This year, the elite running back talent is deeper than it has been in recent years.  While most teams are still relying on a duo or trio of backs, there is a surprising number of feature backs to choose from in round one this year. Also, don’t forget to check out my updated RB rankings.

The First Seven

As I see it this season, the first round of every draft should start with seven RBs.  Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner are all established featured weapons in their offense and are too reliable and productive to NOT take as your RB1 if you have the chance.  Minnesota is bound to lean on Peterson while McNabb gets acclimated in his new offensive scheme and even afterwards, I expect AP to be a serious contributor in the receiving game as well because without Sidney Rice the receiving talent is lack-luster at best, making their success depend almost entirely on Peterson. Chris Johnson benefited from the signing of Matthew Hasselbeck because now there is a veteran QB capable of extending drives and converting on third down.  Hasselbeck will need to be respected by defenses and this will open up running lanes for one of the fastest and most elusive playmakers in the league.  I could easily craft an argument in favor of drafting Jamaal Charles number one overall.  Logic is bound to prevail  I feel the loss of Vonta Leach creates an added incentive for the Texans to revert back to a pass-first offense and considerably hurts Foster’s value.  This still leaves him as my #4 back so obviously I am still pretty confident he can be a consistent producer in that offense.  Speaking of Vonta Leach, he is clearing rushing lanes for Ray Rice now and with McGahee in Denver, I expect Rice carrying the ball out of an I-formation will be the goal line plan this season.  In my opinion people are way off on Frank Gore’s value.  New Coach Jim Harbaugh has already said he plans to heavily feature Gore and this includes the passing game, which is significant news for any of you playing in a PPR format.  Lastly, Michael Turner gets just about all the carries in Atlanta’s offense and with Julio Jones helping Roddy White stretch the field, fewer safeties will be able to move up to help slow down Turner.  I do not expect the Falcons to use Turner any less because of the new receiving threat, teams will just be forced to respect the big play more.

The Top 20

Rashard Mendenhall sits at 8^th on my rankings and is the first player I would pass on in favor of Aaron Rodgers or Andre Johnson.  Mendenhall will see quite a few carries but with Big Ben having Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders I expect them to attempt more big plays this season.  MJD slid to 9^th because of the number of miles on his knees and the possibility of a Blaine Gabbert led offense allowing defenses to focus most of their attention to stuffing the run.  LeSean McCoy also cracks the top 10 and would receive a bump up past MJD and Mendenhall for PPR leagues.  Darren McFadden is a little risky as an RB1, but he is at 11^th because of his big play ability and lack of other options for the Raiders offense.  Ahmad Bradshaw is at 13^th after re-signing with the Giants this offseason. Jacobs is still expected to see the goal line and short yardage work, but Bradshaw is the most important player to the Giants offense.  Ryan Grant is being under ranked by most people in my opinion.  I have him at 16^th.  He was a late first round pick in a lot of leagues last season and suffered a fluke injury.  All that time off means he must be dropped some but after a slow start, I think he has a serious chance at becoming a top 10 back again by the end of the season.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is in a significant time-share with Danny Woodhead, but the Law Firm is clearly the one you want to own as he is who will see the goal line work.  Knowshon Moreno was up a few spots before Willis McGahee came into town, but will still see the majority of the carries.  Definitely not on the goal line though.

Backups and Flex Options

This is where I do not want to pick many running backs.  The guys just outside the top 20 are very risky and unproven.  The one young talent with the best chance to succeed is Shonn Greene.  He has a great line in front of him and if he plays well, LT will see a very limited role.  I have significant injury concerns about Jahvid Best and to a lesser extent Ryan Mathews, but they are 23^rd and 21^st in my ranks none-the-less. Daniel Thomas is the top ranked rookie as his physical between the tackles style will be needed and well complimented by Reggie Bush.  Beanie Wells is another injury risk but with Hightower gone, he will get first crack at the lion’s share of the workload.  I don’t expect him to play in all 16 games, but you don’t need him to in order to use him as a flex option or matchup play.  Marshawn Lynch is going to see a lot of carries this season and has a chance to be a solid RB2.  I have watched his career closely as I am a Bills fan and think he is too inconsistent to count on for much, but there was a time when he was a 1,000 yard rusher and it is possible he pulls it off again.  Pierre Thomas is a value-pick at 29^th in the rankings.  I am not a believer that Ingram will be much more than an effective goal line back this season with the awkwardness of the limited offseason and complexity of Sean Payton’s offense.

Sleepers

Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Willis McGahee

Busts

Maurice Jones-Drew, Peyton Hillis, Jahvid Best, Cedric Benson, Felix Jones, Mark Ingram

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It’s time to start laying out my draft strategy for you this season! With no introduction at all, here is my break down of the QB talent pool for 2011!  Check my updated rankings out too!

Top Two

Last season, Michael Vick was BY FAR the best player in the NFL for fantasy owners.  He singlehandedly won games for those of us lucky enough to nab him off waivers when Kevin Kolb got hurt and personally, he propelled my injury riddled, fairly average team into the super bowl.  Vick outscored the next closest QB while only playing in 12 games on the season.  Aaron Rodgers has been a picture of consistency for fantasy owners over the past three seasons as a starter and because of this steady production as well as missing just one game over these three years locks him in as my top QB overall. I won’t be surprised if Vick outscores Rodgers again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vick missed 4 or more games to injury either.  This is a classic risk-reward conundrum and in a year with a shortened offseason due to the lockout, I just can’t take that much risk and will be taking Rodgers over Vick all season long.

