Vikings at Saints

There are no shortage of big games to kick off the 2010 NFL season and none are bigger than the Thursday night kickoff game.  The much-anticipated rematch of the NFC Championship game is sure to be one hell of a show with two high-powered offenses squaring off against opportunistic defenses.  To me this match up boils down to how much pressure the Vikings can get on Drew Brees with just the front four.  Last season the Vikings led the NFL with 48 sacks and they are facing the offensive line that had the fewest sacks allowed.  If the Vikings can get Brees uncomfortable in the pocket and leave seven people in coverage they should be able to control the ball with AP and get a few big plays on the Saints suspect secondary.  Brett Favre has significantly fewer weapons at his disposal this year, however if the Saints can limit the effectiveness of the ground game or force a few turnovers they should win this prime time slug-fest.  Pierre Thomas owners should look to their bench for an adequate replacement, but don’t look too far because with the release of Ladell Betts and only Reggie Bush to contend with Thomas should have a decent game… nothing too big is really possible facing last years best run defense and Bush getting the majority of the passes.  Look for big games from Marques Colston and Percy Harvin as each secondary has its issues defending against the deep ball.

Ravens at Jets

There is no denying how much Darelle Revis means to the Jets as they try to improve upon last year’s loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship game.  New York is missing its best vertical threat in Santonio Holmes and will need to rely on its ground game to win what is bound to be a fierce, defensive,  field position battle.  If Sanchez can keep from throwing interceptions to the Ravens defensive backfield that will be lacking ball-hawk Ed Reed, then the Jets should be able to win this in a close battle.  Anquan Boldin makes his debut in a Ravens uniform this week, but he is stuck on Revis Island and should not have a productive week compared to how he will do down the stretch.  I think Shonn Greene and Ray Rice owners should lower expectations for this week given the caliber of defense on the other side of the ball, but you are likely still going to be starting them anyways so no real change made there.

Bengals at Patriots

This match-up does not have quite the same appeal as the Vikings Saints offensive showdown, but for old school hard nosed football fans this could be the most exciting game of the week.  The Bengals swept their division by having a punishing run game and a stout, opportunistic defense.  The Patriots are a nightmare on third down and are never out of a game.  I think we will see a heavy dose of Cedric Benson on Sunday in an effort to keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field.  I have concerns about Wes Welker mentally having enough confidence in his knee to make the kinds of cuts that he used to.  He will be fine overall on the season  but is not likely to be quite as effective as he has been in recent years.  Still feel free to use him in your flex and WR2 in PPR leagues.  Ochocinco is still the only receiver on the Bengals worth starting this week, but big plays are certainly a possibility from TO, though they will be unpredictable and inconsistent.

Colts at Texans

The Texans are a better team than most people realize and starting the season at home against the Colts is their best chance at beating them in the regular season.  The Texans are 1-15 in franchise history against this team and the best way to convince these guys they can win the division is to beat the annual champions of it.  The Texans will be hoping to get Arian Foster the ball upwards of 20 times and Steve Slaton around 10 times by the end of the game.  If they can use their run game to supplement their explosive passing offense they should be able to remain competitive.  The Colts can’t reliably cover all the receiving threats that Matt Schaub has at his disposal this year and Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones are exceedingly difficult to cover inside the red zone.  In order to win the Texans will need to force turnovers and find a way to pressure Manning without Brian Cushing, who is serving a suspension for violating the substance abuse policy.  The Colts are not a strong preseason team, and if they can’t get off to a fast start could find themselves on the ropes.  I think the Texans and Matt Schaub will play a solid game, but I never bet against Peyton Manning.  Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are both favorites of mine this week.

No Comments »

Well, coming down to these last two positions I decided to lump them together into one post, for one simple reason: You should not be drafting these positions until the very late rounds.  As for Kickers… do not bother taking one until round 15, if at all.  That is correct, it is acceptable to not draft a kicker and just pick one up right before the first game starts.  As for Defenses, in recent history the consensus number 1 fantasy defense has finished as the best fantasy defense only once.  This was the Chicago Bears very early in the millennium.  Injuries are far too difficult to predict when selecting ENTIRE DEFENSES and makes reaching to take one on draft day way too risky.  Steelers owners from last year can attest to the fact that one injury can turn your round 8 draft pick into a complete bust.  Last year the 49ers were typically not even drafted and yet they were the highest scoring.

Defenses

This year, we should see a break in the trend I discussed above because with Darrelle Revis on the field the Jets are an unbelievably dominant defense.  I do not expect much production from the special teams unit for our purposes, but Gang Green’s defense is that good (when healthy).  Even with that said you still need to see the Jets fall to around the 9th round to take the risk on grabbing them.  My FAVORITE defense to draft this year is San Diego, their schedule through week 6 is as follows: @ KC, vs. JAC, @ SEA, vs. ARI, @ OAK and @ STL.  None of these teams are going to have stellar offenses and the Chargers have a solid defense.  The reason this pick is so valuable is because you have a top 10 defense through the first 6 weeks, then since you waited till round 14 to draft these guys you have no problem dropping them to pick up whatever defense is playing against a terrible offense.  Check my full rankings here, but wait for a defense to fall to the very late rounds before you bother to jump on one just because your other positions are filled.

