It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first.  The Eagles are my and most people’s favorites to win the NFC in 2011.  This is largely due to the ABSURD amount of talent added in free agency over the past week, which includes Ronnie Brown, Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC), Nnamdi Asomugha and Jason Babin.  Jenkins is a wall of a defensive tackle with a particular talent for getting his hands up into the passing lanes and batting down short passes (he holds the Green Bay Franchise record for this statistic in a single season by a D-lineman with 9 in the 2007 season). Rodgers-Cromartie is a very solid Cornerback that has been getting better each year since drafted 16^th overall in 2008.  He has made a name for himself by coming up with big plays in crucial situations, namely a 99 yard INT return for a touchdown against the Rams in his rookie season which secured the division title for the Cards. Jason Babin was also brought back to Philly this offseason through free agency off the heels of a 12.5 sack season in 2010. The least attractive addition to the roster for the Eagles is the most recent, Ronnie Brown.  Don’t get me wrong, Brown makes the team better and will probably handle short yardage and goal line touches.  But, with all the blockbuster players picked up on defense, its easy to barely acknowledge this one. Lastly, the biggest surprise acquisition for Andy Reid’s ball club was Nnamdi Asomugha.  Asomugha is in most people’s eyes the 2^nd best cornerback in the entire league.  With three cornerbacks that are talented enough to be the top guy on any team in the league and a formidable pass rush the Eagles defense is, on paper, the best in the NFL for the upcoming 2011 season.  It is difficult to see what could stand in the way of this team’s success apart from a slew of injuries.

Kenny Britt

If we set aside all the off-field issues and pretend that Britt would play in all 16 games, I would have him as a top 15 wide receiver this season.  Now he will be facing some disciplinary actions and I expect him to see a four game suspension and have it reduced down to two.  He was not likely to crack my top 20 at WR given Jake Locker looked to be the starting QB for this seasuon but now that Matthew Hasselbeck is in Tennessee, Britt has a QB that can accurately and reliably hit an open receiver.  Last season, when Britt was on the field, he looked like a man among boys in what was otherwise a very pedestrian passing attack. Britt got hurt in week 8 and did not return until week 14, but despite missing all this time to injury, he still amassed 775 yards and 9 TDs.  Most impressive to me was how much more successful the Titans were with him on the field.  The first 7 games of the season were all played with Britt in the lineup and the Titans were sitting at 5-2.  Starting the week that Britt got hurt, the Titans slid on a 6 game losing streak.  This was more to do with poor QB play from Rusty Smith and Kerry Collins, but Britt is by far the best receiving threat the Titans have on their roster and defenses are forced to keep 8 in the box in an effort to contain Chris Johnson.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cards were in a tough spot this offseason.  They wanted to do everything they could to make Larry Fitzgerald happy, so that he would not leave the team after the 2011 season.  In order to do that, they needed to get him a QB.  The draft did not provide this for them, but a trade with Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb did.  He cost them Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2^nd round pick, but you don’t often get a potential franchise QB cheap, so it was worth the risk.  DRC was expendable after the drafting of Patrick Peterson and in the sub-par NFC West; the Cards are playoff contenders again.

Donovan McNabb

I don’t think the Vikings are going to be in the running for the division title, but with Adrian Peterson carrying the load and a solid defense to keep the offense on the field, McNabb is able to prove that he was not the problem in Washington last season.  Losing Sidney Rice hurts but with Roy Williams, Johnny Knox and Devin Hester at receiver, McNabb has a better receiving corp than many of his pro bowl seasons in Philly.  Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect McNabb to be more than a QB2, but Vikings fans can be happy to have someone who can potentially take them back to the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

If you are familiar with me, you know I am a big Bills fan.  I might be just excited for my team here, but Buffalo made two very nice acquisitions this week in Free Agency. Unfortunately, Buffalo lost Paul Posluszny early in the Free Agency period to Jacksonville, but Pos is a better 4-3 middle linebacker than he is ILB in the 3-4 and since the Bills are still adjusting their personnel to suit the new scheme, this won’t likely hurt too bad.  Especially after drafting Kelvin Sheppard and signing Nick Barnett, they should be okay at ILB.  The Bills are also set up to take serious advantage of the new 3^rd-QB rule, or lack there-of.  Buffalo took an explosive playmaker from their division-rival New York Jets when they signed Brad Smith.  Smith can now be placed at the 46^th roster spot (3rd QB) and take snaps from under center.  Previously, using your 3^rd QB before the 4^th quarter meant that your 1^st and 2^nd string QB’s could not re-enter the game.  Buffalo needs excitement brought back to their football team badly and even the idea of CJ Spiller and Brad Smith in a Wildcat formation is pretty darn exciting.  I expect Buffalo to remain a losing football team next season, especially since they are still in the AFC East, but look for a lot more big plays and fantasy points in 2011.