Elite Eight

There is plenty of other very reliable weekly starters at the QB position even if you miss out on one of the top two guys.  These “second tier” QBs include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and Tony Romo.  The last two guys still have some work to do to prove that they are an elite NFL QB but for fantasy owners, statistics are enough and these guys get them.  Schaub has Owen Daniels back at 100% to go along with Andre Johnson and a formidable rushing attack.  Vonta Leach left town for Baltimore this offseason, which will lessen the effectiveness of the running game and with all his receivers back to 100% healthy, look for Schaub to rebound this season and put up very considerable stats. Jason Garrett taking over as head coach gave the Cowboys a spark last season and they didn’t even have Romo in at QB.  There are tons of receiving options at Romo’s disposal this season and the Cowboy’s pass defense is vulnerable to the big play.  In order for Dallas to win games, they need to air-it-out early and often and while I am not sure the Boys can make it to the playoffs from their division… there is little doubt in my mind that Romo can help you make it to the playoffs.  Manning and Brady’s teams each drafted some help for their offensive line and Brady got a new receiver in Chad Ochocinco this off season.  I don’t think rookie offensive lineman make for much of a statistical boost for these two savvy veterans, but Ochocinco will prove to be a valuable deep threat to stretch the field and open up passing lanes for Brady.  Brady stays put in my rankings at 4^th but since the Colts were unable to add any receiving talent, I have to drop Manning below Rivers. Brees was hindered last season because of the injuries to the Saints’ running backs but with the addition of Mark Ingram, the team finally has a tough, hard-nosed, short yardage back in their toolbox to help convert on third and short and extend drives. And last, but certainly not least, is Philip Rivers.  The Chargers missed the playoffs last season largely due to special teams blunders and stupid mistakes that cost them games. These weren’t made by Rivers.  Philip is as risk-free as it comes with no games missed due to injury in the past five seasons and 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons under his belt. This year Vincent Jackson will be a part of the team all season and if Antonio Gates can stay healthy, Rivers WILL have a great year.

The Best of the Rest

If you are considering taking a QB outside my top 8, you might want to consider waiting until round 9 or 10 and just ensure you get a quality back up as well.  There might be a lot of talent worth investing in early, but some owners have to be left out.  Ben Roethlisberger leads this group of signal callers who I will be passing on come draft day.  He is the one standout that may be worth a 6^th or 7^th round pick, but he is still on a run-heavy offense and with two of his best options (Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders) being deep threats, I am also concerned about the level of consistency Ben will bring to the table. A lot of people are high on Josh Freeman this year too, but with such a young team… a lot can go wrong.  For what it is worth, I think Freeman is the real deal and he will continue to develop into a franchise QB.  With that said I am still not going to have him on a single one of my teams. This is because I am worried about his consistency if Blount is hurt and the offense becomes one dimensional or if Williams misses time, who will pick up his slack and make the big play? To me, the biggest value pick at QB is Joe Flacco at 12^th.  Flacco has been in development and in a lot of ways he is the best of the young QB talent in the NFL (except probably Matt Ryan).  Frustratingly for fantasy-owners, this has not been enough to make Flacco into an elite fantasy player.  Ray Rice is the feature of the offense and while he is a VERY good pass catcher, the lack of big play receiver has meant few long passing plays and even fewer 20+ fantasy point games for Flacco owners. The Ravens re-committed to their run game in the offseason with the signing of Vonta Leach and Ricky Williams but as Flacco settles into his role and builds report with his receivers, I certainly don’t expect him to dip in production.  He is certainly a great option as the last of the starting QB’s to come off my board on draft day.

Sleepers

Matt Schaub, Josh Freeman, Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb

Busts

Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith, Eli Manning

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Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have no QB and Larry Fitzgerald has said that he will not stay in Arizona if they cannot take the QB position seriously this season and get him someone to throw him the ball.  They opted not to draft a QB with the 5^th overall pick, but instead they snatched up the safest and among the most talented players in this year’s draft.  LSU’s Patrick Peterson was projected by a lot of analysts to go #1 overall to the Panthers earlier in the offseason, but he fell to Ken Whisenhut at #5. Peterson will be an impact player and shut-down cornerback in this league.  He has the intangibles to be as good as Darrelle Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha, but it will be up to Ray Horton (Cardinals Defensive Coordinator) to groom him and get him to realize this potential.  In the second round, the Cardinals continue to ignore the available QB talent (though it was pretty well picked over by this time) to take Ryan Williams, RB from Virginia Tech. I was surprised here as Williams was not a name I was very familiar with, and with Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower and LaRod Stephens-Howling all on the roster already… I did not expect to see another RB taken.  There is no concealing that Wells was a disappointment, but Hightower still has some gas in the tank and Stephens-Howling is a playmaker who they like to have touch the ball around 5 times a game. And in the third round the Cards took TE Robert Housler, an athletic pass catcher that reminds me a little bit of Tony Moeaki.  Housler has very good leaping ability to go with his reliable hands and considerable speed.  It still all depends on which QB the Cards get from free agency, but Housler has a chance to make an impact in his rookie season.  Taking a QB with their picks would have been a mistake and if the trades didn’t work in their favor, the Cards made a solid, disciplined decision to wait on taking a QB of the future.  Solid draft for the Cards.

