Lines

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Total
10/16 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-14	St. Louis	48
10/16 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-12	Jacksonville	40
10/16 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2	At Washington	47
10/16 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-4	San Francisco	46
10/16 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-4	Carolina	51
10/16 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-7	Indianapolis	41
10/16 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-3	Buffalo	50
10/16 4:05 ET	At Baltimore	-8	Houston	44.5
10/16 4:05 ET	At Oakland	-6.5	Cleveland	44.5
10/16 4:15 ET	At New England	-6.5	Dallas	55.5
10/16 4:15 ET	New Orleans	-4.5	At Tampa Bay	49.5

Sunday Night Football Line

10/16 8:30 ET

At Chicago

-3

Minnesota

41.5

Monday Night Football Line

10/17 8:35 ET

At NY Jets

-7

Miami

42.5

I’M TAKING

At Green Bay -14 St Louis

St Louis can’t get out of their own way and Green Bay’s passing attack is top notch.  There has not been a team yet this season that has stopped Aaron Rodgers, and his only “down” game this season was last Week in Atlanta when the Packers STILL covered the spread.  St. Louis, as I’ve been saying all season, may be competing with the Dolphins as the worst team in the league.  Sam Bradford will be spending a lot of time on his back and on the sidelines watching Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic at home at Lambeau.  This might be my favorite game of the week and I’ll take the Packers to cover -14.

At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville

Jacksonville’s defense has flown slightly under the radar this season but they just aren’t capable of keeping up with Big Ben.  It’s seems Mr. Handsy finally got his act together last week and threw for 5 TD’s in a big win.  Blaine Gabbert looks like he could be a good QB in the future but a road game at Heinz Field with the Steelers blitz packages ruining his day will certainly not make him look good.  I think Jacksonville will try to control the clock and pound the ball with MJD early, but I see the Steelers getting up by 14 at the half and not looking back.  I like Pittsburgh to cover -12 at home against an inexperienced Jags squad.

At Detroit -4 San Francisco

If anyone tells you that they thought SF and Detroit would be a combined 9-1 going into this game, they would either be lying, or should be passing you whatever they’re smoking on.  With Detroit’s stable of 1^st round/ high round picks it’s not hard to see why they’re successful.  But, SF is essentially getting the job done with retreads and a QB that was left for dead no less than two times since being taken #1 overall ahead of Mr. Aaron Rodgers.  SF has taken big steps forward this year un Harbaugh and I see them winning their weak division this season, but I just think that Detroit is too good not to win at home by a least a TD.  Stafford and Megatron have been on the same page all year and they show zero signs of being stopped.  Although I think SF keeps it relatively close, I like Detroit to cover -4 points.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At New England -6.5 Dallas

To tell you the truth I actually think I would bet Dallas getting 6.5 points in this game but Tom Brady’s ability to lead this team to a win and to dominate games at home scares the hell out of me.  Dallas offense is finally healthy coming off the bye week and New England’s last ranked defense can’t stop the pass at all, and in all honesty its flat out pathetic.  I think Dallas is actually going to pull out the win in this game.  I like the Cowboys with points but it’s in no way a safe bet.  I wouldn’t put money on this game unless you’re feeling lucky because it could swing back and forth all day and end up going either way

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis

Indy might be a disappointing team at 0-5 but since their switch to Curtis Painter they’ve been in every game and it’s been pretty close.  Cincy has a good defense and can keep their inconsistent offense in games.  I think Cincy has a chance to cover -7 and will probably do it.  My biggest issue is with betting the game, not the actual game.  You need to put your money on the safest games possible if you hope to win and with two unbelievably up and down teams like this, nothing is assured.  I stay away from games like these every Sunday and you should too.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Chicago -3 Minnesota

I’ve been down on Minnesota all season and I don’t care if they rode Adrian Peterson’s monster first half to a win last week.  They suck, McNabb sucks and they are a horrible team to put your money on.  Although Chicago hasn’t looked stellar so far this season they have the better team and its not up for debate.  With the home team only getting -3 points it makes you take a second to consider the game because Vegas is giving Minnesota more than a punchers chance in this one but I don’t like the Vikings at all this season and I’ll take Chicago to cover -3 at home.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At New York Jets -7 Miami

These two teams are both playing very ugly, unwatchable football this season, with Miami playing only slightly worse than the super talented Jets.  Miami is starting their backup QB Matt Moore this week and I think that even with the added time to prep with the bye week last week Miami still goes to the Jets and gets beat.  This game is going to be an ugly ass game to watch though and very easily could end up 14-6 the way these two teams are playing.  I don’t like this game to bet at all, but if you’re looking for my thoughts, I think the Jets bounce Miami and BARELY cover -7 points.

