Studs

Drew Brees, QB, NO – The Saints are still clicking on all cylinders and Drew Brees really put any concerns to rest that may have come from their narrow victory in Tennessee. Brees completed 32 of 40 passes for 412 yards and 5 scores in a dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings.  Brees has finished the year incredibly well and especially considering that he saved his best football for the playoffs. He has catapulted thousands of mediocre teams to the championship game with his past two performances.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – McCoy is most likely going to be #2 in my MVP race for the 2011 Fantasy Football season.  Aaron Rodgers is almost a lock and Drew Brees is simply out playing Rodgers in the playoffs as of right now but no one has had the consistency of McCoy outside of the QB position. Another 100 yard game and 3 TDs. Welcome to your Super Bowl.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – It is very possible that Calvin Johnson owners survived last week in the playoffs and were still in the hunt for a championship title but plenty, myself included, are not. Regardless, Oakland was not able to answer the duo of Megatron and Matthew Stafford who were in 2nd and 3rd place for total fantasy points in week 15. This duo will be a nightmare should the Lions right the ship and finish strong enough to make the post-season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, BUF – The Dolphins have had some considerable success stopping the run and that has been a big part of their recent turn-around. C.J. Spiller had a break out performance this week despite only 12 carries.  Spiller had 91 yards and a score on the ground and complimented this performance with another 9 catches, 76 yards and a score.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – White has been somewhat of a disappointment this season despite finishing strong with this week being his 5th straight game with double digit points and best game of the season this week.  10 catches for 135 yards and 2 TDs. Obviously you can’t expect too many games like this but I didn’t think it would take until week 15 for his first one!  Nice to see if his fantasy owners are still alive and White has been playing well for a few weeks and just may have given you a late push into the post season.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Brown averaged just over 10 yards per rush in the Colts’ first win of the season.  He totaled 161 yards and had an 80 yard TD run at the end to close out the game.  You weren’t starting him but anyone that can get the Colts a win is worth mentioning.

Duds

Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – Just 3 catches for 8 yards is a HUGE disappointment for a guy that went on a hot streak as soon as the best offensive weapon of the Vikings went down with injury.  Peterson came back and Harvin did absolutely nothing.  He was even targeted 7 times in the passing game and there is no excuse for his inability to get one fantasy point.  If you made it into the Super Bowl with Harvin on your team you need to seriously consider sending Harvin to the bench.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG – Your season is over Eli owners. Eli outscored just one QB that started this week so far and that was Blaine Gabbert.  Two different Titan QBs were either tied or better than Eli and you were better off playing T.J. Yates, Dan Orlovsky, Tavaris Jackson, Seneca Wallace or even Caleb Hanie.

Wes Welker, WR, NE – People don’t give Champ Bailey any credit but I will when I rank Stevie Johnson next week.  Bailey held Welker to 4 fantasy points and while you can survive a bad game from a WR or RB, the playoffs isn’t where you want these games from your studs.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN – He averaged 6 yards per carry but only had 10 touches. You need more than 6 points from your number one overall draft pick in the playoffs and more importantly to me, the Viking offense lost a spark when they got their best player back.  Toby Gerhart and Percy Harvin were both getting carries the past few weeks and Gerhart was getting better numbers than Peterson did this week and Harvin completely disappeared.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – All of the Packer receivers were targeted just 4 times in this game but Nelson was the guy that needed to step up and fill-in for Greg Jennings and he was not able to get it done against Brandon Flowers and the Chiefs.  Jermichael Finley stepped up big-time with 10 targets and the best yardage total but Donald Driver got the score.  At the end of the day, Rodgers had over 20 fantasy points and that isn’t really that bad, despite what his average on the season is.

No Comments »

Pick Ups

Roy Helu, RB, WAS – The inherent mess of the Shanahan running backs may have let Helu remain on free agency this long. He isn’t even owned in half of leagues and he is the one guy on the list at RB that has big-game potential.  Torain did not even touch the ball on Sunday and Helu had a pretty nice game in a win over Seattle. Shanahan might just decide to spit in the face of fantasy owners again and start Torain next week but if you are taking a chance on one of these guys, it should be Helu every single time.