My Grade: B

St. Louis Rams

I expected St. Louis to take a RB and WR early in this draft.  Sam Bradford progressed quickly and was very close to getting his team into the playoffs in his rookie campaign.  The Rams do not have a #1 caliber WR and Steven Jackson is quickly running out of gas in the tank after many seasons carrying the entire Rams offense.  Unfortunately for St. Louis, Julio Jones was long gone by the 14^th pick and there was no reason to reach that far up on Mark Ingram, so the Rams took Robert Quinn from UNC.  Quinn is a bit of a developmental prospect, but I expected him to be off the board by this pick as his 6’4’’ 265 lb frame and the potential he showed in college shows that he could be one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL before long. Initially he will be part of a rotation with Chris Long and James Hall, but after one or two seasons, I expect Quinn to surpass both of these guys in production. In round two, the Rams took TE Lance Kendricks from Wisconsin.  Kendricks is 6’3’’ and also has more than enough speed to be an impact player in the passing game.  Young QB’s tend to lean on their TE in a sticky situation so hopefully for Bradford, Kendricks is able to start Week 1.  In rounds 3 and 4, the Rams finally address the WR need.  They took Austin Pettis and Greg Salas consecutively, but neither guy is a #1 receiver.  The Rams seem to have an army of slot receivers and no one capable of getting open against the opponent’s top cornerback.  I like that the Rams didn’t reach for a player that shouldn’t have been drafted yet, but I would have liked to see them get involved in some of the trades going on to try and fill some of their bigger needs.

My Grade: C+

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco made the first eyebrow raising pick in the draft this year with the first round selection of DE Aldon Smith.  Smith is an explosive pass rusher off the edge and once he adjusts to playing from a 2-point stance, he will prove to be a key part of Jim Harbaugh’s new defense.  The 9ers do have questions at QB and DB, but I think they are going to re-sign Alex Smith for one more season, which allowed them to take a more developmental QB in the second round.  That QB is Colin Kaepernick.  Colin is a dual-threat, with the ability to take off and run as demonstrated from his “pistol” offense that he ran in Nevada.  Kaepernick was one of my favorite QB prospects in this draft and was probably the only one that wasn’t selected too early by their new team.  In round three, the 49ers took DB Chris Culliver from South Carolina.  He is a bit of a ball-hawk and a versatile one at that.  I expect Culliver to compete for time in nickel packages.  Overall, the 49ers stayed true to their board and were able to do a good job addressing their biggest needs early in the draft.  Very solid draft and a great start for new coach Jim Harbaugh.

My Grade: B+

Seattle Seahawks

Head Coach Pete Carroll tore this team down last season to rebuild it in his image.  It proved to be a success as he took his team to a playoff win against the Saints despite being just 7-9 in the regular season.  Russell Okung proved to be a great pick for the future and Carroll wanted to give him some support, so with his first two picks this year, he took James Carpenter (round 1) and John Moffitt (round 3).  Carpenter is a VERY versatile player that can play at guard or tackle on either side of the ball.  He will provide stability to the line in the event of injuries and will likely be a solid starting offensive lineman for years to come.  Moffitt is a bit more of a developmental prospect, he probably will not see the field unless there are injury problems in his rookie season.  Time will tell whether or not he has the tools to be a starter in this league, but he sure has some great young talent around him to develop with and learn from.  This wasn’t a very sexy draft for the Seahawks, but the offensive line is crucial to sustained success in this league and soon there will be a new QB in Seattle that will need protecting.

My Grade: B-

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Chicago Bears

The Bears were the surprise NFC North Champions last season, even with the Super Bowl Champions in their division.  They played exceptionally on defense and even found a balance between the rushing and passing attacks on offense during last regular season.  Unfortunately for Bears fans, they were not able to overcome their mediocre at best offensive line in the playoffs, but this made it clear where their first pick should go.  With the 29^th overall pick, the Bears took Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin to anchor their line for years to come. Carimi is a prototypical right tackle, but might spend a little time playing at guard on this line next season unless the Bears go after any interior lineman in free agency. I also think that he would do well on the left side after he develops as an NFL athlete, but ideally there will be another tackle added to the roster next year that can play the left side.  In round two with the 53^rd overall pick, Chicago selected Stephen Paea who set the Scouting Combine record on the bench press. He is a bit of a developmental prospect with raw athleticism, but he will excel as a one gap run stopper in the middle of the defensive line in the future. His incredible strength will translate to this role in the Bears’ defense that loves to blitz up the middle.  Paea will eat up at least two blockers and should allow pressure by the linebackers through the middle. In round three, the Bears took DB Chris Conte from California.  Conte is an incredibly versatile defensive back that filled in at just about every spot during his time in college before transitioning to safety in his final season.  He will make an immediate impact on special teams and with the veterans on defense to help him develop, he will find a spot somewhere in the starting lineup before too long. I would have liked to see the Bears take an interior offensive lineman that would allow Carimi to play at right tackle, but Paea will be an impact player and clearly the Bears were confident in his abilities. Also, they opted not to take a playmaker at WR. I am not jumping for joy at this draft, but I think they should be running the ball more anyways and there is plenty of free agent talent available at receiver, so all hope is not lost.

My Grade: C+

Detroit Lions

Many people are very big on this year’s draft for the Lions, but I am not one of them.  They added some great players to their team, but ignored their biggest need in the secondary. Prince Amukamara fell past Houston and seemed to be a lock for Detroit who continues to lose games because they cannot contain the big play.  I will admit that I had Fairley higher on my draft board than Prince, but it was because of how well Fairley fits into Tennessee’s defensive scheme and how big of a reach it was for them to take Locker 8th overall. Fairley along with Suh at DT will give the Lions a VERY stout run defense and will obviously make the pass rush more effective, but this is not enough for a secondary that was average at best last season statistically. There were two picks in the second round for Detroit and both were spent on offensive skill positions.  First the Lions selected Titus Young from Boise State.  Young is just 5’1’’ 174 lbs, but he has the speed to be a very impactful deep threat as well as return man.  He is so fast he makes it very difficult for teams to not provide safety help to the corner that is covering him and with Calvin Johnson on the other side of the field, one of these guys will be in man-coverage more often that opposing defenses would like. The second pick in round two for the Lions was spent on Mikel Leshoure who is much better between the tackles than Jahvid Best, who is almost certain to serve as a 3^rd down / change of pace back from here on out.  Passing on Amukamara was a mistake, but they made considerable improvements to their team and stayed true to their draft board.  They won’t get an A from me, but I don’t hate their choices.