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The Lines

1:00

At Cincinnati -2.5 San Francisco

New England -9 At Buffalo

At New Orleans -4 Houston

At Philadelphia -5.5 NY Giants

At Cleveland -2.5 Miami

At Tennessee -7 Denver

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

At Carolina -3.5 Jacksonville

4:00

At San Diego -14.5 Kansas City

NY Jets -3.5 At Oakland

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

At Tampa Bay -1.5 Atlanta

Arizona -3 At Seattle

Green Bay -3.5 At Chicago

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Hello everyone.  I’ve been tasked with doing a weekly write-up here on Starting Fantasy Lineup about my thoughts on the betting lines for each weeks games.  I’ll be giving you a few games I’ll be putting my own money on (literally) as well as a few games to be careful with and three games every week you should avoid like the plague.  I’ll also be tracking my success weekly with my games to keep an overall record by seasons end.  I’m available at @ErikTheLineMan on Twitter so if you have any questions about this or any weeks games, feel free to ask away and I’ll give you my thoughts.  I’ll also be submitting last minute line changes to the site so that you have an accurate look at what the point spreads are looking like just before kickoff.  Thanks, and I look forward to hopefully help you win some money!

I’M TAKING

Baltimore -3.5 At St. Louis

It could be a long day for the Rams with the Ravens coming to town.  Although they came out flat on the road against Tennessee last week expect the veteran laden Ravens to show up in St. Louis with their hard hats ready to work.  I see the Ravens in line for a big day offensively, especially if Joe Flacco can find Lee Evans or Anquan Boldin open downfield as much as Hicks, Manningham and Hixon were in Week 2’s Monday Night game.  The Rams struggled against the relentless Giants pass rush and Bradford had trouble finding time to allow his receivers to get open against a horribly depleted Giants secondary.  He put up some decent yards but was pitiful inside the red zone excluding a BEAUTIFUL leaping catch by a much taller Denario Alexander, couldn’t get the ball across the goal line.  Week 3 does not bode much better for Bradford as Baltimore can bring the rush as well as any team in the league and Haloti Ngata and Co. do not allow much in the way of running room, especially in tight near the goal line.  Even if a banged up Steven Jackson returns he’s going to have a tough go of it.  If the line stays at Baltimore -6.5 or under by game time I’m banking on this game especially if it stays around -3.5 points.

Pittsburgh -10.5 At Indianapolis

Pittsburgh looked awful in a Week 1 blowout loss to the division rival Ravens, but bounced back in a big way in Week 2, albeit was to a Seahawks team that could easily go 2-14 in the worst division in football.  I think the Steelers game was a good tune-up opportunity for Big Ben and his boys to get things back on track and moving in the right direction.  They couldn’t have landed any better look at another win than playing a reeling Colts team in the dome in Indy.  The Steelers have 3 burners at WR and the fast track at Lucas Oil Stadium makes for a perfect storm for Roethlisberger to chuck the ball all over the place.  I’m sure this is not the matchup the NFL Scheduling Department had in mind when Peyton Manning was to be the starter and it is going to be a painful game to watch Sunday night for Indy fans.   Indy’s playbook is a daunting read and asking anyone outside of Rainman to digest it in two or three weeks is downright impossible.  Kerry Collins has looked his age in both games so far and the fact he’s even playing should shed some light on the abilities of Curtis Painter and the little faith the Colts front office has in him.  I’m guessing a Steelers team fresh off a shutout is not what Kerry Collins was hoping for this weekend.   This game will be ugly and I think the Steelers win on the road and cover -10.5 in a laugher.