Greg Little, WR, CLE – The Browns desperately need a play maker at receiver and with Little starting to emerge, at least a little, I expect them to let Colt McCoy sling the ball around some so that they can properly evaluate him for their future needs.  I believe in McCoy and expect Little to continue to perform better than a Browns receiver has since Braylon Edwards did with Derek Anderson at QB in 2007.  Little should be owned in all leagues and could make a decent flex play if the match up is right the rest of the way.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – If you are making a serious playoff push right now, Brown would probably not be any better than a bench-warmer for you. I would probably rather seek out a handcuff to your best running back instead unless your fighting tooth and nail to get into the playoffs at all.  If that is the case Brown might have another decent game next week against New England but considering how badly they are going to lose, his upside is limited as well. He is worthy of a roster spot in most leagues but as you can tell, he does not excite me.

Johnny Knox, WR, CHI – Despite how poorly Caleb Hanie played in this game, his ability to find Knox was undeniable. I’m not even ready to call Knox a solid flex-play yet but if Hanie keeps finding this speedy deep threat next week, then I will have to concede that Knox is worth starting again. I will already say that I would rather have Knox on my team than Bennett.

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Hillis is available in around 20% of leagues at the moment and this is probably a mistake.  He is a borderline top 25 back and now that he is healthy, he must be owned.  He hasn’t played like he did last season but I never expected him to either. Bottom line is he is going to see between 12 and 15 carries and should be the primary goal line back.  This guy is too good to just be sitting on free agency.

Dump List

Bernard Scott, RB, CIN – Anyone who thinks that Scott has more in him than being a mediocre handcuff just hasn’t been watching the Bengals play.  Benson is the more dynamic threat out of the back field and Scott is only used as a change of pace.

Steve Breaston, WR, KC – I could see holding him until Orton starts and you see how he manages this offense but I wouldn’t wait.  I don’t trust Breaston at the moment and with this offense being so one-dimensional, I don’t see that changing.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ – LT is still owned in over 40% of leagues and I don’t get it.  McKnight has run better than he has and neither has really seen the field very much.  Cut your loses with LT now and let him be someone else’s problem as you head into the playoffs!

Lance Ball, RB, DEN – With McGahee having gotten banged up a few times, Ball isn’t value-less. But he didn’t break-out at all when he had the chance and was merely a viable replacement. McGahee has bounce back quickly from his injuries this season and I would probably let Ball go if I had my eye on someone on waivers this week.

No Comments »

Love

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – You are right to be concerned about how Johnson will play with Leinart at QB. The only thing is that Jacksonville has a very tough time stopping elite receivers.  Leinart was at one time a starting QB in this league and he is used to having that elite receiver that you can just toss the ball up to.  I expect a very nice game from Johnson this week.

DeMarco Murray, RB, DAL – He had an off game last week and still managed double digit fantasy points.  Miami is on playing really well at the moment but Dallas is too.  As long as Romo doesn’t give the game away with interceptions, I think that Dallas wins this one with relative ease and Murray is the guy that closes it out in the end.

Cam Newton, QB, CAR – I usually have Cam at #2 in my rankings and he is there now.  I would have him at number one but I have seen Aaron Rodgers play this season and that would be insanity.  This match up for Newton is fantastic and I think he has an honest shot at being the week’s top scorer.  You probably don’t need any convincing to start him but I am expecting a huge game this week from the soon to be rookie of the year.

Jordy Nelson, WR, GB – Nelson has been great this season.  He is a big play guy that is able to make that big play with staggering consistency.  I am not ready to rank him above Jennings yet but the fact that I had to think about it is a credit to Nelson’s ability.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Brown has taken over as the lead back in this offense and while they have been inept this year, Carolina’s defense just may be worse. If your struggling to find a replacement for Fred Jackson, you can do worse than Brown this week.

Hate

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – I ranked Smith poorly this week and partially because I also ranked Jahvid Best. But even if Best does not play, I still would have a hard time starting Smith for this game.  The Lions are at home against the Packers and regardless of how well Detroit has been playing this season I think it would be a huge surprise if they were able to take down the Packers. I expect the Lions to be forced to go to the air early and often in an effort to keep up.  Smith is still a relatively decent flex play because of his ability to catch balls out of the backfield but don’t let that big game cause you to make a foolish decision this week.