My Grade: B+

Green Bay Packers

The Super Bowl Champion Packers had needs on both sides of the line as well as WR and DB.  They were able to address these concerns for the most part in this draft, by selecting someone at each of these positions in the first four rounds with defensive lineman being the only exception.  In the first round, they took Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State. This isn’t a pick that is going to excite too many fans, but he has the versatility to play anywhere on the line, but would ideally be a great RT of the future for the Packers opposite Chad Clifton. In round two the Packers took Randall Cobb from Kentucky, who is a speedy playmaker that could fill in for James Jones, who is looking to enter free agency after his fourth season.  In round three the Packers made what was, to me, a puzzling selection with RB Alex Green from Hawaii.  Green is a big, punishing runner with great hands out of the backfield. To me, the Packers are a passing team with Ryan Grant at RB and James Starks as a change of pace back.  If I was coaching the Packers, Green would just be a goal line back at best… but don’t be surprised if he has a much larger role than this starting in his rookie season. I am not sure how much better they got with this draft, but they filled gaps that will be opened by departing free agents and added depth along both offensive and defensive line.  And after all, they were Super Bowl Champions last year, so they will certainly still be able compete for a chance to repeat next season.

My Grade: B

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings only had two selections in the first three rounds this season and with their first round pick, they made the second most questionable selection in this year’s draft by taking Christian Ponder 12^th overall.  Ponder has a lot of the intangibles that you want to see in a franchise QB and came from a pro-style offense.  It will take the Vikes a little time to adjust their personnel and playbook to suit the quick timing attack that suits Ponder’s strengths, but with great risk comes great reward… so only time will tell how good this pick was. He might be in over his head if he has to start week 1, especially considering the lockout, but there is certainly a nice running back at his disposal to help him move the ball down the field.  In round two the Vikes took the draft’s top Tight End, Kyle Rudolph from Notre Dame.  Rudolph is likely to assume a primarily blocking role and for good reason, he might as well be a tackle… judging by the size of him.  I would have thought the Vikes would look to add a possession receiver or grab an impact player on defense with this pick, but having a TE tandem like Rudolph and Shiancoe can provide one hell of a crutch for a young QB.  Minnesota’s saving grace was that they were able to address areas where they lacked depth with their 6 picks in rounds 6 and 7.  With reaching for Ponder AND ignoring positions of need to take Kyle Rudolph, I can’t grade Minnesota well, but if Ponder becomes a successful NFL QB, I’ll be happy to have been wrong!

My Grade: C

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Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are never satisfied with anything but success and with the spotlight always bright for the Cowboys, there is almost always a focus on the skill positions.  I was very happy to see that Dallas was able to recognize their needs on the offensive line and front seven of their defense.  In the first round, with the 9^th overall pick, Jason Garrett grabbed a new franchise left tackle to protect Romo and bolster their running game which was their Achilles heel all last season.  Tyron Smith is 6’5’’ 307lbs and while he has some weaknesses in his game, he is a freakish athlete that should be able to play in this league for more than a few years.  In round two, Dallas took what many believe to be among the biggest steals of the draft.  Bruce Carter, LB from UNC, is 6’2’’ 241 lbs and is a very quick, explosive player.  I expect him to start out as the weak-side ILB for his first few seasons, but look for him to transition to the strong side (or even OLB) depending on team need and scheme in the future. Personally, I was not too high on Carter but I do think that the Cowboys benefited from him sliding into the 2^nd round, where even I agree he was a bargain despite his injury.  I did not get the 3^rd round selection of DeMarco Murray, because a team with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice shouldn’t really need to take a change of pace back this early in the draft. The 4^th round pick of David Arkin was their best in my opinion.  Arkin was a standout player for Missouri St. and is able to play at either guard spot or center.  He may need some time to develop into a reliable starter, but he will add depth and stability to the interior of their offensive line for years to come. The Cowboys got better at the positions they needed to most, in the trenches.  They needed to address their inability to run the ball last season given all the talent and depth they have at the RB position and with two offensive lineman taken in the first four rounds they have done that.

My Grade: B+

New York Giants

The Giants won round one of this year’s draft when they took Prince Amukamara with the 19^th overall pick.  I have written about how big of a mistake it was for Houston to ignore this guy and will do the same for Detroit when I grade their division, but the Giants were able to land this future lock-down corner.  This is the perfect place for Prince to mature as there is MUCH less pressure for him to be an immediate success amidst the formidable defensive secondary that New York already had.  He will see less playing time, but should benefit from having veterans around him to show him the ropes.   In the second round, the Giants again took the best player available at a position of strength for the team.  Marvin Austin has the talent to be drafted in the top half of round one, but fell due to being a part of the group of UNC players who were suspended for last season.  He is an extremely large and dominant player on the interior of the offensive line and while he, like Amukamara, will become part of a rotation, Austin should make an immediate impact as well.  In the third round, the Giants took Jerrel Jernigan as a slot receiver and kick returner.  Jernigan is a shift route runner that should develop into a very solid possession receiver for Eli.  His impact might not be felt on offense this season, but expect this scrappy player to make an impact on a lot of special teams plays in his rookie season.  Jerry Reese and the Giants did a great job of sticking with the best players available and because of that, the Giants will be a FAR more competitive team this coming season.