Detroit -3.5 At Minnesota

When was the last time Detroit was a road favorite?  My guess….probably sometime during the Clinton Administration when actually having talent was a requirement for television, but I digress.   Detroit looks be the real deal and on the brink of a breakout season.  With a healthy Matthew Stafford finally showing signs of why he was taken #1 overall in 2009 and the always dangerous Megatron, it appears this team could be a legit threat to the Pack for the division title and at the least a Wild Card team come January.  Keep in mind Stafford is the same quarterback that held the record for most passing yards in a game by a rookie until Cam Newton’s week 1 performance and still holds the record for most TD’s in a game by a rookie QB with 5.  The kid can flat out play.  That’s to say nothing of the Ndamukong Suh led defense that is quickly becoming one of the most feared units in the NFC possibly behind only division rival Green Bay.  McNabb has lost more than a step as evidenced by the Vikes converting just one third down in the 2^nd half in the first two games (1 for 8).  Adrian Peterson can’t do it all, especially when McNabb can’t get out of his own way and teams stack 8 in the box.  Detroit covers -3.5.

BE CAREFUL WITH

At Dallas -5.5 Washington

Tony Romo suffered a cracked rib and punctured lung and still managed to come back and lead his team back to victory.  His status for Week 3 is clearly up in the air but I think John Kitna may be one of the best backup in the league as it means in regards to getting a win.  He looked good when called upon last week and had a decent season coming in after Romo broke his collarbone last year.  I think the Redskins are absolutely dreadful and I’m shocked they are sitting at 2-0.  Rex Grossman is a 5 INT game waiting to happen and he is notorious for throwing the ball up for grabs when under pressure which you know DeMarcus Ware & Co. are more than capable of bringing.  I’m just worried about the injuries to Romo, Miles Austin and the uncertain status of Dez Bryant.  I still think the Cowboys win this game but I’m just not sure they can cover -5.5 points with the injuries going on.  If the line drops a little lower I’d feel much better seeing them cover -3, but I still think you might be ok at -5.5 at home.

RUN THE OTHER WAY

At Philadelphia -5.5  NYG

Vick suffered a concussion last week against ATL and with the strict standards regarding concussions in the NFL the last few years Vick is going to be put through a barrage of tests to verify his safety before stepping out on the field Sunday. As of today’s writing (Wed 9/21) he had yet to take much less pass any of these tests.  The Eagles are “optimistic” he will start Sunday but if you take a team’s word at face value before the starting lineups have been submitted, you might need some crazy pills.  If Vick can’t go I see zero way Mike Kafka leads this team to a victory let alone cover -5.5 points.  If Vick does start the chances increase dramatically, even if he’s banged up.  But if you ask me, this paragraph contains WAY too many “ifs” and when it comes to betting that’s exactly the type of scenario you are looking to avoid. This game just has way too many question marks for me to feel safe about

At Cincinnati -2.5  San Francisco

Andy Dalton Vs. Alex Smith.  This game is going to be a QB lover’s wet dr….. Kidding of course.  This game is going to be a coin-toss plain and simple.  These two teams are just waaaay too up and (mostly) down to go anywhere near until further notice.  A recent history of ineptitude, Shaky QB’s and a lack of consistent playmakers on both sides of the ball for Cincy and San Francisco leave this game to be an absolute crapshoot.  Both teams have shown flashes this season, but almost always follow them up with head scratching plays.  I think SF is the better team, but there’s just no way to tell how this game ends and I want nothing to do with it.  I’m staying away and you should too.

At Cleveland -2.5  Miami

See above…..

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Saints at Falcons

This week’s Monday night game has been circled as the game of the season on my calendar since shortly after the Falcons went on the road to the Superdome to beat the Saints in week 3.  Going into this season many people (including myself) expected the Falcons to be a playoff team, but few expected them to be the class of the NFC.  Their dominance in front of their home crowd has been incredible and if they can manage one last home-win against the defending super bowl champion, the Falcons will lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This would make them the heavy favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year.

The Saints are playing for their last chance to reclaim the division title, but in order to do this the Falcons would need to lose both this week and in week 17 at home against the 2-12 Panthers.  After watching the Falcons defeat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, I am a firm believer in their ability to beat ANYONE inside the Georgia Dome and I expect them to earn a narrow victory this week.  There is one thing that I am 100% positive of, this will be a great game and a must-see for every football fan.  Neither team has a stellar defense and all fantasy-relevant players are must-starts for this potential shoot out.  Matt Ryan, because he is playing at home, found his way into my top 10 QBs this week and considering my playoff philosophy of down grading the impact of match-ups and playing the more trusted and safe option… this is a big show of my confidence in him.