Kickers

Sigh, listen guys, I know I rank Nate Kaeding as my number one kicker, but that is a gut instinct.  Philip Rivers is a field general that does not need an elite receiver to put up big numbers and score points.  However there will be times that drives will falter due to dropped passes, etc. and Kaeding will have to kick a FG instead of an XP.  Regardless of anything you may read Kickers are what the last round is for.  Wait till then and take the best guy left on my rankings!

Sleepers

Steelers, Bengals, Chargers and Colts.

Busts

Giants, Patriots and Bears.

No Comments »

Year in and year out the Colts make the playoffs and following what should have been a perfect season I expect no different.  I can’t quite make heads or tails out of the number two receiver position quite yet, however whether it is Anthony Gonzalez or Pierre Garcon they will have a significant impact this season.  The biggest area of concern for this team is I guess on defense, but they have great speed and are in the top half of the league as it is.  We can only wait to see if they what they do if they get a second chance for a perfect season this time around.

Top Fantasy Players

Peyton Manning – If there was anybody on the planet that I would want to QB my NFL franchise it would be this guy.  Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers do a bit better statistically, but as you know Manning is no slouch.

Joseph Addai – I was a big supporter of Donald Brown going into last year… I thought Addai was finished and that the young guy was going to get the majority of the carries by the end of the season.  Boy was I wrong, Addai will be a great RB2 option next year and hopefully retains the consistency he had last year.

Reggie Wayne – With a healthy Anthony Gonzalez to compliment Garcon and Collie it will be tough to pay too much attention to Wayne, so he should continue to be a dominant force at WR.  I rank him in the top3, which may be a bit high… but Moss has to start losing a step sooner or later and Fitzgerald has a risky QB situation. There is less risk with Wayne.

No Comments »

The AFC South has fast become one of the best in the league, but I would not expect much different this coming season. So, I hope no one falls over out of shock should the Indianapolis Colts win this division.  The Texans and the Titans are playoff caliber teams as well and personally I can’t wait to see the fight for the AFC’s two wild card spots… it should be entertaining to say the least.

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans

No Comments »

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals – This match-up premiers two of the toughest run defenses in the league.  The Vikings have a ridiculously large and powerful defensive line that is adept and both run stopping and pass rushing.  The Bengals are more of a group of unknowns than Jared Allen and the Williams’ in the middle for the Vikes, but they rank 2nd in the league vs the run and 4th in the league in overall defense.  We may not have expected them to be this good, but they are well coached and playing as a cohesive unit, something most defenses no longer due (Baltimore!).  Two premiere RBs face two premiere run defenses so how do us analysts rank these guys?  Well its sure tough but there is a reason you drafted Peterson first overall and that was to play him!  Peterson is still a top10 back despite the match-up problems and has to be started.  Benson is also a top 10 back this season but he falls a little farther past 15 but above 20.  You are likely still playing him, however if you were lucky enough to draft Ray Rice and Ricky Williams you could very well have better options.  As far as passing goes, Favre looks to be falling out of my top 10 at QB this week and not because of his age.  I think the Vikings match-up really well here and I think that AP will get the best of this Bengal D that hasn’t faced too many elite backs so far this season.  If the Vikings do not game plan to beat these guys in the running game and succeed I fear for how deep into the playoffs they can really go.  The Vikes secondary can be thrown on, so I also think that if the Bengals are going to win it has to be in a shootout through the air.  This wont be easy as Palmer hasn’t been playing like his old self this season (though quite good), he is merely managing the game they hope to win by running the ball over 30 times with Benson.

San Diego Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys seemed to have solved their offensive woes as they ad a good outing last week in a tough divisional loss to the Giants.  The Cowboys have a tough schedule and the playoffs are a must if people like Wade Phillips and Tony Romo if they hope to be employed next year.  Unluckily for them they are facing a red hot Chargers team that needs to maintain their winning ways now that Denver is out of its losing streak.  I do not think that either defense is so good that there are any offensive players devalued by their match-up.  On the contrary this should be a decently high scoring affair and the likes of Rivers, Austin, and Jackson see a slight increase in their stock this week.