My Grade: A+

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles had 2 picks in every round after the third (and one in rounds one through three as well of course) and made the most of this chance to add some quality depth at key positions.  In round one, Andy Reid stayed true to his usual standard of drafting his lineman with his high draft picks to take Danny Watkins from Baylor.  Watkins played tackle in college, but will likely be transitioning to guard for Philly who is trying to protect Michael Vick and open up holes for LeSean McCoy in the run game. Watkins is a big physical and relentless blocker that fits the Eagles style of play perfectly.  This was a great pick and exactly what the Eagles needed most in my opinion with two guards entering the free agent market.  Round two was more of a head scratcher for me as they reached pretty far up to select Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple.  Jarrett is a great fit for the Eagles as he is a very physical and hard hitting safety, which they were looking for. However, most scouts had a 3^rd or 4^th round projection for him and I would have liked to see the Eagles move back in the second round and try and acquire an extra pick in the later rounds.  In round three, the Eagles selected Curtis Marsh from Utah State.  Marsh is a press-coverage cornerback with great mobility and fluid hip-movement.  He is a developmental project, but could very well start contributing in dime and nickel packages right away.  They got considerably better on their o-line and secondary in this draft and with a team full of playmakers already on the roster, they were able to pick up some key players in needed positions.

My Grade: B

Washington Redskins

The Redskins are in rebuilding mode and despite having a QB situation that is murky at best; Shanahan selected two defensive linemen in the first two rounds.  Ryan Kerrigan was taken with the 16^th overall selection after Washington traded down to pick up an additional 2^nd round selection.  Kerrigan was a highly disruptive pass rusher during his career at Purdue and should make an immediate impact paired with Bryan Orakpo.  The 9^th pick of the 2^nd round was spent selecting Jarvis Jenkins out of Clemson.  Jenkins is a very large interior defensive lineman who can play in either the three of five techniques.  He is especially gifted at defending the run by eating up blockers without surrendering his gap.  Many times throughout his college career, a third blocker was needed to move this guy.  The Redskins traded back 4 times in the 2^nd round with their extra selection and were able to get an additional 4 picks in the later rounds.  In round three the Skins took Leonard Hankerson from Miami, who is a big physical WR that has the skill set to be a #1 receiver for this offense.  He isn’t the fastest guy on the field, but neither is TO and he has caught his fair share of touchdowns. In the fourth round Shanahan drafted himself a running back that fits the style of runner that he has worked so well with, in the past.  Roy Helu from Nebraska is a one-cut runner that excels between the tackles and could earn a starting job for Shanahan by the end of his rookie season.  Like I said, the Skins are rebuilding and they are bringing 12 rookies onto their roster to compete for a spot on the squad.  When you need to make a lot of changes, sometimes the best thing you can do is clean house.

My Grade: A-

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Denver Broncos

The Broncos had the NFL’s 2^nd worst rush defense.  They lacked playmakers in their front seven to help Elvis Dumervil disrupt opposing offenses.  They allowed an absurd 154.6 yards per game on the ground and despite breakout seasons from a variety of offensive players… the Broncos were unable to finish better than 4-12.  This staggering disappointment for a team averaging 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game on offense led to the firing of head coach Josh McDaniels, who really gave this team a boost in his first couple seasons.  Unfortunately, each season ended with a meltdown and no playoff appearance, so now John Fox is going to try his hand at running this Broncos franchise. Denver held the third overall draft pick and went with the best pure-pass rusher that this draft had to offer.  Von Miller is almost a sure-fire success at the NFL level and while it is hard to criticize the pick at all, I fully expected them to take Marcell Dareus to fix their issues with the running game.  This however, is not the way John Fox operates.  When he arrived in Carolina, he drafted Julius Peppers to build his defense around.  This is the role that Miller will fill in the John Fox scheme and we should expect him to flourish.  The Broncos ended up with two 2^nd round picks as well, taking Rahim Moore (FS) and Orlando Franklin (OL).  Moore is a great player and a good value where he was selected, but I do not feel that the need in the secondary was great enough to warrant this pick.  Taking Miller in the first meant this pick needed to be spent on the defensive line and no DL was taken by Denver until round 7.  At the end of the day, the Broncos got players that will contribute, but they did a poor job of matching picks with needs.  I would not expect to see a winning football team in Denver next season, since they are still unlikely to be able to stop the run.  I would also expect to see some long-time Broncos leave the team once the lock out is lifted as the Broncos try to rebuild under their new coach.

My Grade: B-

Kansas City Chiefs

The 2010 season was a breakout year for the entire Chiefs organization.  They led the league in rushing with a two-headed attack of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, with Dwayne Bowe finally being a playmaker and finishing the season with 15 touchdowns (just 3 behind the league’s leader, Arian Foster).  Going into this draft, the Chiefs needed to get impact players who could make a difference immediately. They managed to do that.  They drafted Jonathan Baldwin late in the first round to be a compliment to Bowe, as he was the only viable receiving threat they had at the receiver position.  Baldwin is 6’4’’, 228 lbs. and has incredible athletic ability for someone of that size.  The biggest knock on him thus far has been consistency, but if Haley and the Chiefs were able to get Dwayne Bowe’s act together, Baldwin should be able to benefit greatly from what this organization has to teach him.  Round two led to the selection of Rodney Hudson, a strong, intense interior offensive lineman.  This is really the last drastic need on offense for the Chiefs, who are now ready to go as far as Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel can take them.  With two picks in round three, the Chiefs finally addressed the defensive side of the ball.  With the 70^th overall pick, the Chiefs took Justin Houston, a very talented pass rusher from the OLB spot.  He slid primarily due to character issues, but the third round was clearly a steal for a player with this amount of pure talent.  I am very big on this draft for the Chiefs, who stayed disciplined and followed their draft board to get the players that will help them try and repeat as division champions.