Steve Johnson, WR, BUF – The downfall of the Bills has been especially rough on Johnson’s fantasy owners.  He is no longer to be considered a WR2 and is a flex play at best. You should look for another option, especially on Revis island this week.

Sam Bradford, QB, STL – Bradford has been bad this year for fantasy owners. He has an awesome match-up this week but don’t be tempted to use him.  The only guy involved in the Rams’ passing game that I trust is Brandon Lloyd.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Normally a running back going against Buffalo ends up on the other list.  But with how well Joe McKnight played after Greene went down last week, I am concerned that there is a time-share about to happen.  Greene is still my favorite to get the lion’s share of the work and remains a low-end RB2 in my ranks.

No Comments »

Question 1: Asked by Valeri

Should I start Tim Tebow or Ryan Fitzpatrick this week? Thanks.

Answer

I have to give the nod to Tebow.  Fitz has a fairly decent match up against the Cowboys secondary but with LT Demetrius Bell still looking like he will be sidelined again, I am concerned about Demarcus Ware severely limiting his ability to extend plays.  This game will become about Fred Jackson for the Bills.  If Jackson gets going, the pass rush should need to respect him enough that Fitz can make the big play.  Tebow on the other hand IS the running threat that slows the pass rush and McGahee doesn’t hurt.  Even if Tebow plays bad, he is almost a lock for double digit points because he will be giving you 5-6 in rushing yards alone.

Question 2: Asked my @MFarrell21

Benson vs Pitt or Donald Brown vs the Jags with Addai likely out?

Answer

It has to be Benson. Not many guys see 20-30 touches per game and Benson has fresh legs after the Bye and his one game suspension.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better as of late, but they are far from as lights-out against the run as they have been in recent years.  Start Benson with confidence this week but do not expect too much from him.  Be happy with 70 yards and hopefully he finds the end zone.

Question 3: Asked by Zach

Hey so what’s your take on Ryan Mathews? He did not get nearly as many carries as I expected him to last night, probably a result of his injury and the Chargers wanting to ease him back into play – as you stated in your love/hate list; but what do you think about going forward, after a 10 day stretch do you think he will start getting the bulk of carries again?  I have Starks on my bench and depending on how he plays this next game, I may consider playing him over Mathews week 11.

Answer

I think Mathews is doing fine. He only had 6 carries, but I am not really surprised that they split the carries evenly. Both backs were running well and if Tolbert can be productive, he will see touches.  Mathews was averaging 5.7 yards per carry last night and had it not gotten out of hand and San Diego would have continued to pound the rock.  My only issue with Mathews is health so if he is active and practicing all week, I think you have to start him. Especially over Starks who is on a by far pass-first team and sharing some touches with Ryan Grant.

No Comments »

As we head into the championship week for the vast majority of leagues, there are fewer players worth the risk of starting and this severely limits the list of potential pickups.  Upside is a largely useless consideration at this point, unless you are desperate (but if you are desperate, you’re probably no longer in the running for your league’s championship).

Pickups

Donald Brown, RB, IND - Before the season, I liked Brown quite a bit.  He looked to get a fair share of the work and was a bargain on draft day in the very late rounds.  The reason for him being expected to see a lot of work is the contract situation for the aging and injury-prone Joseph Addai.  This is the last year of his current contract and there would be little reason to sign him again if you have a guy worthy of the starting job already on your roster.  Since Brown was a round 1 draft pick, there were high hopes that he would have a breakout year but that was not the case.  He racked up 18 points this week when everyone had given up hope and now, if Addai misses another week, Brown will be a worthy start in your flex spot.

Jacoby Ford, WR, OAK - He is still very risky, but he is a game-changing talent that the Raiders try to get involved in a variety of ways.  He is a threat to run (71 yard TD run this week), catch a big pass, or return a kick for a TD whenever the ball is in his hands.  As long as Oakland looks to get him involved, he is a risky flex play in deep formats.  Even if you don’t plan to use him yourself, don’t leave him to your opponent who might get a big game from him.