Jets at Bears

The Jets were a team in disarray, their offense was inept and there seemed to be a lack of play makers to step up and lead by example on the field.  Last week, Mark Sanchez led the Jets to a confidence-building win over AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers.  The health of Sanchez is in question and it is looking as though he will be a game time decision, but for me it does not affect anyone’s fantasy value.  I do not trust Braylon Edwards in the playoffs against such a quality defense and Santonio Holmes remains the only Jet who I feel is worth a start in standard leagues.  Earlier in the season LaDainian Tomlinson WAS the difference maker for this offense, but due to his age he has slowed down and considering he has not scored a rushing TD since week 6, it is apparent that he is unable to fulfill this role any longer.  Now, in order to be the Super Bowl contender they were hoping to be earlier this year, they will need to look to their younger talent.

The Bears are division champions in their first year with offensive coordinator Mike Martz and their defense has quietly been one the best in the league.  They face another of the league’s best defenses and have a QB known for his poor decision making abilities.  The only Chicago player worth starting for fantasy-owners is Matt Forte but as I said in my Hate list yesterday, you should not expect a big game from him.  I think the Bears win this defensive battle, because they are a more balanced team and have bigger individual play makers on defense.  Julius Peppers is who I believe makes the difference in this game as he has done all season long for the Bears.

Colts at Raiders

All is right with the world, the Colts are back on top of their division.  They will need to finish the remainder of the season without Austin Collie due to his third head injury of the season and they will be a lesser offense because of it.  Joseph Addai is finally back to full participation in practice and appears to be a sure thing to start against a weak Raiders run defense.  He has missed enough time that I do not expect him to be featured as the lead back quite yet, but he will likely split carries with Donald Brown and make both of them too risky to start for fantasy-owners.  Reggie Wayne remains a top 10 WR this week despite facing Nnamdi Asomugha who, unlike Darelle Revis, does not typically shadow the opponent’s top receiver for the entire game.

The Raiders have been a surprising team this season.  Despite a mid-season QB controversy, the Raiders have found their way to 7-7 with a 5-0 record against divisional opponents. Because of this division record, they are heavily favored in tie-breakers and should find their way into the post season if they win these last two games.  They match up well against the Colts with their strong running game led by Darren McFadden, who is having a breakout, Pro Bowl caliber season.  Recently they have been trying to find ways to get the ball in the hands of Jacoby Ford, who has been a dynamic play maker in a variety of ways on both offense and special teams.  Being the playoffs however, Run DMC (McFadden) is the only player worth the risk in this game which I believe the Colts will win by a VERY narrow margin.

Giants at Packers

The Packers narrowly missed upsetting the New England Patriots last week with backup QB Matt Flynn in command of their offense.  Aaron Rodgers should be ready to go this week after his concussion that he suffered in week 14.  He faces one of the league’s best pass rushes, but this is one of the best passing attacks in the league and we can expect big statistical performances from both Rodgers and his top receiver, Greg Jennings. Green Bay has been hindered this season by their lack of a running game, but have been able to remain consistent for fantasy-owners despite this short-coming.  I do like the Packers to win this game, but I fear for their ability to succeed in the playoffs without a more balanced offense.

Last week the Giants suffered a demoralizing loss at the hands of Michael Vick and the Eagles.  This week they will have trouble against one of the best and most explosive offenses the NFC has to offer this week against the Packers.  Eli Manning has had a lot of issues with turnovers this season and his ability to minimize them in this game will be the deciding factor.  The Giants success lies in the hands of their running game, with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs sharing the load.  They were not able to close-out the win last week and I expect the turnover problems to persist after the emotionally unsettling loss last week.  Because of that, I believe the Giants will lose this game, but it will be a close and well fought game!