B+

Oakland Raiders

I have to keep telling myself to just grade the draft here, due to how absurd the firing of Tom Cable was to me.  Admittedly, the Raiders are a franchise that demands success immediately… but they got it.  The drafting of JaMarcus Russell turned the Raiders into a punch line for a few seasons, but without him Cable took a fairly mediocre team and swept this division with it.  Playoffs or not, this was an impressive feat and makes you almost a shoe-in for a playoff run the next season.  Cable built the team to win in the AFC West and it did, so why get rid of him?  See, here I go again… back to the draft!  In round two Oakland got themselves a tough interior lineman to open up holes between the tackles for Darren McFadden when they took Stefan Wisniewski.  In the third round Al Davis did what he does, drafted a speedster with incredible physical attributes.  Defensive back Demarcus Van Dyke was among the fastest defensive backs at the combine and surely got Al Davis’ attention there.  This pick makes sense, because of the unpredictable nature of the Nnamdi Asomugha contract and the lockout combined.  I expect Asomugha to leave the team and there to be a big hole in the Raider secondary as a result.  Hopefully Van Dyke isn’t too much of a developmental prospect, because he could be needed right away.  The Raiders did not have a round 1 pick, but even so, they did very little to help themselves immediately… apart from drafting Wisniewski.

D+

San Diego Chargers

For a team that is a contender EVERY year, sometimes missing the playoffs is a good thing.  With the 18^th overall pick, the Chargers made one of the better first round selections when they took Corey Liuget from Illinois.  He is 6’2’’ 298 lbs and is going to be an effective run-stopper in this league.  The thing that really sets him apart as an interior d-lineman is his ability to contribute on pass rushing scenarios as well.  Liuget is a factor on all 4 downs and should anchor the front seven of San Diego for years to come.  Round two saw the Chargers pick twice and to my surprise both picks were also on the defensive side of the ball.  The Chargers added Marcus Gilchrist (DB) and Jonas Mouton (LB) to the roster with expectations that each will contribute on special teams.  I think Gilchrist has a chance to make the field on defense immediately however in nickel and dime packages and potentially even at safety, should there be any injuries through the course of the season.  Mouton has exceptional speed for a man his size and should immediately see the field on kickoff and kick return teams, but with the level the Charger defense played at last season, I just can’t see him playing a significant role on the defensive side of the ball for a little while. I was surprised to see no receivers taken by San Diego this year, but I guess the Special Teams was really what doomed them and Phillip Rivers will find SOMEONE to catch passes (Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson sound good enough?).  Not a great draft in my opinion, but they didn’t need to have one, they are still Super Bowl contenders next season.

My Grade: C+

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Houston Texans

The Texans made what I believe to be a critical error in the first round when they passed on Prince Amukamara with their 11^th overall pick.  This is not at all a slight on JJ Watt, who will be a successful defensive end in Wade Phillips’ new scheme. The Texans allowed 4,280 yards through the air last season, just 261 yards off of the record for worst in NFL history.  Amukamara is a shut down corner that has proven to be consistent and durable over his two seasons as a starting corner back in Nebraska.  His list of accomplishments includes being a 2010 First-Team All-American and 2010 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. I do not think an acceptable solution for such a terrible secondary is to upgrade the pass rush and rely on 3^rd and 4^th round selections (Brandon Harris and Rashad Carmichael) to become a starting CB in Peyton Manning’s division. Again, time will show that Watt and 2^nd round pick Brooks Reed are quality players along the front 7 and will provide an effective and highly disruptive pass rush for many years.  But, for this season, apart from signing Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency (whenever that occurs), the Texans are going to continue to allow too many big plays for their offense to compete with. And it should go without saying that for THIS franchise, this draft will be judged on the impact it has on making the Texans making the post season next year.

My Grade: D+

Indianapolis Colts

This was a solid draft for the Colts, nothing flashy… but with their first pick they took Anthony Castonzo (6’7’’ 311 lbs) to be a bookend left tackle for the remainder of Peyton Manning’s career and likely the start of the next guy’s too.  This is a smart choice for Bill Polian and the Colts considering there was a slight disturbance in the timing of the Colts’ offense this past season.  I thought the Colts would attack the wide receiver and/or running back positions as Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai’s careers start to rapidly deteriorate, but Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie(if he can stay healthy)  and Donald Brown will have to suffice until then…  But, mostly because in round two Peyton’s offensive line got another new bookend tackle for the right side in 6’4’’ 317 lb. Ben Ijalana.  Ben will take a little time to reach his full potential, but for now he will provide depth to the tackle position and should allow for Manning to let his pass routes develop and stay on his feet until retirement.   The rest of the Colts’ picks were mostly unexciting, I was not a big fan of 4^th round pick Delone Carter, RB from Syracuse, but he is likely to see at least a little playing time in the rotation since Donald Brown, Joseph Addai and Javarris James all made the field last season.  Bottom line here is the Colts did not need much to remain divisional favorites and they got it, with the only exception being a ball hawk for their secondary… but free agency could still solve that problem.  I am not so sure they can make another playoff run without a trusted running back to run the ball, but Manning can fill a lot of gaps and he sure knows how to demand the most from his teammate.