Colt McCoy, QB, CLE – With Grossman and Tebow each VASTLY exceeding our expectations for how they would perform, why is it McCoy on my list of pickups? Well it came down to McCoy or Grossman for me, so if you can’t get Colt, then you know who you should target next.  McCoy has seen extended playing time in 6 games this season and in all but one of them, he put up double digit points… including a week 6 loss to the Steelers.  He does play against the Ravens next week (compared to Grossman vs. Jacksonville), but the Baltimore defense has not been lights-out like it has in the past and they currently are ranked 14 against the pass.  This makes him the guy with the least risk involved, if you have to get one of the newly-starting signal callers for your two-QB league to make your championship run.

Kevin Walter, WR, HOU - Next week the Texans play against the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos.  Champ Bailey might be getting old, but he is still among the best corner backs in the league and with some help from the safety position, he can take some of the better receivers out of the game.  Andre Johnson will not be shut-down but with all the attention that is sure to be paid to him, Walter will see a lot of man coverage and is likely to have a decent game.

Derrick Ward, RB, HOU - Arian Foster left this game early with a muscle spasm.  It is still not yet clear the extent of the injury, but a muscle spasm doesn’t sound severe.  If he is to be limited or miss any time, then Ward is savvy veteran worth a start in your flex position.

Josh Morgan, WR, SF – This is Morgan’s 2nd straight game where he has been the top-producing receiver as he catches 7 passes on 9 targets for 106 yards.  The 49er offense was struggling against the league’s top defense, but Alex Smith played decent and since they are still alive in the playoff race, you can count on them pulling out all the stops and playing for their entire season next week.  I would still rather start Crabtree, but Morgan has certainly earned some attention in deeper formats.

Dump List

Austin Collie, WR, IND - He suffered his third concussion on a hard hit in this game and after a great first half in this week’s game against Jacksonville, it really is a shame that he cannot stay healthy for very long. Blair White should be the slot receiver for the Colts the rest of the fantasy-season.

Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ – Even though the Jets got a huge win this week and produced against the most talented defense in the league, Greene has a tough outing next week against the Bears stout run defense. Given he will be splitting carries, he really just doesn’t have the chance to produce like you need in your fantasy super bowl.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS – Torain is the guy, enough said.  This would be a completely wasted roster spot, should you hold Williams.

Anquan Boldin, WR, BAL - I will like him next year, but Mason is the top guy in Baltimore this season and until he retires I do not think that will change.  If you own him, you need little prodding to at least leave this inconsistent threat on your bench.  I am also aware that in his last game against the Browns he had 3 TDs.  That was too long ago to think it will happen again.  Only drop him if there is someone worth playing, but you definitely shouldn’t start this guy.

Steve Smith, WR, CAR – Even in a win, when the offense looked as sharp as it ever has… he was barely able to produce.  He is still their best red zone passing target, but expect the running game to continue the heavy lifting.

Robert Meachem, WR, NO – This goes for Lance Moore as well, the Saints receivers (other than Colston) are too hit or miss for playoff consideration.  They have 0 points or 20 points, so with what looks like a 50% chance to get you a goose-egg, get these guys off your team or at least on the bench.

Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, MIN - He may as well be inactive for fantasy-owners… at least then we wouldn’t be tempted to start him.  Get yourself a new TE if you have made it this far with Shiancoe.

Jahvid Best, RB, DET - The only way you own this guy and are still in the playoffs is if you haven’t been using him!  He still has not had a double digit fantasy performance since week 2 and there is no reason to expect that to change against the Dolphins next week.

No Comments »

What a crazy week… With all the duds this week (more to come on them tomorrow) a LOT of people missed the playoffs and just as many people snuck their way in! If you are one of these fantasy-ninjas, then congrats and let’s take a look at how you can bolster your roster moving into the playoffs!

Pickups

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR - After last week’s game I was torn… Stewart looked like the more complete RB, he ran hard and hit holes quickly.  Goodson looked good too however, slightly less polished… but he contributed a lot in the passing game and looked to have the most fantasy value of the duo.  Not anymore! Stewart saw 21 carries to Goodson’s 3 and he also was able to rack up 91 yards. While both backs found the end zone in this game, the staggering difference in the number of carries make the decision on who to own a no-brainer.  I wouldn’t drop Goodson yet, especially in PPR formats, but I also wouldn’t trust him next week!