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts - This is the best chance there is left in the regular season for the Colts to add a notch to the loss column; Orton has come back from his injury pretty well, Marshall is making plays for him in the passing game, and Moreno and Buckhalter are both good backs that are making the most of their chances.  The Broncos are a complete football team that is well coached, but the Colts have Manning and that has been the only coach to make much of a difference.  The players I like in the game are the usual players for each team, Manning, Wayne, Moreno and Marshall.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants – I love when two teams from this division play, they are always fun to watch so if you get the chance I recommend it.  Brian Westbrook is potentially going to be playing in this game, and this devalues LeSean McCoy, and couple that with his limited use last week, and his future gets murky.  He is still a great flex play this week or a RB2 if you are hurting from injuries at the moment.  DeSean Jackson looks to be returning as well this week, and should do just fine in the same role you were using him before.  Manningham has been a huge flop as of late so you aren’t using him, but Smith has been seeing a bump in productivity as he has seen at least 7 points in each of the last four weeks.  Smith is coming fresh off a 110 yard performance last week and should be a solid WR2 spot this week as we should see a fair share of scoring.

No Comments »

Titans @ Colts – I am so excited to sit down and watch this game Sunday,  it is hard to think that we can even be talking about this match up when one team is 11-0 and the other started 0-5, but how can we not?! We are about to have sooooo many questions answered about Vince Young and his red hot Titans.  I cannot expect the Titans to win it, but what if they do!? We would not be able to argue that they weren’t SUPER BOWL contenders let alone playoff bound.  The Colts have not displayed the Dominance that the Saints have but they are winning every game on the fortitude and genius of Manning.  But what about the Fantasy Relevance of the players?  Wayne and Manning are auto starts, and Addai has been so productive you probably don’t have a better option for your RB2 spot so no worries there.  Garcon is a flex play or a WR3 if your league starts that many, and he should get more credit for how well he does in that offense.  On the other side of the ball Young is not really a good fantasy option here unless it’s a 2 QB league or you’re counting on someone who ends up inactive, but I think Kenny Britt is the most relevant Titan this week.  He is an interesting flex play here as if the Titans win Britt will find the end zone.  No question CJ is the home run hitter, but you cannot stay in a ball game with Peyton Manning unless you get big plays from your passing game.

Eagles @ Falcons – Both teams are suffering some key injuries that really rob us of an even better match-up, however both teams are also fighting to make the Playoffs and the Falcons realistically can’t lose with back-up QB Redman taking the snaps and a week after rushing Michael Turner back too fast and causing him to re-injure his ankle.  The Eagles are missing starting RB Westbrook and start WR Jackson both with concussions.  White had decent production with Redman last weekend so I do not downgrade him too much, just some for the match-up.  The win here for the Eagles will give them the inside track to the Wild Card round and keep them in the hunt for the division.  I am very unsure about the Falcons RB situation this week, Snelling got minimal work and Norwood looked pretty good, so I am expecting a time share between the two making it a coin flip for who is the better start.  Eagles WRs Avant and Maclin both see big upside as they are facing a very soft Falcons secondary that ranks among the worst in the NFL.  Both WRs were active in the passing game even with Jackson in the lineup so McNabb will have little issues getting used to them.  McCoy has done very well as a fill in for Westbrook and remains a solid RB2 start till Westbrook comes back and takes some snaps away from him.

Cowboys @ Giants – Alright readers it’s December so we all know what that means!  Snow falling on Sundays, Fantasy Football playoffs are here, Egg Nog, and absurd amounts of terrible QB play in Dallas.  Romo is facing a division rival in the month of December so I don’t much like the Cowboy’s chances here, but for the sake of Fantasy Football I remind you all once again to have a very short memory!  All we care about is the last three weeks really, and while that’s not that good for Romo I think it levels out your expectations and gives him a chance to meet them.  Miles Austin is slated to have a big game and I agree, the only other player with upside around that city right now is Felix Jones as they are finally using him as the home run hitter he ought to have been all season.  Bottom line is that we get to watch the Cowboys make the playoffs this month or we get to watch the melt down and find a new head coach and starting QB in the off season, great entertainment either way.  As for the Giants, Eli wasn’t anyone’s starting QB at this point in the season anyways but with his foot injury we need to downgrade the wide outs a little bit.  Jacobs has been a huge disappointment so far and productivity from him would help this team down the stretch tremendously.  Unfortunately Jacobs has shown none of the talent he did last season and I have no reason to expect anything to improve.

Vikings @ Cardinals – Hard not to get excited about two playoff bound teams meeting at the end of the season, it’s a preview of coming attractions!  Warner has come back to limited participation in practice Wednesday but is still splitting the snaps with Leinart in case he cannot go.  Options in Warner’s place if he doesn’t go are Alex Smith and Vince Young.  Tough match-up for the Duo of Cardinals RBs this week, you should find a better option.  Peterson had an off game and had pretty bad production until the Vikes were putting the game on ice late with the running game.  Favre remains a trusted start this week as I do not think the Cards can with stand the balanced attack the Viking offense has this season.  I think Minnesota is stronger in all three phases of the game and should win impressively.

No Comments »