Tavaris Jackson

After Hasselbeck left town for Tennessee, Tavaris Jackson signed a deal to reunite him with his old offensive coordinator in Seattle.  There will be some competition between Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst, but my guess is that his understanding of the offense and his relationship with fellow former Viking and newly acquired Seahawk Sidney Rice makes Jackson the heavy favorite to win the starting job.  Throw in the addition of Zach Miller to the receiving corp for good measure and now Seattle might actually have an offense.  Jackson has a lot of talent and play-making ability so if he was able to work on his down field accuracy and pocket-presence, he may be able to resurrect his career with this opportunity.  In my eyes, it comes down to how consistent Marshawn Lynch can be to take the pressure off the passing game.

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Chris Cooley, TE, WAS - Active
Vernon Davis, TE, SF - Active
Steven Jackson, RB, STL - Active
Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS - Active

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*Game is being played in London

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*Game is being played in London

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Joseph Addai, RB, IND – Active

Jahvid Best, RB, DET – Active

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG – Active

Donald Brown, RB, IND – Inactive

Austin Collie, WR, IND – Active

Pierre Garcon, WR, IND – Active

Peyton Hillis, RB, CLE – Active

Andre Johnson, WR, HOU – Active

Jacoby Jones, WR, HOU – Inactive

Donovan McNabb, QB, WAS – Active

Tony Scheffler, TE, DET – Active

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1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Drew Brees
3. Peyton Manning
4. Philip Rivers
5. Tom Brady
6. Matt Schaub
7. Michael Vick
8. Donovan McNabb
9. Jay Cutler
10. Kyle Orton
11. Chad Henne
12. Carson Palmer
13. Matt Ryan
14. Mark Sanchez
15. Joe Flacco
16. Vince Young
17. Eli Manning
18. Sam Bradford
19. Bruce Gradkowski
20. Alex Smith
21. Matt Hasselbeck
22. Derek Anderson
23. Charlie Batch
24. David Garrard
25. Jimmy Clausen

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Ravens at Steelers

The headliner this week will not be an exciting game for offense fans.  Among the best 2 defensive franchises of the past 10 years meet twice a year in divisional rivalry matches that are typically low scoring.  The only player I think has a good chance at having a big game for fantasy owners is Rashard Mendenhall.  He is currently 4th in the NFL in rushing and while the Ravens are historically fantastic against the run, last week they gave up 144 yards to Peyton Hillis.  There is not comparison between the two backs, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens will not allow another big game like that this week.  You should however be comfortable starting Mendenhall as normal.  Expect 80 yards and a 50% chance at a score.  Ray Rice appears to be on the right track to play Sunday, but given the pain of a deep muscle bruise and a Steelers defense that is playing better than anyone in the league, you can’t expect too much.  Given where you drafted Rice and his ability to break a big play in the passing game you will need to start him regardless.  Stay away from Jay Flacco and where possible, Anquan Boldin.  You will need some pretty great alternatives to leave Boldin on the bench however.

Patriots at Dolphins

This game will help clear up one team from the three way tie at 2-1 atop the AFC East.  The Jets have an easy path to 3-1 with a game against Buffalo, but the Monday night game between the Pats and the Phins should be pretty close.  I like the home team to squeak out a win due to how truly terrible the Patriots defense is and how effective the Dolphins are at controlling the clock at the end of the game.  It is still not known which Patriots RB will have the most value but the Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis is who you want to go with if you are in bye week trouble and reaching deep for someone.  Moss and Welker face an underrated secondary but Moss cannot be sat and Welker still made my top 20.  Neither of the running backs for the Dolphins have been too impressive but running is what the Dolphins do and the Patriots have not been able to stop anyone yet… just out score them.

Redskins at Eagles

Michael Vick’s recent success will finally be overshadowed by the return of Donovan McNabb to Philadelphia.  The Redskins did not play well at all in Week 3 when they lost to last year’s worst team… the Rams.  McNabb is not the issue for the Redskins and will certainly not roll over against his former team.  Santana Moss has and will remain a very valuable WR3 or flex play now that there is a serious play maker throwing to him.  Michael Vick finally has some quality defenses opposite him and his production will level off a bit.  I do expect him to be a top 10 QB as long as he starts simply because if he stops playing well he wont start anymore.  DeSean Jackson is quickly proving that his is still going to be able to be a dynamic weapon without McNabb and Maclin is developing very nicely as a possession receiver and red zone target.  If you own any of these Eagles you are likely going to ride out this wave, at least until it crashes.  Ryan Torain fulfilled the role of sleeper RB in Shanahan’s offense that always seems to crop up at this time whenever he is coaching in this league.  Portis will still be given a few chances to prove he can be effective in a feature role still, but it doesn’t look good and with Torain getting half the work last week I would rather own him than Portis.  You’re not starting either of them until the offense starts playing better again.

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