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Chargers at Colts

There are very few teams that have had regular success against Peyton Manning and the Colts… Philip Rivers and the Chargers are one of them.  Rivers finally has his full compliment of receivers for the first time all season, as pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson is finally back in action on Sunday night.  On the other side of the ball, the Colts are still banged up… RBs Mike Hart and Joseph Addai are unlikely to make a reappearance in this game and Donald Brown will likely have to share the load with Javarris James.  It isn’t December just yet, so Rivers doesn’t have any streak to defend… but I still like him to squeak out a win on the road, in by far the most appealing game of the week.  Even though it is his first game back in action, VJax shows up just outside my top 20 at WR this week.  The game should be a high-scoring passing affair and there wont be any time available for him to get acclimated to the speed of the game.  Mike Tolbert is another player who looks poised to have a strong performance as he faces a weak rush defense who has allowed a fair few big-games to guys like Ryan Torain and Arian Foster.  Given how stout the Chargers defense has been this season, I would look to someone other than Donald Brown this week.  He doesn’t seem to have a nose for the end zone and with only mediocre yardage in the other games that he was the lead-back… I see no reason to anticipate a breakout performance.  No need to downgrade anyone in the passing game with Manning at QB however.

Eagles at Bears

Two playoff contenders meet on Sunday in the windy city.  The Bears have been finding a way to win ball games, regardless of questionable QB play and a receiving corp that lacks a big, physical guy that can out jump opponents and come down with the ball in the red zone.  The Eagles on the other hand have had near-perfect QB play when Michael Vick has been healthy.  Vick has yet to throw an INT all season and with his speed and maneuverability he appears to be immune to the standard pass rush that most teams utilize.  One of the biggest reasons for the Bears’ winning record is their ability to generate pressure on the QB while only rushing four people.  That isn’t enough to stop Vick and I like the Eagles to win this game convincingly. I did downgrade McCoy in my rankings as he will have some trouble finding running lanes against this defense.  A lot of analysts are scared about the production of DeSean Jackson but as someone that owned him last season, I can tell you that bad weeks happen with this guy.  Most weeks he is able to get open deep and make a big play (at least once).  With this explosive potential it is just too risky to bench Jackson!  Maclin on the other hand, is the goto receiver for Vick and he is a must-start every week… at least until Vick’s play deteriorates… if it does.  Look for the Eagles to win this game by capitalizing on Cutler’s turnovers and by Vick scrambling to allow the big-play to develop down the field.

Packers at Falcons

These are the two teams that I like to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.  The Packers have faced a ton of injuries and their offense is better and more balanced because of it.  Ok… so they would be more balanced if they never lost Grant.  Either way, the Packers are finally getting healthy again on the defensive side of the ball… and as long as Clay Matthews is leading that defense, the Packers have a chance. Look for the Packers to win this match in the dome, which could be a shootout.  Most players involved in this game are either studs, or not fantasy-relevant… so start Rodgers, Jennings, White and Turner! If they aren’t listed there, then they aren’t worth a start in a standard league. Sorry to cut this one short, but it is time for me to get to my family and enjoy the holiday!

Happy Thanksgiving to you all, enjoy the family, turkey and as always… FOOTBALL!!

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Giants at Eagles

After a record-breaking performance last week on Monday night the Eagles host the team that, prior to last week, everyone thought was the best team in the NFC.  The Giants are a very inconsistent team over the past few years and must be frustrating to watch for their fans.  The success of this team will depend on what team shows up in the playoffs… if it is the Giants from weeks 4 through 9, then the NFC is in trouble.  With a great pass rush and a very balanced offense, the Giants we have seen most of this season are able to compete against anyone in the league.  On the other hand, if the Giants from last week show up in December with their stupid penalties, turnovers and a defense that loves to allow big plays… then they are in some serious trouble and won’t make it past the wild-card round.  This week the Giants have a lot to prove against the hottest team in the league, with the most dynamic play maker in the NFL this season… Michael Vick.

Eli and the G-men will be hard-pressed to win this game on the road against a QB that has yet to turn the ball over the entire season and appears to be immune to the blitzing schemes that are run in this league.  If you have Michael Vick then you probably didn’t have an elite QB when you picked him up and will be starting him every week now, but a word of warning to those of you who own him AND Brees, Rodgers, Manning, or Rivers… Please start the guy that has been producing at a high level for a least 2 years now and NOT the one coming off of ONE epic game.  You should make sure to start your Eagles receivers until there is a drop in Vick’s performance.  LeSean McCoy has been a very solid performer this year, but his value is lowered against the Giants stout defense.  As for the Giants, you’re still starting your players on this team… but lower expectations and hope that they stabilize in this game or it will be time to be concerned.