My Grade: A-

Jacksonville Jaguars

I am on record as not being a David Garrard fan; I have called him an average player and said that each year with him at QB is one of abandoned potential for the Jags.  This seems harsh, but it has proven to be true again and again.  So to me, the decision to move up and take Blaine Gabbert with the 9^th overall pick was a solid one.  You cannot compete with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub by continuing to stick by a guy that has trouble winning in big games.  Average won’t cut it anymore and since Gabbert was the consensus top-qb for most analysts and teams, the fact that the Jags were able to take him as the third overall QB in the draft could prove to be a steal.  With the Jags’ 2^nd pick (which was in round 3), they took William Rackley out of Lehigh University, a small school in Pennsylvania. Rackley was a dominant tackle in college, with his limited competition.  But, in the pros he will likely transition to an interior lineman and his strong fundamentals and work ethic should prove enough to make for a smooth transition. The last pick I want to discuss was yet another small-school standout, Cecil Shorts from Mount Union.  Shorts went with the 17^th pick of the 4^th round and is a very adept route runner with great hands.  I worry some about his speed after only run a 4.59 40 yard dash at the combine, but the quickness he showed in the 3-cone drill leaves me with little doubt he will be able to create separation and get open for some big plays down the field.  It will take a little time before he might be able to compete as a number one wide receiver, but he could prove to be a difference maker right away in an offense that needs a consistent receiver.

My Grade: B

Tennessee Titans

This years’ draft was entertaining and different than any other year due to free agency not occurring until afterwards… Each team varied up its strategy, but few made a move as head-scratching as when the Titans selected Jake Locker with the 8^th overall pick.  Blaine Gabbert was still on the board and a much more complete prospect at the QB position.  Tennessee is fresh coming off of a bad experience with a mobile quarterback and selected another one with an accuracy problem.  Locker excels with his intangibles, such as leadership and work ethic, but if he was the one the Titans were targeting, why not trade back and wait for Gabbert to come off the board before you reach on a player that would likely have stayed on the board for 10-15 picks? There was only one pick made by Tennessee that I really liked and that was when they took Akeem Ayers in round 2.  Ayers is 6’3’’ 254 lbs and will join the rotation of defensive ends for the Titans.  His size coupled with his burst speed could turn him into a dominant edge rusher from the 3-4, but I think of him more as a first and second down run stuffer with enough versatility to still be a threat should the opposing offense drop back to pass.  I am not sure he can become a 4 down player, but time will tell as the Titans need a couple seasons to rebuild around their new franchise QB.  The third and fourth round picks were focused on stuffing the run with the addition of 6’1’’ 300 lb. Jurrell Casey at DT and 6’1’’ 238 lb. Colin McCarthy to play ILB.  I am not wild about either prospect, but they each have a fast motor and McCarthy should be able to contribute immediately on special teams.

My Grade: C-

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Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is in a difficult spot as a franchise and this year’s draft was pivotal.  The Ravens’ have elite talent on offense for the first time in a while, but they lacked one weapon last year, a deep threat.  Anquan Boldin was a great acquisition for the Ravens offense, but without a speedy vertical threat on the outside to stretch the field and a draw safety help over the top, he was just being double covered and prevented from impacting the game the way they had hoped.  Torrey Smith was drafted in the 2^nd round to be that weapon and at 6’1’’ 204 lbs he is explosive enough to get the job done as well as contribute in the return game.  In round 1, Jimmy Smith was drafted to join the Ravens’ experienced and veteran-led defense.  He will have ample time to perfect his craft with players like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to show him the ropes as well as being talented enough to start contributing immediately.  Baltimore made significant improvements, but the entire success of this draft is up to whether or not Torrey Smith or Tandon Doss (another speedy WR taken in round 4) is able to stretch the field and give the offense the vertical threat it needs to be both well-balanced and explosive.

My Grade: B+

Cincinnati Bengals

Of all the teams that drafted a QB in this year’s draft, Cincinnati got the best deal of them all.  Andy Dalton is from a spread style offense, but seems to have all the off-the-field intangibles that you want from a future franchise QB.  In the first round the Bengals also grabbed the top WR in this year’s draft. AJ Green is a very polished receiver that seems a sure thing to be success at the NFL level, but I do not think the Bengals made the right decision here.  The season before last, the Bengals were a run-first offense that gave roughly 30 carries per game to Cedric Benson.  In that season, they won the division and swept all three divisional opponents.  This is no small feat considering that Pittsburgh and Baltimore are in the division.  After that, they picked up Terrell Owens off free agency, prioritized the passing game and finished 4-12… behind the Cleveland Browns who went through three different starting QBs over the course of the season.  To me, it’s a no-brainer… run the ball.  I would have liked to see the Bengals trade the pick away (something tells me Atlanta was willing to pay a ton to trade up and take a WR) and draft an in interior offensive lineman to improve their running game.

My Grade: B-

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were one of the bigger winners in this year’s draft.  Their biggest need was a receiver for Colt McCoy to develop along side, but that was far from their only area of concern.  Cleveland had a chance for one of the premier receivers in this year’s draft but made the smart choice to trade the pick away to Atlanta. In the trade they acquired first, second and fourth round picks in this draft as well as a first and fourth round pick in next year’s draft.  So, despite missing out on an elite talent at their biggest position of need, the Browns enabled themselves to rebuild as a franchise quicker and more effectively. With their first round selection, the Browns took Phil Taylor to anchor the center of their defensive line while they transition to a 4-3 scheme.  Taylor is 6’3’’ and 334 lbs. and should make a good replacement for Shaun Rogers.  I would have thought Taylor would have been used more as a traditional NT, but he will certainly still be an effective run-stopper in his new 4-3 scheme. The Browns also had two picks in the 2^nd round and with the first they added an outside pass rusher to their d-line with Jabaal Sheard.  I expect him to start as the right defensive end immediately and be an impact player for quite some time.  The second pick of round two was the playmaking WR that they needed most of all.  They took 6’3’’ 220 lb. Greg Little.  Little showed flashes of big-time playmaking ability in his time at UNC, but was suspended for his final season.  This makes him a bit of a risk, but with risk comes the potential for great reward.  Little has the skill set to potentially be the best receiver taken in this year’s draft, even if the smart money is on AJ Green.