Tashard Choice, RB, DAL - Tashard Choice gave the Cowboys balance.  Felix Jones saw more touches, but he wasn’t able to find the end zone like Choice did.  We should expect this to continue and probably trend more towards Felix, as was the case this week.  One thing you should count on is Tashard Choice being the one to see the work at the goal line.  Choice is a flex play at best, but he has to be owned after a performance like this because if he follows it up with another good game, you will be able to count on him against Washington and Arizona in Weeks 16 and 17.

Donald Driver, WR, GB – I had my concerns about Driver being able to return to the same level of play he had demonstrated earlier in his career, but if you have seen his TD catch this week… then you wont have any more worries either.  If you didn’t see it, I will let the highlight reel provide all the evidence you will need to grab this guy off waivers… if he was dropped that is!

Anthony Dixon, RB, SF – There is a disclaimer that comes with this one: Brian Westbrook SHOULD be the guy!  Westbrook was quicker into the hole and looked to be a much more complete back on the carries that he received.  With that said, Singletary and the 49ers split carries evenly between Dixon and Westbrook.  Until we see that they will make a commitment to the injury-prone veteran, Dixon has to be owned too as he will see more of the goal line carries.

Earl Bennett, WR, CHI – We really can’t treat Bennett’s production as an anomaly any longer.  He is as close to a big and physical wide receiver as the Bears have, so he is likely to see the most red zone targets of any of the WRs on the Bears.  This week Bennett led the team in targets with 8 and hauled in 7 of them for 105 yards.  Assuming Driver was never let go in your league, Bennett is by far the best option available for pickup at WR this week.

Anthony Armstrong, WR, WAS – If you have to start a Redskins receiver, it looks like it should be Armstrong.  He was an unknown talent before the season and because of this we have been (correctly) suspicious about adding this guy to our fantasy teams.  Now however, the Redskins have lost hopes for a playoff run and are turning to their younger players so they can be developed for the future.  Since they are a bad team, the Skins will be down and throwing… so it seems like you should be able to count on their young, deep threat!

Roy Williams, WR, DAL – With Dez Bryant’s ankle broken and him being out for the season, Roy Williams will return to fantasy-relevance.  The whole reason he fell in value was due to the injury to Romo and Kitna not being good enough to keep THREE receivers valuable to their fantasy owners.  Since Williams is back to the 2nd spot on the depth chart, he is likely to be a worthy flex play for the fantasy playoffs.

James Starks, RB, GB – Who the hell saw this coming!? Starks saw by far the most carries of any Packer this weekend and performed well with them totaling 73 yards on 18 carries.  John Kuhn saw the 2nd most carries with just 6, but he maintained his role as the goal line back and was able to punch one in.  With Starks looking to take the lead carries and Kuhn sure to get the work at the goal line, Brandon Jackson may not have any value left outside of PPR leagues.  Wait a week to drop him, but I wouldn’t start Starks or Jackson until we see if this was just a one week thing, or a new trend.

Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE – TEs are a mess this season… now Heath Miller and Todd Heap join the list of injured players at this position.  Watson had 100 yards receiving with Jake Delhomme at QB this week.  Colt McCoy loved Watson before his injury and he has been a consistent producer for fantasy owners in deep leagues.  It’s time to call him up to be used in standard leagues with the injuries stacking up!

Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC - We are moving into the playoffs for fantasy owners and handcuffs are a must-have if your lucky enough to have one of the few studs left at RB.  The trend in the NFL is to split RB carries to ensure long careers out of their highly paid young prospects.  This is not beneficial to fantasy owners who have a late draft pick. However, what is worse is when your star goes down with an injury late in the season… just like Michael Turner did last year!  If you own Maurice Jones-Drew, Jennings is a must-add for your team to ensure that this aging star doesn’t go down and leave you SOL.

Dump List

Randy Moss, WR, TEN – In the playoffs, fantasy owners must rely on their trusted players to make it through each week.  Since one loss ends your season, you have to ask yourself if you can live with your decision through the entire off season should it go the wrong direction!  After an entire season of disappointments, Moss is not able to be trusted so you may as well get someone who actually has upside.