Colts at Patriots

The defending AFC champions have had their ups and downs this season, but the Colts finally appear to be getting healthier with Collie coming back soon as well as Joseph Addai and Mike Hart due back by next week. The Patriots on the other hand have been among the strongest teams in the NFL, but after an embarrassing loss to the Browns two weeks ago there appeared to be a reason to doubt the greatness of Brady and Belichick.  They did however bounce back very strong and beat the league’s top defense and put all concerns to rest for the time being by playing their best defensive game of the year.  The nice thing about this match-up is that neither team has a defense that scares you and we can expect all of our fantasy performers to live up to expectations.  The two biggest sleepers in this game for me are the Patriots’ running backs, who have a nice match-up against the Colts who have allowed some pretty huge rushing performances this season.  As for who will win this game… I do everything in my power to NOT bet against Peyton Manning so I take the Colts in a tough road win that could join the long list of games that have been decided in overtime this season.

Raiders at Steelers

As surprising as it is, the Raiders sit on top of their division in the month of November!  They face the Steelers who are also tied for the best record in their division as well and while they did lose to the Raiders last season… they are heavy favorites to get another victory at home.  The Raiders have ridden consistent QB play (from two different guys) and a phenomenal rushing attack to their current record, but face a team that has managed to hold every rusher they have faced to under 75 yards.  Rashard Mendenhall’s fantasy value relies pretty heavily on this game as Mewelde Moore stole quite a few of his carries in last weeks loss to the Patriots.  You still need to start him, but if Moore gets more than 10 carries this week, then Rashard wont be a top 10 back anymore.  Mike Wallace proved last week that he is a dynamic player who is able to manage the double team as the team’s number one receiver if Ward needs to miss this game.

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1.	Jets	@ CLE
2.	Eagles	@ WAS
3.	Steelers	Vs. NE
4.	Giants	Vs. DAL
5.	Vikings	@ CHI
6.	Bears	Vs. MIN
7.	Seahawks	@ ARI
8.	Colts	Vs. CIN
9.	Buccaneers	Vs. CAR
10.	Titans	@ MIA
11.	49ers	Vs. STL
12.	Cardinals	Vs. SEA
13.	Dolphins	Vs. TEN
14.	Ravens	@ ATL
15.	Patriots	@ PIT
16.	Texans	@ JAC
17.	Chiefs	@ DEN
18.	Falcons	Vs. BAL
19.	Bills	Vs. DET
20.	Lions	@ BUF
21.	Rams	@ SF
22.	Cowboys	@ NYG
23.	Redskins	Vs. PHI
24.	Panthers	@ TB
25.	Browns	Vs. NYJ

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Colts at Eagles The main storyline leading up to this game is the return of Michael Vick against one of the softest rush defenses in the NFL.  The Colts also have Mathis and Freeney rushing the QB which will grant Vick the ability to break containment and run more than he usually would.  DeSean Jackson looks to be on the fast track to return in time for this game as well and with his full array of weapons at his disposal, Vick should have no trouble producing as a top 10 QB for fantasy owners.  Look for another big day from LeSean McCoy who has made the most of his limited number of carries and should continue to do so.  I like the Eagles to win this game on the legs of Vick, but it will be close and the thing that really pushes them over the edge is being the home team.  Peyton Manning and his offensive weapons should perform fine against a decent Eagles secondary, but given all the injuries at running back, their offense will be very one-dimensional and I would stay FAR away from all of the Colts RBs this week.

Chargers at Texans There are two desperate teams in this game, only the Texans don’t know they are desperate yet!  I know you might be thinking I’m crazy right about now…but bare with me while I go off on a tangent.  Randy Moss to the Titans (even if he is a statistical non-factor) clinches the division for Tennessee.  He will keep the 8th man out of the box to defend Chris Johnson and ensure that whichever side of the field that Moss lines up on, the safety will help defend over-the-top.  Also, the Titans have two games left to play against both the Texans and the Colts… so the division is theirs to lose.  With VY playing at an elite level and the best RB in the NFL they should have a phenomenal 2nd half of the season. Ok, now back to THIS game… It is really a shame that all of the Chargers’ top receivers are inactive or injured for this game considering the phenomenal match-up.  After last week’s disappointing performance for Patrick Crayton there are no receivers that I trust to start this week unless Floyd or Naanee returns.  Also, statistically speaking, the Chargers are the best defense in football so downgrade Schaub and Foster a bit.  I like the Texans to capitalize on the Chargers’ HORRENDOUS special teams play and win a tough home game to essentially knock the Chargers out of the playoffs in week 9!

