvin.  I can accept a bad game from a young player much more than Berrian who is one more bad week away from my dumplist.

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This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

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I hope you are all as excited as I am that there is live football on TV again.  After each week of the regular season comes to a close I will discuss the Fantasy Football relevant news from the week.  Lets get started since week two is underway!

Ravens vs Panthers

This was not a confidence building game for the Ravens and their fans.  Flacco performed admirably without Ray Rice in the backfield to provide the balance that will make them so dangerous.  His absence also allowed the panthers secondary to focus on Boldin and keep him in check.  What this game taught me was that the Ravens need to have all the peices of the puzzle in place in order to be an elite offense.

On the other side of the ball I hoped we would start to see the emergence of a number two receiver for Matt Moore, but both Dwayne Jarrett and Bradon LaFell showed me nothing.  There was a nice 23 yard run by DeAngelo Williams, but with no Steve Smith in the game and as little time as we saw Matt Moore it is too early to judge this offense.

Raiders vs Cowboys

The one question i kept asking myself over and over after this game was “Is Heyward-Bey in some sort of witness protection program?” Seriously, considering what the Raiders gave up for this kid he has to start producing and fast to erase the memory of last year (9 receptions for 124 yards and 1 TD… embarrassing).  I thought Michael Bush looked mediocre at best and I  would hope to see that turn around in the preseason before I targeted him on draft day.  I still don’t see how people can pick this team to make a surprise playoff run until one of their receivers steps up to give that offense a vertical threat.

I have enjoyed watching Romo get back to his old buddy Miles Austin early and often this preseason.  There are serious question marks on the offensive line right now, but by using the playaction and letting Romo move out of the pocket some they should continue with the same level of production.  I expect Jason Witten to return to an elite fantasy TE this year as he is an incredible red zone target.

Bills vs Redskins

The Bills saw injuries to both Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson in Week 1 leaving all the first team reps to go to CJ Spiller.  If he can capitalize on these reps and produce throughout the rest of the preseason he will keep climbing in my rankings.  Last nights week 2 game was a great start at catching up to Jackson for Buffalo’s top ranked fantasy RB.

Gotta love McNabb, despite all the challenges of changing teams after so long in one system he came out and delivered in the limited time he was on the field.  He will be the Redskins biggest offensive playmaker and if you are waiting as long as I am this year to draft a QB (and you miss out on Flacco) then McNabb may just be a bargain for the price.  I am starting to tone down my love of Devin Thomas as a really late round pick as he just did not look natural catching the ball from McNabb or kick/punt returns.  And lastly, Clinton Portis looked strong out of the backfield and is climbing in my rankings.

Eagles vs Jaguars

I was very interested in how Kolb would do in this game.  The Jags do not have the most solid pass defense in the league and I really wanted to see him able to find the open guy and move them down the field.  He sure did that.  His first pass was to DeSean Jackson on a slant pattern he took for 20 yards.  He later connected on two deep balls, one a piece to DJax and Jeremy Maclin. The play I liked seeing the most was his scramble to pick up a key conversion on 3rd and 5 to extend a drive and get points on the board.

The Jaguars looked terrible, MJD is definitely the number three back and Mike Sims-Walker has value in the middle rounds, but David Garrard is why none of these players will be able to fulfill their potential this year.

Browns vs Packers

It feels funny not typing something bad about the Browns these days… But Jerome Harrison found the endzone and Delhomme went 6/7 and 60 yards.  They didn’t play long and couldn’t sustain that type of success against that defense.  But for fantasy we don’t need them to to have value.  I am more confident grabbing Harrison now than I was before I watched them march down the field against the Packers.

Ryan Grant gave me quite a scare with his fumble and mild concussion, however he is back at practice and won’t be missing any time in the regular season.  No reason to lower him at all in the rankings, he is already a great bargain.  Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings sure looked in sync with each other and raise expectations a bit.  The battle for my number 10 WR this year is getting pretty fierce between Jennings and Marques Colston.

Chargers vs Bears

Phillip Rivers is the key to the success of this team.  After watching this game Vincent Jackson must be disappointed because the Chargers were able to move the ball just fine through the air.  Malcom Floyd is going to do just fine as a deep threat and Legedu Naanee is certainly eligible for sleeper status now.  Rookie Ryan Mathews looked good in this game as well, performing as I would expect from a 2nd round fantasy RB.

Johnny Knox is clearly winning the number one job in this offense.  His vertical speed is the perfect fit for this offense, but I am keeping Aromashodu above Knox in my rankings since he makes for a better red zone target.

Other players who had notable outings in week 1:

Eddie Royal

Calvin Johnson

Cadillac Williams

Mike Williams (TB)

Matt Schaub

Victor Cruz

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CJ Spiller is introduced as a Buffalo Bill.