Mike Williams, WR, SEA - His injury isn’t likely to be season ending, but with it being his 2nd one in a row… he is likely to need a game or two to get used to the speed of a live game again.

Justin Forsett, RB, SEA – There are no really good match ups left on the Seahawks schedule and since Forsett was so far behind Lynch in production this week, there just isn’t enough time left in the fantasy season for Forsett to be a factor again.

Keiland Williams, RB, WAS – It was a short run… but Williams’ ride is over. Torain is about to come back from injury and James Davis appears to be the guy that Shanahan wants to see get the work.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD – See Randy Moss.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – There just doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel for Brown.  He hasn’t had a break out performance all year and Javarris James is the guy getting the goal line work with Addai being out.  The Colts are DYING for Addai to return and when he does, Brown will only be used when necessary.  Expect Addai to make it into the lineup for week 14, but even if he isn’t, don’t leave your season in the hands of Brown.

Blair White, WR, IND – Collie is expected to return from injury this week and that will kill White’s value.  You may want to hold him for a week to see if Collie can stay healthy, but definitely don’t start White when he is 4th on the depth chart.

1 Comment »

Love

Drew Brees, QB, NO - Madden curse be damned… Brees finally looked like the elite QB you drafted when they came off their week 10 bye and beat up on a weak opponent in the dome.  This week, the Saints play the rebounding Cowboys in Dallas and are heavy favorites.  The Cowboy secondary is young, inexperienced and while they have been playing well… we are talking about the Super Bowl champions.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN - With how much the Vikings offense has struggled lately and the new head coach being charged with the responsibility of trying to provide a stability to the team, it appears as if we can expect a heavy dose of the league’s best running back… Adrian Peterson.  More recently, Favre has suggested simplifying the play book to help the Vikings get back to fundamentals and playing sound, error-proof football.  All of these signs point to Peterson carrying the load for the rest of the season.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET - Many of the elite WRs from draft day have under-performed.  Megatron is not one of them.  The Patriots allow over 25 points per game to the WR position and Johnson has been a beast in the red zone this season.  He remains a must-start, regardless of the QB situation… especially against the young and inexperienced Patriots secondary.

Tom Brady, QB, NE – The Patriots’ signal caller is an elite fantasy QB, he doesn’t care who his receivers are and his owners shouldn’t care about bad match-ups when starting him.  After a big game against the Steelers two weeks ago, you can’t get caught with him out of your lineup against the Lions.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT - Even though Mendenhall has only managed to top 90 yards ONCE since the return of Big Ben, you start your running backs against the Bills.  Buffalo, despite their success recently, is 32nd against the run.

Mario Manningham, WR, NYG – With the news that both Smith and Nicks will be out this week and Nicks for longer than that… Manningham is about to have a HUGE second half of the season.  The Giants have fumbling issues and are going to need to give Brandon Jacobs more carries.  Since this is not a recipe for success in my book, the emphasis will be placed on the passing game for their week 12 match-up against the surging Jaguars.

Heath Miller, TE, PIT – Much like you start your running backs against the Bills, you start your tight ends against them as well. With all the injuries to top-end TEs this season, many fantasy owners have to turn to the waiver wire on a weekly basis to try and rotate out people with good matchups.  The Bills have allowed the most touch downs to opposing TEs (8) and playing the top guy that faces them each week is a pretty solid strategy.

Hate

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – He has been huge for fantasy owners that held him on their bench for the first half of the season and I like him down the stretch.  Not this week however!  The Steelers have not allowed a 75 yard rusher this season and I do not expect that to change against a team that lost 8 straight games to start the season.  Production in the passing game is his only chance at a decent game, but the blitzing scheme of the Steelers should beat the shaky o-line of the Bills.

Carson Palmer, QB, CIN - I feel like he has made this list a lot this year, but with the Jets as his opponent… he deserves to be here again.  A team that can’t hold a 21 point lead against the Bills is not likely to have a strong outing against an elite defense.  We don’t know which receiver will be on Revis island for this game, so stay away from ALL Bengals wherever possible this week.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Even though Ryan is typically a stud at home, the Packers defense is playing great lately. Clay Matthews is likely to be the defensive player of the year for the 2010 season and should limit the production of Ryan and the Falcons offense.  Lower expectations for everyone, but start your studs in Michael Turner and Roddy White.  Ryan is not a stud, so look elsewhere if you have a decent option to replace him.