Dolphins at Ravens Despite being in third place in the AFC East, the Dolphins are only two games behind the Patriots for the lead in the division.  With how competitive the Patriots ALWAYS are, this is far from a small lead and the Dolphins will need to start the 2nd half of their season with a win against the 5-2 Ravens.  Given that they seem to be straying away from a run-first offense, I don’t see them being successful.  Brandon Marshall will remain a top 10 WR, but lower expectations this week as the Ravens are coming off the Bye and have Ed Reed back in the secondary.  The Dolphins defense is underrated, but the balance of the Ravens offense should allow for decent success running and passing.  Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin remain must-starts this week but with the scheduled return of Dante Stallworth, stay away from any receivers other than Boldin.  Look for the Ravens defense to clinch a close game as well as force a couple turnovers from Chad Henne.

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Texans at Colts

The Texans have never made the playoffs, the main reason for this is being in the same division as the Colts who have won the AFC South 6 of the past 8 seasons.  In the other two season Jeff Fisher and the Titans took the division title and the Colts earned a wild card spot.  With the competition being so tight in the division there has never been room for the Texans in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy and if they can’t make it this year Coach Kubiak will likely lose his job.  The Colts lost their season opener on the road in Houston this year buy allowing 231 yards to Arian Foster in his breakout performance.  The Colts defense has been their Achilles heel this season as they have struggled to rebound from last year’s Super Bowl defeat.  The Texans have plateaued since then with two home losses to NFC East opponents, but are still very likely to make the playoffs if they can continue their success within the division.  I like the Colts to win a VERY close and high-scoring home game this week.  This should be a GREAT game for fantasy owners of players from both teams as each defense is struggling in some way.  The Colts have been unable to stop anyone from running the ball as much as they please and the Texans have the worst pass defense in the NFL.  Austin Collie’s injury comes at the perfect time for Pierre Garcon and his owners.  I expect big things from Garcon the rest of the season, starting with a great game this week to regain his #2 spot on the depth chart.

Packers at Jets

The Packers’ division is up for grabs.  Everyone in it is struggling in one way or another and for the Packers the issue is injuries.  With Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley highlight the list of players that are out for the rest of the season, both the offense and defense are in trouble.  The Jets on the other hand are on a hot streak right now and an ailing Packers team is not likely to be able to stop them.  If they hope to keep any Super Bowl aspirations alive, they will need to start proving themselves with this game.   Donald Driver is listed as questionable at the moment and James Jones will be the biggest beneficiary to any playing time he misses.  If history is any indication, Cromartie will be covering Jennings in this game and he just may be able to break out for a big play or two.  With the banged up Packers defense as opponents I like LT and Santonio Holmes to be solid performers and lead their team to a win this week and maintain their top spot in the AFC East.

Steelers at Saints

The defending Super Bowl champions should be in full panic mode.  With injuries stacked up at the running back position, they can’t get Reggie Bush back too soon… But my guess is not this week.  The Steelers are, in my opinion, the best team in the NFL this year and if the Saints want to get the win they need to do what Sean Peyton has been talking about for a few weeks now… regain their killer instinct on offense.  The Steelers defense led the team to a 3-1 record in the absence of their starting QB… but now that he is back they are a truly devastating opponent to face when your team is playing well.  Coming off of a loss to the Browns last week, Brees and the Saints are desperate to get back to their winning ways.  They will fall short in a tough home loss this week, stay away from any Saints players wherever possible and lean on your Steelers players who should do just fine.

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Vikings at Jets

The Headline trade made yesterday morning to send Randy Moss back to the Vikings as they make their last ditch effort to regain their offensive firepower they had last season.  With Favre only in town for one year and the passing offense being pretty bad, Randy Moss is sure to provide a spark.  Every time Moss has changed teams he has used the fresh start to its maximum potential.  Sidney Rice will be returning from injury and the Vikings will likely have the best receiving corp in the NFL.  For now, they have to face the best defense in the league and Moss has to lineup against his ex-division rival Darelle Revis.  Expect this to be a low scoring game given the caliber of defense on each team.  Players like Moss, Keller and Peterson have to be started anyways, but if you have viable options instead of LT, Favre, Holmes and Greene you should use them.  I like the home team to squeak out a win with a healthy Revis shutting down Moss and the Vikings looking like they did before the bye for just one more game.