My Grade: A

Pittsburgh Steelers

I am hesitant to criticize a team that historically drafts phenomenally, but I am going to do it anyway.  I thought the Steelers should have drafted a defensive back early and with Aaron Williams still on the board, I really thought they would jump at the chance to take him.  Instead they took themselves a new defensive end to join the rotation of pass rushers that terrorizes opposing quarterbacks.  Cam Heyward is a 6’5’’ 294 lb monster to play in the five-technique and should flourish in this system, but they just needed someone to play cornerback much more and Williams slid much farther than I thought he would, because Prince Amukamara fell past both Houston and Detroit.  Again, in round two, the cornerback position remains unaddressed as they take Marcus Gilbert (6’6’’ 330 lbs.) who I actually like quite a bit as a developmental player.   Gilbert may end up being thrown into a starting right tackle role next season because of his size and mobility, but it will take a couple seasons before he can play on the left side, against all the best pass rushers the league has to offer. In rounds three and four the Steelers take a pair of defensive backs that will compete for time in nickel and dime formations, with Curtis Brown (6’0’’ 185lbs.) and Cortez Allen (6’1’’ 248 lbs.).  Brown is the more athletic of the two and the better for Pittsburgh’s zone scheme, he has the most potential to be a playmaker in the secondary and we should see him on the field much more than Allen.  Time will certainly show that the Steelers got quality players in this draft, but I just can’t help but feel like they need more talented players in the defensive backfield with Troy Polamalu.

My Grade: B-

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Buffalo Bills

Going into the draft the Bills had needs across their defensive front seven, namely at DE and OLB to provide a pass rush.  They also lacked a franchise QB, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick making their offense competitive at the end of last season, the Bills were firm in their stance that they did not need to reach for someone who is not going to the long-term future of the team.  Buffalo took Marcell Dareus with their third overall pick and it is a good one.  Dareus alongside pro bowl DT Kyle Williams should do wonders for the NFL’s worst rush defense. But when they went with Aaron Williams in round two, they lost their chance to get the outside pass rusher that this defense really needs.  To me the chance at a talent like Da’Quan Bowers in the 2^nd round was too good to pass up, but it looks like Donte Whiner is going to be replaced and Williams was a bargain in the 2^nd round after all.  In the third round, the Bills took a very complete ILB with Kelvin Sheppard.  He should help to further boost their run defense, but he won’t make a big impact rushing the passer on third down and that is what kept the Bills from getting an A+.

My Grade: A-

Miami Dolphins

I seem to be higher on what the Dolphins did in this year’s draft than most people are.  Many thought they were going to go after a QB, but they have been a run-first team for quite some time and I thought it was a mistake to get away from that last season.  In round one the Dolphins went with Mike Pouncey, likely to play Center and really bolster the middle of the offensive line and allow their running game to flourish once again.  Another reason why the Dolphins strayed from their traditional run-first attack was the age and durability of their backs.  Ricky Williams will be 34 by the end of this month and Ronnie Brown has been injury prone in the past.  Now Brown has just one season left before the dreaded age of 30 (at least its dreaded for RBs in the NFL) so, to solve this issue the Dolphins drafted Daniel Thomas. Thomas is physical between the tackles and has the ability to grind out the tough short yardage and goal line conversions to keep with the Dolphins’ theme of controlling the clock and pace of the game with their ground attack.  Lastly, in round 4, the Phins drafted speedster Edmond Gates to stretch the field after their running game has forced the 7^th and 8^th defenders into the box.  Bottom line, they made their team better at running the ball to keep Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez off the field and make it so that all Chad Henne has to do is manage the game.  I believe the Dolphins could potentially be in contention for a wild card spot, but that is up to Ronnie Brown’s health and Chad Henne’s game managing skills.

My Grade: B-

New England Patriots

I will never mock a team for picking up a franchise left tackle to keep Tom Brady healthy as he begins to approach the end of his career. I also can’t mock them for drafting a potential heir for Brady as he begins to approach the end of his career (sorry… can’t help myself, I just like saying that SOO much!), but I can dispute the other picks they made.  I’m certainly not a draft expert, but why are they drafting back to back running backs? If you aren’t confident enough in the first one, why did you draft him? Why not just pull the trigger on Mark Ingram if the position is that important to you?  I know they run a committee system in New England, but there is still little reason to burn two picks on such similar backs.  Lastly, I don’t think im alone in assuming that Ras-I Dowling would have been available considerably later, so since Aaron Williams was clearly not their guy, it seems to make sense for the trade-happy Bill Belichick to trade further back in the 2^nd round.  I will admit that they acquired more talent than most teams in the draft, but considering the number of picks they had in the first 3 rounds, I think they could have done MUCH better for themselves.

My Grade: C-

New York Jets

The Jets have had issues staying healthy along the defensive front and with Vernon Gholston being sent packing, the best thing the Jets could have done for their defense was exactly what they did do.  Muhammad Wilkerson is likely to play at defensive end in the Jets’ 3-4 front. Kenrick Ellis, drafted in round 2, was my top pure NT in this draft and he should hopefully provide stability at the center of Rex Ryan’s defense that Kris Jenkins was never able to provide.  After these two picks, the Jets picked only offensive players to help aid the development of Mark Sanchez and provide some depth at running back should anything happen to Shonn Greene or the aging LaDanian Tomlinson.  At the end of the day, the Jets made their football team considerably better with this draft and after making the AFC Championship in back-to-back seasons on the coat tails of their defense, they gave themselves a good chance to improve next season and make it into the Super Bowl.

My Grade: B+

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