Donald Brown, RB, IND – The Chargers come to town this week and have played some inspired defense so far this season.  Brown has yet to have a break out performance and the chances that we see that in this game is very slim.  Look elsewhere unless you are desperate.

1 Comment »

Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Active

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Active

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Active

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Inactive

Austin Collie, WR, IND – Active

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Active

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Active

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Inactive

Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS – Active

Tony Scheffler, TE, DET – Active

No Comments »

This year certainly looks to continue an unfortunate trend.  Year in and year out, the running back position was by far the most important for your fantasy team’s trip to the playoffs.  Their importance to us has not changed; but the reliability of the average running back to productive has gone way down.  When you look at the top of your draft boards you will almost always see the same 5 or 6 names going first and they are all running backs.  The problem is that since offenses are becoming pass-first and the popularity of splitting carries between two or three backs is still increasing, the consistency of the 7th through 15th ranked RB’s is lowered.  Ten years ago during the 2000 season there were 16 different RBs that got at least 275 carries, but last year only had 7. You can get my updated RB rankings here.

The Big Three

It seems like it always comes down to 3 guys that become the consensus elite three each year.  This year welcomes back Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew but the number one guy is new to the group, Chris Johnson.  There was an interesting article in ESPN the magazine that was written by Christopher Harris in support of Peterson as number one, but I don’t buy it.  2000 yards is special, I want that on my team.  Peterson should improve on his ’09 campaign given the Vikings WR issues and Favre just looking to stay healthy if the team struggles.  I am a little concerned about MJD STILL not participating in any football related drills, but I view this as only a slight setback.  If he was expected to miss time, we would know.  Anticipate a slow start but he will still be the same old guy once he is 100%.

The Other First Rounders -

Rounding out the guys that are likely to be drafted in the first round at this position are Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams.  I have been talking up Frank Gore to anyone that will listen for a little while now.  With the addition of the two lineman in the first round of this year’s draft, a stable QB and a very stout defense Gore is set to have a great year.  I think he has more things working in his favor that Ray Rice, unless you are in a PPR league… then Rice is probably at number 3.  Michael Turner seems to be being overlooked by most people, they still rank him around the same place I do, but I am positive you should draft this guy over anyone at QB or WR.  I think Turner will have a 1400 yard season.  Steven Jackson is the last guy I would take before Andre Johnson, he is a rare talent on a bad team.  Regardless of every obstacle put in front of him he continues to be productive statistically and if Bradford has any success it will benefit him greatly.  I have seen DeAngelo Williams fall to the second round, don’t let that happen if you can help it!  This guy is a special player and the only reason he isn’t ranked at the number 3 spot is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers know how to get the most from each of these backs, Williams is more talented and will see the most carries.  There are questions at QB and the Panthers will be trying to use their running game as a crutch to get to the playoffs.

Second Running Backs (RB2)

I’ll refer you to the rankings to see all the guys listed in the rest of the sections here, but you are looking at ranks 10 to 24.  Shonn Greene does appear to have some company in the backfield with LT, but Tomlinson is old and in order to be as effective as he can be he will be limited in the number of touches he gets.  This will allow Greene to stay rested and still receive a lot of work, the Jets love to run if you didn’t know.  Jamaal Charles is in an identical situation with Thomas Jones on a team with a worse defense.  This makes him slightly less valuable than Greene because he will see fewer touches.  Charles is a more explosive back, but I think Jones has a little more left in the tank and will vulture ALL of the goal line duties.  I was much higher on Beanie Wells before the preseason performance of Matt Leinart.  Wells is not experienced or developed enough to produce consistently in a bad offense.  He was much more of a raw talent than polished runner coming out of college and will need a bit more time before he can carry the Cardinals through the rough spots.  Ronnie Brown and Joseph Addai are coming off productive years, with Brown having been injured at the end of the season.  I have confidence in both guys going into the year, despite Ronnie’s track record. There should be a better vertical passing game to keep the 8th man out of the box this year and that should help keep the two Dolphin RBs healthy.  Lastly, Arian Foster totaled over 100 yards on the ground in week 3 of the preseason.  He is going to be the lead guy on a pretty damn good offense, that’s good enough for me.