Chiefs at Colts

The Colts are pissed, they must be sick of hearing them mentioned along with the phrase “Super Bowl Hangover” and after losing to the third longest field goal in NFL history you can expect them to try and put on a show.  The Chiefs are the last undefeated team left in the league after their early bye week.  Even with the extra time to prepare, the challenge is the Colts at home and I don’t see them managing an upset.  The abysmal Colts run defense will allow Jamaal Charles and, to a lesser extent, Thomas Jones to have plenty of value to their fantasy owners in a losing effort.  Despite the Chiefs success thus far, Matt Cassell is not a quality QB and they will not be able to hold the division lead for too long.  Pierre Garcon participated fully in practice on Wednesday and with him back in the lineup Austin Collie will need to have a big day in order to keep the attention of Peyton Manning and hopefully the number 2 spot on the depth chart.

Titans at Cowboys

Both of these teams are at the bottom of competitive divisions.  The Cowboys are part of a wide-opening competition where every win is crucial and the Titans have to compete with the Colts and the newly-dominant Texans. Whichever team loses this game will probably go into crisis-mode and do something in an effort to shake things up.  Last season a mid-season shake up at QB led to a huge win streak to come back from an 0-6 start to be a part of the playoff hunt at the end of the season for Vince Young and the Titans.  Both teams are playoff contenders and this just may be the best game of the week.  I like the Cowboys to win a high-scoring game given their home field advantage as well as the match up of Miles Austin against the Titans secondary.  The Titans have allowed two straight 300 yard passers and Romo will also have a great game.  Don’t take a chance on a Cowboys RB or Titans WR unless you have no other choice, but Chris Johnson and Vince Young should do just fine if you are counting on them.

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Week 2 is upon us and it is pretty light on the exciting match-ups in my opinion.  There is a lot of appeal on the surface of the Manning Bowl Sunday night, but more on that later.

Patriots at Jets

This is going to be one hell of a game.  It would be one hell of a surprise to have a team of the caliber of the Jets start 0-2, but their offense will need to show some drastic improvement to keep up with the high-powered Patriots offense.  Luckily for Sanchez and the Jets, the Patriots defense is terrible and they should be able to find the end zone with some decent regularity.  The battle everyone will be watching could well be what decides the game, Moss vs Revis.  History says that Randy will get shut down, but a guy of his talent cannot be benched because it takes only one play for him to have a good day.  Welker will be used much like the Ravens used their wide outs vs the Jets, to attack the other corner backs in order to move the ball down the field.  Look for Welker to have a huge day and Moss to… well… not.

Giants at Colts

The Manning Bowl certainly has a great storyline… brothers that only meet in the regular season once every 4 years. But they will never be on the field at the same time and really the Colts are a much better team than the Giants so I do not think it will be all that close of a game.  I know they lost to the Texans, but there is something to the Super Bowl hangover effect and the Colts have never started the season playing their best football.  Because of this I expect to see a much better Colts team this week.  I do have a big sleeper coming out of this game in Ahmad Bradshaw.  We all saw what Foster did the Colts with his speed and elusiveness last week, but what you may not realize is that Ahmad Bradshaw is shorter, faster and quicker than Foster.  I am in no way predicting similar statistics, but I do foresee a big performance in prime-time.  My best advice… don’t bet against Peyton Manning, it doesn’t work out too often.

Ravens at Bengals

This very well might end up the most entertaining game of the week to football purists, as two stout defenses with a lot of play makers on offense square off in a heated divisional game.  Last year the Bengals won every divisional match-up they had, but as Carson Palmer gets older the passing game gets less and less dynamic.  In the ’09 season it was common-place to see Cedric Benson have 30 carries a game which is how they will need to beat the Ravens… on the ground.  This is not typically a winning strategy against this team, however typically the Ravens have not had so many offensive weapons that you were concerned with keeping them off the field.  I expect Ray Rice and the Ravens to win this physical slug-fest and advance to 2-0 on the season.  In this match up I think the stars of this game will be the Running Backs, Cedric Benson and Ray Rice.  Also, Boldin was able to be productive against the Jets and I see no reason why that should not continue.  I don’t anticipate a HUGE game, but 100 yards receiving sounds right.

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