My Buffalo Bills are a team in disarray. However, new coach Chan Gailey is an offensive minded coach adept at devising a scheme to suit the talent on the field.  The two most obvious needs for this team after last season were quarterback and left tackle.  Now that the draft and the majority of free agency are over, the most obvious needs that the team has left are at… Quarterback and left tackle.  Trent Edwards is the presumptive starter for the beginning of the season until Coach Gailey tells us different, but we should not be surprised to see Brian Brohm or maybe even Ryan Fitzpatrick under center before long if Edwards is not producing wins.

Top Fantasy Players:

Fred Jackson – Jackson gets better with each carry that he receives, while the backfield is a bit crowded Jackson could end up being a solid RB2 option or at worst a flex play.

CJ Spiller – Spiller was hands down the most explosive offensive player in this years draft and Ralph Wilson has already anointed him the savior of the team.  Spiller will be a very versatile tool for Chan Gailey to use. Even with a small number of offensive touches, his use in the return game make him a decent flex option in 12 team leagues.

Lee Evans – Evans would be a stud WR on a team with a good offense, but in Buffalo he will be a flex option.

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Today I want to discuss some of the picks made in this year’s draft that will directly impact fantasy football.  It is pretty difficult for a rookie in a skill position to make a big enough splash statistically to be relevant in fantasy football, but as Percy Harvin owners can attest to… it happens.  Rookies are also often drafted higher in keeper leagues so that you can reserve them for future seasons.

Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers traded up aggressively to get the 11^th pick in the draft to get a new left tackle in Anthony Davis.  Davis is a prototypical left tackle at 6’5’’ 323 lbs; he has long arms and quick feet.  With their pick at number 17 they further fortify their offensive line with Mike Iupati.  Iupati is quick and athletic and is a sure fit at guard where he can pull around the edge and seal off lanes for Frank Gore.  These selections give the 49ers their physicality back up front and solidify Gore as my number four RB for next season’s draft.  Alex Smith also stands to benefit from better protection up front.

Sergio Kindle and Terrance Cody, Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens did not pick in the first round this year, but got two potential first round players with the 11^th and 25^th picks of round two.  The Ravens have been known as a defensive power house for years now, but since the emergence of Flacco, Ray Rice and now Anquan Boldin on the offensive side of the ball, the defense has slipped.  The 43^rd pick landed the Ravens a great edge rusher Sergio Kindle who will be transitioning from DE to OLB. The 57^th pick gives the Ravens a new 354 lb nose tackle in Alabama’s Terrence Cody, and has helped shore up the hurting front seven on defense.  With the addition of these two the Ravens do wonders for their defense and will return to a dominating force on that side of the ball.  As of now the Ravens are my number two ranked D/ST.

Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers – I liked Matt Moore’s production at the end of last season, and was planning to list him as a sleeper for the upcoming fantasy football draft season. The Panthers first pick in this year’s draft didn’t till the second round and they jumped on the opportunity to nab the most pro-ready QB in this year’s draft class… Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame was projected by many people to be a top 10 selection but he fell all the way down to the Panther’s lap at the 48^th pick.  Armanti Edwards was a QB in college but the plan is to transition him to wide receiver and utilize his throwing ability for trick plays and option plays out of the wildcat formation.  And to completely kill any chance that Matt Moore is going to start for any extended period of time they also ignored plenty of available needed talent to draft Tony Pike who played for the Cincinnati Bearcats.  Clausen is now the most viable QB from a fantasy standpoint but let’s be honest, you shouldn’t be drafting any of these guys.

Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings made a surprising and perplexing decision to move up in the second round to take Toby Gerhart with the 51^st pick in the draft.  Gerhart is a big physical back that is adept running between the tackles.  In his 2009 Heisman Trophy campaign he racked up 1,871 yards and 28 TDs.  He led the country in both categories, but lost the trophy to Mark Ingram Jr. of the University of Alabama by the closest margin in the history of the award (28-points). As impressive as Gerhart is I don’t think that an offense that has Adrian Peterson can get the most out of him.  The issue is that because Gerhart is bigger physically than Peterson the goal line carries could very well go to Gerhart.  The Vikes needed to replace Chester Taylor who was shiftier than Peterson and was a better 3^rd down back for screens and check down passes, and they did not get that back in Gerhart.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out and I won’t be downgrading AP from his number 2 spot because they will need him more on third down, but it will likely cost him some touchdowns by the end of the season.

Dexter McCluster, Kansas City Chiefs – The fourth pick in the 2^nd round belonged to the Chiefs and they ignored a gaping need on the offensive line to add a dynamic playmaker at the running back position in Dexter McCluster.  While McCluster can do more than play RB all he can really do is take work from Jamaal Charles both on offense and in the return game.

Sleeper picks from the draft for the coming fantasy season: CJ Spiller (BUF), Dez Bryant (DAL), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Ryan Mathews (SD), Dexter McCluster (KC – deep sleeper)

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