Flex Players and The Best Backups

As far as the guys between 25 and 35 in my rankings are concerned, I have some major concerns that Felix Jones can stay healthy for 16 games, but while he is healthy he will be the lead back for the Cowboys and Marion Barber will take over that supplementary role that he was so successful with during his breakout season on ’06.  Ahmad Bradshaw will be the starting RB for the Giants this year and is among my favorite picks this year at the position.  He has always been explosive and make the most of his opportunities. Jacobs will probably see most the goal line duties but Bradshaw should great things with 20 rushing attempts per game.  Fred Jackson has fallen below his teammate CJ Spiller in most people’s rankings, but I view this as a mistake.  Matthew Berry at ESPN put an awesome stat in his Love/Hate column about how Chan Gailey uses RB’s.  Basically there is a clear lead guy and a clear supplementary back.  Spiller does not have the skill set for a clear lead role, but Fred Jackson does.  If the Redskins O-line can keep Clinton Portis healthy he will be a big surprise for owners this year.  He may have been in the league for a little while now, but we haven’t devalued a running back like this before the age of 30 in a while.

The Best of The Rest

Players ranked 36 and below on my rankings are either ideal for bye week fill-ins and in case of an injury. LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones are guys that are experienced but new to their team.  It is still unclear exactly how they will be used, but we can expect both to get the most goal line carries on their team and get enough work to be productive as a fill-in.  Donald Brown is a single injury away from a starting job on one of the elite offenses in the league.  I don’t expect the Colts to sign Addai to another contract after this year unless they absolutely need to.  They will be putting this guy on the field plenty this year to know how best to handle a potential Addai contract.  Tim Hightower has also fallen a bit too far in most people’s rankings, he is a talented guy and will see use in what will probably be a struggling offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Donald Brown, Tim Hightower

Busts

LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Laurence Maroney

Recap

Draft around 5 guys at this position, expect injuries and you can’t be screwed by them.  The talent pool is shallow this year, if you are lucky enough to get one of the top 6 or 7 picks DO NOT do anything crazy. rounds 3-4 are where all the WRs fly off the shelves so you can often find a bargain in the fourth as a back or two usually falls too far at this time.

No Comments »

Player Adds

Donald Brown (IND) – Addai should have the week mostly off… and the Bills against the run are pretty abysmal.

Lex Hilliard (MIA) – Ricky left and never came back with an injury so grab up Hilliard if he is the only guy!  Oh, and he had twenty points in week 16.

Darren Sproles (SD) – If he is out there in your league… grab him!  He won’t get very many goal line caries because those are where LT does the majority of his work.  With that said, the Chargers have their seed locked down so they aren’t going to have anything to play for this week that Sproles will see an increased workload and LT should likely be pulled early.

Sammy Morris (NE) - It’s a little bit of a stretch, but since many Maroney owners may be alive still (at least in a consolation after last week) Sammy Morris is likely the guy you’ll want next week.

Matt Moore (CAR) - Bye bye Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore is going to be the new guy in Carolina.   Unfortunately he won’t have Steve Smith to throw to in Week 17 as he broke his arm on a TD catch last week and will be place on IR.

Jerome Harrison (CLE) - Finally a streak of two weeks in a row where the same RB has the most yards! Harrison will do fine as a flex start or fill-in for Ricky Williams owners if no one bought in after week15!

Muhsin Muhammad (CAR) – With Smith out someone will be getting more looks… Should be Muhammad.

Dump List

Anyone your opponent wouldn’t play against you!  If your opponent needs RBs, drop all your backup WRs to take the best RBs off the board.  I forced my Super Bowl opponent to play Michael Bush in a ten team league this week as he was hurting from DeAngelo’s injury.

Please feel free to ask questions using Twitter, the form on the right, or my Yahoo! Q&A

I also want to invite you all to Play in the NFL.com Playoff Challenge against me!  You need to create an account before you this link will send you right to my league!

No Comments »